Article: Seattle 12, Twins 3: Santiago Still Struggling, Dozier Still Slugging

[Tom Froemming]

Chris Gimenez pitched to Eduardo Escobar. That about says all you need to know about this game. Hector Santiago gave up a three-run homer before recording a single out. The sound of TV sets being turned off could be heard across all of Twins Territory. Those diehards who watched the rest of the game were "treated" to some more fireworks by the Seattle offense, as the Mariners continued to pound the Twins.Seattle 12, Twins 3

Box Score

 

Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs)

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Top 5 Plays (via Baseball-Reference)

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Santiago did not look right from the get-go. Below is a visual on how he fared against the first batter of the game (via Yahoo), the location is obviously an issue, but note the velocity, as well.

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Hector struggled to eclipse 90 mph early on, though he did appear to loosen up as the game progressed. (Data below from BrooksBaseball.net)

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Brian Dozier hit his ninth home run of the season on a prototypical Dozier homer. The pitch was left up and he pulled it right down the left field line. The Twins are now 4-4 when Dozier homers (he had a two-homer game), but oddly enough they're 12-2 when Miguel Sano goes deep. (data below from Yahoo)

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The new guys out in the bullpen had ugly games. Randy Rosario gave up five earned runs in 0.1 IP. His ERA is 30.86. Alex Wimmers managed to get five outs, but he also gave up a pair of runs.

 

Byron Buxton was 2-for-4 with a double and saw 19 pitches.

 

Highlights

 

Postgame With Molitor

 

Today

Adalberto Mejia (3.95 ERA) vs. Yovani Gallardo (6.24 ERA)

 

Mejia has been solid in three starts since returning from Rochester, lowering his ERA from 5.79 to 3.95 in the process. Current Twins have hit .359/.450/.516 off Gallardo over a combined 81 PAs.

 

AL Central Standings

1. Twins 29-25

2. Cleveland 29-27 (-1.0)

3. Detroit 28-29 (-2.5)

4. Chicago 25-31 (-5.0)

5. Kansas City 25-32 (-5.5)

 

Click here for the minor league report for Tuesday's games.

 

Click here to view the article

[Oldgoat_MN]

What is it that Gimenez throws?

Is that a knuckle curve or something? It looks so slow that maybe I could hit it.

Well, maybe could have hit it 40 years ago...

[Tom Froemming]

 

What is it that Gimenez throws?

Is that a knuckle curve or something? It looks so slow that maybe I could hit it.

Well, maybe could have hit it 40 years ago...

Not sure, but it looks like per Brooks Baseball his first pitch was 50 mph Maybe he was just trying to float the first one in there to make sure Escobar wasn't gonna have a heart attack.

[Brandon]

Santiago has really struggled since comming out of the pen and getting the loss a few weeks ago

[SirLoin]

There's no way Rosario doesn't get sent back down after that performance, right?

 

Or does he hold down a spot for low leverage situations until Hughes or Haley (gaah!) comes back?

[Dantes929]

Fans have ripped on the bullpen but to me the last 5 games have been a microcosm of the season.   We have been out scored 28-23 which means we are guaranteed losing one game and conceivably losing all 5.   Instead we have two blow out losses, one blow out win and two close wins.    3-2 record because we won all the games we had a realistic job of winning and lost two blow outs.   Bullpen did a great job in the close games and got destroyed in the losses.   Of course I would rather have tons of depth and quality in the bullpen and have them give us a chance to come back when the starters dig a big hole.   We are 29-25 when we should be 24-30 based on run differential.    ERA is high and depth isn't there but aside from the two games in a row last week the bullpen has been quite solid when it matters.  When it doesn't matter the runs have piled up.    I am fine if that trend continues.   

[Nick Nelson]

Great article format. Love this. Nice work Tom!

[Vanimal46]

In Phil Miller's write up, Santiago says he was aiming the ball trying to get strike 1 instead of pitching. I could believe that, as he was trying different arm slots and velocities to make something work last night.

 

Somehow the guy needs to reset his brain and get back to pitching like he was earlier in the season. Easier said than done when your confidence is shot, and you think every LH hitter is going to send your pitches to outer space.  

[Willihammer]

Remember when we wanted to extend Santiago?

[Taildragger8791]

Pretty remarkable that a team can be in first place 1/3rd of the way into a season while having one of the worst run differentials in the AL and posting 4 pitching appearances from a position player. How long can this really be sustainable?

[John Bonnes]

Tom, I want to marry this story.

 

(But I should probably check with Chrissie first.)

[Thrylos]

 

 

Dozier Still Slugging

 

with the bases empty.

2017 Dozier's splits:

with men on: .145/.258/.224, 1 HR (89 PA)

with bases empty: .290/.376/.527, 8 HRs (149 PA)

[bluechipper]

 

Pretty remarkable that a team can be in first place 1/3rd of the way into a season while having one of the worst run differentials in the AL and posting 4 pitching appearances from a position player. How long can this really be sustainable?

And the worst ERA in the AL. Lately, they either win, or they lose by 10 runs.

[PDX Twin]

I love the presence of a Twins' game write-up! That's the one thing that has been missing from TD and I hope it becomes a regular feature. When I can't watch a game I sometimes feel better informed about the minor league games than the majors, but a nice write-up of the Twins's game fills that void nicely!

[Tom Froemming]

 

Great article format. Love this. Nice work Tom!

 

Tom, I want to marry this story.

 

(But I should probably check with Chrissie first.)

thanks guys. I'm going to try to whip up something similar for every game. I'm obviously either crazy, a fool ... or a crazy fool. We'll see how it goes.

[Thrylos]

I think that we have seen enough of Santiago, Wimmers, and Rosario.  Santiago can be the long man and replaced in the rotation by Turley;  Melotakis can replace Rosario and Busenitz, Wimmers. 

[bluechipper]

 

There's no way Rosario doesn't get sent back down after that performance, right?

 

Or does he hold down a spot for low leverage situations until Hughes or Haley (gaah!) comes back?

I thought the same thing. The pen already has 4 lefties, and I'd like to see Busenitz, Hildenberger, or Curtiss get a shot.

[Danchat]

 

I think that we have seen enough of Santiago, Wimmers, and Rosario.  Santiago can be the long man and replaced in the rotation by Turley;  Melotakis can replace Rosario and Busenitz, Wimmers. 

I know Santiago's struggling, but we can't make him the long man - that should be Hughes' job when he gets back. Not to mention Gibson should be in AAA. There just aren't any other options to replace Santiago with (Turley is a AAA lifer, don't think he'd be an upgrade).

Edited June 7, 2017 by Danchat

[drivlikejehu]

I'd take Turley over Santiago without hesitation.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

thanks guys. I'm going to try to whip up something similar for every game. I'm obviously either crazy, a fool ... or a crazy fool. We'll see how it goes.

please do! Really enjoyed the article writing and the format

[Richie the Rally Goat]

What is it that Gimenez throws?

Is that a knuckle curve or something? It looks so slow that maybe I could hit it.

Well, maybe could have hit it 40 years ago...

under hand

[Dantes929]

 

Pretty remarkable that a team can be in first place 1/3rd of the way into a season while having one of the worst run differentials in the AL and posting 4 pitching appearances from a position player. How long can this really be sustainable?

Indefinitely.    If the run differential is created by the lopsided losses then the only performances that count are the starting pitching and and the relievers who come in when the game is close.   Right now we have three starters that have ERA's under 4 which has only happened once in the last 7 years.    Not coincidentally that year was 2015 when we had the winning record.     If the quality starts are spaced out in such a way that does not tax our depth then the only ERA's by relievers that matter are Kintzler, Duffey, Rogers, Boshers and Breslow.    Who cares if Rosario has a 30 ERA if it is created by giving up 5 runs when we are already down 6?     Of course, nothing is spaced out perfectly so it would be really nice to get another 2 relievers on whom we can rely but so far the quality starts have been matched up with the quality relief pretty well.     Dare we give Molitor some credit for that?    

[Dantes929]

 

I thought the same thing. The pen already has 4 lefties, and I'd like to see Busenitz, Hildenberger, or Curtiss get a shot.

I am against judging young guys by two appearances but it looks like a couple of guys are as deserving or more deserving of being given the chance anyway.   I wonder why Rosario leapfrogged the three you mentioned and maybe a couple others as well.

[Mr. Brooks]

If this is going to be a thing now - sign me up. This is awesome.

[Wookiee of the Year]

Love the format and the insights.

 

If you keep writing game recaps, I'll keep reading!

[bighat]

For those of us that constantly wonder why the Twins don't bring more "prospects" up to the bullpen, and instead opt for middle-of-the road veterans: now we know.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 

Is it my imagination or do the Twins pitchers have a much better track record with Castro behind the plate than Gimenez?  I couldn't find an ERA stat between the two but it just seems like that when Gimenez catches, the pitching staff struggles.

 

Not even close.  Twins' ERA by catcher:

 

Castro: 3.80 (327 IP)

Gimenez: 6.76 (157 IP)

 

#FreeMitchGarver

[Wookiee of the Year]

"The Twins are now 4-4 when Dozier homers (he had a two-homer game), but oddly enough they're 12-2 when Miguel Sano goes deep."

 

I'm sure some of this is noise, but some of it could also be line-up construction. Dozier's home runs have been worth on average 1.1 runs--all but one have been solo shots. (They're not all lead-off home runs, but when you follow the bottom of the order, you're less likely to have base runners aboard.) In contrast, Sano's home runs have been worth on average 1.7 runs.

 

Thrylos commented earlier showing Dozier's numbers are worse with men on than with the bases empty. If you think that's noise, you should move Dozier to a spot in the line-up where he'll get more opportunities to hit with men aboard. If you think he's just a worse hitter with men on, then I suppose you're best off leaving him in the lead-off spot.

[AJswarley]

For those of us that constantly wonder why the Twins don't bring more "prospects" up to the bullpen, and instead opt for middle-of-the road veterans: now we know.

Look at JT's numbers last year, or JJ last year. The young guys need some adjustment time. Give them time to settle down from the nerves of there call up.

[yarnivek1972]

For those of us that constantly wonder why the Twins don't bring more "prospects" up to the bullpen, and instead opt for middle-of-the road veterans: now we know.

The Twins have some prospects in AAA too. They may not have the pure stuff or even the ultimate ceiling of Rosario, but they are more polished and more likely to be able to help today.