Is Buxton gonna be an MVP candidate next year?

[gagu]

 

Mike Trout is already 1/3 of the way to Babe Ruth in WAR, and just turned 26... so.. Hi. 

Trout isn't a third of the way to Ruth if you count the latter's 20.6 WAR he earned as a pitcher. The important thing about that detail isn't the number, but that Ruth didn't become a regular in the field until his age 24 season, a year where he also pitched 133 innings. It wasn't until his age 25 season that he racked up the first of nine WARs of 10 and higher as a batter. Trout needs 110 WAR to beat Bonds and 130 WAR to catch Ruth. Trout has the potential, and he is a truly great player, but besting Ruth is a very tall order.

[mikecgrimes]

 

Mike Trout is already 1/3 of the way to Babe Ruth in WAR, and just turned 26... so.. Hi. 

 

He's over 7 WAR short of 1 third

[caninatl04]

I have a feeling of deja-vu. After Buxton's great September last year, we had a similar discussion, which lasted the off-season.

 

I suggest we postpone until May 2018. If Buxton can clear the Mendoza line by then (or, gasp, even hit .260), we can re-address it.

 

By the way, what constitutes a "candidate"? Would a handful of third place votes qualify?

[adorduan]

 

I've always thought Eric Davis (like someone else said earlier).  A healthy Eric Davis was awesome!

If Buxton becomes Eric Davis part 2 I'd be thrilled.  Career of .269/.359./.841. and great defensively.

[ahart10]

Buxton seems a lot like Jackie Bradley Jr. JBJ struggled early in his career while playing great defense in centerfield. Both were high prospects. JBJ figured out his offense after a couple of seasons and has leveled out.

 

Hopefully Buck can surpass him and play more like Mookie or McCutchen and be that MVP type player we're all wanting.

[Thrylos]

 

If Buxton becomes Eric Davis part 2 I'd be thrilled.  Career of .269/.359./.841. and great defensively.

 

In 1986 Eric Davis hit 27 HRs and stole 80 bases.
In 1987 he hit 37 HRs and stole 50 bases.

 

I do not see Byron Buxton come near to those numbers as a total of HR+SB in a season (107, 87)

 

And Davis had only 2 All Star invitations and was at best 9th in the MVP vote...

[Broker]

 

Mike Trout is already 1/3 of the way to Babe Ruth in WAR, and just turned 26... so.. Hi. 

The Babe was a pitcher until he was 25. . . so Hi

[Darius]

Thrylos tweet on Gleeman twitter again. Pretty funny.

[Darius]

In 1986 Eric Davis hit 27 HRs and stole 80 bases.

In 1987 he hit 37 HRs and stole 50 bases.

 

I do not see Byron Buxton come near to those numbers as a total of HR+SB in a season (107, 87)

 

And Davis had only 2 All Star invitations and was at best 9th in the MVP vote...

Davis had 5.3 and 7.9 WAR in those seasons, respectively.

 

Byron already has 4.3 this year. Davis' 7-year peak WAR was around 30. That's a shade over 4 per year.

 

He'll beat Davis' second best season of 5.3 this year, and he's just figured out only recently. Something tells me he'll crush that 7-year peak (could post 50).

 

Dude, as much as you don't want to back off your take, Buxton is freaking amazing.

[mikecgrimes]

 

In 1986 Eric Davis hit 27 HRs and stole 80 bases.
In 1987 he hit 37 HRs and stole 50 bases.

 

I do not see Byron Buxton come near to those numbers as a total of HR+SB in a season (107, 87)

 

And Davis had only 2 All Star invitations and was at best 9th in the MVP vote...

 

Is there anywhere you can look up the WAR formula, I'd like to know the SB to CS ratio to remain positive because I have a tough time imagining most base stealers have a significant net positive impact.  Also as much as i love a guy like Buxton on 2nd instead of first it's not as impactful as a guy like a 35 year old Paul Molitor gaining 2nd when he's not gonna score from 1st on nearly every double like Buxton.

[jimmer]

 

Davis had 5.3 and 7.9 WAR in those seasons, respectively.

Byron already has 4.3 this year. Davis' 7-year peak WAR was around 30. That's a shade over 4 per year.

 

you talking bWAR?

[Dantes929]

 

Man that's creepy. 

 

Did you just summon his spirit? Or did you dig up his body and you're doing the whole Norman Bates bit?

Hey.  If Babe Ruth were alive right now... well, I guess he'd be trying to claw his way out of the coffin.

[prouster]

you talking bWAR?

I think that's bWAR. He's at 2.5 or so on Fangraphs and (I think) 3.8 WARP at Baseball Prospectus. So all in all, a very solid season thus far.

[prouster]

In 1986 Eric Davis hit 27 HRs and stole 80 bases.

In 1987 he hit 37 HRs and stole 50 bases.

 

I do not see Byron Buxton come near to those numbers as a total of HR+SB in a season (107, 87)

 

And Davis had only 2 All Star invitations and was at best 9th in the MVP vote...

This seems like cherry picking to me. What's your point? It reads like you're saying Davis was really good, but actually not that good. I guess you'll be right on Buxton either way, then.

[gil4]

 

Let's cool the jets and not be typical overreacting Minnesota sports fan. Yes, big picture Buck has the potential to be an MVP candidate. It still might take a few years and more ups and downs before he stays consistent. I prefer to enjoy the process and watch him progress (hopefully) into a Trout type superstar.

Probably wise advice, since I'm still waiting for Liriano to win his Cy Young.

[amjgt]

Technically isn't everyone an MVP candidate?

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

He clearly still has the potential to be one, as he is showing right now, and from his numbers in the MiLB. However, He still needs to prove that he can actually begin a season like this, stay healthy, and sustain the good numbers. Those are things he has yet to prove. I am sure hoping he can do it though.

[Doubles]

 

Thrylos tweet on Gleeman twitter again. Pretty funny.

 

Gleeman should learn to let some things go.    Trying to make other people look or feel foolish isn't a good look.    

 

Just as I should learn to let go the inability of others to let go.

[drjim]

 

Gleeman should learn to let some things go.    Trying to make other people look or feel foolish isn't a good look.    

 

Just as I should learn to let go the inability of others to let go.

 

I almost always agree with this, but for some persistent trolls it is probably OK to make an exception.

[Craig Arko]

 

Technically isn't everyone an MVP candidate?

At least everybody gets a gold star.

[Doomtints]

 

In 1986 Eric Davis hit 27 HRs and stole 80 bases.
In 1987 he hit 37 HRs and stole 50 bases.

 

I do not see Byron Buxton come near to those numbers as a total of HR+SB in a season (107, 87)

 

And Davis had only 2 All Star invitations and was at best 9th in the MVP vote...

 

Mauer and Morneau won MVP awards without those numbers. There isn't any metric that equates to winning an MVP award, but if I had to pick one that seems to fit it would have to be OPS.

 

If Buxton finishes a year with 1.000+ OPS, is he an MVP candidate? Yes. Can he do it? I think so.

 

Last year, fans got excited over Buxton hitting well over the last month. This was premature. But he has now been hitting well for 45 days with no sign of slowing down and in fact he is getting BETTER even when playing near the top of the order. He has turned the corner. Does this mean he will never have a slump? No, all players have them.

[Craig Arko]

 

Last year, fans got excited over Buxton hitting well over the last month. This was premature. But he has now been hitting well for 45 days with no sign of slowing down and in fact he is getting BETTER even when playing near the top of the order. He has turned the corner. Does this mean he will never have a slump? No, all players have them.

And what did Rod Carew do when he hit a slump? He'd start bunting for hits, so he could still help the team while his timing/swing worked themselves out. Buxton is capable of doing this.

[laloesch]

 

Mauer and Morneau won MVP awards without those numbers. There isn't any metric that equates to winning an MVP award, but if I had to pick one that seems to fit it would have to be OPS.

 

If Buxton finishes a year with 1.000+ OPS, is he an MVP candidate? Yes. Can he do it? I think so.

 

Last year, fans got excited over Buxton hitting well over the last month. This was premature. But he has now been hitting well for 45 days with no sign of slowing down and in fact he is getting BETTER even when playing near the top of the order. He has turned the corner. Does this mean he will never have a slump? No, all players have them.

 

More consistency is the key to his success.

[SwainZag]

 

I have a feeling of deja-vu. After Buxton's great September last year, we had a similar discussion, which lasted the off-season.

I suggest we postpone until May 2018. If Buxton can clear the Mendoza line by then (or, gasp, even hit .260), we can re-address it.

By the way, what constitutes a "candidate"? Would a handful of third place votes qualify?

 

The difference is in the strikeouts though.  Even in September last year he still struck out 33.6% of the time, which was his 2nd best month in that category last year.  In the 2nd half this year he has cut that number to 23.4%, so over 10%!!  

 

Assuming he could do that over a full seaosn and keep his BABIP at his career level of .323...that is a huge difference.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Gleeman should learn to let some things go.    Trying to make other people look or feel foolish isn't a good look.    

 

Just as I should learn to let go the inability of others to let go.

 

It's why I don't follow him anymore, frankly.

[Brian]

 

If Buxton finishes a year with 1.000+ OPS, is he an MVP candidate? Yes. Can he do it? I think so.

 

I want whatever you're drinking. (but will gladly eat crow if it happens  )

[Mr. Brooks]

I want whatever you're drinking. (but will gladly eat crow if it happens )

Well he's OPS'ing over 1.000 since the end of June, with no underlying stats screaming lucky.

Oh, and he's only 23 years old.

I don't see any reason to think he can't put up 1 or 2 1.000 OPS seasons during his peak.

[DaveW]

It should also be noted that the walks will likely come as well. Prior to this breakout teams had no reason not to pitch right at him/after him, now they are going to start pitching around him from time to time most likely, I trust he will adjust just fine.

Perhaps the most encouraging thing about Buxton has been his 2 strike approach/hitting as of late. When he was struggling he was pretty much DOA the second he got 2 strikes on him, now? No panic, and he is actually getting clutch hits and HR's with 2 strikes. 

THAT is what makes me think that he has finally "got it" even with his nice Sept last year, he never looked like that with 2 strikes.

Im convinced that the thing that seperates the good hitters from the great is how they hit with 2 strikes: Mauer does it, Puckett did it, and Bux is starting to! Exciting!

[drjim]

Well he's OPS'ing over 1.000 since the end of June, with no underlying stats screaming lucky.

Oh, and he's only 23 years old.

I don't see any reason to think he can't put up 1 or 2 1.000 OPS seasons during his peak.

Man, I don't know. This season, if he keeps it up, would be the first 1.000 OPS season for Trout in his career.

 

I can see multiple extended stretches with 1.000 OPS but whole seasons is a tall order.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Man, I don't know. This season, if he keeps it up, would be the first 1.000 OPS season for Trout in his career.

 

I can see multiple extended stretches with 1.000 OPS but whole seasons is a tall order.

Yeah... Given the modern game and Buxton's defense, a 1.000+ season would vault him into the argument of "greatest season of all time".

 

So no. I'll be happy with anything over .800 and thrilled with anything over .850.