Opening / Everyday Batting Order

[Channing1964]

The trend now is for the highest OPS to bat second because some analyticanalyist decided they come up more times late in games....Cruz has to be the number 2 and between who's on a roll Sano, Cron, and Schoop can move up and down.

[Twodogs]

My dream lineup, includes my dream of some of the key players, ah la Buxton to either break out or at least have consistent years.

 

CF Buxton R

SS Polanco S

DH Cruz R

LF Rosario L

3B Sano R

RF Kepler L

2B Schoop R

1B Cron/Austin R

C Castro/Garver L/R

[twinsfansd]

Palonco  (good OBP)

Rosario (best hitter)

Sano (would benefit the most from Cruz batting behind him)

Cruz (because he should)

Kepler (divide up righty bats)

Cron (more right/left protection)

Castro (back to lefty)

Schoop (hopefully there is someone on in front of him)

Buxton (less pressure, if he gets on it sets up the top of the order)

[Linus]

Looks like lots of swing and misses with the occasional solo homer. Really thought the FO had a chance to remake this team this year at bat, in the field and on the mound. I guess not

[TheLeviathan]

When you have trouble slotting the 1/2 hitters in the lineup that's not an encouraging sign.

 

This team really needs Buxton to earn his way into this regular lineup:

 

Buxton

Polanco

Cruz

Sano

Rosario

Cron

Kepler

Schoop

Garver

 

Because if he's not hitting leadoff I might just slide the whole thing up and bat Cruz second.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

I get it. But I just don't see Cruz hitting 2nd. There has to be someone...not sure who yet, could be a surprise with Rocco in charge...to team with Polanco who could give Cruz more RBI opportunities.

Willians Astudillo.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I'd move Sano down in the lineup. He would end too many rallies with a SO. That type of SO is so deflating. 

[TFRazor]

 

Willians Astudillo.

 

I laughed out loud at this.... Then..... I started to think about it and it has a weird sort of logic to it.

 

Also just the awesomeness of watching that hair trying to go first-to-home on a Cruz double is totally worth it

[AlwaysinModeration]

While some people have come close, I haven’t yet seen the correct answer, which is:

 

Buxton

Polanco

Sano

Cruz

Rosario

Cron

Kepler

Schoop

Castro

 

Buxton leads off the season with a bunt for a hit, Sano hits a two-run homer.

[ashbury]

 

While some people have come close, I haven’t yet seen the correct answer, which is:

Buxton
Polanco
Sano
Cruz
Rosario
Cron
Kepler
Schoop
Castro

Buxton leads off the season with a bunt for a hit, Sano hits a two-run homer.

Polanco is always retired in the first inning? That can't be the correct answer.

[rv78]

 

While some people have come close, I haven’t yet seen the correct answer, which is:

Buxton
Polanco
Sano
Cruz
Rosario
Cron
Kepler
Schoop
Castro

Buxton leads off the season with a bunt for a hit, Sano hits a two-run homer.

Chances are better that Polonco leads off the season with a hit and Cruz hits a 2 run homer.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Polanco is always retired in the first inning? That can't be the correct answer.

I forgot to mention, Buxton is doubled home by Polanco and THEN Sano hits the two-run homer.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Chances are better that Polonco leads off the season with a hit and Cruz hits a 2 run homer.

No, that’s not what happens.

 

(And who is this Polonco fellow of whom you speak?)

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

While some people have come close, I haven’t yet seen the correct answer, which is:

Buxton
Polanco
Sano
Cruz
Rosario
Cron
Kepler
Schoop
Castro

Buxton leads off the season with a bunt for a hit, Sano hits a two-run homer.

Sano's 2 run homer is after a Polanco single to right field, scoring Buck.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Sano's 2 run homer is after a Polanco single to right field, scoring Buck.

I was going to say the same thing...scores on a single to right-center. ;-)

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

As things now stand, this is a tough exercise. The most  logical leadoff hitter and the most alogical hitter to hit between Rosario at number two and Cruz at number four is the same guy, Polanco. We're basically short one spot regardless of which place you put him. There isn't another logical leadoff hitter on the roster and you can't leadoff a guy like Kepler because he frankly can't hit like even an average major league outfielder. you have to hide him if you want to keep them in because of his defense. I also don't see how you can put a guy like Schoop near the top of the order because he will have an OPP of .310 or less if past is prologue, so he's got to hit 7th or 8th.  There's no way you can lead out Buxton until he shows that he can hit his weight during the regular season. A good spring training is nowhere near enough for me given how poorly he's hit in the past. He's got to start out at number 9. The problem is we've got a lot of guys who could hit in the 5 through 7 spots, more than two or deserve to have no higher than 8 or 9, but not enough guys to hit the 1 through 4 spots.

 

I think the two ways to do this are:

 

Polanco SS

Rosario  LF

Cruz       DH

Sano      3B

Cave      RF

Cron       1B

Garver    C

Schoop   2B

Buxton    CF

 

I look at that and I see a lot of strikeouts between the number 4 and 9 spots, and I wonder if we can trust Sano it in the middle of the order. Here's the other way I think it might work:

 

Polanco SS

Cron       1B

Rosario  LF

Cruz       DH

Cave      RF

Sano      3B

Garver    C

Schoop  2B

Buxton   CF 

 

For those of you that prefer Kepler to Cave, I think you can basically just change out the names or move Kepler to number 8 the order (where he should bat based on his past performance IF he starts) and move everyone else up one. Our lack of high OBP guys makes this difficult exercise.

I see a lot of reasons to use your second lineup. Thanks.

[DocBauer]

Polanco (S)

Cron ®

Cruz ®

Rosario (L)

Sano ®

Kepler (L)

Garver ®

Schoop ®

Buxton ®

 

Cron batted 2nd quite a bit last year and this team looks to be following TB's lead in a lot of areas. Schoop probably swaps with the catcher spot when Casto plays, but with only two regular lefties in the lineup I'd sandwich them around Sano to try to limit the pitching changes to the flawed but powerful hitter.

I admit to not following the Rays too closely. I was unaware Cron hit in the 2 hole often. I wonder at the reasoning. Power but not a great OB, was this to sandwich him between two other guys with better OB? I agree Rocco could carry on a similar idea now that he's in charge. And if so, your lineup makes sense. And I do like Kepler/Cave lower in the order to break up RH/LH batters and deepen the lineup more.

[Mr. Brooks]

Willians Astudillo.

Astudillo walks at a 2% clip, he can't bat at the top of the order.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Astudillo walks at a 2% clip, he can't bat at the top of the order.

Astudillio’s OBP last year was .371 and seemingly inline with minor league rate.

 

Buxton who seems to be the consensus lead off man .183 OBP in his injury plagued season, .285 career OBP and his 2017 season where break thru was shouted from the roof tops was .314.

 

Polanco the other lead off contender had 2018 OBP .345 and career .329

 

Why can’t a guy who gets on base 37% of the time lead off? Why do we really care how he gets there?

 

He never strikes out. Ever. Isn’t that job number one of the lead off man is to get on base?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Astudillo walks at a 2% clip, he can't bat at the top of the order.

Astudillo runs at a 2% clip also.

[ashbury]

Astudillo runs at a 2% clip also.

Nonsense. Here is video from that iconic base-running play he made in 2018:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJlB5K6JXm4

 

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

Astudillio’s OBP last year was .371 and seemingly inline with minor league rate.

 

Buxton who seems to be the consensus lead off man .183 OBP in his injury plagued season, .285 career OBP and his 2017 season where break thru was shouted from the roof tops was .314.

 

Polanco the other lead off contender had 2018 OBP .345 and career .329

 

Why can’t a guy who gets on base 37% of the time lead off? Why do we really care how he gets there?

 

He never strikes out. Ever. Isn’t that job number one of the lead off man is to get on base?

That OBP is only sustainable if you think he can continue to hit .355, with a .341 babip.

I'm skeptical that he can continue anywhere near that pace.

Even if he's a .300 hitter, which is really good, his OBP drops to .316.

[oregontwin]

 

OBP Last Year / OBP Career
1 Polanco 345 329
2 Cruz 342 342
3 Rosario 323 312
4 Sano 281 336
5 Cron 323 311
6 Kepler 319 313
7 Schoop 266 294
8 Buxton 183 285
9 Castro 257 311

 

This line-up assumes Sano resembles himself before the leg injury. Buxton needs to earn his way to the top of the order during the regular season. The reason I put Cruz in #2 spot is because I don't want anyone hitting in the 2 hole with a below average OBP(MLB avg is 320). This also makes for a nice Right/Left balance.

 

I like this, but would swap Cruz and Rosario.

 

[jorgenswest]

My first reaction is that I wouldn’t want Astudillo batting directly after Buxton. Astudillo doesn’t need many pitches to get the ball in play making it difficult to steal second.

 

On the other hand when Buxton is on base he puts pressure on the defense every time the ball is put in play which Astudillo dies frequently.

[TheLeviathan]

Astudillo's hitting profile defies a lot of norms.  I'm not sure he isn't an ideal guy to hit second.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

That OBP is only sustainable if you think he can continue to hit .355, with a .341 babip.

I'm skeptical that he can continue anywhere near that pace.

Even if he's a .300 hitter, which is really good, his OBP drops to .316.

agreed, but Rod Carew’s career Babip over 17 seasons was .359.

 

.355 BA with a .341 BABIP has happened before over sustained periods for a handful of players. Not likely for La Tortuga, not impossible either.

[DrNeau]

1. CF Buxton
2. SS Polanco
3. LF Rosario
4. DH Cruz
5. 1B Cron
6. 3B Sano
7. RF Austin
8. 2B Schoop
9. C Garver

[nicksaviking]

I admit to not following the Rays too closely. I was unaware Cron hit in the 2 hole often. I wonder at the reasoning. Power but not a great OB, was this to sandwich him between two other guys with better OB? I agree Rocco could carry on a similar idea now that he's in charge. And if so, your lineup makes sense. And I do like Kepler/Cave lower in the order to break up RH/LH batters and deepen the lineup more.

Yeah I didn’t follow them either. I just checked the TB players lineup splits in BBR to play this game. Cron almost always batted 2nd or 4th.

[GP830]

Something that I haven't seen brought up- 

Locking in Astudillo into the top of the line-up while allowing him to fill in as a super utility player, could be a great way to increase contact and OBP at the top of the order. 

[crapforks]

Something that I haven't seen brought up-

Locking in Astudillo into the top of the line-up while allowing him to fill in as a super utility player, could be a great way to increase contact and OBP at the top of the order.

I’m as intrigued as anyone else by Astudillo. However, his extreme skill set (OBP by way of extreme contact) isn’t necessarily a perfect match for the top of the order. Part of the idea is patient approach (p/pa) hitters, which normally translates into an elevated OBP. I’m not saying the Twins have a better option at present, just raining on the Astudillo party.