Twins Big Splash Optimism

[spinowner]

I actually don't see them making a big splash either signing or trading for a pitcher. Obviously the team needs help but as many have stated so do a lot of other teams and the free agent pool is not particularly large or deep. This doesn't make me optimistic or pessimistic, though. My optimism is regarding the hope that they will loosen the purse strings to lock up some of our young position players. 

[drjim]

Cobb: 6.7% SwStr%, 17.3 K%, 11.3 K-BB%

Lynn: 9.0 SwStr%, 19.7 K%, 9.7 K-BB% (in the NL so several of those against Ps)

 

That's why they should hesitate.

For comparison's purpose:

 

Mejia: 10.5 SwStr%, 19.2 K%, 9.3 K-BB%, and has not yet reached his prime.

I don't necessarily disagree. There are plenty of reasons beyond money to pass on this entire free agent crop.

 

EDIT: But they do need someone, and I'm not sure their prospects are good enough to acquire someone this offseason.

[Riverbrian]

I have heard nothing to give me optimism.

 

However necessity is the mother of invention and I'm optimistic that this necessity is in plain sight. 

 

Who is going to close? Will they hand the ball to Hildenberger, Rogers, Pressly, Busenitz or Duffey after careful consideration of sophomore slumps, injuries and K Rates or will they give Molitor more experienced options to increase his options in case the young guys end up being slightly below par.  

 

How many quality bullpen arms will they need if your starters are consistently going 6 innings tops (and the reason everybody is screaming starter suggests that we won't have a ton of complete games minimizing the bullpen usage) while... while...  the young offense is producing in 2018 and looking for some support synergy on the mound. 

 

I'm simply optimistic because "Necessity is the mother of invention". 

 

 

 

Then again...

 

Desecration is the better part of valor. 

 

I gotta stop reading things. 

[Roaddog]

Who do you envision them trading to get starting pitching?

No idea.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I don't know if the issue is optimism so much as it is that it makes sense for them to do something. They have a young hitting core that is here now and they need pitching. They can trade prospects for it, which isn't the end of the world, but that risks the future. Their other option is to sign someone, and since there is room in the payroll, why not?

[The Wise One]

 

Cobb:  6.7% SwStr%, 17.3 K%, 11.3 K-BB%

Lynn: 9.0 SwStr%, 19.7 K%, 9.7 K-BB% (in the NL so several of those against Ps)

 

That's why they should hesitate.

For comparison's purpose:

 

Mejia: 10.5 SwStr%, 19.2 K%, 9.3 K-BB%, and has not yet reached his prime.

for comparison. 198  vs 98. That would be innings pitched.   3.43 vs 4.50.  That would be ERA as in the actual outcome of a game.  Somehow with the delusion of similar talent being put forth the cold hard reality is that you will pitch longer into games and have less runs scored against you per game  when you are a better pitcher.

[The Wise One]

I have read a quite a bit of stuff but nothing that really ties Falvey, Pohlad, nor Levine to the words " we will be signing top free agent agent pitcher".  Nor have I seen anything that resembles  " We will be signing an almost top tier free agent pitcher", Nor have I heard anything that sounds like a plan. That really doesn't mean much.  I have seen people working their way up a system.  I do not think that neither Falvey nor Levine came here to collect a better paycheck ,  surf the net, read a few hundred blogs, and see how long they lead the high life before getting fired. Too many people have not had their contracts renewed for anyone to think that the status of the team will remain quo

[Platoon]

He asked a question, I answered. I don't care if there is 'evidence' or not. I'm choosing to hope good things come. I don't think it's any worse an answer than 'because they never have.'

You definitely are in the "Charley Brown" camp. In past years I would consider that an unrealistic position. But there is a new sheriff(s) in town, and hopefully they will at the least spend more, and spend more wisely, than the previous sheriff. I know the mayor is the same, so I do not expect Yu Darvish or his ilk to be wearing one of those hideous red jerseys next year, but hopefully we will be able to acquire a solid 2-3, and give some of the better talent in the minors a decent shot. Nothing Falvine did last year regarding pitching affected the Twins final landing spot. In one mid season you could not acquire, within reason, enough pitching to change the teams playoff position, nor to beat the Yankees on that day. To me the jury is still out, and will be for longer than many would like to consider. I may not be a Charley Brown optimist, but since Lucy is no longer holding the football, I will take one more run at it!

[mikelink45]

No.  What I see is from fans who want to be front office and wish they could motivate those in charge.  At this point the FO is still a mystery.  What I have seen and understand so far is: 

1. They felt a catcher with framing skills would help the pitching staff and signed Castro and Giminez.  Not a big splash, just filling a need.
2. They thought the Bullpen needed some veteran help so they got Belisle, Breslow and nothing here was a splash or showed a propensity for big spending or glamour.
3. They wanted to test a lot of pitchers to see if there was a hidden gem - there wasn't names like Tepesch, Wilks...will be trivia answers in the future.
4. They observed the coaches, immediately changed the batting coaches which seems to have really helped and took longer than I expected to change pitching coaches.
5. Now they want to put their team together of management and coaching from minors to majors and to dump some of the old "Twins" way.

So really nothing here that indicated spending and chasing a dream.  It seems methodical and we are still watching the movements and the indicators to see what is next.   I believe Cleveland locked up its young players before taking the next steps and I expect that to be the first agenda item, but still not sure.

 

 

 

[Guest]

I hope they do NOT sign an expensive starter this off-season. In 2018, Cleveland is likely to again win the division and the Twins are likely again to be playing for the wild card. Adding Darvish, Arrieta, Lynn or Cobb would not be likely to change that. An expensive starter in 2018 would, however, add risk of having dead money in 2019 and later years, when their chances of beating Cleveland are better and when spending money would have a chance of improving outcomes.

 

I hope they DO spend money on relievers this winter. It is likely that the Twins will have some interesting rookie starters in 2018 and having a deep and good bullpen would ease the stress and help cover up mistakes.

 

If the team looks good at the trade deadline, I hope the Twins do look at adding a good starter at that time. You would hope that pitcher has a good health history.

[Shaitan]

It could go either way, but let's keep in mind that they may have tried signing FAs in the past, but they didn't want to sign with a team that had just lost 100 games.

 

 

[John Bonnes]

Pretty good discussion. Thank you for all helping me. It appears the answer is:

 

No, there have been no comments about being aggressive on the free agent market or increasing payroll. We're optimistic because it seems like it would make sense to sign a big free agent staring pitcher because 

 

1) the Twins could really use one for 2018

2) we're at the beginning of a competitive window.

 

Plus, we're hopeful that this front office will be different than the last one, or that ownership's budget philosophy will be different with new management. 

 

My personal prediction is that they won't get anyone better than Alex Cobb (the 5th best starter in this market) and I'd probably put the over/under even less than that. Instead, I kinda expect a couple of much lower level guys they sign as lottery tickets to see if any of them hit. 

 

We'll see, I guess. 

[yarnivek1972]

I’ve mentioned this before, but it is worth repeating. I don’t think it is likely that the Twins would have been able to lure Falvey away from a championship level organization without some kind of assurance of financial commitment from ownership. What exactly that means, I suppose only Falvey and Pohlad know. But my guess is a commitment to be around 15th in the league in payroll.

[drjim]

I’ve mentioned this before, but it is worth repeating. I don’t think it is likely that the Twins would have been able to lure Falvey away from a championship level organization without some kind of assurance of financial commitment from ownership. What exactly that means, I suppose only Falvey and Pohlad know. But my guess is a commitment to be around 15th in the league in payroll.

Probably not Levine either. Wasn't his quote something similar to them knowing they won't be a top 10 payroll. That still leaves a lot of wiggle room!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-twins-could-target-top-tier-free-agent-starters/

 

Heyman doesn’t provide direct quotes, but seems pretty convincing/convinced himself

[twinssporto]

This is a great thread!  Thanks for starting it John...

 

The Twins WILL do something with a splash this year.  Personally I hope its a little bit of both: starting pitching and bullpen help.  

 

You will see some larger dollars spent along with a few interesting trades with our minor leaguers.  The core is in place but there seems to be a "timing lag" in talent coming up from the pitching side.  Something will be done. A few key additions and this team could really roll...I don't have any proof to back this up about trades or big spending but I've followed this team for 35 years.  I feel it in my bones.

[Monkeypaws]

I doubt they will outspend other teams for the likes of Lynn and Cobb, tho anything is possible.

 

I do expects some reclamation projects, and I am fine with that.

 

I think our new front office is crafty, and will continue to believe so until proven otherwise.

[Roaddog]

I'm hoping a good starter( Cobb or Lynn) and another pen arm or two.

[jorgenswest]

Lynn and Cobb do not belong in the same conversation as Darvish.

 

They would be big splash in Minnesota but so was Ricky Nolasco. These two are much more similar to Nolasco than Darvish.

[nicksaviking]

Lynn and Cobb do not belong in the same conversation as Darvish.

They would be big splash in Minnesota but so was Ricky Nolasco. These two are much more similar to Nolasco than Darvish.

The money would be more due to inflation, but I agree, Lynn and Cobb seem to fall more into the Nolasco/Santana tier of free agency.

 

Aim higher; make a trade if necessary.

[drjim]

I suppose I am less optimistic they'll get one of the top two pitchers (partly because I think it is a bad resource allocation) or consummate a virtually impossible trade.

[PDX Twin]

If they don't spend on pitching this year, I'm going to assume it's because they are saving up for Kershaw next year! 

[mazeville]

1. There's a different front office. 

 

2. The Twins have money coming off the books and when they last fielded a team they thought was going to be competitive, in 2010, the payroll was $120 million, 9th in the league. They could sign two pretty good free agents to get up to that level.

 

3. Last year, when this front office identified Jason Castro as the target, they got him early and for a pretty rich, $24.5 million, deal for someone who bats 8th or 9th most days.

 

4. Contrary to popular belief, the ownership will OK spending when need be. When the Twins decided they needed pitching, they signed Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco. It's such a silly misnomer that the Twins won't spend. They've been losing 90-plus games annually for years. I'd have spent even less if I were running the team.

 

5. The Twins went to the Wild Card game last year. There's reason to believe they could take a step forward next year with a couple of moves. 

 

6. There are national reports that the Twins might target top starters.

 

7. Fans are always optimistic. What's the point if you can't be optimistic every offseason? 

 

Here's my question: Why NOT be optimistic?

[darin617]

Lance Lynn & Alex Cobb are basically #4 starters on a good team. So I would not waste money on either who will get overpaid this winter.

 

As for the bullpen I would love some nice solid veteran arms that can throw hard. Perfect example would be Brandon Morrow. But, I would not want to sign the relief pitcher that had an amazing 2017 season. You will be overpaying big time. The Twins have to do their homework and sift through the free agents and find their targets.

[Rhino and Compass]

I think MLBTR did a good job covering the reasons why you could, theoretically, be optimistic about the Twins being aggressive in the offseason, though admittedly, they are circumstantial. Namely, the Twins have payroll room moving forward, are at the onset of that competetive window, and perhaps of more significant importance, with next year's huge class of free agents, many of the larger markets may be circling the wagons to make bids for bigger names next off season.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/twins-brewers-enter-offseason-in-position-to-spend.html

 

I think the most important thing for me is that this isn't the same group running things as it was in the past. There isn't the same conservative mentality, and the connection to the players in the system isn't as tight as it was previously. While my brain says that they should and will make some big moves, be they via free agency or trade, my heart says that they might re-sign Kintzler and then check out for the rest of the winter. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

4. Contrary to popular belief, the ownership will OK spending when need be. When the Twins decided they needed pitching, they signed Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco. It's such a silly misnomer that the Twins won't spend. They've been losing 90-plus games annually for years. I'd have spent even less if I were running the team.

Misnomer?

 

The payroll peaked in 2011 following a good 10', and a move into a new stadium, and then instantly it was slashed. It hasn't been anywhere near that 10' - 11' mark since. Even with those "big FA signings," they've still finished in the bottom half of the league in spending every year since 11'. Revenue across baseball is increasing every year but the Twins payroll has actually decreased each of the last 2 seasons, and the difference between 16' and 17' was fairly significant. I agree this team is starting to open a window of contention, but this young core didn't sneak up on ownership. They knew this team was moving towards being competitive and rather than bringing in talent they've cut spending the past few seasons. To me, the opposing trends in spending vs. performance don't seem to reflect an ownership group that is willing is spend. 

 

Honestly, I would love to see them start spending on top FAs, but right now it isn't a misnomer that the Twins forego being real players in free agency; it's reality.

[drjim]

Misnomer?

 

The payroll peaked in 2011 following a good 10', and a move into a new stadium, and then instantly it was slashed. It hasn't been anywhere near that 10' - 11' mark since. Even with those "big FA signings," they've still finished in the bottom half of the league in spending every year since 11'. Revenue across baseball is increasing every year but the Twins payroll has actually decreased each of the last 2 seasons, and the difference between 16' and 17' was fairly significant. I agree this team is starting to open a window of contention, but this young core didn't sneak up on ownership. They knew this team was moving towards being competitive and rather than bringing in talent they've cut spending the past few seasons. To me, the opposing trends in spending vs. performance don't seem to reflect an ownership group that is willing is spend.

 

Honestly, I would love to see them start spending on top FAs, but right now it isn't a misnomer that the Twins forego being real players in free agency; it's reality.

Part of the problem was the lack of internal options to spend money on. They were so desperate they extendes veterans when they should have either traded them to acquire future assets or not overpaid to sign such mediocre vets in the first place.

 

Going for the top free agents on long contracts the last several years would left them with big money for players that were declining. It's a good thing that isn't the case now beyond Hughes.

 

The Twins spent too much during the down years. Isn't that obvious now after witnessing the well executed rebuilds of the Cubs and Astros during the relatively same timeframe?

[strumdatjaguar]

No Jaime Garcia nor Nolasco nor other mid or low rotation types.   The Twins indeed should make no free agent moves on the starting pitching market.    If they are competing in July, then they look to make a trade to upgrade talent wherever that need may be.    Until then, they can add Kintzler and/or some other reliever, invite some potential bounce back players to sign MiLB contract, but mostly go with the program and add on IF they are making a playoff run in July!   At this point, it's Santana, Berrios, Gibson (short leash), Mejia (shorter leash) and competition for the fifth spot (Gonsalves, Slegers, May, . . .)

[jimmer]

Wait a minute.  

 

First some say we actually spent a lot on pitching over the last few years.  Then we read a 3 year, 24.5M FA contract for a veteran player is a pricey contract and now we've gotten to the point where we spent TOO MUCH money over the last few years?

 

Incredible.

 

We are spending BEASTS!

[KirbyDome89]

 

Part of the problem was the lack of internal options to spend money on. They were so desperate they extendes veterans when they should have either traded them to acquire future assets or not overpaid to sign such mediocre vets in the first place.

Going for the top free agents on long contracts the last several years would left them with big money for players that were declining. It's a good thing that isn't the case now beyond Hughes.

The Twins spent too much during the down years. Isn't that obvious now after witnessing the well executed rebuilds of the Cubs and Astros during the relatively same timeframe?

That circumstance exists because of their own mismanagement. They don't get pass for not spending because they made a mess for themselves. 

 

So their current pitching situation is better now than it would've been with a big FA pitcher? I'll disagree. The Cubs brought Lester in following a 89 loss season. You can collect talent while waiting for the youth movement to hit. That's what the Twins should've been doing. That's how you maximize a window. We're already hearing arguments against bringing in pitching because the core players need extensions. If they would've brought in a top FA a few years ago that likely 5-6 year contract would be off the books before any of the core hit FA. 

 

I would've been completely onboard for a slash and burn a la Houston, but the Twins are past the point where they can operate like that. I don't think it's that they spent too much, rather they just completely bungled resource allocation/timing.