REPORT: Twins Lose JT Chargois On Waivers

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

It was a bad draft strategy at the time. It looks even worse in retrospect. Let's hope he gets healthy and pitches a few years in the majors here or elsewhere. 

 

I find that statement odd given how well that class has turned out.

[Mike Sixel]

I find that statement odd given how well that class has turned out.

What ? Literally have no idea what the class has to do with the failed strategy of drafting relief pitchers over a few years. Help me out. I am not the first to post this in this thread either.

[bird]

 

Is it typical across MLB for something like 90 percent of a farm system's flame throwers to consistently injure and re-injure their elbows? 

 

This is a good question. Regardless of what our opinions are about a "strategy" that started ten years ago under the old regime, or how much of that strategy was about simply adding high-velo prospects (aren't ALL pitchers hard throwers?) versus converting relievers into starters, a look at the injury history is shocking.

 

Here's a list of the high-velo guys drafted between #27 overall, Gutierrez, and #130 overall, Zach Jones, over that ten=year period. I've added in Jay at the end, but view him as separate from any conscious "strategy" myself. Same with Berrios.:

 

Gutierrez #27

Hunt #31

Bashore #46

Bullock #70

Tootle #101

Boyd #55

Boer #87

Bard #42

Melotakis #63

Chargois #72

Jones #130

Burdi #46

Cedaroth #79

Reed #140

Curtiss #170 (is he high-velo?)

Jay #6

 

So, that's 16 prospects. How many of these guys have failed exclusively on the basis of unrealized talent? How many gave it up due to injury or addiction in at least one case? How many have seen their upside curtailed, or at least delayed, due to injury?

 

I wonder how much better we are now at caring for these arms than we were even back in 2012 or 2014. Like you, jimbo, I wonder if this dreadful injury record is anomalous, or if other organizations are pointing to somewhat similar stuff.

 

[TheLeviathan]

Well, I don't know of many teams that have tried that sort of thing and it's hard to imagine the failure being any worse than it appears to be at this point.  

[bird]

 

What ? Literally have no idea what the class has to do with the failed strategy of drafting relief pitchers over a few years. Help me out. I am not the first to post this in this thread either.

 

 

I suppose one could point to 2012 and mention Duffey, Rogers, and Berrios while lamenting Bard, Melotakis, Chargois, and even Zach Jones in the 4th round. Maybe Gonsalves and Slegers in 2013, although we didn't really draft a flame thrower in 2013.

[bird]

 

Well, I don't know of many teams that have tried that sort of thing and it's hard to imagine the failure being any worse than it appears to be at this point.  

 

Other teams have drafted flame-throwers in the 2nd and 3rd rounds over the last 10 years. It would be interesting to see what the injury record looks like for that universe, and also the success record of course.

[nicksaviking]

 

What ? Literally have no idea what the class has to do with the failed strategy of drafting relief pitchers over a few years. Help me out. I am not the first to post this in this thread either.

 

I think there might be two different arguments. Drafting relief pitchers and drafting hard throwers. 

 

The non-hard throwing relievers have actually been working out pretty well in Duffey, Rogers and Hildenberger. TBD on Reed.

 

And in all honesty, at the time I was only OK with the drafting hard throwing relievers exclusively because of the 'hard throwing' aspect which the team was sorely lacking. I still want to find that velocity somewhere, but I was wrong on that account I guess.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

What ? Literally have no idea what the class has to do with the failed strategy of drafting relief pitchers over a few years. Help me out. I am not the first to post this in this thread either.

 

I'm saying they did a really good job finding talent in that class (which I'd add was considered a weak class)... I'd add that with things like the bonus pool, you have to look at the class as a whole too, you cannot cherry pick the Chargois pick and say it was a bad strategy as signing considerations without question play into it.

 

Chargois wasn't a bad prospect in his own right either, especially given where he was drafted. He's simply failed. That's normal. 

 

They went RP heavy in the 2012 class. That wasn't, I might add, their standard procedure for all classes. 

[Hrbowski]

Goes to the Dodgers. IMO, another terrible, but avoidable loss.

[bird]

 

I think there might be two different arguments. Drafting relief pitchers and drafting hard throwers. 

 

The non-hard throwing relievers have actually been working out pretty well in Duffey, Rogers and Hildenberger. TBD on Reed.

 

And in all honesty, at the time I was only OK with the drafting hard throwing relievers exclusively because of the 'hard throwing' aspect which the team was sorely lacking. I still want to find that velocity somewhere, but I was wrong on that account I guess.

 

That's probably a good distinction. The other thing that gets lost on people is how inconsequential it was to try to use 2nd to 4th round picks to maybe find a diamond in the rough. So very few of thos draft selections ever even make it to the pros, and of those, even fewer make an impact.

 

This "strategy" of looking for flame-thrower conversion candidates started in 2011. All relevant candidates were 2nd to 4th round selections. The question might be, if we didn't shoot for this type of prospect, would we have been much more likely to find a gem?

 

I just looked at the drafts in those rounds for the Twins, Cards, Cubs, Yanks, Braves, and Astros. These are teams with excellent reputations for draft prowess. In terms of sheer numbers who have played MLB, there isn't any difference. I think Chargois' 0.2 WAR gets him about third place, eking out J.R. Graham. Of course, as you'd expect, there's a homer and a grand slam out there in Alex Wood and this Aaron Judge guy. But I think it's a fair argument to say taking shot at adding a few high-velo arms over a 3-4 year stretch using those longer-shot picks, wasn't grotesquely misguided. I think the bigger questions relate to the injury histories and whether the organization was behing the times with respect to taining and health standards.

 

 

[FunnyPenguin]

Ouch...so if it was for Cobb or Lynn, they now cost JT as well as a future draft pick.....better be a steal

[Vanimal46]

Good luck to him in LA. It's going to be tough to separate himself from their loaded system of players.

 

I don't see it as a big loss for Minnesota.

[ScooterDance]

Startups are often valued higher before they make their first dollar. As soon as you have dollars in the bank you have a track record. If that track record isn’t unicorn level growth good luck.

 

Much the same with pitchers. Gonsalves is probably a #4 as his most likely outcome in a reasonable / slightly optimistic viewpoint. Maybe he finds it and becomes a 2/3. Maybe he struggles some but latches on as a 4/5 depth guy with occasional flashes. Maybe he washes out within a couple years. Maybe his arm falls off throwing a slider next week.

 

Lamenting that Lynn might cost us chargois and a future 2nd round pick, when somebody who is a consensus top handful prospect in our org would be considered a really good draft choice if he has the career of Lynn or Cobb (because he made it to the show and had even moderate success there), seems silly to me.

[Tomj14]

 

 

This "strategy" of looking for flame-thrower conversion candidates started in 2011. All relevant candidates were 2nd to 4th round selections. The question might be, if we didn't shoot for this type of prospect, would we have been much more likely to find a gem?

 

I don't like at it as a bad draft strategy, I think the bad strategy was holding onto the "high" prospects way too long. 

Basically none of them helped the Twins in anyway and hurt them possibly by taking up Roster spots. That is why we need to draft some of our b- or better prospects for help at the major league level. 

[AceWrigley]

He's only pitched 113 innings in 5 years, mostly due to injuries.  And, he's not healthy now.  The Wizards of Twinkiedom probably feel there is more value to be found in other pitchers in the system.  Will be interesting to see how they fill the empty 40-man seat.

[ashbury]

How long until the Dodgers waive and designate for assignment Chargois? One of my pet peeves. I'd place the over-under around March 15, I suppose.

[nicksaviking]

 

How long until the Dodgers waive and designate for assignment Chargois? One of my pet peeves. I'd place the over-under around March 15, I suppose.

 

Yeah, the only surprising thing about this is that it wasn't the Orioles or Blue Jays running this scam this time.

 

Not yet anyway.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

How long until the Dodgers waive and designate for assignment Chargois? One of my pet peeves. I'd place the over-under around March 15, I suppose.

I would imagine Chargois would prefer to stay on a 40-man roster as long as possible. Better pay, benefits, likelihood of getting called up, insurance in case of injury (60-day MLB DL versus minor league disabled list), etc.

[d-mac]

Goes to the Dodgers. IMO, another terrible, but avoidable loss.

Whoops.

[ashbury]

I would imagine Chargois would prefer to stay on a 40-man roster as long as possible. Better pay, benefits, likelihood of getting called up, insurance in case of injury (60-day MLB DL versus minor league disabled list), etc.

Which comes at the expense of some other nice fellow who would get those benefits instead. I'm all for the players, but this is a zero-sum game for them. It's an annoyance for a fan like me, who follows prospects to some degree, with no real overall value to the game as a whole, since for example my Dodgers counterparts probably are saying "ho hum".

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Which comes at the expense of some other nice fellow who would get those benefits instead. I'm all for the players, but this is a zero-sum game for them.

Not necessarily. The Dodgers transferred Urias to the 60-day DL to add Chargois. They are now employing 41 players on their 40 man roster.

[Brandon]

This is a good question. Regardless of what our opinions are about a "strategy" that started ten years ago under the old regime, or how much of that strategy was about simply adding high-velo prospects (aren't ALL pitchers hard throwers?) versus converting relievers into starters, a look at the injury history is shocking.

 

Here's a list of the high-velo guys drafted between #27 overall, Gutierrez, and #130 overall, Zach Jones, over that ten=year period. I've added in Jay at the end, but view him as separate from any conscious "strategy" myself. Same with Berrios.:

 

Gutierrez #27

Hunt #31

Bashore #46

Bullock #70

Tootle #101

Boyd #55

Boer #87

Bard #42

Melotakis #63

Chargois #72

Jones #130

Burdi #46

Cedaroth #79

Reed #140

Curtiss #170 (is he high-velo?)

Jay #6

 

So, that's 16 prospects. How many of these guys have failed exclusively on the basis of unrealized talent? How many gave it up due to injury or addiction in at least one case? How many have seen their upside curtailed, or at least delayed, due to injury?

 

I wonder how much better we are now at caring for these arms than we were even back in 2012 or 2014. Like you, jimbo, I wonder if this dreadful injury record is anomalous, or if other organizations are pointing to somewhat similar stuff.

Jesse Crain says Hi.

2nd round draft success.

[Thrylos]

 

I'd like to see Slegers get an extended look in the pen. Towering righthander without much velocity but with control that's unique for large men? Seems like Jon Rauch is a pretty close comp. 

 

He needs to see Rauch's ink man

[ChrisKnutson]

Despite losing Chargois hopefully this means more moves, like signing Lance Lynn. Also I'd also like to see more minor league invitations that would be more competitive than the likes of Sanchez, Casey Crosby, Myles Jaye, and Jordan Pacheco. 

 

Having veterans in camp is one thing, having veterans who can still ball is another. So in that case I hope the Twins can sign Jason Grilli, Sueng Hwan Oh, Oliver Perez, Trevor Cahill, and Matt Belisle. And if we're unable to land Lynn, just sign Nolasco (2nd time's a charm) and R.A Dickey (if he isn't retired).

 

Yeah we got Addison Reed, but I 100% believe that Rodney and Duke will not be with the Twins by the end of the season (you heard here first), so preparing for the worst isn't a waste of time or money imo.

[weitz41]

is frustrated with this offseason...

[Taildragger8791]

 

That's probably a good distinction. The other thing that gets lost on people is how inconsequential it was to try to use 2nd to 4th round picks to maybe find a diamond in the rough. So very few of thos draft selections ever even make it to the pros, and of those, even fewer make an impact.

 

This "strategy" of looking for flame-thrower conversion candidates started in 2011. All relevant candidates were 2nd to 4th round selections. The question might be, if we didn't shoot for this type of prospect, would we have been much more likely to find a gem?

 

Tyler Jay was a #6 overall pick and was part of that run of college relievers.

[bird]

 

Tyler Jay was a #6 overall pick and was part of that run of college relievers.

 

You'll note I included him in a look at high-velo draft picks going back 10 years. The question, first posed by jimbo, that I was trying to shed light on was how many in this universe have had injuries, with a thought that maybe some day we'll understand if our organization's injury history with these flame-throwers is much different than the experience of other clubs.

 

Separately, I looked at a sampling of draft results involving picks from rounds 2,3, and 4, for 2011, 2012, and 2013, the most active years for the Twins in targeting these high-velo guys. We know what our team's results were: bad. So, I thought it would be interesting to gain a better idea of what the consequences were. Meaning, are the chances very good that we'd have had better draft results if instead we had targeted catchers or something. I compared our 3-year record against 5 teams with very solid reputations as talent evaluators, looking at the sheer number of picks in that range who have made a MLB roster, and discovered that there really isn't any difference in those 3 years for those 6 clubs, each averaging about one player each year, occasionally two, but in all but two cases, even the players that "made it" were guys in the same camp as JT Chargois and JR Graham. The two exceptions, Alex Wood and Aaron Judge, aren't relevant to the answer I was seeking.

 

It'll be interesting to hear what Falvey has to say over time about high-velo prospects. He's shown an interest in "spin rate" guys. I'd love to be a fly on the wall in a few of their meetings on the subject.

[darin617]

 

I would imagine Chargois would prefer to stay on a 40-man roster as long as possible. Better pay, benefits, likelihood of getting called up, insurance in case of injury (60-day MLB DL versus minor league disabled list), etc.

 

Of course the player wants to remain on a 40 man roster. GM's like to see if they can slip one though at times.

 

I just hope this is not one of those things that they are quickly dropping guys they didn't draft. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Why did the Twins do this?

[h2oface]

 

He's only pitched 113 innings in 5 years, mostly due to injuries.  And, he's not healthy now.  The Wizards of Twinkiedom probably feel there is more value to be found in other pitchers in the system.  Will be interesting to see how they fill the empty 40-man seat.

 

Twinkiedom? I think I am gonna puke.