How high would you go for Cole?

diehardtwinsfan · December 9, 2019

so much for this being a slow offseason...

nicksaviking · December 9, 2019

I would now offer Cole $245,000,000.99.

It's really interesting though that Strasburg got the exact amount that was leaked the Yankees were willing to pay Cole. Surely it's just a coincidence that both pitchers have the same agent.

It's almost as if someone wanted to tell the Yankees, "Ha, ha good one! Oh wait, you're serious?!?"

sweetmusicviola16 · December 9, 2019

so much for this being a slow offseason...

Tyler Kinley claimed by the Rockies.

Oh yeah, and that Strasburg deal. That means the Twins are set up to go after Cole then.

Hosken Bombo Disco · December 9, 2019

I would now offer Cole $245,000,000.99.

$245,000,000.99?

That is .98 cents of poor financial stewardship

bustedstuff88 · December 9, 2019

This might be an exaggeration. Cole made $13.5M last year and threw 3362 pitches. That comes out to $4,015 per pitch. Even if he gets...say....$35M AAV and throws the same number of pitches, you are still only looking at $10,410 per pitch, which......I would dare to guess you make more than that.

Cole makes more on 3 pitches than I do in a year lol

goulik · December 9, 2019

The best offer any of us on here had was 6/210 for Strasburg as given by sweetmusicviola16. He had the right average annual salary but was a year short. (unless Notoriousgod71 meant "blank check" for all 4 of them...)

I am now wondering how high Cole will go. These numbers have been huge! I am now very confident Cole will be at minimum 8 years and at minimum 280 Just to beat Strasburg with same annual salary. I am also thinking it will take at least 3/66 for Ryu.

Here are the bests offered by us so far:

Cole 8/300 given by Goulik and matched twice in this thread

Ryu 3/70 given by Beckmt (two offers of 4/75 were out there but that is less per year)

Mad Bum 4/90 offered by Tony&Rodney

At this rate, will any of these be enough?

beckmt · December 9, 2019

Baumgarner is looking for north of $100, Cole according to Boras is looking for north of $300 over 8 years and more for 9 or 10. This is insane folks, but to win I feel we probably are going to have to pay.

rv78 · December 9, 2019

I would go 3/70 on Ryu.

Cole will be too expensive even tho I'd like to see him in a Twins uniform next year and beyond.

I'd stay away from Madbum.

Cap'n Piranha · December 9, 2019

If the Front Office is good at finding and developing talent, the Twins should be able to offset an unproductive (relatively speaking) Cole in years 5+. If the Front Office is not good at finding and developing talent, we won't be able to take advantage of HOF-caliber Cole at almost any point of the contract.

The Angels, as were previously referenced, have not struggled because of all the money they gave Trout--it's because of all the money they gave Pujols and Upton for replacement level production, combined with a general inability to take advantage of cheap talent.

Therefore, since it's the fans' money (it doesn't become Jim Pohlad's money until we give it to him in return for Twins-related content), I say do what it takes to get this done now, while we have a very nice core of talent that is young, cheap, and proven all at the same time, with an above-average farm system to supplement in whatever way is needed. If now is not the time to push the chips to the middle, I don't know when that time will be.

ewen21 · December 9, 2019

I don’t care if we suck years 5,6,7. Decent chance we suck in 5 years anyway.

I’ll take 4 years where I feel like we have a legit WS shot.

I'm sorry, but one guy isn't going to turn this around. There is a problem with the culture that needs to be addressed.

SmellEm · December 9, 2019

I'm sorry, but one guy isn't going to turn this around. There is a problem with the culture that needs to be addressed.

Thank goodness someone didn't feel the same way about Jack Morris in 1991 as the Twins were coming off a 74 win season. Or the 1985 team that was out of contention in August when they traded for Blyleven.

tvagle · December 9, 2019

Here's what 9/$315M could look like for your Minnesota Twins from now until 2029

Too many Extensions and Contract signings to list

Take a look at each year and if I felt I could keep existing players I listed their names

Blank Roster spots are yours to fill in and or pool together to sign a higher contract...ask questions if it's too confusing

#SoYou'reSayingWeGottaChance

COTwinsFan · December 9, 2019

I'm sorry, but one guy isn't going to turn this around. There is a problem with the culture that needs to be addressed.

Turn this around?? The Twins won 101 games. Our culture this past year was one of the best in baseball.

I do think it is interesting that 5 out of the last 6 World Series Champs had at least 1 starting pitcher making a minimum of $20 million annually. I think this is a clear indicator that to truly win at the highest level you have to spend on high priced, high impact pitching. I don't necessarily think the Twins need to sign Cole, but I believe spending $36 million annually on Gerrit Cole is a much better investment than $20 million annually on Madison Bumgarner.

sweetmusicviola16 · December 10, 2019

Here's what 9/$315M could look like for your Minnesota Twins from now until 2029

Too many Extensions and Contract signings to list

Take a look at each year and if I felt I could keep existing players I listed their names

Blank Roster spots are yours to fill in and or pool together to sign a higher contract...ask questions if it's too confusing

#SoYou'reSayingWeGottaChance

Nicely done. After we've won the next 3 WS with Cole he can be traded too.

ewen21 · December 10, 2019

Thank goodness someone didn't feel the same way about Jack Morris in 1991 as the Twins were coming off a 74 win season. Or the 1985 team that was out of contention in August when they traded for Blyleven.

Different era different game different circumstances

h2oface · December 10, 2019

This might be an exaggeration. Cole made $13.5M last year and threw 3362 pitches. That comes out to $4,015 per pitch. Even if he gets...say....$35M AAV and throws the same number of pitches, you are still only looking at $10,410 per pitch, which......I would dare to guess you make more than that.

Good thing you don't have to waste $16K/intentional walk then...... and then $40K!

IndianaTwin · December 10, 2019

I enjoy looking at the "similarity scores" section on a guy's baseball-reference.com page. I'm not a smart enough geek to claim how predictive they are, but on the surface, they often seem to be on target.

So for Cole, the most similar players at particular ages were Syndergaard (at age 22), Marichal (23), Millwood (24), Nola (25), McDowell (26), Millwood (27), and Strasburg (28).

The guys with the most similar stats through their age 28 season are Strasburg, Price, Santana, Weaver, Oswalt, Peavy, Hamels, Cueto, Hudson, Verlander.

Those are good players, but looking back at the careers of the seven guys who have passed age 35 (all but Strasburg, Price, and Cueto), in my opinion the only one who earned close to 7/$245MM money was Verlander. He pitched an average of 206 innings with a 5.0 WAR in those years.

As a group, those seven averaged only 158 innings and 2.9 WAR per season. Keep in mind that those are driven up by Verlander. There's an 86 percent chance you get an average of 150 innings and 2.6 WAR. And if you managed to get a Santana/Weaver/Oswalt/Peavy, you got 133 innings and a little less than 2.0 WAR.

And as a reference point, Odorizzi pitched 159 innings with a 3.6 WAR this year. Do we really want to pay $27 million for something less than Jake Odorizzi for the next seven years? I don't.

prouster · December 10, 2019

Joel Sherman of the New York Post is guessing that 9/324 is the over/under.

I think that’s approaching (blowing right past?) the point of diminishing returns. Cole is an extremely good pitcher, but the words “David Price” should haunt any GM who makes that offer.

Rosterman · December 10, 2019

Seriously, I would be hard-pressed to go to five years on any playe any more. I would maybe stretch it for the right position player (with an option year or two) if youa re getting them at a decent age.

Part of it is just...well Mauer. He was worth the money. But he also hurt the Twins because you basically had to find space, have him play everyday, and at a position you didn't expect him to be at (at least for as long) and in which you probably wanted different production.

Money is not an issue. Is Odorizzi worth $17.5 million? No. But you can do it for this year, and he might be motivated to pitch the best season he ahs ever pitched knowing he will go into free agency.

I like the Astros idea of taking on a big contract with a couple of years left. All depends on your current payroll situation.

But a starting pitcher. 32-35 games. Can he win 25 of those games. Can you team win 25 of those games or more because of the performance of the pitcher? Sure, you want a firebrand for the post-season, but you have to egt to the post-season.

FlauerPauer · December 10, 2019

prouster · December 10, 2019

Joel Sherman of the New York Post is guessing that 9/324 is the over/under.

I think that’s approaching (blowing right past?) the point of diminishing returns. Cole is an extremely good pitcher, but the words “David Price” should haunt any GM who makes that offer.

Meanwhile, Jayson Stark is guessing somewhere around 8/280. A slightly smaller AAV, and obviously a year less.

ewen21 · December 10, 2019

Turn this around?? The Twins won 101 games. Our culture this past year was one of the best in baseball.

Yes. I said turn this around.

How many playoff losses have we had in a row. Is it bad luck? Is it that the other team is that much better?

That certainly cannot be the case and therefore (to me) there is a problem with the culture in this organization. It seems to me they are willing to pack it in and call it a "successful season" (just like Cuddyer did after the last 3-and-out) after winning a division. On the other hand, when the Yankees went down to Houston in the second round after a hard fought series Aaron Judge called it a "failure"

No tantrum. No anger. Just a different sent of expectations. Calmly stated, I might add.

Baldelii did the complete opposite and while I have talked about it before it bears repeating: No way in the world should he be telling everyone "I'm not frustrated at all". Unacceptable and I am a Rocco guy (maybe not so much now)

Best keep that a secret if you feel that way. I am sorry, but a team that wins 101 games should aspire for more than a 3-and-out in round one.

Had we gotten further, I would be more on board with throwing more money at a guy like Cole. What is the point to it? We win 110 games and then lose in the first round again?

ewen21 · December 10, 2019

Seriously, I would be hard-pressed to go to five years on any playe any more. I would maybe stretch it for the right position player (with an option year or two) if youa re getting them at a decent age.

Part of it is just...well Mauer. .

I agree with you. It is not a smart play for the Twins (or other teams that aren't very wealthy) to roll the dice. Joey Votto's contract has hurt the Reds and he has had years way better than what Mauer had during his contract.