Post-Donaldson Trade - Status of Top Prospects

[strumdatjaguar]

Lewis and Kirilloff are blocked by Donaldson, Polanco, Arraez and Sano. Without a trade or an injury, I don’t see an opening for our top prospects. Maybe, Lewis starts more in center field. Maybe Twins plan to trade prospects for pitching at MLB and MiLB level.

[redstorm]

Both players you mentioned can play multiple positions. Also, Cruz is most likely gone after this year so that will free up DH for Sano and give Kirilloff a shot at 1B. Rosario is also only around for this year and next so there’s more openings than you think.

I’m not opposed to your second point of dealing from an area of strength (prospect pool) to acquire high-end pitching, though

[Dman]

 

Lewis and Kirilloff are blocked by Donaldson, Polanco, Arraez and Sano. Without a trade or an injury, I don’t see an opening for our top prospects. Maybe, Lewis starts more in center field. Maybe Twins plan to trade prospects for pitching at MLB and MiLB level.

 

I agree to a degree but there probably is still room if you stare hard enough.  Unless Lewis's bat really takes off he could be three years out  and by then Donaldson could be moved to DH.  In an effort to keep salary down the Twins will probably let Rosario go in two years and Larnach will be ready to take over.  Kirilloff is a bit tougher but he could rotate as first baseman, Left fielder and DH until the Twins decide if Sano is worth the big bucks or not.  SO really there could be room for all of them potentially.  

 

I think there will be more clarity on trading later in the year.  The Twins have outfiled prospects at the lower levels and if Celestino, Badoo, Pearson and Wallner perform well then they might look to trade Kirillof or Larnach or both for pitching if they feel it is needed.

[High heat]

Either Larnach or Kirilloff won’t be in the Twins organization by this time next year. Assuming both are healthy and play relatively well. Hard to keep 2 top 100 prospects at the top of the minors without much room in the majors.

Then again look at late last year when you had to bring in guy from outside the organization because you had so many injuries to the outfield occur.

[goulik]

Starters can turn into bench guys and bench guys can turn into trades and DFAs. I do not see anyone as blocked. If top prospects are ready and pushing their way up, potential casualties on the 26 man roster include Adrianza, Cave and Astudillo.

Then as mentioned there are injuries. Who could have predicted the need to bring up Arraez and his sudden emergence. I just don’t see a problem here...

[Doctor Gast]

 

I agree to a degree but there probably is still room if you stare hard enough.  Unless Lewis's bat really takes off he could be three years out  and by then Donaldson could be moved to DH.  In an effort to keep salary down the Twins will probably let Rosario go in two years and Larnach will be ready to take over.  Kirilloff is a bit tougher but he could rotate as first baseman, Left fielder and DH until the Twins decide if Sano is worth the big bucks or not.  SO really there could be room for all of them potentially.  

 

I think there will be more clarity on trading later in the year.  The Twins have outfiled prospects at the lower levels and if Celestino, Badoo, Pearson and Wallner perform well then they might look to trade Kirillof or Larnach or both for pitching if they feel it is needed.

 

   I totally agree, I don`t think we expect any of the 3 to step up & produce at a ML level although it could happen like it happened to Arraez, although his bat is ready other areas are not, he`ll need to learn on the fly. Lewis could be a super utility player, to help cover CF or SS in case of any injury. All 3 are our future core & hate to lose. We mustn`t trade for the sake of trading. I`d like to give Astudillo a chance to mature at the plate, I believe he could become a valuable asset

[Tomj14]

 

Lewis and Kirilloff are blocked by Donaldson, Polanco, Arraez and Sano. Without a trade or an injury, I don’t see an opening for our top prospects. Maybe, Lewis starts more in center field. Maybe Twins plan to trade prospects for pitching at MLB and MiLB level.

I don't think either are really blocked, there are plenty available innings and at bats for a 4th OF,  that can can also play DH and 1B. If he is hot you can start him at DH once a week, 1B once a week. and couple of times in the outfield, and if he is still better than anybody, well that player moves into 4th outfielder role. Same can be said for Lewis at 3B, 2B, SS and possibly CF, which could be harder to move Donaldson because of salary but Polanco and Arraez can and should be moved in and out if Lewis is better than either.

The only way I see a prospect blocked is if Kirlloff, Lewis and Larnach are all mashing in the minors at the same time, but you than how great is that

[tony&rodney]

Tomj14 - "The only way I see a prospect blocked is if Kirlloff, Lewis and Larnach are all mashing in the minors at the same time, but you than how great is that"

 

I think this will occur this year and will allow for some hard decisions that ultimately improve the team, either through trades or replacement of a current starter or combinations of the two.

[mikelink45]

As I mentioned in another post, in the old Yankee dynasty days they always had good players blocked by good players.  It is the enviable place to be.  Injuries are not devastating that way.  Even last year the Yankees had excellent players ready to step in.

 

No rush.  No one is predicting our big three in position players to be ready this year so mid year or next off season would be the time to move them if they are not needed and if we can get what we want.

 

Ultimately Rosario is going to move on.  It just seems to be the way things are leaning, Adrianza and Gonzales are here one more year and gone (my prediction), Cave might not even make it this year.  Astudillo's story will dim.  That is five openings and does not even take in the potential Buxton injury or any other injury.

 

On the arms side I think Bailey and Hill got one year contracts because they expect Graterol to be ready and Balazovic to be right behind him (I hope so).  Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe are fillers until then.  

 

I would add that Garver came  to MLB at an older age and Jeffers will eventually take over at least the second catcher role. 

[twins_89]

It's fairly easy to see the path forward for Lewis and Kirilloff. Lewis becomes the Twins shortstop with Polanco moving to 2nd and Arraez taking over the super utility role from Gonzalez. Kirilloff is highly likely to take Rosario's spot in the outfield with Eddie getting traded. Larnach is the Twins prospect without a clear path and could well be used as a trade chip for a controllable starting pitcher.

[MNT1996]

 

It's fairly easy to see the path forward for Lewis and Kirilloff. Lewis becomes the Twins shortstop with Polanco moving to 2nd and Arraez taking over the super utility role from Gonzalez. Kirilloff is highly likely to take Rosario's spot in the outfield with Eddie getting traded. Larnach is the Twins prospect without a clear path and could well be used as a trade chip for a controllable starting pitcher.

 

I still think Larnach has a path. Cruz will be gone next season which means Sano can split time between DH and 1B. He can share those duties with Kirilloff. This sets up Larnach to be the LF with Eddie leaving. 

 

So in the end I see:

Larnach - LF

Kirilloff - 1B/DH

Sano - 1B/DH

Lewis - SS

Polanco - 2B

[lukeduke1980]

Arraez was blocked at the beginning of last year.  Play well and things sort themselves out.

[twins_89]

 

I still think Larnach has a path. Cruz will be gone next season which means Sano can split time between DH and 1B. He can share those duties with Kirilloff. This sets up Larnach to be the LF with Eddie leaving. 

 

So in the end I see:

Larnach - LF

Kirilloff - 1B/DH

Sano - 1B/DH

Lewis - SS

Polanco - 2B

 

I just don't see enough plate appearances for everyone. Cruz is going to get most of the DH at bats this season and Donaldson is likely to primarily be a DH by 2023 (gradually spending more and more time there in 2021 and 2022). I fully expect Sano to be at 1B for the vast majority of his time, meaning the opportunities at 1B/DH are going to be fairly limited through 2023. Larnach/Kirilloff both look to be guys who should be everyday players and it doesn't look like there is going to be 2 everyday spots anytime soon.

[jkcarew]

We have no idea where things will be in 2021 or 2022...or by the 2020 stretch run, for that matter. We do know that Lewis OPS'd 665 in single-A last year and that Kirilloff OPS'd 756 in AA. So for now, let's just enjoy the rare treat for Twins fans of going into a season where developing our prospects at the major-league level is what it should be every year...something to be avoided rather than something to build the marketing program around.

 

(Meanwhile there are arguments to trade top prospects. But...at least for now...that has to do with filling current major-league holes, not concerns that the prospects are blocked and wasting their value in the minors.)

[Mr. Brooks]

It's fairly easy to see the path forward for Lewis and Kirilloff. Lewis becomes the Twins shortstop with Polanco moving to 2nd and Arraez taking over the super utility role from Gonzalez. Kirilloff is highly likely to take Rosario's spot in the outfield with Eddie getting traded. Larnach is the Twins prospect without a clear path and could well be used as a trade chip for a controllable starting pitcher.

I'd make Larnach the favorite over Kirilloff if an OF spot were to open up, though I think it's close.

[Danchat]

 

Arraez was blocked at the beginning of last year.  Play well and things sort themselves out.

Well... he was only blocked by Schoop, who was on a cheap one year deal, so I'm not sure how "blocked" that really is.

[DocBauer]

I don't necessarily believe Cruz is gone next season, or that Rosario is gone in 2. Now, that could easily happen.

 

Donaldson or Sano might move to DH, with Lewis playing 3B. Lewis is absolutely in the mix to play SS with Polanco to 2B, or 3B, or Arraez moving to 3B, etc. So many possibilities and you can't discount any of them. Hit and play well, and there will be a place for you.

 

Heck, Lewis could be a super utility player for a year or two before taking over somewhere, and there remains the possibility he could end up in CF.

 

Gut feeling, one of Larnach or Kirilloff is gone via trade a year from now.

 

This is a good problem to have.

[4twinsJA]

RB likes to give his players plenty of rest, a 4th OF could play 100+ games a year. Could see Rooker filling that role since RH bat to rest corner LH bats. Larnach will not be factor this year unless killing it in MiLB, Kirilloff and Rooker should get opportunity. Rooker probably first since has AAA experince and RH bat. Lewis same situation as Larnach, no need to rush does not have to be on 40 man for 2 years. Can see eventual Buxton, Kepler, Rooker, Kiriloff, Sano, Larnach as OF/1B/DH options with Donaldson, Polanco, Arraez, Lewis as INF/DH options, with Garver, Jeffers, and Rorvedt at C/DH/1B. That is if all develop as hoped, Blankenhorn, Raley, Cave, Wade, Miranda, Baddoo and others may be a factor as well. Looks like Twins in good shape for position players the next few years. Pitching remains the biggest question.

[Doctor Gast]

 

I don't necessarily believe Cruz is gone next season, or that Rosario is gone in 2. Now, that could easily happen.

Donaldson or Sano might move to DH, with Lewis playing 3B. Lewis is absolutely in the mix to play SS with Polanco to 2B, or 3B, or Arraez moving to 3B, etc. So many possibilities and you can't discount any of them. Hit and play well, and there will be a place for you.

Heck, Lewis could be a super utility player for a year or two before taking over somewhere, and there remains the possibility he could end up in CF.

Gut feeling, one of Larnach or Kirilloff is gone via trade a year from now.

This is a good problem to have.

Many want to write off Rosario. Yes his defense leaves something to be desired but it hard to replace his bat. I don`t see any prospect able step in & produce better overall than him. I hate to see Cruz leave next year but if he does Rosario is my choice to replace him. Yes, if any team have their heart on Rosario but don`t trade him just for the sake of trading him. All prospects still have things to work on  while they are waiting. Back to trades, I hate to see any of the top 3 go & we must trade away fat not muscle. 

[bobs]

I prefer to think of it as "Organizational Depth"

[Shaitan]

Good teams have good depth and back-ups. This is exactly what you want, and it forces a prospect to be ready when the call-up finally comes. See A.J. Pierzynski and Doug Mientkiewicz for examples. See Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton for players who don't have anybody "blocking" them.

 

[Thrylos]

 

It's fairly easy to see the path forward for Lewis and Kirilloff. Lewis becomes the Twins shortstop with Polanco moving to 2nd and Arraez taking over the super utility role from Gonzalez. Kirilloff is highly likely to take Rosario's spot in the outfield with Eddie getting traded. Larnach is the Twins prospect without a clear path and could well be used as a trade chip for a controllable starting pitcher.

 

More likely, if Lewis's bat arrives at MLB-levels, he replaces Buxton at CF when he becomes a free agent or gets traded. 

 

Kirilloff is way redundant in this organization and the best path forward is to be included in a trade for a front line pitcher some time before the deadline this season.  Left hand throwing first basemen/outfielders with a 780 OPS in AA are not needed in this organization.  Kepler is the one who blocks him as such, and he can actually play CF okay, unlike Kirilloff
 

[Mr. Brooks]

Many want to write off Rosario. Yes his defense leaves something to be desired but it hard to replace his bat. I don`t see any prospect able step in & produce better overall than him. I hate to see Cruz leave next year but if he does Rosario is my choice to replace him. Yes, if any team have their heart on Rosario but don`t trade him just for the sake of trading him. All prospects still have things to work on while they are waiting. Back to trades, I hate to see any of the top 3 go & we must trade away fat not muscle.

Rosario's bat was 6 percent better than league average last year.

And that includes catchers, middle infielders and center fielders.

So his bat was likely less than league average for corner outfielders.

 

Of course, there is no guarantee that you'll get league average production from a replacement. But, I wouldn't say it'd be hard to imagine.

[jorgenswest]

For projecting forward BP’s DRC+ has a higher correlation than looking at a previous season’s OPS.

 

Rosario had a DRC+ of 109 ranking 67/68 with Brett Gardner and ahead of Marte, Votto, Abreau, Seager and Machado. I would be very reluctant to move on from Rosario. They would need to get in return a pitcher who is ready to perform at his level in 2020.

[Crackedfungo]

For projecting forward BP’s DRC+ has a higher correlation than looking at a previous season’s OPS.

Rosario had a DRC+ of 109 ranking 67/68 with Brett Gardner and ahead of Marte, Votto, Abreau, Seager and Machado. I would be very reluctant to move on from Rosario. They would need to get in return a pitcher who is ready to perform at his level in 2020.

Rosario's bat was 6 percent better than league average last year.

And that includes catchers, middle infielders and center fielders.

So his bat was likely less than league average for corner outfielders.

Of course, there is no guarantee that you'll get league average production from a replacement. But, I wouldn't say it'd be hard to imagine.

Question: Name all Twins players in the last 25 years that batted over .275 with more than 32 HRs and 100 RBI? Since these are only “league replacement numbers” this shouldn’t be hard to replace, right? WRONG. Whether a corner OF or not, only Rosario and Mourneau have achieved that mix of numbers in a season over that period. I just don’t get the fantasy people believe it is that this is average to below average production. It sure isn’t in Twins Territory. So, either we have had [ ] players (including a player like Mauer, who never had a season mix like this), or it ain’t that easy to replace. All these new age stats are just noise. They are just more contrived tools to entertain the stat stooges. Guys like Rosario have not been that plentiful or expendable on the Twins (or upon most teams). You aren’t going to convince astute people otherwise that merely watch a game and assess impact accordingly by what they see without a slide rule and pocket protector. This topic is SO tired and misrepresented.

[Mr. Brooks]

Question: Name all Twins players in the last 25 years that batted over .275 with more than 32 HRs and 100 RBI? Since these are only “league replacement numbers” this shouldn’t be hard to replace, right? WRONG. Whether a corner OF or not, only Rosario and Mourneau have achieved that mix of numbers in a season over that period. I just don’t get the fantasy people believe it is that this is average to below average production. It sure isn’t in Twins Territory. So, either we have had [ ] players (including a player like Mauer, who never had a season mix like this), or it ain’t that easy to replace. All these new age stats are just noise. They are just more contrived tools to entertain the stat stooges. Guys like Rosario have not been that plentiful or expendable on the Twins (or upon most teams). You aren’t going to convince astute people otherwise that merely watch a game and assess impact accordingly by what they see without a slide rule and pocket protector. This topic is SO tired and misrepresented.

1) I never said "replacement level". I said league average.

The fact that his OPS was 6% better than league average for all positions isn't an opinion, it's factual.

 

2) Last year was a historical year for offense. You have to compare his numbers to his peers, not to Twins hitters 25 years ago, 10 years ago, or even 3 years ago.

 

3) You listed BA, HR, and RBI.

You left out on base percentage, which is his biggest weakness. Not making outs is pretty important in a game where the other team can't beat you unless you make 27 outs (barring weather shortened finals).

 

4) I don't recall using any "new age" stats. On base % and slugging % are as old as the game itself.

 

5) There is really no reason to refer to opinions that you disagree with using such terms as "fantasy", "noise", "contrived", "stooges", and "tired".

Especially when the post you are referring to really had little in the way of opinion and was mostly just citing facts.

[twinkies8791]

only 3 pitchers i would get that would have buxton, lewis, or kiriloff, as the headliner..  Clevinger, Buehler and Thor

[twinkies8791]

i would also trade nick gordon for guys like, ray, gray, archer, price or sale

[lukeduke1980]

 

More likely, if Lewis's bat arrives at MLB-levels, he replaces Buxton at CF when he becomes a free agent or gets traded. 

 

Kirilloff is way redundant in this organization and the best path forward is to be included in a trade for a front line pitcher some time before the deadline this season.  Left hand throwing first basemen/outfielders with a 780 OPS in AA are not needed in this organization.  Kepler is the one who blocks him as such, and he can actually play CF okay, unlike Kirilloff
 

Out of curiosity is it more common for organizations to have depth in the corner-outfielder type of player, given the profile of the player, a plus bat who just needs a position?  

[jorgenswest]

Question: Name all Twins players in the last 25 years that batted over .275 with more than 32 HRs and 100 RBI? Since these are only “league replacement numbers” this shouldn’t be hard to replace, right? WRONG. Whether a corner OF or not, only Rosario and Mourneau have achieved that mix of numbers in a season over that period. I just don’t get the fantasy people believe it is that this is average to below average production. It sure isn’t in Twins Territory. So, either we have had [ ] players (including a player like Mauer, who never had a season mix like this), or it ain’t that easy to replace. All these new age stats are just noise. They are just more contrived tools to entertain the stat stooges. Guys like Rosario have not been that plentiful or expendable on the Twins (or upon most teams). You aren’t going to convince astute people otherwise that merely watch a game and assess impact accordingly by what they see without a slide rule and pocket protector. This topic is SO tired and misrepresented.

Just a little puzzled why I was quoted.

 

I think I was in support of retaining Romero though I possibly used a tool contrived by BP to support Rosario. I believe it has a year to year correlation of .69 compared to OPS+ of .51.

 

A 109 DRC+ is a good thing. Cave has been around 90 the last two season.

 

Ranking 67/68 over all qualifying hitters and in line with Gardner is a good thing. The Yankees still value Gardner.

 

That 109 ranks above Votto, Abreau and Machado which is a good thing.

 

There are new metrics that put Rosario in a good light and the Twins have him at a contract that is favorable relative to many similarly ranked players.

 

Does he have significant trade value? Probably not given his limited years of control, position and arb status. Does he have significant value the Twins? Absolutely.