What is the end game?

[Twins33]

That's what is so strange about this, and what makes me so suspicious that there is some sort of collusion going on, in which teams are somehow agreeing not to make any offer over $100mm, for example.

I know it's just an example but reports are that Darvish has multiple 100M+ offers and Martinez has one from the Red Sox.

 

I personally don't think collusion, just because it's always been bad to give older players big money and lots of years. They did it anyway. Now front offices are getting smarter and looking at the aging curves and data that has been out there for a long time and deciding "why were we doing this? That was dumb."

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There are a good number of posters on TD who don't want Darvish at 6 years. While I might disagree, I can certainly understand why others don't feel like paying 25+ M annually to a pitcher who will finish the contract at age 38.

Nitpick, but Darvish would only be 37 at the end of a 6-year deal (in his age-36 season, as his birthday is in August).

[Kelly Vance]

The owners see revenues rising and the players want some of it. Same old, same old. The minimum salary in 1969 was under $25K. But you could also buy a new Volkswagen Beetle for $ 1,000. 

 

Now players are mostly millionaires. Not really much to complain about since they make tons for playing a child's game. Meanwhile, season tickets are increasingly prohibitively expensive for most people, and it breaks many family budgets to take the kids to a ball game.  

 

We will never see a return to reasonable ticket prices now, and who wants to spend $10 on a beer?  

 

But the market is what it is.... sign Yu and swallow hard. 

[laloesch]

 

The owners see revenues rising and the players want some of it. Same old, same old. The minimum salary in 1969 was under $25K. But you could also buy a new Volkswagen Beetle for $ 1,000. 

 

Now players are mostly millionaires. Not really much to complain about since they make tons for playing a child's game. Meanwhile, season tickets are increasingly prohibitively expensive for most people, and it breaks many family budgets to take the kids to a ball game.  

 

We will never see a return to reasonable ticket prices now, and who wants to spend $10 on a beer?  

 

But the market is what it is.... sign Yu and swallow hard. 

 

Here's the problem.  75% of the leagues franchises do not have anywhere close to the same revenues that the top 4 or 5 teams in the league do.  In fact on average most teams have approximately 200 million less in revenues when compared to the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs and Giants. 

 

That's a HUGE problem for parity in baseball.  If you have a select few franchises that have almost twice as much money as the average MLB team you end up with huge disparities in payroll and all the good players going to those top 4 or 5 teams and significant cyclical tanking from the bottom feeders (that's not collusion by the way).

 

Now the question is what do you do with the bottom feeder teams in terms of revenue?  A Division 2, with the Rays, Marlins, A's, Reds, Brewers, Royals, Rockies, Twins, O's.  Or do you just contract all the low market teams that just can't generate enough revenue?

 

I just don't see a solution here other than a hard cap or accept that some teams will always have better players and will plunder the AAAA teams when they need talent.  

[Blackjack]

 

.  Unfortunately due to the lack of a hard salary cap, the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc. about 7 or 8 teams have pushed salaries so high that mid to low level teams have to intentionally tank in order to have a chance at competing.  

I think that they need a hard salary cap, it would put the smaller teams on an equal footing with the big teams, the high spending Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox. etc.  Throw in a salary minimum to keep the players happy. It would make all teams more competitive and would reward teams that truly do a good job of evaluating talent.  Win, win, win all the way around.

[KirbyDome89]

 

If there is no collusion then teams are getting smart and are relying on younger guys who give better bang for the buck. That's their choice to make but the player's union should then be pushing for players to hit arbitration and free agency sooner -- "if you're not going to pay players later in their career, then the revenue needs to shift younger." They'll need to show a trend that this is happening (average career shorter, average free agent contract shorter/cheaper) but there will be a reaction.

 

My guess is this will be at the center of the next labor discussions.

Hitting arbitration sooner seems more than fair. Cutting years of team control would be pushing the pendulum even further in favor of large market teams. Maybe if it was accompanied by a hard cap but I can't see why the players union would (or should,) agree to a hard cap. 

[laloesch]

 

The owners see revenues rising and the players want some of it. Same old, same old. The minimum salary in 1969 was under $25K. But you could also buy a new Volkswagen Beetle for $ 1,000. 

 

Now players are mostly millionaires. Not really much to complain about since they make tons for playing a child's game. Meanwhile, season tickets are increasingly prohibitively expensive for most people, and it breaks many family budgets to take the kids to a ball game.  

 

We will never see a return to reasonable ticket prices now, and who wants to spend $10 on a beer?  

 

But the market is what it is.... sign Yu and swallow hard. 

 

$10???  LOL.  Last time i was home in Cincy I went to a game with my dad and brother and a 16 ounce beer was 15 dollars!

 

I want to sign Yu but my fear is that it's going end up being a really really bad deal in year 3 or 4 and if the Twins cave and give him six years at close 30 mil a season? Ufff-da  

[laloesch]

 

I think that they need a hard salary cap, it would put the smaller teams on an equal footing with the big teams, the high spending Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox. etc.  Throw in a salary minimum to keep the players happy. It would make all teams more competitive and would reward teams that truly do a good job of evaluating talent.  Win, win, win all the way around.

 

Well the minimum salary is currently 500K i think.  Increase that to whatever the floor should be for and that could be the compromise.  That would be better for the MLB players collectively as a whole but you will never get the MLB players Union to agree to that because of the hard cap.  LIke i said I think were headed for strike before 2021.

[laloesch]

 

There probably is some collusion. It's hard to prove but I'm sure the league and some important owners have decided that salaries are going to remain low or grow slower than revenues would suggest. Steve Adams reported a bit on this fight at mlbtraderumors. 

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/scott-boras-dan-halem-mlb-free-agency.html

 

"“I find it interesting that free agents have nine-figure offers since the CBA mandates that teams not share that sort of information,” said Boras. “I am also curious how a public statement communicated to all teams about offers on the table and players demanding too much money from a central league office … is any different from the infamous ’information bank’ in the 1980s.” ....

 

To Boras’ credit, it does seem curious that the league’s statement would openly acknowledge the size of offers that some players have received. In addition to running counter to the CBA, the comments hardly paint players in a favorable light at a time in which commissioner Rob Manfred is spearheading efforts to broadly expand the game’s appeal to a younger audience. If anything, today’s statement only furthers the popular “greedy player” narrative — one which often ignores that the alternative is for the even wealthier owners to simply pocket money not spent on player contracts.

While those numbers weren’t exactly a secret after being leaked to the media by various sources, likely from both the agent and team side of the equation in various cases, it was nonetheless surprising to see the league stating those numbers in a factual manner (even if it was merely in reference to media reports; it’s not clear which was the case in this instance)."

 

I don't buy it.  

 

I take everything Boras says with a grain of salt.  It's like picking sides in a divorce court.  You have to realize the bias of both sides and that Boras is one voice on the side of the premier free agents who will fetch top dollar and ohhh he gets rich in the process. 

 

As a fan i'm more interested in a competitive league and not squabbling owners and players who get rich off me the fan.

[sthpstm]

The current CBA lasts through the 2021 season, correct?

It seems like we should expect big changes, or at least that we all would generally agree some changes are needed, like higher pay for players pre-arb and during arb. If I'm a team I'd be concerned about having too many players signed at a high salary for 2022 or beyond if I also expect little production from them. Could this have any impact on not offering guys longer deals?

[Shane Wahl]

Some of this has to be about the number of years these players want, and not the dollar amount. Teams are going to be smarter about this.

[ewen21]

 

I think Darvish deal is holding everything else back. 

DARVISH is to blame for that.

 

Last year he was:

20th in WAR among pitchers

17th in WHIP

35th in ERA

 

In 2016:

54th in WAR among pitchers
19th in WHIP
36th in ERA

 

2015:

Injured reserve

 

2014:

38th in WAR among pitchers
74th in WHIP
34th in ERA

 

Honestly.  The guy is not that good.

Yet here he is holding out for a contract he in no way has earned.

 

A player like Darvish makes me side with the owners.  I can understand trying to get the most money you can for yourself, but this guy is delusional.  It isn't like he has established a trademark of consistency.  He is heading toward his declining years, too.  He should be absolutely thrilled to get anything over 100 million.

 

I think he is greedy even by baseball players standards.

[ewen21]

The owners take the risks and the players just play the game.  They get compensated for very nicely for it being employees.  They make guaranteed money like no other.  Average baseball salaries have increased by over 20,000% since the first collective bargaining agreement in 1968.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2016/04/07/average-baseball-salary-up-20700-since-first-cba-in-1968/#1d7d48403e48

 

THis site is way too sympathetic toward the players, in my opinion.  There is no such career in the world that sustains just a ridiculous upward trend in salaries for that many years.  A correction is happening.  Why is this so hard for the players to grasp?  

 

 

[jimmer]

I think the players and their agents have greatly misread todays market for players. There are supposedly huge deals being turned down. Players are supposedly getting big offers just not as big as they THINK they should be getting. I am guessing too many players are looking at old school numbers and trying to apply those to ehat they should get paid while teams are beung analytical. They all wish Dave Stewart would come back.

[Mike Sixel]

What risks, exactly, are owners taking? In a "normal" business, there is downside risk in your investment. NO SPORTS TEAM EVER has been sold for an RoR that was bad/low. The owners are taking pretty much no risk at all. 

[jimmer]

To no ones surprise, Loria will not be sharing any profits from the sale of the Marlins with the county that homed them. He has found loopholes to the provision that he was supposedly to share a chunk of the profits if he ever sold the team.

[Aaron Cross]

Couldn’t agree more Ewen. Nice to see owners standing up to the insanity. If the union calls that collusion so be it.

[nicksaviking]

I don't think there's any collusion. I think the bad teams have realized that a 75 win season doesn't do their bottom line any better than a 65 win season but due to draft picks, payroll flexibility and a lack of long term contracts, a 65 win season is a much quicker path to contention as counter-intuitive as it might sound.

 

Additionally, I think the smart front offices are realizing that the abilities between an expensive veteran and a cheap young player are too often negligible. With all the technological innovations and advances made throughout the game, the minor leaguers are much more prepared for the majors than they were two decades ago.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

To no ones surprise, Loria will not be sharing any profits from the sale of the Marlins with the county that homed them. He has found loopholes to the provision that he was supposedly to share a chunk of the profits if he ever sold the team.

Exactly. Alas...

[SF Twins Fan]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/nightengales-latest-martinez-encarnacion-darvish-arrieta.html

 

Updates on where the top FA's are at.

[laloesch]

 

The owners take the risks and the players just play the game.  They get compensated for very nicely for it being employees.  They make guaranteed money like no other.  Average baseball salaries have increased by over 20,000% since the first collective bargaining agreement in 1968.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2016/04/07/average-baseball-salary-up-20700-since-first-cba-in-1968/#1d7d48403e48

 

THis site is way too sympathetic toward the players, in my opinion.  There is no such career in the world that sustains just a ridiculous upward trend in salaries for that many years.  A correction is happening.  Why is this so hard for the players to grasp?  

 

And the fans.  I for one would like to not have my cable bill increase 15-20% every year, because most of that money is going to sports teams that i have no control or say of.  Just wait till internet TV really takes off like sling (it's already started); all these sweet heart deals will start to go away and then the proverbial you know what will hit the fan. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

And the fans.  I for one would like to not have my cable bill increase 15-20% every year, because most of that money is going to sports teams that i have no control or say of.  Just wait till internet TV really takes off like sling (it's already started); all these sweet heart deals will start to go away and then the proverbial you know what will hit the fan. 

Fox just agreed to increase the payment for Thursday night football by nearly 20%.......so, not looking like it is dying any time soon.

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

There must be some level of collusion on both the players and the owners side. Someone would've blinked by now.

 

That being said, I think the greatest influence on the owners side

1) teams on the winning trend are trying to beat the luxury tax ahead of what is expected to be a banner off season next year for free agents

2) teams on the losing trend are restocking the prospect list and waiting for an uptrend to make a move

 

On the players side

1) High end players are trying to wait out the market that may not come to them

2) next tier are waiting out the first tier as the market setters

3) winning trend teams are filling their gaps with the third tier of players that aren't waiting out the market.

[Vanimal46]

 

I don't think there's any collusion. I think the bad teams have realized that a 75 win season doesn't do their bottom line any better than a 65 win season but due to draft picks, payroll flexibility and a lack of long term contracts, a 65 win season is a much quicker path to contention as counter-intuitive as it might sound.

 

Additionally, I think the smart front offices are realizing that the abilities between an expensive veteran and a cheap young player are too often negligible. With all the technological innovations and advances made throughout the game, the minor leaguers are much more prepared for the majors than they were two decades ago.

 

Agreed with all of this. And the fact that it's never been easier for an MLB owner to make boatloads of money without worrying about winning. This nugget came from an MLBTradeRumors post about Miami potentially being in trouble not using their revenues shared from MLB.

 

 

Jackson reports that the Marlins are set to receive roughly $60MM in revenue sharing profits this season and could take home as much as $160MM from the league between that sum, the $50MM BAMTech payout that all 30 clubs are receiving and the national television contract.

 

The Marlins may take home $160MM in profit without even touching the field this year. It's not like they have to win any games to make a good profit. Compared to years past where the thought was winning games makes you more money. 

 

[gunnarthor]

I think the owners 'tank to win' narrative is overstated. To the extent that they needed to, the Cubs, especially, but even the Astros spent a lot of money. I think owners have seen how the Astros and Marlins have tanked and still brought in record profits when they were losing 100 games and had zero ratings. The tank to win thing just gives them cover.

 

If half the teams in the league are trying to lose to get the #1 pick and more international pool money, it's not going to be a workable solution.

[Oxtung]

 

The owners take the risks and the players just play the game.  They get compensated for very nicely for it being employees.  They make guaranteed money like no other.  Average baseball salaries have increased by over 20,000% since the first collective bargaining agreement in 1968.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2016/04/07/average-baseball-salary-up-20700-since-first-cba-in-1968/#1d7d48403e48

 

THis site is way too sympathetic toward the players, in my opinion.  There is no such career in the world that sustains just a ridiculous upward trend in salaries for that many years.  A correction is happening.  Why is this so hard for the players to grasp?  

 

 

As ridiculous as that sounds, since 2002 team revenues have risen at an even faster rate.  As crazy as you think the players contracts are, the amount the teams are bringing in is more obscene.  That doesn't even take into account the amount that teams have been valued at.....

 

 

[ewen21]

Athletes, baseball players in particular, have had pay increases that have gone through the troposphere.  This is not some boom industry that produces something for the benefit of humankind.  This is entertainment.  The owners are giving the players some necessary pushback.  For anyone who wants to counter with, "but the owners....." save it.  I have no interest in defending them.  Fact is, this insanity has to stop.  If it did not then by 2025 we'd have players making 100,000,000 a year.  The only thing moving that fast is the National Debt.  These contracts are getting more and more ridiculous.  Lorenzo Cain is a nice player, but going into his 32 year old season he is given 75 million in guaranteed money.  Absolute insanity if you ask me.

 

Again.  Baseball is entertainment. These men play a child's game.  We all love it, but the players are getting to be so cushioned from reality it is hard to take.  Watching baseball for me has been a passion for almost 40 years.  One might say an addiction.  If these players begin to counter with some kind of sit-out thing I don't know if I can stand it.  I walked away for several years after the last strike and hockey was my #1 sport.

 

These players need to read the fan base.  It costs so much more to attend a ballgame now and as Laloesch pointed out, cable companies continue to raise rates largely because these sports franchises play with Monopoly money and the players are more than just complicit in this.  I would love to see a hard salary cap in baseball.  I would love to see owners be able to take back money for the team from underperforming players.  As it is, the system is set up where players have been able to hold up the owners with ridiculous guaranteed contracts that almost always contain several years where the team takes it on the chin at the end,

 

This is going to be like the housing market, I hope.  I want to see the players eat some humble pie

[twinssporto]

This has been a fascinating off-season to watch.  I hope Harvard Business School or some other institution does a case study on this whole topic.  From a purely business perspective you have a number of things going on: BTW, I am not taking a position for owners or players...

 

1. I think the GM's have gotten a lot smarter when analyzing these FA contracts.  I don't know the systems, metrics or the logarithms they are using but they may have wised up when it comes to the length of the contracts they extend to 30+ year olds.  It doesn't look like a dollar-per-year issue but a length of time issue. 

 

2. The payroll tax has really come into play this year.  When two big market teams like the Yankees and Dodgers are trying to get under that limit they will not be aggressive and won't commit the dollars to these FA's (thus driving down the value of the free-agents services). Clark poorly negotiated this item and will get hammered for it by the Players Union. Just wait and see...

 

3. Nothing and I mean nothing ever grows all the way to the sky.  Stocks, businesses, incomes, home values, etc.  Free agency is a great mechanism for players to really see what the market can bear when it comes to salaries and compensation.  However, for some of these guys now and into the future the always rising pay may have just leveled off or even dropped.  That's economics 101.  

 

4.  Point number #3 above is valid BARRING ANY OWNER COLLUSION.  I bolded that statement because its one of the biggest reasons people give when asked why the big names haven't been signed yet. I am somewhat skeptical about collusion taking place with the owners for a number of reasons:  First it is very illegal (I know people break laws everyday) but this takes some considerable logistics and planning on their part. Secondly, the owners got hammered by this back in 1987.  It would boggle my mind if they did that (not saying it can't) but unlikely.  Is it collusion when one free-agent already signed for $80mm? Is it collusion when Yu Darvish is getting $100 million dollar offers and turning them down because he wants $150 million dollars?  I can't answer that but its a hard argument to make.

 

Not sure where all of this is headed but it's interesting to watch.  As a Twins fan I'm glad the Yankees and Dodgers are holding back.  I'd like to see us get a great FA this year and at a good price!

[gunnarthor]

I guess I don't get your anger. Sports is a billion dollar industry. It's not a game. It's very hard work. I'd rather that the players get paid more and owners get paid less. That's basically the only two options. Ticket prices aren't going down. Fans aren't going to get a discount. The game is incredibly popular now and that's because the players, not the owners, have made it so. Why on earth anyone would root for the owners to make more money is beyond me. 

[Oxtung]

 

I guess I don't get your anger. Sports is a billion dollar industry. It's not a game. It's very hard work. I'd rather that the players get paid more and owners get paid less. That's basically the only two options. Ticket prices aren't going down. Fans aren't going to get a discount. The game is incredibly popular now and that's because the players, not the owners, have made it so. Why on earth anyone would root for the owners to make more money is beyond me. 

 

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