Post-Donaldson Trade - Status of Top Prospects

[Major League Ready]

 

More likely, if Lewis's bat arrives at MLB-levels, he replaces Buxton at CF when he becomes a free agent or gets traded. 

 

Kirilloff is way redundant in this organization and the best path forward is to be included in a trade for a front line pitcher some time before the deadline this season.  Left hand throwing first basemen/outfielders with a 780 OPS in AA are not needed in this organization.  Kepler is the one who blocks him as such, and he can actually play CF okay, unlike Kirilloff
 

 

Why would anyone give up front line SP for him if his 780 OPS last year is indicative of what he will or will not be at the MLB level? Is it fair to say someone would have to believe his AA season was representative of his ceiling and his scorching performance at A / A+ were not representative?

 

I guess the good news is that the FO has a good portion of the MiLB season to evaluate this prior to the deadline.

 

[Rosterman]

It seems like on the field players everyone else in the lower system is now available for a trade. All those A-ball and Double-A outfielders and middle infielders will need a job elsewhere come 2022.

 

[Thrylos]

 

Out of curiosity is it more common for organizations to have depth in the corner-outfielder type of player, given the profile of the player, a plus bat who just needs a position?  

Depends at the level.  At the lower levels the biggest depth is at shortstop because teams draft a lot of shortstops who may move to other positions and have reasonable defense at the new positions (Plouffe and Cuddyer are a couple names here.)  At the higher levels, due to that move, plus the attrition of light hitters, and of catchers moving to corners, corner positions are more frequent. 

[amjgt]

Brett Gardner:

a) plays CF

b.) has a positive defensive impact

c) got a 1 year, 12.5M deal this offseason

 

I'd say Kole Calhoun is pretty comparable and he got 2/16 this offseason

 

So yeah... pretty replaceable

[Bickle19]

 

Why would anyone give up front line SP for him if his 780 OPS last year is indicative of what he will or will not be at the MLB level? Is it fair to say someone would have to believe his AA season was representative of his ceiling and his scorching performance at A / A+ were not representative?

 

I guess the good news is that the FO has a good portion of the MiLB season to evaluate this prior to the deadline.

I mean it's not like one season indicates that the prior season was a fluke. He tore up a pitcher friendly league at 21 after missing a full year. He battled through a wrist injury last year and hit .311 with 5 HR and a .851 OPS in 114 PA in August. Obviously unless the MLB scouts are seeing something in his swing, I don't think it will impact how he is viewed that much. Injuries obviously may be a concern, but I think the bat is real. Hopefully he has a year more like 2018. We will see.

[Major League Ready]

 

I mean it's not like one season indicates that the prior season was a fluke. He tore up a pitcher friendly league at 21 after missing a full year. He battled through a wrist injury last year and hit .311 with 5 HR and a .851 OPS in 114 PA in August. Obviously unless the MLB scouts are seeing something in his swing, I don't think it will impact how he is viewed that much. Injuries obviously may be a concern, but I think the bat is real. Hopefully he has a year more like 2018. We will see.

 

I am inclined to take your point of view. I was responding to someone who said "Left hand throwing first basemen/outfielders with a 780 OPS in AA are not needed in this organization". I believe Kirilloff's primary position will be 1B with Sano moving to DH at some point in 2021. However, it seems most people are more inclined to see him as a corner OFer. May be my take is off but I see Larnach taking over LF in 2021 and Kirilloff playing primarily at 1B but will provide the flexibility of playing in the OF.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

For projecting forward BP’s DRC+ has a higher correlation than looking at a previous season’s OPS.

Rosario had a DRC+ of 109 ranking 67/68 with Brett Gardner and ahead of Marte, Votto, Abreau, Seager and Machado. I would be very reluctant to move on from Rosario. They would need to get in return a pitcher who is ready to perform at his level in 2020.

Like OPS, DRC+ only looks at hitting, though.

 

I don't think anyone is arguing whether Rosario is a pretty good hitter, the question is whether he's worth what he's being paid considering his defensive ability and whether the Twins could use him in trade for someone who could help the team *more*.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Question: Name all Twins players in the last 25 years that batted over .275 with more than 32 HRs and 100 RBI? Since these are only “league replacement numbers” this shouldn’t be hard to replace, right? WRONG. Whether a corner OF or not, only Rosario and Mourneau have achieved that mix of numbers in a season over that period. I just don’t get the fantasy people believe it is that this is average to below average production. It sure isn’t in Twins Territory. So, either we have had [ ] players (including a player like Mauer, who never had a season mix like this), or it ain’t that easy to replace. All these new age stats are just noise. They are just more contrived tools to entertain the stat stooges. Guys like Rosario have not been that plentiful or expendable on the Twins (or upon most teams). You aren’t going to convince astute people otherwise that merely watch a game and assess impact accordingly by what they see without a slide rule and pocket protector. This topic is SO tired and misrepresented.

You're using counting stats in a single season where it was shown that counting stats were completely blown out of proportion by a ball that leapt off the bat.

 

The Twins literally had five 30 home run hitters last season. They were literally the first team in the 100-what-the-hell-ever seasons of MLB to accomplish that feat.

 

So exactly how special was it to hit 30 home runs in 2019?

 

Rosario finished fourth on his own team in home runs, just one ahead of a guy with 240 fewer plate appearances.

[Monkeypaws]

One stat often overlooked with Eddie in what he does with RISP - his team leading 109 RBI give a hint (6th in the AL), but his numbers with RISP last season:

 

.340 BA (8th in the AL), .370 OBP, .538 SLG, for a .908 OPS. Clutch.

 

I'm really in no hurry to push him out the door.

[Mr. Brooks]

One stat often overlooked with Eddie in what he does with RISP - his team leading 109 RBI give a hint (6th in the AL), but his numbers with RISP last season:

 

.340 BA (8th in the AL), .370 OBP, .538 SLG, for a .908 OPS. Clutch.

 

I'm really in no hurry to push him out the door.

Then again, his career numbers with RISP:

.271/.306/.448 (.754)

 

Those numbers are worse than his career overall numbers.

 

Single season RISP numbers are far too small of a sample size to tell us much of anything.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

One stat often overlooked with Eddie in what he does with RISP - his team leading 109 RBI give a hint (6th in the AL), but his numbers with RISP last season:

 

.340 BA (8th in the AL), .370 OBP, .538 SLG, for a .908 OPS. Clutch.

 

I'm really in no hurry to push him out the door.

while I’m in no hurry to “push him out the door” either, WPA tells a slightly different story.

 

1.21 WPA doesn’t put him in the top 5 hitters in terms of Win Probability Added.

 

Rosario has a good season and was absolutely an important part to 2019’s success. He’s just getting expensive and there are cheaper options that can provide similar hitting value and much better fielding getting very close to MLB ready.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/6-players-who-have-contributed-most-to-the-twins-winning-ways-in-2019-r8303

[Rosterman]

Cruz will probably be gone. Sano and Donaldson will both be considered for DH sometime in the future. Buxton is eitehr signed or not. Rosario is up in air. Bigger question is longterm fate of Polanco and Arraz. But Twins still look pretty strong for next 3-4 years and maybe 5-7 at all positions with possible in-house replacements as needed.

[raindog]

I've got less than exciting news about that 40 man roster spot...

 

[Squirrel]

 

I've got less than exciting news about that 40 man roster spot...

 

Um ... where are you looking because I see him still on the 40-man

[Rosterman]

If you are looking on your iPhone, there are some strange names on that roster. Vasquez, for example. 

 

[jorgenswest]

Rosario is more likely to help this year’s team in LF than any other player in the system.

 

If the Twins are in it for this year the only reason to trade him is to improve this year’s team somewhere else. They would need to find a trade partner that needs a LF and is win now for this year but somehow has spare valuable pitching to trade. I just don’t see it.

 

Rosario is a valuable player to this team but he doesn’t have the trade value they need to impact the pitching this year.

 

Maybe they can find a Matt Lawton for Rick Reed type deal during the season if Kirilloff or Larnach is ready. They aren’t ready yet.

[Major League Ready]

 

Cruz will probably be gone. Sano and Donaldson will both be considered for DH sometime in the future. Buxton is eitehr signed or not. Rosario is up in air. Bigger question is longterm fate of Polanco and Arraz. But Twins still look pretty strong for next 3-4 years and maybe 5-7 at all positions with possible in-house replacements as needed.

 

10 players from the 26 man will be free agents after this season.

 

Jake Odorizzi
Nelson Cruz
Marwin Gonzalez
Homer Bailey
Romo
Alex Avilia
Rich Hill
Tyler Clippard
Trevor May
Ehire Adrianza

 

 

[Beth27]

Buxton’s play gets him injured every year and limits the games he plays. His salary is going higher and higher. I would include him in a trade to get No. 1 starter. He still has arb years and teams still value him highly. Lewis should be their long term Center Fielder. 

[The Wise One]

The status of the prospects is that none are at the point of pushing major league players. They are still in the maybe phase. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Well... he was only blocked by Schoop, who was on a cheap one year deal, so I'm not sure how "blocked" that really is.

 

As recent as 2018... That cheap one year Schoop type deal would have prevented Arraez from seeing the light of day. 

 

But Yeah... 2019 happened and Baldelli did things much different than Molitor.

 

So... You are right... Schoop did not block Arraez. 

 

Arraez started 42 games at 2B and he started 40 games at LF, 3B, SS and DH. 

 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

Lewis and Kirilloff are blocked by Donaldson, Polanco, Arraez and Sano. Without a trade or an injury, I don’t see an opening for our top prospects. Maybe, Lewis starts more in center field. Maybe Twins plan to trade prospects for pitching at MLB and MiLB level.

 

I continue to struggle with these type of viewpoints. 

 

We all watched 2019 happen.

 

We watched Baldelli get every position player on the roster into the lineup last year.

 

We saw approximately zero damage to the team while Rocco was working everyone into the lineup.

We set a home run record while Rocco was working everyone into the lineup.

We won 101 games while Rocco was working everyone into the lineup. 

 

Astudilo was not on the 25 man roster for half the season (80 games) due to injury and a 2 week stint in AAA.

 

Yet, Astudillo still started 44 games out of 82 games. 

 

Why are Lewis and Kiriloff blocked?    

[strumdatjaguar]

Prior to September call-up time, prospects like Larnach, Lewis and Kirilloff will be blocked by healthy veterans. If there is an injury, then a space opens. This isn’t necessarily a bad “problem” to have. Nevertheless, even if Sano, Donaldson and/or any starting outfielder struggles, the Twins will not bring up any of those top prospects. Those players will continue to be put in the lineup unlike a player at the level of a Jonathan Schoop.

[Riverbrian]

 

Prior to September call-up time, prospects like Larnach, Lewis and Kirilloff will be blocked by healthy veterans. If there is an injury, then a space opens. This isn’t necessarily a bad “problem” to have. Nevertheless, even if Sano, Donaldson and/or any starting outfielder struggles, the Twins will not bring up any of those top prospects. Those players will continue to be put in the lineup unlike a player at the level of a Jonathan Schoop.

 

If this is true:

 

Why would they scrap the 2019 model that produced more success that we have seen in decades?

 

 

[strumdatjaguar]

Because the Twins have more invested monetarily and emotionally in Donaldson, Sano and their starting outfielders sans Rosario. Replacing one of them with a thriving prospect will em take much more than it took to boost Arraez over Schoop. In other words, they are blocked.

[Major League Ready]

 

Because the Twins have more invested monetarily and emotionally in Donaldson, Sano and their starting outfielders sans Rosario. Replacing one of them with a thriving prospect will em take much more than it took to boost Arraez over Schoop. In other words, they are blocked.

 

You can't be blocked until you have made a good case for being promoted.  Lewis would have to have to be good for all of 2020 to be considered a candidate for 2021.  KIrilloff is a bit closer but he needs to show an extended period of the type of performance he had in A/A+ before he earns a shot.  So, why are we worried about this not.  How did signing Donaldson become a problem? Seems like we are trying to find failure in success.  

[Doctor Wu]

Most of us are assuming, or at least hoping, that Nelson Cruz has another productive and healthy season. But he turns 40 in July, and we should be prepared for either a breakdown or dip in power. Okay, maybe he passes for Super Man again and leads the team to the playoffs, but something unfortunate could happen, so it's not unrealistic to think that their could be a DH opening earlier than expected this season.