Twins Big Splash Optimism

[drjim]

That circumstance exists because of their own mismanagement. They don't get pass for not spending because they made a mess for themselves.

 

So their current pitching situation is better now than it would've been with a big FA pitcher? I'll disagree. The Cubs brought Lester in following a 89 loss season. You can collect talent while waiting for the youth movement to hit. That's what the Twins should've been doing. That's how you maximize a window. We're already hearing arguments against bringing in pitching because the core players need extensions. If they would've brought in a top FA a few years ago that likely 5-6 year contract would be off the books before any of the core hit FA.

 

I would've been completely onboard for a slash and burn a la Houston, but the Twins are past the point where they can operate like that. I don't think it's that they spent too much, rather they just completely bungled resource allocation/timing.

The Twins did spend while also being mismanaged. Those aren't mutually exclusive!

 

And while the Cubs did sign Lester, it wasn't in a vacuum. It was clear the offensive core was coming together and ready to be supplemented. He wasn't a random band aid.

[drjim]

Wait a minute.

 

First some say we actually spent a lot on pitching over the last few years. Then we read a 3 year, 24.5M FA contract for a veteran player is a pricey contract and now we've gotten to the point where we spent TOO MUCH money over the last few years?

 

Incredible.

 

We are spending BEASTS!

The Twins did spend plenty, in the upper half of all free agent outlays in that time period.

 

I don't think the original Hughes contract was spendy, but the extension certainly was.

 

And it was the wrong strategy. They should have been much more aggressive selling assets and signing more short term guys to flip. Is this especially debatable?

[drjim]

My mea culpa is I was generally supportive of the plan they executed:

-extending Perkins

-extending Suzuki

-extending Burton

-extending Hughes

-signing Nolasco

etc

 

They should have been flipping all those guys and not signing the four year pitchers.

 

The Twins were bad and I was sick of losing and thought if they spent enough and correctly it would lead them to borderline competitiveness. It was a fool's errand and counterproductive to the ultimate long term success of the franchise.

 

These calls that they haven't spent enough since 2011 really miss the big picture of what was happening and what needed to happen to get them right. They are now in a position to make a meaningful addition to a core that is emerging. It would be shocking if they didn't do it.

 

I expect a good starter, one of the top relievers, a decent second reliever, and probably a vet starter on a 1 year deal. Maybe even a vet bat on a 1 year deal, especially if they get a rh 4th of or 3b.

[Thrylos]

 

Wait a minute.  

 

First some say we actually spent a lot on pitching over the last few years.  Then we read a 3 year, 24.5M FA contract for a veteran player is a pricey contract and now we've gotten to the point where we spent TOO MUCH money over the last few years?

 

Incredible.

 

We are spending BEASTS!

 

Spendthift beasts.

 

They'd rather go for 3 mediocre pitchers than give the same money to a top of the rotation pitcher. 

 

Spending is not the issue.

Spending well, is the issue.   Like extending Pelfrey, and singing Nolasco and Hughes instead of spending that $ 30 M or so to go after, lets say, Greinke.

[jimmer]

 

Spendthift beasts.

 

They'd rather go for 3 mediocre pitchers than give the same money to a top of the rotation pitcher. 

 

Spending is not the issue.

Spending well, is the issue.   Like extending Pelfrey, and singing Nolasco and Hughes instead of spending that $ 30 M or so to go after, lets say, Greinke.

Right now, 27 SPs get paid more per year than our highest paid pitcher (Santana, the only good signing).  He gets less than 14M per year.  Hughes, because of his extension, comes in at 29th.

 

Overall, we may have spent quite a bit on SP pitching spread out over 4, 5, 6 pitchers, but that was out of pure necessity (cause we couldn't land a quality SP in a trade and couldn't develop them) and none were really big contracts in today's market.

 

Keep aiming for middle of the road: Cobb, Lynn.

[drjim]

Spendthift beasts.

 

They'd rather go for 3 mediocre pitchers than give the same money to a top of the rotation pitcher.

 

Spending is not the issue.

Spending well, is the issue. Like extending Pelfrey, and singing Nolasco and Hughes instead of spending that $ 30 M or so to go after, lets say, Greinke.

Would have made minimal difference over that stretch.

 

Spending big is generally fruitless unless it is supplementing a strong base of talent. (Like they finally have now)

[Major League Ready]

 

So for the main three you mentioned, 11 years of FA pitching for 122M.  11M a year average for our substantial FA signings, but then some bargain basement ones as well (which count towards conversations about FA signings done to help our rotation, I believe).

 

In any event is 11M a year going to get QUALITY pitching in today's game when 1 WAR is worth about 8M? Quality pitchers cost way more.

 

But, hey, I hope so, but neither Lynn or Cobb are impressive and not sure either are worth a 4/48 contract.

 

Yes, FAs deliver on average 1 WAR per $8M in salary but it makes no sense to average and say you should expect to pay $32M/year for a 4 WAR SP.  Santana produced 8.4 WAR over the last 2 years for 27.5M.  The $8M for every 1 WAR is actually argument that they should not sign any FAs.  It would cost $400M to build a 98 win team via free agency at ab average 1 WAR/$8M.  Obviously the goal is to find the ones that produce 3.27 WAR for every million spent instead of $1M.

 

Lynn produced 10.3 WAR over the last 3 years even with coming back from TJ. Cobb had back to back 3.9 WAR years before TL.   I would be quite happy to add a 3.5-4.0 WAR guy to this staff.

[jimmer]

 

Lynn produced 10.3 WAR over the last 3 years even with coming back from TJ. Cobb had back to back 3.9 WAR years before TL.   I would be quite happy to add a 3.5-4.0 WAR guy to this staff.

Over the last three years Lynn has produced 4.5 fWAR. He HAS produced over 3 fWAR a few times.  In the NL.  Before injury.

 

Cobb's highest fWAR was 2.8 in 2014. 

 

I don't see any evidence either will produce 3.5-5 WAR.  More likely in the 2s (hopefully high 2s).  

 

In truth, I think we will get one of them and maybe whichever it is will do well.  We likely need one SP.

 

 

 

[jimmer]

How do people feel about a 2019 rotation of Berrios, Cobb/Lynn, Gonsalves, May, Mejia?

[drjim]

How do people feel about a 2019 rotation of Berrios, Cobb/Lynn, Gonsalves, May, Mejia?

They'll need another acquisition.

[KirbyDome89]

 

The Twins did spend while also being mismanaged. Those aren't mutually exclusive!

And while the Cubs did sign Lester, it wasn't in a vacuum. It was clear the offensive core was coming together and ready to be supplemented. He wasn't a random band aid.

i realize they aren't exclusive. Yeah, they spent just enough to make sure they were in the bottom half of the league the last six years. 

 

As was the case with the Twins. It was clear the plan was to build with the youth. There was/is no reason to not bring in front end pitching to supplement the team while the positional talent is cheap other than an aversion to spending money, which was my original point.  

[drjim]

i realize they aren't exclusive. Yeah, they spent just enough to make sure they were in the bottom half of the league the last six years.

 

As was the case with the Twins. It was clear the plan was to build with the youth. There was/is no reason to not bring in front end pitching to supplement the team while the positional talent is cheap other than an aversion to spending money, which was my original point.

Front end starters are not readily available, and as was shown in a different post, they aren't especially good investments. They lock up significant money and give most of their value early, when the Twins were not going to be competitive. By the time they got good again the contract would be an albatross. That is pretty poor asset management.

 

The Twins didn't do it right, but it clearly could have been worse.

[tvagle]

 

How do people feel about a 2019 rotation of Berrios, Cobb/Lynn, Gonsalves, May, Mejia?

I'll departmentalize this for comparison

 

Team Accountant - WooHoo!!!

Team Owner - Ka-Ching!!!!!

General Manager - Looking for the first chance to bolt for chance to WIN a WildCard Game

Bullpen - Investing in Icy-Hot

Manager - Wearing a path in sacred Target Field grass from dugout to mound

Buxton/Sano/Rosario/Kepler - at least we're one year closer to Free Agency

This Fan - finally get to see the young arms on FSN telecasts but not contributing to Money Saving Ownership

[h2oface]

I wonder what it would take to get a fine 4th outfielder, Aaron Hicks, in a trade from NY?

[rdehring]

 

How do people feel about a 2019 rotation of Berrios, Cobb/Lynn, Gonsalves, May, Mejia?

Not certain Mejia can be counted on.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Front end starters are not readily available, and as was shown in a different post, they aren't especially good investments. They lock up significant money and give most of their value early, when the Twins were not going to be competitive. By the time they got good again the contract would be an albatross. That is pretty poor asset management.

The Twins didn't do it right, but it clearly could have been worse.

There were a number of big pitchers signed in 14' and 15', none of them are signed beyond when any of the Twins core hits FA, and all of them would slot in ahead of any pitcher this team currently has. That isn't an albatross, it's stability for a rotation that desperately needs it. FA signing rarely are great value; that's why it's important to draft and develop well, you can offset the overpay. 

[ahart10]

How do people feel about a 2019 rotation of Berrios, Cobb/Lynn, Gonsalves, May, Mejia?

Put Garret Cole at the front and May in the pen as Twins version of Betances.

Or maybe just trade for Betances.

[jimmer]

 

Put Garret Cole at the front and May in the pen as Twins version of Betances.
Or maybe just trade for Betances.

I want May as a starter, myself.

[ashbury]

Regarding the original direction of this thread, it happens that Nick Cafardo in his weekly column in the Boston Daily Fishwrap mentions our Twins more than once this morning.

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/11/11/which-teams-will-most-active-meetings/SyEfjn7bHdOdYkl0AsMg4K/story.html

 

(Partial paywall, but you generally can get a few free articles per month.)

 

In particular, his lead item about the upcoming GM meetings includes the Twins among the teams to watch. I think it's fair use to extract this paragraph from the lengthy piece:

 

"The small-market Twins may be thinking big this offseason. They had a fine 2017 and made the playoffs, and now need a No. 1-type pitcher to reach the next level. Joe Mauer's enormous contract ends after the 2018 season so they are likely able to take on some payroll. GM Thad Levine has a history with Darvish from their Texas days, so it wouldn't be overly surprising to see the Twins show some interest. Alex Cobb will definitely be on their radar."

 

He details 12 teams in total, so it's not like the Twins are uniquely interesting. But they're not part of the underclass of 18 teams that don't "bear watching", so there's that. In the evergreen debate on whether we're "small-" or "medium-" market, he comes down clearly on the former side, which may or may not color your view of the rest of what he says.

 

Anyway, he's a source that seems "optimistic" in the sense used here, untainted by any particular passion for the team himself. Could be just the baseball-writer echo chamber, of course.

 

(If you click the link, you'll also see mention of a couple of recent scout signings for the Twins, and of Brandon Kintzler free-agency rumblings with an editorial comment on trading him at the deadline.)

[jimmer]

Twins are not a small market team.  Maybe compared to Boston

[drjim]

A lot of smoke around the game.

[mazeville]

 

Misnomer?

 

The payroll peaked in 2011 following a good 10', and a move into a new stadium, and then instantly it was slashed. It hasn't been anywhere near that 10' - 11' mark since. Even with those "big FA signings," they've still finished in the bottom half of the league in spending every year since 11'. Revenue across baseball is increasing every year but the Twins payroll has actually decreased each of the last 2 seasons, and the difference between 16' and 17' was fairly significant. I agree this team is starting to open a window of contention, but this young core didn't sneak up on ownership. They knew this team was moving towards being competitive and rather than bringing in talent they've cut spending the past few seasons. To me, the opposing trends in spending vs. performance don't seem to reflect an ownership group that is willing is spend. 

 

Honestly, I would love to see them start spending on top FAs, but right now it isn't a misnomer that the Twins forego being real players in free agency; it's reality.

 

Their spending decreased because the team was playing like garbage. 

 

Had I been in charge of the team, I would have spent the 2012 offseason dumping salaries and collecting prospects. I would have done more of that a year later. I would have waited an awful long time to sign free agents of note.

 

The Twins did some of that, but then before they were truly ready they signed Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco. They signed Josh Willingham and Kurt Suzuki. Maybe they didn't play in the same sandbox as do the Red Sox and the Yankees, but they were clearly signing free agents. 

 

After Phil Hughes had one good season, they signed him to a highly misguided extension. Rather than trade Glen Perkins at peak value, they signed him to an extension. 

 

Do not say they don't spend. They do.

 

Also, you note that they reduced spending in 2017. OF COURSE THEY DID! They lost 103 games in 2016! No way on earth should they have signed big-name free agents that offseason. They needed to give young players the opportunity to play after that debacle. 

 

And you note that "revenues across baseball are increasing." Do you have evidence that the Twins' revenue is increasing? Because it sure looks to me that, based on attendance, the Twins' revenue has been down because of their inability to win. 

 

There's plenty of reason to believe the Twins' new front office will change things this year. If they don't, I'll be right with people complaining. But I choose to be optimistic this offseason. You all go ahead and live in your unnecessarily pessimistic world.

[nicksaviking]

How do people feel about a 2019 rotation of Berrios, Cobb/Lynn, Gonsalves, May, Mejia?

I feel there still isn't anyone there to match up with Verlander, Kluber, Sale or Severino.

 

Signing a bunch of #3s might get a couple extra wins in the regular season but they don't mean a thing when the first round of the playoffs is one game.

[notoriousgod71]

 

How do people feel about a 2019 rotation of Berrios, Cobb/Lynn, Gonsalves, May, Mejia?

 

Looks very similar to this season in that I have faith in two of them to be quality MLB pitchers.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Their spending decreased because the team was playing like garbage. 

 

Had I been in charge of the team, I would have spent the 2012 offseason dumping salaries and collecting prospects. I would have done more of that a year later. I would have waited an awful long time to sign free agents of note.

 

The Twins did some of that, but then before they were truly ready they signed Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco. They signed Josh Willingham and Kurt Suzuki. Maybe they didn't play in the same sandbox as do the Red Sox and the Yankees, but they were clearly signing free agents. 

 

After Phil Hughes had one good season, they signed him to a highly misguided extension. Rather than trade Glen Perkins at peak value, they signed him to an extension. 

 

Do not say they don't spend. They do.

 

Also, you note that they reduced spending in 2017. OF COURSE THEY DID! They lost 103 games in 2016! No way on earth should they have signed big-name free agents that offseason. They needed to give young players the opportunity to play after that debacle. 

 

And you note that "revenues across baseball are increasing." Do you have evidence that the Twins' revenue is increasing? Because it sure looks to me that, based on attendance, the Twins' revenue has been down because of their inability to win. 

 

There's plenty of reason to believe the Twins' new front office will change things this year. If they don't, I'll be right with people complaining. But I choose to be optimistic this offseason. You all go ahead and live in your unnecessarily pessimistic world.

Everything is addressed in previous posts. If you choose to ignore the salary numbers and trends in spending/revenue/profit because they don't fit the "Twins spend," narrative then that's your choice. 

 

You can easily google the Twin's revenue over the last decade +. Check out those new TV deals teams are signing then take a look at the revenue sharing going on. The Twin's revenue has increased dramatically since Target Field opened yet the payroll has been trending in the opposite direction. 

 

This FO hasn't done anything to indicate the Twins are suddenly going to start spending real money in FA. Any reason to believe they will is pure hope. If you choose to approach the offseason believing they'll break the bank that's fine, but the only thing "unnecessary," is attacking other posters for being realistic. 

[IaFan1]

I would be optimistic they would be more active if there were more home town boys that were entering free agency and want to play for the home town team at a discount.  Similar to Jack Morris, Paul Molitor, Dave Winfield and Terry Steinbach. I don't see that so I doubt we will see any premium free agents in Minnesota next year.

[mazeville]

 

Everything is addressed in previous posts. If you choose to ignore the salary numbers and trends in spending/revenue/profit because they don't fit the "Twins spend," narrative then that's your choice. 

 

You can easily google the Twin's revenue over the last decade +. Check out those new TV deals teams are signing then take a look at the revenue sharing going on. The Twin's revenue has increased dramatically since Target Field opened yet the payroll has been trending in the opposite direction. 

 

This FO hasn't done anything to indicate the Twins are suddenly going to start spending real money in FA. Any reason to believe they will is pure hope. If you choose to approach the offseason believing they'll break the bank that's fine, but the only thing "unnecessary," is attacking other posters for being realistic. 

 

I'm not ignoring the salary numbers and the spending. What I'm saying is that the number of losses made it completely understandable that they reduced spending since 2011. As I said in previous posts, I would have done even more, simply to focus on younger players, much like the Houston Astros did.

 

There's plenty of evidence to suggest this team is ready to spend. That's what you choose to ignore. 

[Wizard11]

Count me in the "irrationally" optimistic set.  I feel comparisons between the Ryan administration history and Falvine are not valid (at least yet).   Hard to see the past GM caring about pitch framing and spending $24MM to address it.   The new management pivoted fairly quickly on mistakes such as Byung Ho Park and were summarily unconcerned with losing him to waivers.   Moreover, I feel conflating Jim Pohlad with Carl Pohlad is not valid.   Carl would (IMO) never have fired Terry Ryan mid season, or taken accountability for "total system failure, or gone outside the organization to look for not just a new GM, but in fact an entire new front office structure.   I like their interest in young, talented controllable players such as the recent interest in Raisel Iglesias.   If our only metric for the change in the FO is huge payroll size or big FA signings then by that standard most FO's are flops as that is the peruse of a handful of teams.   That said, I do feel there is going to be way too much money chasing way too little starting pitching talent and I think the Twins would be wise to stay out of that game and stick to building a sustainable winner.   My only incongruent caveat would be if they have a real chance to sign Shoei Otani.  Then by gum lavishly promise and spend like Congress and reel him in.

[notoriousgod71]

 

I would be optimistic they would be more active if there were more home town boys that were entering free agency and want to play for the home town team at a discount.  Similar to Jack Morris, Paul Molitor, Dave Winfield and Terry Steinbach. I don't see that so I doubt we will see any premium free agents in Minnesota next year.

 

I assume Dan Johnson is still available.

[Twodogs]

I'd say they would be better off spending if they so wish to spend to bring in new blood for the staff. If you trade for players in the off season and burn the one or two trade chips they got, then they will be S. Outta Luck when the trade deadline comes, which could be important if they are in the running at that time. Just my point of view.