Article: Report: Darvish Decision Expected This Week, Twins In Consideration

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I understand what you are saying. As a self employed person I have a lot of uncertainty, but at the level of these contracts if have is base and half is incentive - I think they can survive.

my brother in law does well for himself, I do too. It’s not about survival. It’s about comfort.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I would prefer to see how a pitchers K rate varies from inning to inning.  Does it go up when the sluggers like Sano flail away.  Is it really high in 1 or 2 innings which would make the pitcher more of a candidate for relief appearances.  Does it go away in the fifth and sixth?

That's why sample size matters.  Over the course of 150 to 200 innings, any starting pitcher is likely to have such aberrations (facing more strikeout prone batters and the like) mitigated by the long season and facing a variety of batters in a variety of situations.    For instance, if a guy has a really high k/9 rate, but only has 130 innings and 30 games started, that tells you that the pitcher is wearing himself out getting those Ks and you'll need a very good bullpen to bridge the gap to the end of the game.   But if you have high k/9 rate and a 180 innings, there's not much concern about the K-rate being misleading.

Edited January 27, 2018 by PseudoSABR

[jorgenswest]

A quick aside...

 

K% has been shown to be a better indicator than K/9. Last year Santana and Nolasco had identical K/9. Santana K% 19.3 to Nolasco’s 18.2. That difference matters in performance.

[Don Walcott]

 

A quick aside...

K% has been shown to be a better indicator than K/9. Last year Santana and Nolasco had identical K/9. Santana K% 19.3 to Nolasco’s 18.2. That difference matters in performance.

By K/9, Archer was better than Kershaw.  By K% Kershaw was better.  That's because Kershaw doesn't allow as many walks and hits.  Archer had more Ks per out recorded, and Kershaw had more Ks per batter faced.  I'd rather know % of Ks per batter faced.

[Otto von Ballpark]

A quick aside...

 

K% has been shown to be a better indicator than K/9. Last year Santana and Nolasco had identical K/9. Santana K% 19.3 to Nolasco’s 18.2. That difference matters in performance.

True, but for the purposes of comparing Darvish to these pitchers, K/9 is a decent approximation, and it is more readily available.

[Mr. Brooks]

I understand what you are saying. As a self employed person I have a lot of uncertainty, but at the level of these contracts if have is base and half is incentive - I think they can survive.

But why would a player agree to that, when he knows he can just accept a guaranteed contract from a different team?

That's the reason you don't, and never will see those types of contract become widespread. Any team making an offer like that knows they have no chance, because another team will just guarantee the same contract.

[USAFChief]

But why would a player agree to that, when he knows he can just accept a guaranteed contract from a different team?

That's the reason you don't, and never will see those types of contract become widespread. Any team making an offer like that knows they have no chance, because another team will just guarantee the same contract.

Performance incentives are not allowable under the CBA. Playing time incentives are ok, but not performance incentives.

[Blake]

 

Performance incentives are not allowable under the CBA. Playing time incentives are ok, but not performance incentives.

Interesting. I wonder what the rational is behind that particular rule?

[Twodogs]

I would prefer to see how a pitchers K rate varies from inning to inning. Does it go up when the sluggers like Sano flail away. Is it really high in 1 or 2 innings which would make the pitcher more of a candidate for relief appearances. Does it go away in the fifth and sixth?

Well I mean is this really news?

 

I don't want this taken in a bad way or anything. But I'm pretty sure Nolan Ryan's K rate went up when Dave Kingman was hitting and most likely went down when Rod Carew was up. So I would tend to believe that K's go down against good contact hitters and up against home run mashers. I'd bet money that every pitcher in MLB shows that trend??

 

I would also venture to say that strike out pitchers don't normally turn into contact pitchers later in ball games. Just from what I have seen over the years is that often times the reverse is true. Many of the better strike out pitchers tend to give up a few hits early on and less later on when they are going good. Seems like their secondary stuff sets up better later in games after they have established a good fastball.

[mikelink45]

 

But why would a player agree to that, when he knows he can just accept a guaranteed contract from a different team?
That's the reason you don't, and never will see those types of contract become widespread. Any team making an offer like that knows they have no chance, because another team will just guarantee the same contract.

At some point the teams with the big dollars run out.  The Yankees and Dodgers and Cubs cannot sign everyone.  You can see that this year.  But every year the other teams talk themselves into spending too much because, if I don't someone else will.

[mikelink45]

 

Well I mean is this really news?

I don't want this taken in a bad way or anything. But I'm pretty sure Nolan Ryan's K rate went up when Dave Kingman was hitting and most likely went down when Rod Carew was up. So I would tend to believe that K's go down against good contact hitters and up against home run mashers. I'd bet money that every pitcher in MLB shows that trend??

I would also venture to say that strike out pitchers don't normally turn into contact pitchers later in ball games. Just from what I have seen over the years is that often times the reverse is true. Many of the better strike out pitchers tend to give up a few hits early on and less later on when they are going good. Seems like their secondary stuff sets up better later in games after they have established a good fastball.

I am really more interested in innings pitched.  The pitcher who gets outs for the most innings saves the rest of the team and it usually means that they are being effective. 

[tvagle]

I hate to be non-analytical in this day and age but all the discussion on K%, swgmis%, K-9 (underated movie in the early career of Tom Hanks...oh wait that was Turner and Hooch) fWAR, bWar, Spin Rate are fantastic in OOTP, Strat-o-Matic, The Show...it comes down to this

 

Teams must look at where they have a need, who's available to fit that need, what other teams will try to acquire their target and ultimately how much they can afford to pay for that guy

 

It would be awesome if every year the youngest stathead leaders were available and everyone could pick and choose...not the case. Darvish by most accounts is the top starting pitcher available. Sure he has issues but he's the top guy in the top need position of our lovable local nine this off season. Find out his price and pay it if it fits long term. I certainly hope the ability to win now is a stronger catalyst than how bad the contract MIGHT be 5 years from now. If another team thinks he's more valuable than your offer, so be it, match them or move on.

 

Is Darvish a better option than Gibson, Mejia, pick your 5th guy this year? Next year?? The year after??? If you think so you pay the going rate...if you don't then look at other options

 

It seems a bit perplexing to me that some consider signing Darvish will be bad for the future...but trading away multiple future assets for a starter doesn't have the same future consequences??

 

To me mortgaging the future in player assets just doesn't outweigh a possible overpay for atop of the rotation starter, an area that the Twins have been lacking since the days of Matthew LeCroy...oh and Johan!

[amjgt]

T-minus 2 hours!!!!

 

Are we all staying up until midnight?

[Squirrel]

T-minus 2 hours!!!!

Are we all staying up until midnight?

Until what? The end of the week isn’t until midnight tomorrow.

[tvagle]

 

T-minus 2 hours!!!!

Are we all staying up until midnight?

Until what? The end of the week isn’t until midnight tomorrow.

 

I was gonna reply to this but I'm not even sure where to begin

[Squirrel]

I was gonna reply to this but I'm not even sure where to begin

Where I work our service weeks are Monday - Sunday. So I go with that. Also, there’s this:

‘On the seventh day God had finished his work of creation, so he rested from all his work.’ Everyone knows the 7th day, the day of rest, is Sunday, ergo the end of the week.

[amjgt]

I’m a calendar man

[USAFChief]

‘On the seventh day God had finished his work of creation, so he rested from all his work.’ Everyone knows the 7th day, the day of rest, is Sunday, ergo the end of the week.

Sandy Koufax disagrees.

[Twodogs]

 

I am really more interested in innings pitched.  The pitcher who gets outs for the most innings saves the rest of the team and it usually means that they are being effective. 

So more like innings per start, to go that extra quality inning to limit how much bull pen usage they have to rely on??  Regardless, I think the Twins will be a whole lot better with Darvish on the mound.  They will be better with Lynn or Cobb, but they might not have that guy who can match up with the likes of Sale and other teams big dogs, etc.....  With a healthy Darvish they would have that.

 

 

Kinda like a Jack Morris of 1991 and a Frank Viola of 1987

Edited January 28, 2018 by Twodogs

[Danchat]

The Twins aren’t thought to be willing to go beyond five years for Yu Darvish, and “Alex Cobb is believed to be their fallback choice for the rotation” if Darvish passes.  The Rangers similarly have interest in Darvish and Cobb if their prices fall, though it sounds like Texas is hoping for only a major bargain signing.  As one source tells Heyman, “the Rangers are lowballing even the lowballers” in contract offers.

 

Source

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Where I work our service weeks are Monday - Sunday. So I go with that. Also, there’s this:

‘On the seventh day God had finished his work of creation, so he rested from all his work.’ Everyone knows the 7th day, the day of rest, is Sunday, ergo the end of the week.

7th Day Adventists worship on Saturday... just saying

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seventh-day_Adventist_Church

[h2oface]

Is it still "this week'?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Is it still "this week'?

depends on when you started counting. 7 days from Jan 24 is Jan 31. Last I checked it was Jan 28

[h2oface]

 

depends on when you started counting. 7 days from Jan 24 is Jan 31. Last I checked it was Jan 28

 

Well, on the calendar, ever since Pope Gregory XIII, who introduced the Gregorian calendar to replace the inaccuracies of the then used Julian calendar in October 1582, Sunday is the start of a new week (even though it is widely considered the last day of the weekend). I guess one can consider the fiscal week instead, but that is a bit obtuse for this instance, in my mind. I guess I will give compromise and give it 'til midnight.......

Edited January 29, 2018 by h2oface

[snepp]

 

Well, on the calendar, ever since Pope Gregory XIII, who introduced the Gregorian calendar to replace the inaccuracies of the then used Julian calendar in October 1582, Sunday is the start of a new week (even though it is widely considered the last day of the weekend). I guess one can consider the fiscal week instead, but that is a bit obtuse for this instance, in my mind. I guess I will give compromise and give it 'til midnight.......

 

With Sunday typically being my only day off, it's definitely the 'end' of my week. At least then I have something to look forward to.

 

Except for this week, as I currently type this from the shop office, which just muddles everything. Next/this week will be a confusing mess.

[ashbury]

Or, perhaps, we just accept that the report was mistaken, and move on.

[Squirrel]

Or, perhaps, we just accept that the report was mistaken, and move on.

Rumors, damn rumors.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Well, on the calendar, ever since Pope Gregory XIII, who introduced the Gregorian calendar to replace the inaccuracies of the then used Julian calendar in October 1582, Sunday is the start of a new week (even though it is widely considered the last day of the weekend). I guess one can consider the fiscal week instead, but that is a bit obtuse for this instance, in my mind. I guess I will give compromise and give it 'til midnight.......

We need to return to the Nyköping staff. If it was good enough for 13th century Swedes, it’s good enough for me.

[Pitz]

Or, perhaps, we just accept that the report was mistaken, and move on.

Move on to what? This is what the cold stove has brought us to.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

No one is better and that is the problem.  I want better options.  Sometimes the second or third option is the right one.  If we get him I will be fine - why not.  But would I sign him - no.  Do I believe in him - No.  I do not think he will be better than Santana was this year.  I truly believe that the Astros did more than steal his signs.  The really good pitchers who demand the kind of contract that he wants can say here is my - fastball, curve, etc - try and hit it.  Darvish cannot.  If I am wrong and the Twins get him I will be happy, but this just feels really wrong.  The only thing worse for me would be to sign Arrieta who is on a quick down hill slide.  

You've built some really strange narratives around Darvish.

 

1. If the Astros (and other good teams) can just hit Darvish at will, why'd Darvish post 12 very good innings against Houston during the regular season and why was he so far above average overall?

 

2. Darvish had the 12th-highest K/9 rate in baseball last season among qualified pitchers (and he played most of the season in the AL). He absolutely has "go ahead, try to hit this" stuff.

 

3. He's not going to be paid like he's the best pitcher in baseball, he's just going to be paid very well and (likely) in line with his talent level. There's no way he gets $200m+ in a Kershaw, Greinke, or Scherzer level of contract.