Dozier and the Trade Deadline

[youngpadawan]

Brian Dozier has stated recently that he looks forward to free agency after the season. What should the Twins do with Dozier at the trade deadline? Is it quite likely they move him if not in contention? If the Twins are in contention, do they move him anyway to get some value before he leaves?

[terrydactyls]

He is looking forward to leaving the Twins at the end of this season. Whether in contention or not, trade him for whatever you can get.

[USAFChief]

There is zero chance he gets moved if the Twins are in contention.

 

None.

[Thrylos]

The draft pick they will get if they make a qualifying offer will probably worth more than the prospect they will receive with him as a rental.

[beckmt]

 

The draft pick they will get if they make a qualifying offer will probably worth more than the prospect they will receive with him as a rental.

Unless it is a first round pick, find this to be highly unlikely.  If the Twins are out of contention (also unlikely), Dozier if he is having a year close to the last two, should bring some top to mid range prospects and a lottery ticket or two in return.  Seasons never work out as planned, and injuries or lack of production could give the Twins more than 1 suitor in this possibility.  If offers are too lower you give him a QO and take the draft pick.

[twinsfanstreif]

There is zero reason to discuss this right now, it 100% hinges on us being in contention. Why are we talking about this in spring training?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

He is looking forward to leaving the Twins at the end of this season. Whether in contention or not, trade him for whatever you can get.

he never said he wanted to leave, he said he looked forward to free agency.

 

Now odds of Twins being the highest offer are low. Odds of Dozier being a Twin in ‘19 are low.

 

Can’t plan for ‘19 in this case. Twins need to win in ‘18, so unless they crap the bed in the first half, they need to hold on to Dozier as he is certainly a better hitter in ‘18 than the other in house options.

 

In November/December give Dozier the QO and take the pick. Make sure Gordon gets a couple stints with the big league club and try to upgrade in the offseason.

[youngpadawan]

I don't believe it 100% hinges on us being in contention. They could groom Gordon or have Aybar take over if they believe their best value would be trading him at the deadline. It isn't unreasonable to think a team in contention would be willing to sell someone at the right price.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, he is not getting moved if the team is in contention, nor should he be. If they are out of it, then yes, move him. They will get a comp pick on the QO, so not exactly a huge haul... but if he's on his way to another 30+ HR season at 2B, someone will give a decent prospect for him if the Twins are out. 

[jimbo92107]

We also know that the Twins have a glut of prospects in the middle infield, and 2018 is not the year this team makes a serious run at a ring. If the Twins traded Dozier this spring, then they could promote top SS prospect Nick Gordon, slide Polanco to 2B where he fits better, and let the new combo settle in by mid season. Meanwhile Gonsalves would be settling in as the #5 starter, and the Twins would be ready for their first long win streak around June.

 

And my unicorn farts pretty rainbows across the baby blue sky, I know... ;-)

[Vanimal46]

Things would have to go very, very wrong to even consider trading Dozier. I'm not even thinking about another "total system failure" season. He's going to be on this team for the entire season.

[Riverbrian]

 

There is zero reason to discuss this right now, it 100% hinges on us being in contention. Why are we talking about this in spring training?

 

Because it's Fun to play the "What If" thing. I see no problem with the discussion even if it is clearly premature. 

[ewen21]

 

Unless it is a first round pick, find this to be highly unlikely.  If the Twins are out of contention (also unlikely), Dozier if he is having a year close to the last two, should bring some top to mid range prospects and a lottery ticket or two in return.  Seasons never work out as planned, and injuries or lack of production could give the Twins more than 1 suitor in this possibility.  If offers are too lower you give him a QO and take the draft pick.

 

he never said he wanted to leave, he said he looked forward to free agency.

Now odds of Twins being the highest offer are low. Odds of Dozier being a Twin in ‘19 are low.

Can’t plan for ‘19 in this case. Twins need to win in ‘18, so unless they crap the bed in the first half, they need to hold on to Dozier as he is certainly a better hitter in ‘18 than the other in house options.

In November/December give Dozier the QO and take the pick. Make sure Gordon gets a couple stints with the big league club and try to upgrade in the offseason.

 

He said he was looking forward to free agency.  Why else would he say this?  He is going to leave because he is looking to get the most money he can possibly get and some team is going to go over what the Twins are willing to give in order to get him.  

 

That's how it is going to work

[darin617]

Unless they make some major changes to the qualifying offer I could see Dozier in the same boat as all these top SP without jobs now.

 

Dozier will be 31 this May. So I can't see him getting more than a 4 year offer at tops. Same part it depends how his season plays out. He may try too hard to repeat his last 2 years in stats & hurt his value in the long run.

 

Tagging Dozier with a QO would be a mistake if he doesn't repeat with another good year. The Twins have options so I would just let him walk away.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

We also know that the Twins have a glut of prospects in the middle infield, and 2018 is not the year this team makes a serious run at a ring. If the Twins traded Dozier this spring, then they could promote top SS prospect Nick Gordon, slide Polanco to 2B where he fits better, and let the new combo settle in by mid season. Meanwhile Gonsalves would be settling in as the #5 starter, and the Twins would be ready for their first long win streak around June.

 

And my unicorn farts pretty rainbows across the baby blue sky, I know... ;-)

if they did this while in contention I’d be absolutely livid. If not in contention I’d be thrilled. Most likely they’ll be some where in the middle and we’ll argue this same line in the sand in 4 months

[Richie the Rally Goat]

He said he was looking forward to free agency. Why else would he say this? He is going to leave because he is looking to get the most money he can possibly get and some team is going to go over what the Twins are willing to give in order to get him.

 

That's how it is going to work

you’re confusing process with outcome. Agreed on the likely outcome. Dozier never mentioned outcome. He mentioned process. Maybe he cant wait to get away, but I can’t make that assumption

[ewen21]

 

you’re confusing process with outcome. Agreed on the likely outcome. Dozier never mentioned outcome. He mentioned process. Maybe he cant wait to get away, but I can’t make that assumption

 

I never said a think about him WANTING TO LEAVE. 

 

Dozier is going to go where the money takes him.  It more than likely won't be us.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

About fifty fifty they are in contention. So about fifty fifty he is traded.

[old nurse]

 

Unless it is a first round pick, find this to be highly unlikely.  If the Twins are out of contention (also unlikely), Dozier if he is having a year close to the last two, should bring some top to mid range prospects and a lottery ticket or two in return.  Seasons never work out as planned, and injuries or lack of production could give the Twins more than 1 suitor in this possibility.  If offers are too lower you give him a QO and take the draft pick.

The Twins are not in the top 15 for revenue hence it would be a first round pick. In trades for position players the last couple of years I would  think any high ceiling player in return would have a low probability of reaching it.  I would rather they pass on trading than getting future utility player or future middle relief help. On the other hand, if you don't ask you can not fleece.  They still should pursue a trade at any time given the chance to fleece.

[Twodogs]

Meanwhile, Dozier is 2 - 2 today with 2 2B's

[ashbury]

If the Twins are in contention, do they move him anyway to get some value before he leaves?

Implicit, but I think not quite stated, in some of these replies is that if they are in contention, the calculation is:

1. The value of what would come back in trade, versus
2. The value of the draft pick that comes from making a QO, *plus* the value he gives the team during his one last pennant drive with us and hopefully the post-season

This is a deceptively simple comp, and opinions will vary. Advanced analytics may be used by the team, or we can do our back-of-the-envelope WAR calculations or even just take our qualitative guesses from experience, trying to integrate established veterans versus high-end prospects. It's not easy.

 

My own view at the moment is that the value derived from a third of a season of Dozier, in his apparently established prime, is underrated and tips the scales. But a lot depends on what offers come from the other teams, and this is something we won't know unless a trade is agreed on.

[beckmt]

If we are out of it, it will depend on the season Dozier is having.  If he is having a great season, Twins should get a decent offer from a contending team.  If Dozier is having a bad year, he will just walk at the end of the year.  Too many variables at this time to try and figure out.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

About fifty fifty they are in contention. So about fifty fifty he is traded.

its gotta be better than 50/50. I’m 75% certain that tigers and royals will be in the bottom of the league and 60% pale hose will be there too. That puts me well better than 50/50 considering the AL East and AL West will be much more competitive

[Mr. Brooks]

its gotta be better than 50/50. I’m 75% certain that tigers and royals will be in the bottom of the league and 60% pale hose will be there too. That puts me well better than 50/50 considering the AL East and AL West will be much more competitive

Westgate sportsbook has them slightly over 50/50 basically.

(+140/-160)

[Mike Sixel]

 

its gotta be better than 50/50. I’m 75% certain that tigers and royals will be in the bottom of the league and 60% pale hose will be there too. That puts me well better than 50/50 considering the AL East and AL West will be much more competitive

 

They are really competing for 1 spot....as NYY/BOS/TOR will claim 2 spots between them.

 

That leaves the loser of that, Tampa, MN, SEA, LAA, TEX and a bunch of not ver likely teams.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

They are really competing for 1 spot....as NYY/BOS/TOR will claim 2 spots between them.

 

That leaves the loser of that, Tampa, MN, SEA, LAA, TEX and a bunch of not ver likely teams.

right, but Bos/NYY/Tor will play each other as much as the Twins play Det/Kc/CWS. It’ll be much harder to get 90 wins in the East than in the Central.

[Oldgoat_MN]

From what I have read the Twins have at no time approached Dozier about an extension. If true, then Brian has no reason to think he's particularly wanted here by the front office.

If I were him I would say I was looking forward to being a FA, too.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They are really competing for 1 spot....as NYY/BOS/TOR will claim 2 spots between them.

 

That leaves the loser of that, Tampa, MN, SEA, LAA, TEX and a bunch of not ver likely teams.

Cleveland is certainly better than the Twins on paper but weirder things have happened in baseball than a team like Minnesota claiming a division title over a team like Cleveland. Cleveland could see a couple of key injuries or maybe the Twins just step up and take the season series 12-7. All it might take is a lopsided season series.

 

What are the odds of that happening, 15-20%? Dunno, but it's not nothing.

[Blackjack]

 

 I could see Dozier in the same boat as all these top SP without jobs now.

 

I said the same thing last week and got ridiculed. Somebody must still be sleeping off the weekend.

 

How much does Dozier really want to win?? Unless the bidding team is Boston, NY, or Houston, what other team has a better chance of winning in the next few years?? With the Twins being full of infield prospects, I don't see them making a 'break the bank' offer for him.

 

The Dozier situation is going to be interesting, with lots of chatter here on TD about him.

[Mr. Brooks]

Cleveland is certainly better than the Twins on paper but weirder things have happened in baseball than a team like Minnesota claiming a division title over a team like Cleveland. Cleveland could see a couple of key injuries or maybe the Twins just step up and take the season series 12-7. All it might take is a lopsided season series.

 

What are the odds of that happening, 15-20%? Dunno, but it's not nothing.

About 22% according to Westgate sportsbook.