Article: Part 8: Seth's Updated Top 50 Minnesota Twins Prospects (1-5)

[Seth Stohs]

 

Seth didn't mention anything about Romero's injury. From Sickels's writeup on Romero:

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/10/24/16537288/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2018

"Age 22; solid season in Double-A with 3.53 ERA, 120/45 K/BB in 125 innings, a mere four homers allowed; campaign ended on a down note with poor pitching in August (8.38 ERA) punctuated by a trip to the disabled list with a shoulder impingement; status unclear at the moment; when healthy combination of plus stuff and command could make him number three starter or impressive power reliever. ETA 2018 if healthy"

 

Romero's peripherals also point toward injury instead of tiring at the end of the season. He didn't strike out less that 22% of the batters he faced in any game for 2 straight months (averaging 28% overall), and then went 14%, 0%, two week break, 8%, 12%, shutdown for the year.

 

Does anyone have an update on his health?

 

He was on an innings limit plan. He had been limited to five innings per start for a month or six weeks before he was shut down. He was shut down when he had kind of a dead arm. It's something where if it had happened in the middle of the season, he'd skip a start and be back out there. Since it was only one more start, and he was so close to a limit, they just shut him down. 

[markos]

 

He was on an innings limit plan. He had been limited to five innings per start for a month or six weeks before he was shut down. He was shut down when he had kind of a dead arm. It's something where if it had happened in the middle of the season, he'd skip a start and be back out there. Since it was only one more start, and he was so close to a limit, they just shut him down. 

So you are saying that Sickels just made up all the stuff about the disabled list and shoulder impingement? Romero did skip a start in early-August. Was that for the same dead-arm issue?

 

I don't mean to be snarky here. I trust Sickels a lot - he seems to be a straight-shooter when it comes to his analysis, and he draws from a lot of sources inside the industry. His analysis of Romero heavily focused on the injury issue. Seth and Steve both said it was actually a big nothing-burger. I'm just trying to reconcile this discrepancy.

[Seth Stohs]

 

So you are saying that Sickels just made up all the stuff about the disabled list and shoulder impingement? Romero did skip a start in early-August. Was that for the same dead-arm issue?

 

I don't mean to be snarky here. I trust Sickels a lot - he seems to be a straight-shooter when it comes to his analysis, and he draws from a lot of sources inside the industry. His analysis of Romero heavily focused on the injury issue. Seth and Steve both said it was actually a big nothing-burger. I'm just trying to reconcile this discrepancy.

 

Nope... he went on the Disabled List with what was called a shoulder impingement. 

[Dantes929]

 

It's a small part of your point, but Bellinger was a top 10 prospect in all of baseball going into the 2017 season.

Most of the people talking about adding Bellinger to a Dozier deal were being snarky.

Whoops.  Going by memory and this bad list.   https://www.truebluela.com/2017/4/5/15188146/dodgers-prospects-2017-trade-rankings.

[Steve Lein]

 

It's a small part of your point, but Bellinger was a top 10 prospect in all of baseball going into the 2017 season.

Most of the people talking about adding Bellinger to a Dozier deal were being snarky.

 

Yup, I was saying if you're trading Dozier to the Dodgers and Bellinger was available, he was the guy you wanted, not the pitchers.

 

I am slowly becoming less hopeful when it comes to Gordon.  We still read concerns about his defense, and if he can't play average MLB SS, his bat is not strong enough to play other positions.  He strikes out a lot and doesn't hit with a lot of power.  

 

To my eye, I think he is trade candidate this offseason.

 

If you're afraid of the concerns on defense for Gordon, you're really going to dislike them for Lewis...

[Kelly Vance]

Id like to see Romero and maybe Reed or Burdi, get a shot in the 2018 bullpen. That kind of speed is tailor made for a 7-8-9 reliever

[Taildragger8791]

 

Yup, I was saying if you're trading Dozier to the Dodgers and Bellinger was available, he was the guy you wanted, not the pitchers.

 

 

If you're afraid of the concerns on defense for Gordon, you're really going to dislike them for Lewis...

 

Lewis is 4 years younger, is more athletic, and didn't play SS until he was a senior in high school, so we don't know whether he can grow into the position or not. All we know is he hasn't played himself out of the hole yet. He also has the potential to fall back to another position and still be viable offensively & defensively, so SS isn't make or break for his value. Gordon's question marks are more concerning as a 22-year old that played the position his whole life, especially when his value drops off considerably at any other position.

[bobs]

  With all due respect to everything Terry Ryan did for the organization, anyone else have more confidence in Falvine to draft better and develop better than the previous regime?

[bobs]

 

Yup, I was saying if you're trading Dozier to the Dodgers and Bellinger was available, he was the guy you wanted, not the pitchers.

 

 

If you're afraid of the concerns on defense for Gordon, you're really going to dislike them for Lewis...

Possible move to the OF was mentioned as a possibility when Lewis was drafted I believe?

[bobs]

 

Id like to see Romero and maybe Reed or Burdi, get a shot in the 2018 bullpen. That kind of speed is tailor made for a 7-8-9 reliever

Or all 3?!

[bobs]

 

I've been thinking a lot about whether they should leave a rotation spot open for one of these guys too, but it's so tough to know how a guy is going to handle his first taste in the bigs. The advantage of being a non-contender is you can give prospects a test run and if they fail it doesn't matter (like Berrios in 2016).

 

I'm excited to hear the front office talk about trying to catch Cleveland, don't get me wrong, but it is kind of a bummer that being a contender probably also means it's probably going to be more difficult for these young guys to break in.

Doesn't seem like an MLB team ever has to "leave a roster spot open".  Injuries and/or ineffectiveness usually open up a spot...

[Seth Stohs]

 

  With all due respect to everything Terry Ryan did for the organization, anyone else have more confidence in Falvine to draft better and develop better than the previous regime?

 

I think Terry Ryan and those under him did a very good job of drafting and developing hitters... I think that success is clear and there are many examples.

 

I think that their ability to draft and develop starting pitchers has been an issue that's been brought up many, many times... So I am hopeful that the Falvine Era will find more success/luck.

[2wins87]

 

Id like to see Romero and maybe Reed or Burdi, get a shot in the 2018 bullpen. That kind of speed is tailor made for a 7-8-9 reliever

 

Burdi will still be building up strength from his TJ next year, I don't see any real possibility that he'll make the 25 man roster until 2019.

[rdehring]

It isn't realistic to expect any of these young starters to be in the opening day rotation, with the possible exception of Slegers. 

 

Gonsalves will need at least half a year at Rochester.  Ditto for Jorge.  Romero will need much of the year in AAA and then be running out of innings.

 

As for May, it would be a huge surprise if he is ready to pitch on opening day, much less pitch deep into a game.  I look for him to begin his season in XST with a rehab trip sometime in May.  He could be that jolt the team needs in early summer, kind of like getting someone in a trade.

 

that means that the Twins definitely need one good starter.  And a second means there is competition for Mejia, Gibson, Hughes and Slegers for two spots.

 

We all take what you do for granted, Seth.  It is appreciated and a thank you doesn't seem to cut it.  If we can ever connect, lunch will be on me!

[Kelly Vance]

 

Burdi will still be building up strength from his TJ next year, I don't see any real possibility that he'll make the 25 man roster until 2019.

Yeah, ok.  You know I see his speed and just want him to make it. 

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

 

 

Gonsalves will need at least half a year at Rochester.  Ditto for Jorge.Romero will need much of the year in AAA and then be running out of innings.

 

 

When I first read this I read Jorge Romero - he was the Night of the Living Dead guy

[h2oface]

I had no idea G Cinco was so found of himself.

[Thrylos]

 

I think Terry Ryan and those under him did a very good job of drafting and developing hitters... I think that success is clear and there are many examples.

 

Really?

 

Ryan was the GM since 1994.  That's 23 years ago.  And he had plenty of high picks.  How many HOF hitters were drafted under him?  Maybe one, and he will should not make it.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Really?

 

Ryan was the GM since 1994.  That's 23 years ago.  And he had plenty of high picks.  How many HOF hitters were drafted under him?  Maybe one, and he will should not make it.

 

I guess if Hall of Fame is the criteria for quality draft picks... 

[DocBauer]

I am slowly becoming less hopeful when it comes to Gordon.  We still read concerns about his defense, and if he can't play average MLB SS, his bat is not strong enough to play other positions.  He strikes out a lot and doesn't hit with a lot of power.  

 

To my eye, I think he is trade candidate this offseason.

 

You know it's funny/strange how we all interpret things differently. I wasn't crazy about Gordon when drafted because he seemed to grade out 50-60 in all categories and I just didn't see him as being "special" enough to be picked so high. But I've actually become a believer due to his work and preparation, as well as increased numbers, (despite a bit of streakiness here and there).

 

Is he a ML SS? I just don't know, and don't pretend to know. But years of watching baseball, and reading about prospects, and looking back at milb numbers have shown me that very, very few infielders, even top prospects and future all star SS don't have a learning curve, and even a bunch of errors as they learn, grow and develop. Perhaps, ultimately, he becomes a fine 2B with quality, overall numbers. I'm OK with that.

 

I know I'm in the minority, maybe, but I'm actually very OK with Polanco at SS...at least until/If someone unseat him. Really, he was a borderline rookie in 2017, (If you think about real playing time, not set standards), and he played much, much better than I anticipated. He started well and finished well despite a mid season funk with both glove and bat. (And we've already discussed this at length previously). Is he a gold glover? Nope. Did he make mistakes? Yep. But what young SS doesn't? I was actually impressed, overall, and think he will continue to get better.

[DocBauer]

My concern with Romero is that it is not clear he can make it through a full season as a starter anytime soon. If he was wearing down at 110, he could be 3 years away.

 

Still think his likely outcome is a potentially dominant, multi-inning, reliever.

 

And you may be right. And a dominant RP is not a bad thing, certainly.

 

But for those who question, or want to rush him to the majors as a reliever, I'd really suggest caution. His stuff seems to be real. His build seems to suggest power, and a build that can sustain it. After missing a couple full season's, the Twins have been building up his arm and endurance. Personally, while I am eager to see him take the next step, I have no problem letting him take most of 2018 to continue to learn to pitch, refine his stuff, build up endurance, and maybe make a late season appearance with an eye towards 2019. I just don't think you mess with an arm with his potential as a starter.

[markos]

 

Nope... he went on the Disabled List with what was called a shoulder impingement. 

Thanks for the followup.

[Steve Lein]

 

Lewis is 4 years younger, is more athletic, and didn't play SS until he was a senior in high school, so we don't know whether he can grow into the position or not. All we know is he hasn't played himself out of the hole yet. He also has the potential to fall back to another position and still be viable offensively & defensively, so SS isn't make or break for his value. Gordon's question marks are more concerning as a 22-year old that played the position his whole life, especially when his value drops off considerably at any other position.

 

Yup, I get all that. He's likely still my #1 prospect because of all that, but it's going to take a lot of stuff I haven't heard about him at SS to make me believe he'll ever play there. I especially don't like hearing that he uses a "crow-hop" to make throws there, as an example (though I'm sure that will get taught out of him).

 

Gordon, at a minimum, will be as good as Polanco defensively at SS. I think he will be better. I also think he's going to be a .300 hitter in the majors.  If he moves to 2B, I don't think his value goes down much. I think he's got a good middle-infielder profile with his bat.

[Pinetar]

Some years ago, when I was teaching and coaching at a prep school in Western PA,  I would take some of my ballplayers to a baseball training facility a couple of times a month during the off-season.  More often than not, when we got there we would see this little kid seated at a small desk doing his school work.  I don't recall what he said his name was, but he said that he was being home-schooled and that his father owned the place.  Little did I know at the time that he would turn out to be the Twin's number one choice in the 2016 draft.......

[ashbury]

Some years ago, when I was teaching and coaching at a prep school in Western PA,  I would take some of my ballplayers to a baseball training facility a couple of times a month during the off-season.  More often than not, when we got there we would see this little kid seated at a small desk doing his school work.  I don't recall what he said his name was, but he said that he was being home-schooled and that his father owned the place.  Little did I know at the time that he would turn out to be the Twin's number one choice in the 2016 draft.......

I see that this is your first post. Welcome!

[IndianaTwin]

And you may be right. And a dominant RP is not a bad thing, certainly.

 

But for those who question, or want to rush him to the majors as a reliever, I'd really suggest caution. His stuff seems to be real. His build seems to suggest power, and a build that can sustain it. After missing a couple full season's, the Twins have been building up his arm and endurance. Personally, while I am eager to see him take the next step, I have no problem letting him take most of 2018 to continue to learn to pitch, refine his stuff, build up endurance, and maybe make a late season appearance with an eye towards 2019. I just don't think you mess with an arm with his potential as a starter.

To me, this sounds like a good time to follow what I think of as the Cardinals approach. Others do it too, but they seem to do it really well. What’s Romero’s innings limit in 2018? Perhaps 150? Give him 130 as a starter in Rochester. If he’s doing well, bring him up and use him judiciously in relief for the final 20, with the assumption that he’s still a starter in 2019.

[Thrylos]

 

I guess if Hall of Fame is the criteria for quality draft picks... 

 

For 23 years, sure it can be.  In those 23 years about 50-60 players went to the Hall of Fame.  Zero were drafted by Ryan & Co, where the norm would be 2-3 should have been, if his drafts were "average" and about double that, if they were "good".

 

Just math.

Edited December 2, 2017 by Thrylos

[Mr. Brooks]

For 23 years, sure it can be. In those 23 years about 50-60 players went to the Hall of Fame. Zero were drafted by Ryan & Co, where the norm would be 2-3 should have been, if his drafts were "average" and about double that, if they were "good".

 

Just math.

I'd venture to guess that the vast majority of those 50 to 60 players were drafted by GM's that were out of the game by the time said player was inducted.

 

You draft a guy, 3 or 4 years in the minors, a 15 year career, 5 year waiting period, you're talking 23 years minimum from draft to first ballot.

 

This is a meaningless way to evaluate a GM.

Edited December 2, 2017 by Mr. Brooks

[Thrylos]

 

You draft a guy, 3 or 4 years in the minors, a 15 year career, 5 year waiting period, you're talking 23 years minimum from draft to first ballot.

 

They don't have to be inducted to the Hall of Fame to be included.  For example, it is pretty safe to say that none of Ryan & Co's picks from 1994 to 2011 will make it to the Hall of Fame, with the potential exception of maybe Mauer and that is very unlikely.  For picks drafter from 2012-2016 we will know in 2-3 years or so.

How about rings?  World Series appearances?  Better way to judge a GM and FO? 

Because the result is the same as far as Ryan goes.

Edited December 2, 2017 by Thrylos

[Seth Stohs]

 

For 23 years, sure it can be.  In those 23 years about 50-60 players went to the Hall of Fame.  Zero were drafted by Ryan & Co, where the norm would be 2-3 should have been, if his drafts were "average" and about double that, if they were "good".

 

Just math.

 

So... Umm... 

 

In the last ten years, 19 players "went into the Hall of Fame." The latest that a player was drafted who got into the Hall of Fame were Frank Thomas and Jeff Bagwell, who were drafted in 1989... So, of those 23 years, zero of them are Hall of Famers... 

 

Just math... and a 10-minute research session on Baseball-Reference.