Dozier and the Trade Deadline

[Physics Guy]

I will echo what a few have said on this thread. I think the Twins will be able to resign Dozier at a reasonable rate if they so choose. He is likely to face much the same market at the FA did this year. Yes, the Dodgers and Yankees will probably open their wallets again, but Dozier is down the list of FA for next year. Harper, Machado, Kershaw and Donaldson are more likely to get the big contracts next year. DJ LeMahieu, Daniel Murphy and Josh Harrison are other options available at 2B. As well as Dozier has done the past two years, I don't think he is going to break the bank in FA. I'm going out on a limb and guess he signs a 4 year deal in the $60-70M range, well within what is feasible for the Twins. As a matter of fact, I would guess that the Twins will actually reduce their salary if the resign Joe and Dozier (they combine for $32M this year).

[ahart10]

I’m scared the Twins extend Dozier and get Dan Uggla on the decline.

[cjvirnig]

The handling of Brian Dozier is the single most perplexing aspect thus far of the Falvey/Levine era.  For whatever reason, those two seem to undervalue him.  They tried like hell to trade him last winter and now they're essentially giving him the cold shoulder regarding a contract extension.  Let's not forget that he's an All Star caliber player, a team leader, and a key cog of the Twins core.  Remember what happened after the 2010 season when the Twins thought it was okay to let a couple core players like Michael Cuddyer walk away?  Their clubhouse turned into a public library.  Obviously Falvey and Levine envision Royce Lewis at short and Nick Gordon at second, but it needs to be understood that there's a lot of risk with that plan; particularly the Nick Gordon part.  You don't just let a player in his prime like Brian Dozier walk away and not suffer fairly serious consequences.  Moreover, I don't like the general philosophy of letting a major run producer and clubhouse leader walk away in favor of a younger, cheaper, and quite likely inferior option.  Teams that don't have much interest in winning titles tend to think in those terms.

[Physics Guy]

The handling of Brian Dozier is the single most perplexing aspect thus far of the Falvey/Levine era.  For whatever reason, those two seem to undervalue him.  They tried like hell to trade him last winter and now they're essentially giving him the cold shoulder regarding a contract extension.  Let's not forget that he's an All Star caliber player, a team leader, and a key cog of the Twins core.  Remember what happened after the 2010 season when the Twins thought it was okay to let a couple core players like Michael Cuddyer walk away?  Their clubhouse turned into a public library.  Obviously Falvey and Levine envision Royce Lewis at short and Nick Gordon at second, but it needs to be understood that there's a lot of risk with that plan; particularly the Nick Gordon part.  You don't just let a player in his prime like Brian Dozier walk away and not suffer fairly serious consequences.  Moreover, I don't like the general philosophy of letting a major run producer and clubhouse leader walk away in favor of a younger, cheaper, and quite likely inferior option.  Teams that don't have much interest in winning titles tend to think in those terms.

Or it's possible that last year's efforts to trade him set his value. My guess is that they want to see how Gordon and Lewis perform this year. You also didn't mention Polanco. The Twins have options and as such do not have to break the bank to resign him. They also could have just had him go to arbitration every year as well but they gave him an extension. Let's not act as though the Twins are screwing him over. They are making good business decisions.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The handling of Brian Dozier is the single most perplexing aspect thus far of the Falvey/Levine era.  For whatever reason, those two seem to undervalue him.  They tried like hell to trade him last winter and now they're essentially giving him the cold shoulder regarding a contract extension.  Let's not forget that he's an All Star caliber player, a team leader, and a key cog of the Twins core.  Remember what happened after the 2010 season when the Twins thought it was okay to let a couple core players like Michael Cuddyer walk away?  Their clubhouse turned into a public library.  Obviously Falvey and Levine envision Royce Lewis at short and Nick Gordon at second, but it needs to be understood that there's a lot of risk with that plan; particularly the Nick Gordon part.  You don't just let a player in his prime like Brian Dozier walk away and not suffer fairly serious consequences.  Moreover, I don't like the general philosophy of letting a major run producer and clubhouse leader walk away in favor of a younger, cheaper, and quite likely inferior option.  Teams that don't have much interest in winning titles tend to think in those terms.

Falvey and Levine are doing exactly what they should be doing in this situation... nothing.

 

The Twins have a lot of moving pieces right now and a few of them are in the middle infield.

 

- Is Gordon going to be a MLB regular and will he prove it in 2018, or will it take longer than that?

 

- Is Polanco a legit bat?

 

- Is Polanco a legit shortstop?

 

- Is Brian Dozier going to show a noticeable decline in his age 31 season?

 

None of those questions have answers in March of 2018. So you sit back, wait, and see if you have a few answers in July of 2018 or maybe even October of 2018. Then you decide what to do.

[ashbury]

For whatever reason, those two seem to undervalue him.  They tried like hell to trade him last winter

If they undervalued him, wouldn't they have accepted the Dodgers' offer, or an offer from some other team?

[cjvirnig]

 

Falvey and Levine are doing exactly what they should be doing in this situation... nothing.

 

The Twins have a lot of moving pieces right now and a few of them are in the middle infield.

 

- Is Gordon going to be a MLB regular and will he prove it in 2018, or will it take longer than that?

 

- Is Polanco a legit bat?

 

- Is Polanco a legit shortstop?

 

- Is Brian Dozier going to show a noticeable decline in his age 31 season?

 

None of those questions have answers in March of 2018. So you sit back, wait, and see if you have a few answers in July of 2018 or maybe even October of 2018. Then you decide what to do.

I don't really agree with what you're saying.  For one thing, it doesn't matter what Jorge Polanco's ceiling ends up being.  He is not (and will never be) nearly as good or as productive as Dozier.  Secondly, anyone paying attention to what Dozier has been saying to the media understands that the guy is miffed.  This is NOT a situation where Falvey and Levine can take their time, weigh their options, see how things play out, and then, if need be, simply sign Dozier to a contract extension.  What's going to happen is that Dozier is going to decide to test the open market even if Falvey and Levine decide to offer him an extension later this season.  In fact, Dozier has already made it clear that since the Twins have never called his agent even once to talk about a new contract, that he intends to become a free agent.  And the implication there is that once he hits the market, he's almost certainly gone.

[Mike Sixel]

Dozier is hitting free agency because he finally can, not because of this FO. Probably.

[cjvirnig]

 

There is zero reason to discuss this right now, it 100% hinges on us being in contention. Why are we talking about this in spring training?

The reason to be talking about this right now is because Brian Dozier is miffed that the Twins haven't even bothered contacting his agent once about a possible contract extension.  Moreover, Dozier has made it clear in interviews to the media that he intends to test the open market after the season regardless of whether the Twins offer him a new deal at some point this season.  At this point, the chances of Dozier being in the Twins uniform in 2019 is nearly zero.  That's a huge roll of the dice for the Twins...and a gamble with odds very much stacked against them.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't really agree with what you're saying.  For one thing, it doesn't matter what Jorge Polanco's ceiling ends up being.  He is not (and will never be) nearly as good or as productive as Dozier.  Secondly, anyone paying attention to what Dozier has been saying to the media understands that the guy is miffed.  This is NOT a situation where Falvey and Levine can take their time, weigh their options, see how things play out, and then, if need be, simply sign Dozier to a contract extension.  What's going to happen is that Dozier is going to decide to test the open market even if Falvey and Levine decide to offer him an extension later this season.  In fact, Dozier has already made it clear that since the Twins have never called his agent even once to talk about a new contract, that he intends to become a free agent.  And the implication there is that once he hits the market, he's almost certainly gone.

Dozier is opting for free agency for the same reason he refused to sign a contract extending into his free agency seasons: he wants to test the market and decide where he plays next season.

 

The question isn't whether Dozier is more valuable than Polanco or Gordon, it's whether Dozier is worth $60m+ over four seasons and the opportunity cost that brings with it (namely, the Twins badly need pitching yet have $15m or so less to spend on it next season).

 

If Gordon is a .750 OPS player with better defense (and he'll almost certainly be better defensively than Dozier is now) at $500k a season, that leaves the Twins a lot of money and options going into next season.

[BD57]

Doesn't some of it depend on Joe Mauer?

 

If Mauer were inclined to retire (rather than leave Minnesota), then Sano could be moved to 1st base, potentially opening a spot for Dozier at 3B (not commenting on whether he has the arm for it - I have no idea).

 

If that were to occur, wouldn't Mauer's contract coming off the books provide a significant amount of money to pay Dozier (if it's thought that Dozier could provide production similar to the past couple/three years for another three years) without breaking the bank & depriving the Twins of resources for other needs?

 

If this past off season offers any hints about the future, it's that the Twins are not presently in the "top ranked FA pitchers" sights as a "destination" for their next club - so it would SEEM holding back money for the possibility of signing one of those guys is going to leave you with money in your pocket, more often than not (which adds nothing to the strength of the pitching staff).

 

If Mauer's back in '19, then there's a really good chance Dozier won't be here - Mauer's still going to get a good deal (it's unlikely the Twins are completely hard-nosed in dealing with Joe - especially if he's productive, like he was in '17).   

 

But if Joe decides to go, then, IMO, it becomes a different animal because (a) the "Mauer Money" won't be getting spent; and ( the Twins FO isn't going to want to see both of them leave . . . . and especially isn't going to want to be seen as pushing them both out.

 

End of the day . . . .  this is all speculation.   What happens is going to be affected by "what happens," and we don't know "what" that is yet.

[Physics Guy]

 

I don't really agree with what you're saying.  For one thing, it doesn't matter what Jorge Polanco's ceiling ends up being.  He is not (and will never be) nearly as good or as productive as Dozier.  Secondly, anyone paying attention to what Dozier has been saying to the media understands that the guy is miffed.  This is NOT a situation where Falvey and Levine can take their time, weigh their options, see how things play out, and then, if need be, simply sign Dozier to a contract extension.  What's going to happen is that Dozier is going to decide to test the open market even if Falvey and Levine decide to offer him an extension later this season.  In fact, Dozier has already made it clear that since the Twins have never called his agent even once to talk about a new contract, that he intends to become a free agent.  And the implication there is that once he hits the market, he's almost certainly gone.

Really?  Polanco had an OPS at age 23 that it took Dozier until he was 27 to best.  Polanco had an .870 OPS in the second half last year, a number Dozier has surpassed once.  I understand it was only half a season, but to say Polanco isn't capable of being as good as Dozier is inaccurate IMO. 

[twinsfanstreif]

The reason to be talking about this right now is because Brian Dozier is miffed that the Twins haven't even bothered contacting his agent once about a possible contract extension. Moreover, Dozier has made it clear in interviews to the media that he intends to test the open market after the season regardless of whether the Twins offer him a new deal at some point this season. At this point, the chances of Dozier being in the Twins uniform in 2019 is nearly zero. That's a huge roll of the dice for the Twins...and a gamble with odds very much stacked against them.

Understandable but it's also true that if we are in contention (which I think we will be) before the deadline then there's no justifiable reason to trade Dozier, even if we do lose him in the off season. I also find it silly to be talking as of this season is a moot point and we have no chance, it's spring training, I wanna talk about optimism for the season, lineups, position battles, and maybe some draft stuff

[Riverbrian]

Here is what I know for sure. People named Brian are very sensible people. 

 

Brian Dennehy

Brian Boitano

Brian Regan

Brian Doyle Murray

Brian Wilson

Brian Austen Green

 

Just look at that list and it can't be argued that Brian's clearly set the bar when it comes to common sense. 

 

The sensible thing to do when you are in your last year before free agency is have an amazing year and declare free agency and use that leverage to sign the biggest contract that you can. Nobody should blame Brian for wanting that. 

 

As for the Twins approaching his agent about an extension. They probably want more data before making the offer because they know that they would have to come up with significant dollars to get a sensible Brian to give up that free agent leverage that he has never had before. 

 

He's a Brian... He'll make the right decision for himself because Brian's are very sensible. 

[cjvirnig]

 

Dozier is opting for free agency for the same reason he refused to sign a contract extending into his free agency seasons: he wants to test the market and decide where he plays next season.

 

The question isn't whether Dozier is more valuable than Polanco or Gordon, it's whether Dozier is worth $60m+ over four seasons and the opportunity cost that brings with it (namely, the Twins badly need pitching yet have $15m or so less to spend on it next season).

 

If Gordon is a .750 OPS player with better defense (and he'll almost certainly be better defensively than Dozier is now) at $500k a season, that leaves the Twins a lot of money and options going into next season.

Again, I don't really agree with you.  For one thing, Brian Dozier has not "refused" to sign an extension with the Twins.  What's REALLY occurred is that the Twins have never even reached out to his representatives to even have informal discussions about a possible contract extension.  Not even the customary, "hey, howya doing" type of call to gauge the player's interest in possibly opening negotiations in earnest.  To me, that doesn't speak well of Falvey and Levine to treat a team leader in that manner.

 

Your other premise of "if Gordon is a .750 OPS player with better defense..." is also a very classic "what if" type scenario.  Even if Gordon ends up being a quality Big Leaguer, don't you think it might take him a couple seasons to really grow into the role (as has been the case with Buxton, Kepler, etc.)?  I think it's entirely possible that Gordon could hit .230 w/ 2 HR in his rookie season.  And under that scenario, I can guarantee you the Twins would desperately miss Dozier's bat and his clubhouse leadership.

 

In my opinion, there are 99 reasons to sign Dozier to an extension and only 1 reason not to: money.  And as we know, the Twins are going to be flush with cash after this season when Mauer's contract comes off the books.  Do you really think they're going to parlay those savings into signing an elite free agent pitcher (something they've never done in the history of the franchise)?

[cjvirnig]

Polanco will never have the power or run producing ability of Brian Dozier.  He will not come even remotely close.

Really?  Polanco had an OPS at age 23 that it took Dozier until he was 27 to best.  Polanco had an .870 OPS in the second half last year, a number Dozier has surpassed once.  I understand it was only half a season, but to say Polanco isn't capable of being as good as Dozier is inaccurate IMO. 

 

[cjvirnig]

 

Understandable but it's also true that if we are in contention (which I think we will be) before the deadline then there's no justifiable reason to trade Dozier, even if we do lose him in the off season. I also find it silly to be talking as of this season is a moot point and we have no chance, it's spring training, I wanna talk about optimism for the season, lineups, position battles, and maybe some draft stuff

I agree that if the Twins are in contention, there is zero chance of them trading Dozier at the deadline.  But the entire point, here, is that Falvey and Levine have made no overtures whatsoever about offering him a contract extension.  If reports are true (and there's no reason why they wouldn't be), the Twins front office has yet to even reach out to Dozier's representatives AT ALL.  Not even an informal "hey, howya doing" type call.  My question is: why not???  Dozier is rightly miffed at what he perceives to be not only a slight, but also a clear indication that he is not in the future plans of the Twins organization.  As I noted on another thread, there are 99 reasons why it makes sense for the Twins to re-sign Brian Dozier.  And there is only 1 reason not to: money.  But even in that scenario, the Twins are going to be flush with cash after this season, so that's not even really a huge concern.

[nicksaviking]

 

Here is what I know for sure. People named Brian are very sensible people. 

 

Brian Dennehy

Brian Boitano

Brian Regan

Brian Doyle Murray

Brian Wilson

Brian Austen Green

 

Just look at that list and it can't be argued that Brian's clearly set the bar when it comes to common sense. 

 

The sensible thing to do when you are in your last year before free agency is have an amazing year and declare free agency and use that leverage to sign the biggest contract that you can. Nobody should blame Brian for wanting that. 

 

As for the Twins approaching his agent about an extension. They probably want more data before making the offer because they know that they would have to come up with significant dollars to get a sensible Brian to give up that free agent leverage that he has never had before. 

 

He's a Brian... He'll make the right decision for himself because Brian's are very sensible. 

 

How did you forget about Brian Bosworth?

[Oxtung]

I'm not sure the FA market is going to be to Dozier's liking next year especially with the QO hanging around his neck. Over the last five years there have only been three players to sign any contract of note at 2B. Combine that with his reported trade returns last offseason and the picture is not Dozierific. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Polanco will never have the power or run producing ability of Brian Dozier. He will not come even remotely close.

First, there are more ways to provide production besides power.

 

Second, Polanco had a 50% higher milb HR rate than Dozier did, and has almost exactly the same mlb home run rate through his first 750 AB's as Dozier did.

 

Dozier's power came even more out of nowhere than Polanco's would have to, so it's actually pretty funny for anyone to make this statement.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

For one thing, Brian Dozier has not "refused" to sign an extension with the Twins.  

Dozier absolutely refused to sign an extension with the Twins; back when he signed his original contract, he adamantly refused to let the Twins buy out even a single free agency season.

 

So he didn't sign an extension at all, the Twins simply bought out seasons they already controlled at a fixed price. And Brian was the one who refused to sign that extension, not the Twins.

[Han Joelo]

 

Here is what I know for sure. People named Brian are very sensible people. 

 

Brian Dennehy

Brian Boitano

Brian Regan

Brian Doyle Murray

Brian Wilson

Brian Austen Green

 

Just look at that list and it can't be argued that Brian's clearly set the bar when it comes to common sense. 

 

The sensible thing to do when you are in your last year before free agency is have an amazing year and declare free agency and use that leverage to sign the biggest contract that you can. Nobody should blame Brian for wanting that. 

 

As for the Twins approaching his agent about an extension. They probably want more data before making the offer because they know that they would have to come up with significant dollars to get a sensible Brian to give up that free agent leverage that he has never had before. 

 

He's a Brian... He'll make the right decision for himself because Brian's are very sensible. 

I don't know about Brian Dennehy the person, but as an actor, I have to disagree with your contention.  Wait, not as an actor, but in a role as an actor.  As the small town sheriff in First Blood, he was not sensible at all.  The sensible thing to do would have been to buy John Rambo a nice steak dinner and a piece of delicious pie, and then give him a job chopping wood or maybe tending the grounds at the local library.  A lot of strife and heartache could've been avoided that way.

[Han Joelo]

 

Dozier absolutely refused to sign an extension with the Twins; back when he signed his original contract, he adamantly refused to let the Twins buy out even a single free agency season.

 

So he didn't sign an extension at all, the Twins simply bought out seasons they already controlled at a fixed price. And Brian was the one who refused to sign that extension, not the Twins.

Good point.  And if he hadn't agreed to that buyout, wouldn't he likely have gotten quite a bit more out of the arbitration process?  I think the tough thing here is that management did way too well with this deal.  Everybody knows it, including Dozier.  He seems like the type of guy who isn't going to carry a lot of bitterness about it, because I'm sure that he realizes that the deal could have gone a different way, too.  But that is the economics of baseball--the Twins can "afford" to make a mistake like Phil Hughes' extension because they scored with his.  Maybe the players union should socialize, pool all their salaries, and then pay each other what they are really worth, year to year.

[Oxtung]

 

Good point.  And if he hadn't agreed to that buyout, wouldn't he likely have gotten quite a bit more out of the arbitration process?  I think the tough thing here is that management did way too well with this deal.  Everybody knows it, including Dozier.  He seems like the type of guy who isn't going to carry a lot of bitterness about it, because I'm sure that he realizes that the deal could have gone a different way, too.  But that is the economics of baseball--the Twins can "afford" to make a mistake like Phil Hughes' extension because they scored with his.  Maybe the players union should socialize, pool all their salaries, and then pay each other what they are really worth, year to year.

It's hard to know exactly what Dozier would have been awarded in arbitration because Cano, Kinzler, Carpenter, Kipnis, Altuve have all signed extensions. However, how much do you think that "cost certainty" saved the Twins?

 

Dozier made $20 million over 4 years. In comparison Manny Machado just finished his arbitration years and he made $33 million going year to year.

 

So yeah, the Twins probably saved themselves some money but we're talking only a couple of million dollars a year, at the most. That isn't going to prevent them, or allow them, to sign any contract. 

[Riverbrian]

 

I don't know about Brian Dennehy the person, but as an actor, I have to disagree with your contention.  Wait, not as an actor, but in a role as an actor.  As the small town sheriff in First Blood, he was not sensible at all.  The sensible thing to do would have been to buy John Rambo a nice steak dinner and a piece of delicious pie, and then give him a job chopping wood or maybe tending the grounds at the local library.  A lot of strife and heartache could've been avoided that way.

 

His character name in First Blood was Will Teasle. 

 

That's what makes the movie so brilliant. Will's are notorious for being Nonsensical people. 

 

Will Ferrell

Will Rogers

Will Smith

Will Clark

Will Middlebrooks

Will Venable

 

You see what I mean? 

 

Back to Brian Dozier... He has been under the control of the Twins since he came out of college at age 22 in 2009. For 9 years the Twins have controlled him through his prime years. Great for us but this is now his chance to sign with who he wants for as much as he can get. He finally has control of the rest of his career. I hope he signs with us... but if he does not... I will be happy for him... he's earned every penny he gets. 

 

If I was an MLB player of his caliber... There is no way I give up a single year of Free Agency unless I am blown away with an offer. I'm not saying I wouldn't return to my team... but there is no way I'm giving up a single year of free agency. Players are waiting patiently for this moment. 

 

I can only assume that the Twins would have to do much better than the QO for at least a couple of years to get him to give up FA with an extension and if that's the case... you might as well roll the dice, offer him a QO and see if his market settles in at a lower number. It's possible because 2B is pretty well stocked across the league. 

 

Or heaven forbid... if we are out of contention at the Deadline. If Dozier is playing well... he might be worth a nice rental return. If we are in contention... you'll want him in a contract year. 

[yarnivek1972]

There is zero chance he gets moved if the Twins are in contention.

 

None.

I would point out that when the Twins were in contention in 2001, they traded their most experienced position player (and only realistic leadoff hitter) for a middling starting pitcher.

 

There’s no such thing as “never” in baseball.

[USAFChief]

There’s no such thing as “never” in baseball.

There’s never a never?

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

There’s never a never?

Never!

[ashbury]

Never!

There’s no such thing as “never” in baseball.