Ervin Santana had Surgery Today

[Connor Gould]

Things can change dramatically in the next week or so (fingers crossed,)

 

I see what you did there.

[nicksaviking]

On this, I'm a silver lining guy. Partly because I don't trust Santana and regardless of when he comes back, this injury is going to at least cause some nagging doubt in those calling the shots. In other words, his leash will be shorter than it would be if he was healthy.

 

But mostly, this will prevent the timeless Twins tradition of fence straddling! Now if they don't sign Darvish or trade for a front line starter, they are all but telling the fans that this team isn't as good as last year's not-good-enough team. Now if they want to sell the fans on contention they HAVE to make a bold move. Otherwise, it's just the same old Twins.

 

They can't stand pat on this one and win the pot; have to go all-in or fold.

[KirbyDome89]

 

For one thing, Berrios, who’s probably the best starter on the team, should contribute more this April than the nothing he was allowed to give last year. Gibson and Mejia should be better than Gibson and Mejia. Santiago was super lucky last April, albeit with good results until karma reversed in May, as was Hughes, who nonetheless still produced bad results. With the exception of 2017 Berrios, the aggregate of pitchers 6-10 in 2018 should be better than 2017. Also, the bullpen should be improved, which, although not fixing the gap from Santana’s loss, does mitigate it.

With Ervin, yes, I agree that it's likely a better rotation to start this year.

 

I was looking at the current rotation and how they're going to bridge the gap until Erv returns so I only considered this April vs. last year's starting five in April. 

 

You're right, Berrios is definitely an upgrade. Mejia should be able to top 9 IPs in 3 games and Gibson really can't be much worse than that 8.00 ERA. But, even with that improvement they're still looking at a 4 and 5 spot full of serious questions or unknowns and it's highly unlikely that 2 of the starters are dominant for the entire month. IMO if the season started tomorrow I think the Twins would be in for a rougher start to this season than the last. 

[RaoulDuke]

I think they were already going to add to the top of the rotation with one of the top 4 free agent guys or a trade.  Maybe this forces them to pull the trigger on a depth addition like Garcia/ Tillman/ Miley.  

 

This injury popping up right before spring training may actually make this weird slow off season work in their favor, as there would normally be slim pickings left.

 

[FormerMinnasotan]

Well now they really have to go all out to sign Darvish, Arrieta, Lynn, or Cobb as Berrios is the only sure thing in the rotation (minus Santana. Outside of Berrios we don’t have any quality starters in our rotation now. Gibson and Mejia might not even end with the Twins this year, especially if they are bad. Slegers and Felix Jorge are nothing more than “organizational” arms, good for depth but not in any long term plans in the rotation, Gonsalves and Romero have work to do in AAA before they can even be called up and Zach Littell is more likely a September call up type of pitcher. Chris Tillman and Jamie Garcia probably won’t even last through May and to sign them alone is a clear sign the Twins aren’t committed to improving and going for a World Series. Even with Santana we need that “pitcher” to shore up our pitching staff, we can do fine if our 4 and 5 starters aren’t great so long as we are solid with our 1-3 starters.

[Platoon]

poop. can I type poop? 

 

Kyle Gibson is now their 2nd most reliable SP.....

You can type poop. But you cannot use the words Gibson and "reliable SP" in the same sentence. Where's a mod when you need one?

[Blackjack]

 

It said in the tweet that it started last season and gave it an injection.

So why not have surgery in October or November instead of waiting until two weeks before spring training??!!!!@#$$%$%@@!

[nicksaviking]

 

So why not have surgery in October or November instead of waiting until two weeks before spring training??!!!!@#$$%$%@@!

 

Because it's his hand not yours and surgery sucks. If he wanted to wait and hope it fixed itself, he's got that right.

[jimmer]

He is going to get paid no matter what.

[Tomj14]

 

This could turn out to be a hidden blessing in a sense.

Exactly we are now almost guaranteed to use an option on Gonzo, Romero and another one Jorge and Slegers.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It may not be the worst thing in the world but if you're going to use a sixth pitcher, it'd be nice if it happened in May or June after you got a better look at Gonsalves and Romero, giving you the possibility of going with a legitimate upside guy from the minors.

Yup. Our SP prospects (aside from Slegers) have virtually zero AAA experience, Trevor May hasn't started a game in over 2 years, and Phil Hughes hasn't been above replacement for 2 years either. And Hughes was already in our top 5 at the MLB.com depth chart, before Ervin's surgery news broke!

[redstorm]

 

Exactly we are now almost guaranteed to use an option on Gonzo, Romero and another one Jorge and Slegers.

 

Not necessarily, the combination of the timing of this injury and the slow-moving free agency class says that there are still a decent amount of starting pitching options available. If this had been a mid-season injury you'd be absolutely right, but I'm hoping the Twins can turn this into a reason to finally be more aggressive with the free agent starters out there. I'd still be okay with giving one of the younger in-house guys a shot, but more as a supplement to a higher-end free agent...I'm still holding out hope they sign Darvish

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This could turn out to be a hidden blessing in a sense. Santana is 35 with a lot of innings logged on his arm. He was wearing down by his playoff start last year IMO. Getting an extra two months off from competitive pitching to start the season could well pay dividends down the line. And now the Twins won't have to worry about the possibility of him throwing 200 mediocre innings and triggering his option.

How did extra rest work for Ervin in 2015? What about 2016, when his 3 best months were July, September, and August? (For that matter, his worst months in 2017 were June and July.) It seems logical that players would tire as the season wore on, but sometimes I think trying to tie that to results is a fool's errand. These guys are pretty much selected from the population based on their ability to compete at the highest level over an extended time period -- given that, it's very difficult to distinguish between fatigue and normal statistical variation.

 

And in modern MLB, it's very unlikely that a pitcher could throw 200 IP, coming off back-to-back 4 WAR seasons, and not be worth $13 mil the following year ($14 mil option minus $1 mil buyout).

[Tomj14]

 

Not necessarily, the combination of the timing of this injury and the slow-moving free agency class says that there are still a decent amount of starting pitching options available. If this had been a mid-season injury you'd be absolutely right, but I'm hoping the Twins can turn this into a reason to finally be more aggressive with the free agent starters out there. I'd still be okay with giving one of the younger in-house guys a shot, but more as a supplement to a higher-end free agent...I'm still holding out hope they sign Darvish

I was trying to say that would happen if we didn't sign a FA.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

But, yeah. The rotation is pretty unsightly right now with Gibson and Mejia lined up as the 2 and 3. I guess Hughes is penciled in? We'll see who they add. Gotta think they'll pull the trigger on someone before camp starts but who knows.

This I agree with.  There's no way they can roll out Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, Hughes, and Slegers to start the season, is there?

 

I don't even think we can plan to skip the 5th spot (not that teams do that very much anymore).  After the opening series, we play 9 consecutive days, then we have the trip to Puerto Rico, then we play 19 consecutive days into May.

[Vanimal46]

Good luck to Erv in his recovery. I don't know what else the Twins need to hear to sign Darvish, Cobb, Lynn, or Garcia.

 

Starting Gonsalves, Jorge, Slegers, or Romero in the rotation from day 1 sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. Especially if they're serious about making the playoffs in 2018.

[D. Hocking]

They actually did better than expected in 2015 when Santana had his steroid time-out and that was a longer absence.   Hopefully that will be the case this time, or at least hold their own until he gets back.   At least there will no not be the controversy whether he or Darvish is the opening day pitcher.

[Doctor Wu]

 

It becomes an opportunity for Slegers or Gonsalves or someone else to show us something and they will need those chances.  

 

This is GOOD NEWS!!! See the bright side... C'mon everybody...   

Hey, I like the optimism! But yeah, this DOES open the door for another pitcher or two to grab a starter role, it only temporarily. I only hope someone seizes the opportunity and impresses us! Erv who?

[ashbury]

Exactly we are now almost guaranteed to use an option on Gonzo, Romero and another one Jorge and Slegers.

This is a nitpick, I know, but it's kind of the opposite. An option is exercised when you send someone already on the 40-man roster down to the minors. If anything, it slightly raises the chance of one of the young guys not getting sent down to start the season, and maybe they never get sent down and then no option gets exercised.

 

Here endeth the nitpick.

[Tomj14]

 

This is a nitpick, I know, but it's kind of the opposite. An option is exercised when you send someone already on the 40-man roster down to the minors. If anything, it slightly raises the chance of one of the young guys not getting sent down to start the season, and maybe they never get sent down and then no option gets exercised.

Here endeth the nitpick.

Thanks, I guess I misunderstood what "option" meant. So you are saying if Jorge spends all year in the minors that will be his 2nd option?

Ok, I change my mind run all of those pitchers on the 40 man roster up and down all year to figure out what we have.

(Thank you for correcting me on this)

[Taildragger8791]

 

Because it's his hand not yours and surgery sucks. If he wanted to wait and hope it fixed itself, he's got that right.

 

Surgery is also part of the deal when you're an athlete and are expected to manage your health to be available to perform. This isn't TJ or a shoulder/knee rebuild. It's a relatively minor procedure plus some cleanup due to wear & tear, something a lot of athletes have to do at the end of a season. If they knew there was a possibility of this happening then it would have been negligent not to have the finger tested and fixed a month or two ago.

 

This article has a decent explanation of the procedure:

https://zonecoverage.com/2018/twins/seehafer-explaining-ervin-santanas-mcp-release-procedure/

[Puckett34]

The timing sucks, but surgery is always and should always be a last resort.  If it is indeed a case of he was feeling increased discomfort in the finger as he ramped up his bullpen sessions leading up to spring training.  Not much you can do there.   At least he should only miss the first 4-6 weeks of the seasons.  How many starts is that?  5-7 I think.

 

Does increase the need to get at least one of the top 4 SP free agents and maybe a second from a lower tier as well.

[ashbury]

Thanks, I guess I misunderstood what "option" meant. So you are saying if Jorge spends all year in the minors that will be his 2nd option?

Close. If you send a guy down, and he stays for more than a certain total number (20?) of days, then the option is exercised. An option, once exercised, covers the entire season; you can bring him up and down, subject to certain other rules. A player has 3 options for his career, and once they have been consumed then the waiver process must be used in order to send him down, which means some other team could grab him if they have room on their own 40-man. Options aren't needed in the years before a prospect is added to the 40-man roster, although if you hang onto the guy long enough without adding him to the 40-man then you can lose him in other ways (Rule 5 draft, minor league free agency, maybe something else I'm forgetting). Finally, just to close the loop somewhat, a player can't be in the majors (25-man roster) unless on the 40-man, so the decision to bring up a prospect has long-term ramifications for him and tactical implications for the team's roster management.

 

There are exceptions galore, even to this somewhat complicated overview. The Wikipedia page seems to have a pretty good explanation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_transactions#Options

 

And, as was previously pointed out to me, anyone who wants to read such governing rules, unfiltered by well-meaning people, can find them oficially at https://registration.mlbpa.org/pdf/MajorLeagueRules.pdf .

It's interesting to note that this is at the Players Association website - it's part of the collective bargaining agreement.

[Twins33]

Surgery is also part of the deal when you're an athlete and are expected to manage your health to be available to perform. This isn't TJ or a shoulder/knee rebuild. It's a relatively minor procedure plus some cleanup due to wear & tear, something a lot of athletes have to do at the end of a season. If they knew there was a possibility of this happening then it would have been negligent not to have the finger tested and fixed a month or two ago.

 

This article has a decent explanation of the procedure:

https://zonecoverage.com/2018/twins/seehafer-explaining-ervin-santanas-mcp-release-procedure/

They found nothing significantly wrong when they did the end of year physical and gave him a shot. Now, I think we're all frustrated that these surgeries always end up happening at a big delay, but surgery is always considered the last resort. Surgery is serious, even routine ones.

 

According to Levine (1500 Espn interview) he didn't start hurting again until he started throwing sliders in bullpen sessions. So it's not really hard to see why it took this long. It's unfortunate that it happened but they aren't ever going to recommend surgery as the first resort unless there are zero other options.

[yarnivek1972]

They found nothing significantly wrong when they did the end of year physical and gave him a shot. Now, I think we're all frustrated that these surgeries always end up happening at a big delay, but surgery is always considered the last resort. Surgery is serious, even routine ones.

 

According to Levine (1500 Espn interview) he didn't start hurting again until he started throwing sliders in bullpen sessions. So it's not really hard to see why it took this long. It's unfortunate that it happened but they aren't ever going to recommend surgery as the first resort unless there are zero other options.

Which leads back to the question, why wasn't his progress checked earlier during the offseason? Seems to me it should have been and it doesn't sound like it was.

[Mike Sixel]

I always stand with the human being that doesn't want surgery. Always.

[Twins33]

Which leads back to the question, why wasn't his progress checked earlier during the offseason? Seems to me it should have been and it doesn't sound like it was.

My guess is they thought it would heal. I've never heard of a player starting to throw sliders in December. They may start playing catch at that point but not throwing sliders. And maybe they did not know sliders were the indicator at the time.

 

If he plays catch, reports nothing because there is no pain...then they assume time or the shot healed it. That's not their fault or Santana's for not throwing sliders months prior to the usual time of doing that, unless they knew all along that sliders were the trigger which I'd have a hard time believing right now.

[ashbury]

That's not their fault or Santana's for not throwing sliders months prior to the usual time of doing that, unless they knew all along that sliders were the trigger which I'd have a hard time believing right now.

Not to mention, Santana was aware of the multi-million dollar implications of his IP vesting clause. The simplest explanation, that he went with informed medical opinion to try rest and treatment first, seems the best.

[jud6312]

http://cdn3-www.musicfeeds.com.au/assets/uploads/garbage-man.gif

 

"Get Chris Tillman's agents on the phone ASAP." - Falvine

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Which leads back to the question, why wasn't his progress checked earlier during the offseason? Seems to me it should have been and it doesn't sound like it was.

Probably because he's 35 years old and isn't going to throw sliders in November or December.

 

Nor should he.