Is Buxton gonna be an MVP candidate next year?

[DaveW]

I say yes.

 

What say you?

 

Watching him and trout over the next 5 years is gonna be amazing.

[drjim]

Still think he has ups and downs next year, puts it all together in 2019. Wouldn't mind him jumping the timeline.

 

I see multiple 7-8 WAR (maybe higher) seasons in the very near future. Said it in the spring, wavered a little in April, but been back on that train since the all star break.

[ashbury]

Greatest Baseball Player Of All Time?

 

-or-

 

Greatest Athlete Of All Time?

 

I'm on the fence.

 

 

[mikecgrimes]

Going into today he ranked 47th in all of baseball in WAR, so if he continues to put up offensive #'s he probably gets some votes this year

[Thrylos]

1st half .265 wOBA and 59 wRC+, says no.   Second half there are signs of hope, but his 5.7 BB%, 24.5 K% on the second half, are worrisome.   He still has long ways to go, and like with every young player, he will have his ups and downs and the hope is that each season his down are shorter.  For me to tell that something "clicked" with him, would be to start being more selective at the plate and at least doubling that BB%, because for him a walk might be as good as a double...   And he is not there by any means, yet.

[Tibs]

I think it's possible he could be the best CF in baseball next year. Definitely an MVP candidate if that happens

[jimmer]

 

I think it's possible he could be the best CF in baseball next year. Definitely an MVP candidate if that happens

Mike Trout says 'Whassup'

[akmanak]

Jeeze. SMH

[Bill Brown69]

Well, I hope so!

[goulik]

HOF lock fo sho

[Pardon My Dinger]

You guys shouldn't drink so much on a school night.

[mazeville]

He will if he plays all next year like he has since July 1 of this year. 

 

Not necessarily going to hold my breath about it. But he has as much influence on the game as anyone in baseball when he's on a roll like this. He won those two games in Toronto pretty much by himself, and he won the first game with his speed and defense and the second one with his power. 

[mazeville]

 

1st half .265 wOBA and 59 wRC+, says no.   Second half there are signs of hope, but his 5.7 BB%, 24.5 K% on the second half, are worrisome.   He still has long ways to go, and like with every young player, he will have his ups and downs and the hope is that each season his down are shorter.  For me to tell that something "clicked" with him, would be to start being more selective at the plate and at least doubling that BB%, because for him a walk might be as good as a double...   And he is not there by any means, yet.

 

Dude has been playing at an otherworldly level and is one of the better players in baseball even with a horrific start, having improved in all areas of his offensive game as the season has progressed, and we're nitpicking. 

 

Mike Trout strikes out 20 percent of the time. He gets a lot more walks, true -- he's definitely more selective and is just a better hitter -- but pitchers obviously hate pitching to him. 

 

Buxton is going to strike out a fair amount. Get used to it. He's improved in that area a great deal. Assuming he continues to progress next year, he'll cut down perhaps a bit further. But you have to expect him to strike out a lot. But as long as he produces -- and he's producing -- he'll be fine. 

[drivlikejehu]

I doubt Buxton will ever win an MVP award, because voters don't give full weight to defensive value. Even if Buxton becomes a good hitter, he's never going to be one of the top few hitters in the league, and so his case would always rest on defense to a significant degree. Plus, there's Mike Trout.

[Doomtints]

If he has turned the corner, and I think he has, yes.

 

I felt like it would take him a few months to get rolling this year, which is why I advocated that he start near the bottom of the order and work his way up. I feel like starting him near the top of the order slowed his progress down a bit. Nevertheless, he looks like the player we were expecting to eventually see. Let's hope the injury bug stays away!

[Vanimal46]

Let's take things one step at a time. A good goal for him next year would be to make the All-Star team. 

[alarp33]

 

Let's take things one step at a time. A good goal for him next year would be to make the All-Star team. 

 

Well his bWAR is top 10 in the AL amongst position players, even with the disastrous start to the season.  I think it's a valid question.  

 

I think beginning next season he can certainly be in the mix of players who have a chance to win MVP if Mike Trout gets hurt again

[Respy]

What a difference 1 month makes, eh?

 

I say most probably not.  I don't think his numbers (especially his lack of plate discipline) lend themselves to putting up MVP-caliber numbers on offense any time soon.

 

BUT, a conversation we might be having a few years from now: How much should defense be factored into MVP consideration?  I think most people would argue it's very important, yet most MVP winners in the past couple decades are all about offensive numbers.  For example, Miguel Cabrera should not have won over Trout in 2012 and 2013, in my opinion.  Hopefully the surge of WAR, other advanced statistics, and defensive metrics, will favor amazing defensive players like Buxton in MVP discussions in the future.

[Doomtints]

He is putting up MVP-caliber numbers right now.  

 

All he needs is a season without a slump and he wins the award. That's not an easy thing for any player to do, but I wouldn't bet against Buxton doing this in the long haul.

[gagu]

Comparisons to Trout at this point dilute the argument. A few moons ago, Buxton was looked upon by many as a player whose outstanding defensive play outweighed his mediocre offensive production. I think he has broken out as a hitter and put the abysmal hitting in the rear view mirror for good, but whether he can sustain close to the level of hitting he has brought recently over the long term is a very open question. I'm quite pleased that our guy with a.715 OPS looks like a stone All Star.I'll be open to considering MVP talk in 8 or 9 months. Knock on wood.

 

[Taildragger8791]

 

He is putting up MVP-caliber numbers right now.  

 

All he needs is a season without a slump and he wins the award. That's not an easy thing for any player to do, but I wouldn't bet against Buxton doing this in the long haul.

 

Right or wrong, it usually takes multiple years for a young player to "prove" it to MVP voters.In a close race the thumb is on the side of the scale with veterans who have done it before. See Trout/Cabrera. Trout will likely be the established vet for Buck to beat out.

 

Buxton is also going to also be hampered by how much of his value comes on defense and the basepaths. Even if his hitting numbers are really good they still aren't likely to jump off the page like they do for a traditional cleanup slugger. He isn't going to be top-5 in the league in any offensive metric except probably speed stats like SB and triples. That'll require the voters to be more qualitative in their assessments than they traditionally have been.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Comparisons to Trout at this point dilute the argument. A few moons ago, Buxton was looked upon by many as a player whose outstanding defensive play outweighed his mediocre offensive production. I think he has broken out as a hitter and put the abysmal hitting in the rear view mirror for good, but whether he can sustain close to the level of hitting he has brought recently over the long term is a very open question. I'm quite pleased that our guy with a.715 OPS looks like a stone All Star.I'll be open to considering MVP talk in 8 or 9 months. Knock on wood.

 

How does it dilute the argument? Trout is the standard Buxton has to meet or surpass to win the award. That's where the bar is set, and it's a very high bar. Buck might be able to do it eventually, but next year or even the year after is going to be tough unless this 2nd half guy is the new normal going forward.

[Doomtints]

 

Comparisons to Trout at this point dilute the argument. A few moons ago, Buxton was looked upon by many as a player whose outstanding defensive play outweighed his mediocre offensive production. 

 

Kind of like how Trout looked at the beginning....

[laloesch]

While i like the optimism i would be happy with a good consistent season from him start to finish.  No injuries, no major slumps, a higher OBP, higher BA (280's / 290's), a few home runs.  

[jimmer]

 

Kind of like how Trout looked at the beginning....

You mean, like when Trout was a 20 year old rookie, won ROY, a silver slugger award, finished 2nd in MVP and was actually deserving of MVP?

 

Yeah, at 19, Trout started slow in his first 40 games. At Bucks age he had three 2nd place MVP finishes and a MVP award.

 

The starts to their careers are nothing alike, other than they both play CF.

[DaveW]

I doubt Buxton will ever win an MVP award, because voters don't give full weight to defensive value. Even if Buxton becomes a good hitter, he's never going to be one of the top few hitters in the league, and so his case would always rest on defense to a significant degree. Plus, there's Mike Trout.

He has a .900+ OPs the last couple months. And the Hr power is coming around as well.

 

20 HR 35 SB and a .850-.875 ops with his defense? Watch out.

[Doomtints]

 

You mean, like when Trout was a 20 year old rookie, won ROY, a silver slugger award, finished 2nd in MVP and was actually deserving of MVP?

 

Yeah, at 19, Trout started slow in his first 40 games. At Bucks age he had three 2nd place MVP finishes and a MVP award.

 

The starts to their careers are nothing alike, other than they both play CF.

 

Knock Trout out cold with a concussion right before his debut and I bet you get the same result.

 

If you don't see similarities between these two players you are in the minority. Buxton won't hit for the same power, but he will be equally exciting.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Knock Trout out cold with a concussion right before his debut and I bet you get the same result.

 

If you don't see similarities between these two players you are in the minority. Buxton won't hit for the same power, but he will be equally exciting.

 

equally as exciting as arguably one of the best baseball players ever? That's kind of a high bar.....

 

 

It is exciting and hopeful and all kinds of great superlatives that Buxton is playing like this right now.

[jimmer]

 

Knock Trout out cold with a concussion right before his debut and I bet you get the same result.

 

If you don't see similarities between these two players you are in the minority. Buxton won't hit for the same power, but he will be equally exciting.

Yeah, I seriously doubt I'm in the minority (and don't care if I am, anyway).

 

And I never said Buxton won't be exciting.  He is now. I'm a fan, but the start of his career so far doesn't come close to mirroring Trout's.

 

and Trout getting knocked out right before his debut didn't happen so that hypothetical is just grasping for straws.  You said the starts to their career are similar, and they aren't.  Not close.

 

Oh, and how did Bux get the concussion again?

[Doomtints]

Hey, I get it.  I was one of the people berating people for comparing Buxton to Trout in the beginning, saying that setting such a high bar for him was only going to slow down his development.

 

Note the term "slow down" and not "derail." He's still going to get there. And yeah, if this is your first time you have ever heard a Trout/Buxton comparison, you've been in a coma or something.....