Twins Big Splash Optimism

[IndianaTwin]

 

I hope they do NOT sign an expensive starter this off-season. In 2018, Cleveland is likely to again win the division and the Twins are likely again to be playing for the wild card. Adding Darvish, Arrieta, Lynn or Cobb would not be likely to change that. An expensive starter in 2018 would, however, add risk of having dead money in 2019 and later years, when their chances of beating Cleveland are better and when spending money would have a chance of improving outcomes.

I hope they DO spend money on relievers this winter. It is likely that the Twins will have some interesting rookie starters in 2018 and having a deep and good bullpen would ease the stress and help cover up mistakes.

If the team looks good at the trade deadline, I hope the Twins do look at adding a good starter at that time. You would hope that pitcher has a good health history.

 

You've convinced me. I was in the "sign a top SP" camp, but I think your comment about signing one of that list not being enough to push us past Cleveland as a favorite seems on target.

 

In addition, is it just me or did the position players have an unusually healthy year? Other than Sano, no one missed a particularly long stretch of games. Though one of those starters would be a help, a key injury or two to a position play would easily counteract that. Given overall good luck this year, I could easily see a situation where the team is generally better, but still ends up around 85-87 wins and barely in the wild card chase.

 

So I'll go along with you, with a couple of minor suggestions/adjustments. If one of the starters is 4/$56 (MLBTR projection on Lynn), instead spend the $56MM on some combination of Addison Reed (4/$36MM), Brandon Morrow (3/$24MM), Juan Nicasio/Bryan Shaw (each 3$/21MM), Anthony Swarczak/Brandon Kintzler/Tommy Hunter/Steve Cishek (each 2/$12-$14MM). Get two of them, preferably three. Any one of them has the potential to be a closer, and would team with some of the existing guys (and comers) to make a pretty deep bullpen that has the potential to be there for a couple years without hamstringing future contracts. That would also allow an all-in approach next year on SPs (if still needed) with the money freed up from Mauer and others. 

 

Do the contract extensions on the young guys. 

 

Do kick the tires on a make-good guy on a one-year deal. Chris Tillman comes to mind. If he makes good and we're in it, he's as good as Lance Lynn. If he makes good, but we've slumped, he's trade bait. If he stinks, he's easy to dump, and there's no long-term commitment.

 

Change the "if the team looks good at the trade deadline" to an earlier date, something like June 1. Rather than a two-month rental, make it worth the while and get an asset worth twice as much without spending much more than you would at the end of July. That will also give time to sort out which of the prospects are legit and where the depth is at to trade from. 

[GP830]

 

You've convinced me. I was in the "sign a top SP" camp, but I think your comment about signing one of that list not being enough to push us past Cleveland as a favorite seems on target.

 

In addition, is it just me or did the position players have an unusually healthy year? Other than Sano, no one missed a particularly long stretch of games. Though one of those starters would be a help, a key injury or two to a position play would easily counteract that. Given overall good luck this year, I could easily see a situation where the team is generally better, but still ends up around 85-87 wins and barely in the wild card chase.

 

So I'll go along with you, with a couple of minor suggestions/adjustments. If one of the starters is 4/$56 (MLBTR projection on Lynn), instead spend the $56MM on some combination of Addison Reed (4/$36MM), Brandon Morrow (3/$24MM), Juan Nicasio/Bryan Shaw (each 3$/21MM), Anthony Swarczak/Brandon Kintzler/Tommy Hunter/Steve Cishek (each 2/$12-$14MM). Get two of them, preferably three. Any one of them has the potential to be a closer, and would team with some of the existing guys (and comers) to make a pretty deep bullpen that has the potential to be there for a couple years without hamstringing future contracts. That would also allow an all-in approach next year on SPs (if still needed) with the money freed up from Mauer and others. 

 

Do the contract extensions on the young guys. 

 

Do kick the tires on a make-good guy on a one-year deal. Chris Tillman comes to mind. If he makes good and we're in it, he's as good as Lance Lynn. If he makes good, but we've slumped, he's trade bait. If he stinks, he's easy to dump, and there's no long-term commitment.

 

Change the "if the team looks good at the trade deadline" to an earlier date, something like June 1. Rather than a two-month rental, make it worth the while and get an asset worth twice as much without spending much more than you would at the end of July. That will also give time to sort out which of the prospects are legit and where the depth is at to trade from. 

Yes. This all seems pretty legit-- and I agree with it pretty much whole-heartedly. HOWEVER- if there's a shot we can sign Otani-- by all means, do it.

[Tomj14]

 

How do people feel about a 2019 rotation of Berrios, Cobb/Lynn, Gonsalves, May, Mejia?

I don't like going into next season expecting May can give us anything, I hope he does but I am not expecting much, so replace him with Gibson and I think that is enough of a starting staff for us to contend for a wild card spot.

 

My real hope is that the front office is looking at the 2019 40 man roster and seeing that keeping all of our prospects and the major league team isn't option, and they are going though the prospects to see which ones they want to keep and which ones they can trade for a controller starter. (which IMO is why they are looking at the Reds closer and others similar. )

[jimmer]

I don't like going into next season expecting May can give us anything, I hope he does but I am not expecting much, so replace him with Gibson and I think that is enough of a starting staff for us to contend for a wild card spot.

In fairness, I did say 2019 season, not next season ;-)

[Major League Ready]

 

Right now, 27 SPs get paid more per year than our highest paid pitcher (Santana, the only good signing).  He gets less than 14M per year.  Hughes, because of his extension, comes in at 29th.

 

Overall, we may have spent quite a bit on SP pitching spread out over 4, 5, 6 pitchers, but that was out of pure necessity (cause we couldn't land a quality SP in a trade and couldn't develop them) and none were really big contracts in today's market.

 

Keep aiming for middle of the road: Cobb, Lynn.

 

Jimmer.  Let's be fair.  How many of those 27 SPs have been better than Santana.  The key to success is getting production out of lower cost players when other teams have far more revenue.  Many fans speak as if the big $ players are a much better bet.  That list of the 2015 class that was posted recently certainly does not substantiate that rational.  Let's keep in mind the downside of these failed contracts.  I would rather spend the money on extending our core.  How many big $ guys does Cleveland have on their roster?  They have demonstrated how a mid market team can build a team that can contend for several years.  Can you name a team inn the same revenue class as the Twins that has ever built a contender where the most productive players were top free agents?

 

Perhaps an even better question is ... Are there any big dollar free agents the Twins should bet on to carry this core to contention.  They will cripple our chances of contention If they sign a $30M contract that ends up being dead weight.  Arietta?  No way am I risking our future for him.  Darvish ... Maybe but even Darvish does not get us close to contending with Houston / Boston / NY & Cleveland.  For me it comes down to how many years will we have Darvish big $ after his production is fallen.  I would rather extend Buxton and a couple others and widen our window of contention.  Buy rentals when we are truly a contender.

 

Audition and the plethora of pitching prospects we have and establish another starter or two as well as a couple bullpen arms this year.  Let's go into what will be an incredible free agents class next year and fills the final gaps.

 

[USAFChief]

 

Jimmer.  Let's be fair.  How many of those 27 SPs have been better than Santana.  The key to success is getting production out of lower cost players when other teams have far more revenue.  Many fans speak as if the big $ players are a much better bet.  That list of the 2015 class that was posted recently certainly does not substantiate that rational.  Let's keep in mind the downside of these failed contracts.  I would rather spend the money on extending our core.  How many big $ guys does Cleveland have on their roster?  They have demonstrated how a mid market team can build a team that can contend for several years.  Can you name a team inn the same revenue class as the Twins that has ever built a contender where the most productive players were top free agents?

 

Perhaps an even better question is ... Are there any big dollar free agents the Twins should bet on to carry this core to contention.  They will cripple our chances of contention If they sign a $30M contract that ends up being dead weight.  Arietta?  No way am I risking our future for him.  Darvish ... Maybe but even Darvish does not get us close to contending with Houston / Boston / NY & Cleveland.  For me it comes down to how many years will we have Darvish big $ after his production is fallen.  I would rather extend Buxton and a couple others and widen our window of contention.  Buy rentals when we are truly a contender.

 

Audition and the plethora of pitching prospects we have and establish another starter or two as well as a couple bullpen arms this year.  Let's go into what will be an incredible free agents class next year and fills the final gaps.

What good does "extending the core" do if the core never has the pitching to win?

 

That's not a "window of contention." That's a longer window of "not good enough."

[woolywoolhouse]

Why should the Front Office say they're open to spending more money in the paper or online? That only weakens their negotiations when the time comes.

[Major League Ready]

 

What good does "extending the core" do if the core never has the pitching to win?

 

That's not a "window of contention." That's a longer window of "not good enough."

 

There are so many things wrong with this I am not sure where to start.  Perhaps the best place is that I said let's wait until next year if Darvish or Arietta are not the right guys.   I also mentioned deadline acquisitions.  Perhaps most importantly, how does passing on these guys eliminate all of the other potential means of acquiring SP. 

 

Why can't we start with Cobb or Lynn this year and acquire an even better SP next year when the core is one year closer to their prime and there are hopefully better available FAs?  If we pass on Darvish and Arietta does this somehow prohibit our prospects from panning out or perhaps even exceed expectations?  Does this prohibit Falvey and Levine from making the kinds of deals that facilitated Cleveland's rise to contention?

[Mr. Brooks]

Why should the Front Office say they're open to spending more money in the paper or online? That only weakens their negotiations when the time comes.

How, specifically, does that hurt their negotiating power?

Setting a guaranteed salary floor would, obviously, but how does simply "being open" to spending more hurt?

[laloesch]

Well Jake Arrietta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn have all turned down their qualifying offers. If the Twins wish to be aggressive and sign one of these guys now is there one and only chance.

[spinowner]

 

What good does "extending the core" do if the core never has the pitching to win?

 

It will create an environment that will make good FA pitchers want to sign with us during future off-seasons.

[USAFChief]

It will create an environment that will make good FA pitchers want to sign with us during future off-seasons.

but not now?

[Mr. Brooks]

This isn't an endorsement for, or against signing any FA's, but if the FO can't multitask extending players, AND signing FA pitchers in the same off season, then I think they should hire more executives.

[ND-Fan]

I think there is more of chance this years Twins are going to sign some players in the off season. Here's my take Pohlad gave interview earlier this year in that discussion he thought they would have to add some to this team but he was asked about risk in doing this and he stated that they would have to take some risk and maybe wouldn't turn out but more had to be done to make the club a winner. Now recent interview by Levine has been about sticker shock and then going to trade market and then high price of trading then going back to FA market again. Also quotes from Levine and Falvey that they would have to be more active this winter and they know the needs of team more this year. I also believe another positive to them making a move is from last summer heat they caught from fan base, and from business side of Twins when they subtracted instead of adding helping this team.

[caninatl04]

No.  What I see is from fans who want to be front office and wish they could motivate those in charge.  At this point the FO is still a mystery.  What I have seen and understand so far is: 

 

• They felt a catcher with framing skills would help the pitching staff and signed Castro and Giminez.  Not a big splash, just filling a need.
• They thought the Bullpen needed some veteran help so they got Belisle, Breslow and nothing here was a splash or showed a propensity for big spending or glamour.
• They wanted to test a lot of pitchers to see if there was a hidden gem - there wasn't names like Tepesch, Wilks...will be trivia answers in the future.
• They observed the coaches, immediately changed the batting coaches which seems to have really helped and took longer than I expected to change pitching coaches.
• Now they want to put their team together of management and coaching from minors to majors and to dump some of the old "Twins" way.

So really nothing here that indicated spending and chasing a dream.  It seems methodical and we are still watching the movements and the indicators to see what is next.   I believe Cleveland locked up its young players before taking the next steps and I expect that to be the first agenda item, but still not sure.

I could not agree more. I believe the moves will reflect slow and steady with an emphasis more on 2020. Hopefully, by then, the Indians will have lost enough to free agency. My best guess? Two relievers and a lottery ticket on an ancient SP.

 

Just to have this committed to posterity,

 

2018. 78 wins

2019. 88 wins

2020. 96 wins

[drjim]

 

I could not agree more. I believe the moves will reflect slow and steady with an emphasis more on 2020. Hopefully, by then, the Indians will have lost enough to free agency. My best guess? Two relievers and a lottery ticket on an ancient SP.

Just to have this committed to posterity,

2018. 78 wins
2019. 88 wins
2020. 96 wins

 

You're a year conservative. 2018 should be decent, but 2019 is when it really comes together in my opinion.

[drjim]

Jon Heyman continually playing with our emotions:

 

https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-twins-like-darvish-arrieta-but-darvish-tops-list/

 

The Twins might end up exceeding my optimistic expectations.

[davidc3915]

Plus, we're hopeful that this front office will be different than the last one, or that ownership's budget philosophy will be different with new management. 

 

My personal prediction is that they won't get anyone better than Alex Cobb (the 5th best starter in this market) and I'd probably put the over/under even less than that. Instead, I kinda expect a couple of much lower level guys they sign as lottery tickets to see if any of them hit. 

 

We'll see, I guess. 

My sentiments exactly......

[SF Twins Fan]

I don't understand the sentiment to wait until next offseason to make the move and sign a top tier starting pitcher.  The Twins are finally in a win NOW position.  Basically all of the position players are locked in young and cheap (besides a DH/1B backup), they have a couple of solid 2 - 3ish pitchers in Santana and Berries with a couple of young pitchers that will be in AAA this year and some solid young bullpen guys that debuted this season.  There is no reason what so ever to not go after at least one legit starting and one legit relief pitcher this offseason...NONE.

 

Plus they have should have plenty of payroll if they actually spend 50 - 52% of revenue.  Mauer's large contract is off the books after this season as well.  Signing a couple of legit pitchers this offseason shouldn't hurt the Twins from making moves at the deadline or next offseason.

[ashbury]

You're a year conservative. 2018 should be decent, but 2019 is when it really comes together in my opinion.

I agree. We have a good young core, but they're not all that young anymore. A lot of the really top hitters in baseball history had monster years at age 25, and that's where our key talent is or will be soon. It's not impossible that 2018 is a small step backwards in terms of team record, but they'd better be really clicking in 2019 or this rebuild is going to be looking pretty questionable.

[laloesch]

 

Jon Heyman continually playing with our emotions:

 

https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-twins-like-darvish-arrieta-but-darvish-tops-list/

 

The Twins might end up exceeding my optimistic expectations.

 

Meh...actions speak louder than words.  They can look, like, target, talk, whatever, all they want but if they don't actually sign anyone good it's completely meaningless.  Who wouldn't like Darvish or Arrietta? 

[Winston Smith]

I don't see it happening but signing Darvish might be the best way to get an Ohtani  signing. 

[GP830]

There just seems to be an awful lot of smoke around these rumors- hoping there's fire. It's all just lining up so nicely! 

 

So much money coming off the books. I suspect they're planning on letting Joe and Doz walk, and hoping that Gordon and Rooker can step up at that time. 

 

This frees up a ton of money for these big deals we keep hearing about. Nothing would jack up this fanbase more than some  shut down pitcher to rally behind. 

[Riverbrian]

I believe that the team will let you know when it is time to step on the gas. 

 

I believe the team let them know it is time to step on the gas. 

 

I'll be disappointed if they don't step on it. 

 

In 2015... The Twins were in it until the last weekend. In the off-season that followed... IMO... Terry Ryan and his staff supported that effort by getting even younger and that was when I went from suspecting that a change at the top was necessary to being sure that a change at the top was necessary. 

 

This off-season... I'm going to fully expect the new regime to fully support the efforts of 2017 and attempt to take it up a level. It isn't time to acquire more young players that we have to wait on... It isn't time to under spend... it's time to step on the gas. 

 

The White Sox, Tigers and Royals are rebuilding. The American League as a whole is weak in the starting pitching department.

 

STEP ON THAT GAS!!! RIGHT NOW!!! 

 

 

[drjim]

 

I agree. We have a good young core, but they're not all that young anymore. A lot of the really top hitters in baseball history had monster years at age 25, and that's where our key talent is or will be soon. It's not impossible that 2018 is a small step backwards in terms of team record, but they'd better be really clicking in 2019 or this rebuild is going to be looking pretty questionable.

 

You put it a better way. If they aren't really good in 2019 the rebuild is very questionable. Only 2 more years before half the core hits free agency.

[drjim]

 

Meh...actions speak louder than words.  They can look, like, target, talk, whatever, all they want but if they don't actually sign anyone good it's completely meaningless.  Who wouldn't like Darvish or Arrietta? 

 

Of course. But Heyman is pretty on top of this stuff. Generally what is leaked in stories like this is more or less what happens. Lots and lots of smoke out there, I would be really surprised if very little happens.

[Major League Ready]

 

Meh...actions speak louder than words.  They can look, like, target, talk, whatever, all they want but if they don't actually sign anyone good it's completely meaningless.  Who wouldn't like Darvish or Arrietta? 

 

I might be putting too much weight on their trends but Arietta scares me.  He will be 32 next year and already appears to be declining.  Reminds me of Shields.  If it takes a 5 year deal, it could really hurt our ability to compete when our core is at their best from 25-29 years old. 

 

Darvish does not seem to be in decline phase yet even though he is only 6 months younger.  History would suggest it's still very risky but I prefer Darvish even though Arietta has been really exciting to watch in the past. 

 

Personally, I would look at a 2 year plan because I would not count on Santana after this year, Berrios still needs some seasoning, and we also need to audition Gonsalves and a few others.  I would rather get Cobb or Lynn this year.   They are two years younger and won't requires as many years.  They will likely be 3 years younger at the end of their contracts which substantial reduces the risk associated with decline.

 

Next year we have another $45M coming off if we don't exercise Santana's option.  Next year will also be a very deep free agent class and we will have had another year to graduate prospects.  Harper, Donaldson, Machado and several others are going to absorb big free agent dollars next year and we will be in a better position to compete for top tier pitching.

[Major League Ready]

 

 

You put it a better way. If they aren't really good in 2019 the rebuild is very questionable. Only 2 more years before half the core hits free agency.

 

2022 - Sano & Buxton

 

2023 - Kepler | Berrios & Polanco

 

If you want to include Mejia, he is a FA in 2024 as are Hildy and Busenitz.

 

[drjim]

 

2022 - Sano & Buxton

 

2023 - Kepler | Berrios & Polanco

 

If you want to include Mejia, he is a FA in 2024 as are Hildy and Busenitz.

 

Two more years after the 2019 season (I think I was unclear). I would add Rosario to the 2022 list too.

 

2019 should be the start of a really good 3-4 year run.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

The White Sox, Tigers and Royals are rebuilding. The American League as a whole is weak in the starting pitching department.

 

STEP ON THAT GAS!!! RIGHT NOW!!! 

 

I think there are three really great AL teams in Houston, Cleveland and Boston. However the Twins and New York have a chance to join them. The Yankees probably need one more stud starter, which will be hard to do if they plan on staying under the payroll tax threshold.

 

The Twins need two stud starters, more velocity in the pen and a couple of the bats have to reach maximum potential. That sounds like a lot but I think they can do it with the right moves and a hardy and open checkbook.