Can you spot an early trend?

[twinssporto]

 

 

Santana pitched a great baseball game today!  I believe it marks the start of a real trend of winning for this team.  Let me explain:  Our offense is ranked 5th in the American League with 46 runs scored; and I don't even think we're hitting all that great right now.  We are ranked #2 pitching in the A.L. with a team ERA of 2.69.   Defensively, the Twins are ranked #3 with only 3 errors.  Our team also has a .636 win percentage on April 15th.  Short sample size?  Absolutely.  A trend in the right direction? Absolutely.  Worst to first this year?  I've seen it happen before.

 

I watch a lot of baseball, mostly the Minnesota Twins.  I have followed this team closely for over 30 years.  I'm not a bandwagon fan nor am I a hopeless optimistic.  However, based on what I am seeing now the similarities to some of our other high caliber teams in the past is intriguing.

 

Consider this:  Buxton WILL start hitting again.  Mauer will start hitting too. Berrios and Wimmers look like they have something to prove in AAA.  The bullpen looks motivated too.  Certainly the Manager has something to prove this year along with the new front office staff.  Whether your a pessimist or not; there are a lot of positives to consider.  

 

Will the Twins make the playoffs this year?  I don't know.  I will say this though:  I wouldn't bet against this team.  We have a lot of young players and decent veterans that aren't intimidated by early season predictions.  

 

Sometimes ignorance of your limitations and a little confidence is all you need to be the next great champion.  I love the youth on this team and the veterans around them.  Great team chemistry can do some amazing things in business, baseball and bands.

 

To all the folks out there that made their Las Vegas sports book bets on the Twins this year...hold on to those tickets!        

 

 

[Han Joelo]

Giddyup, even though I don't quite understand the graph.

[theBOMisthebomb]

All aboard!

[TheLeviathan]

I'm not convinced that Mauer is going to start hitting.  We may be seeing the end of Mauer as a functional offensive player.

 

Buxton?  I'm worried.  There are so many things wrong with his approach at the plate and that's so hard to fix at this level.  

 

But yeah, it's nice to see this team doing so many things well day to day.

[twinssporto]

 

Giddyup, even though I don't quite understand the graph.

The graph is just eye candy.  Tried to find something that looked better for baseball trends but nothing really existed.  

[Danchat]

I don't want to be Debbie Downer, but this team has been pretty healthy so far. Once the injuries hit, we'll see how this team responds. What happens if Sano misses a couple months and Escobar has to start there? What happens if E. Santana and Santiago go down with multi-week injuries at the same time? Who starts? It'll depend on situations like this.

 

Let's not forget the Vikings started out 5-0... and then the injuries hit.

[twinssporto]

 

I don't want to be Debbie Downer, but this team has been pretty healthy so far. Once the injuries hit, we'll see how this team responds. What happens if Sano misses a couple months and Escobar has to start there? What happens if E. Santana and Santiago go down with multi-week injuries at the same time? Who starts? It'll depend on situations like this.

 

Let's not forget the Vikings started out 5-0... and then the injuries hit.

Totally agree.  Things can always change.  The main point is we are going in the right direction.  I'd rather be in the spot we are now versus 0-9 and having injuries too.  We saw that last year.  

 

You also bring up a great point.  The championship level teams/playoff teams have very few injuries and if they suffer a few they have capable people to back them up.  I'd love to see if any Sabermetric types have done studies on injuries and winning percentages, etc.  I'm sure there a some good stats on that scenario.  As you said, Vikings are a good example.

[USAFChief]

The graph is just eye candy.  

 

You're doing it wrong.

[Badsmerf]

April is only half over... This team isn't built to win many games. Regardless of the nice start, it takes a lot to be over 500, and I just don't see it happening this year. There are certainly encouraging signs so far.

[USAFChief]

I felt coming out of spring training that there was a very good chance the Twins could be WC contenders this year. The pitching might need to overperform, but the everyday lineup is either good enough for that, or they might never be.

[ScrapTheNickname]

The Twins aren't hitting at all, yet they're 7-4. The pitching has been out of this world, and will come back to earth. Hopefully, the rise of our hitting will not coincide with the fall of our pitching. On another note, it's time to bring up Park or Vargas to ramp the offense up. Damn it.

[KirbyDome89]

They've played 11 games so far right? Ok...

 

I'm enjoying the start but talk about the WS or playoffs is getting a little carried away IMO. A record even close to .500 would be a major step for this team. 

[killertwinfan]

We are blessed with a good start, period.  This team could end up over .500 and even make the playoffs. Or,  things could go horribly wrong and they play like they did in 103 loss debacle we witnessed last year. I am thankful and purchased MLB extra innings so I can watch games.  Have fun with it while it lasts, (which is hopefully all season) but don't expect it.  The trends, great pitching, poor hitting (especially with RISP), great defense and a lot of gifts.  None of it will continue at the current pace. It will be interesting to see how the organization responds. 

[killertwinfan]

BTW, stick a fork in Mauer. He is done.  

[beckmt]

It is early, but defense has played a big role in this.  Also, the pitching is better, but making the plays may well have it looking better than it is.  I am hoping the team plays meaningful games in September, that will require saying around .500.  That could be realistic. 

Construction of this team is interesting.  It seems to be built more on onbase tendencies than anything else, and that seems to be working if the Twins can get a key hit or two.  There is hope, but I for one am more in a wait and see mode.

[Blake]

Reasons for optimism:

 

The outfield play has been stellar.

 

The infield has been solid with flashes of brilliance.

 

The bullpen has been solid.

 

Starting pitching has been solid.

 

There is triple A depth that has MLB experience.

 

It is not last year.

[amjgt]

Since most of the games have been during the work day, I haven't seen as many as I'd like, but here's my impression of the hitting...

 

We aren't hitting like we would expect, but the hits we are getting are bunched together with walks. So individual players are underachieving as a whole, but the team is overacheiving

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

BTW, stick a fork in Mauer. He is done.  

 

I think this only works coming from DaveW... speaking of which, I think he's due for this post

[Jham]

I didn't really get the doom and gloom either given that Buxton, Sano, and Kepler are entering their primes. The pitching staff was awful last year, but mostly good the year before with Berrios hanging out waiting to contribute.

 

I will say, Polanco and Sano look serviceable. That's usually not a fluke. The entire team looks more patient. I don't know is that's an emphasis with the new regime, but it looks good so far. The pen has looked good in the past, then been overworked. I'm not sure about bull pen depth and overall talent. If Chargios and Perk and Burdi and/or Jay can add something by mid summer, and Duffy can be dominant, we may have something.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I didn't really get the doom and gloom either given that Buxton, Sano, and Kepler are entering their primes. The pitching staff was awful last year, but mostly good the year before with Berrios hanging out waiting to contribute.

I will say, Polanco and Sano look serviceable. That's usually not a fluke. The entire team looks more patient. I don't know is that's an emphasis with the new regime, but it looks good so far. The pen has looked good in the past, then been overworked. I'm not sure about bull pen depth and overall talent. If Chargios and Perk and Burdi and/or Jay can add something by mid summer, and Duffy can be dominant, we may have something.

Not to mention Baxendale, Hildenberger and Busenitz, all of whom are sporting pretty good WHIPs. O'Rourke will be coming off the DL soon. I believe our pen is going experience some changes this year.
There is NO reason to keep under-performing veterans.

 

The team is doing well in spite of an odd roster configuration. I am really curious to see what they are going to do with the roster this season. Very strange.

[bird]

Despite the fact that not many of the actors have changed, this is a different team this year. In comparing the two teams, my perception is that there are several meaningful differences, and it's not too early to say they aren't fundamental in nature. Young players emerging, team defense, a stronger and deeper bullpen, a better hitting coach, an improved manager. BUT...the one area I'm skeptical about, where we may not be seeing a sustainable and fundamental upgrade in the works, is the rotation.

 

I'm a big Tom Kelly disciple that a team goes as their rotation goes. Last year I was pessimistic about them advancing further along because I felt they had a hodgepodge of mediocrity and no ace. We got awful instead of mediocre, and no ace. A true #1-2 guy impacts a team psychologically as well as by increasing the team's chances dramatically every fifth game. This year, other than Gibson, we have true mediocrity. What a relief, right? And of course Ervin is acting the part of a #1-2 starter. For now. If this keeps up, the wild card is not out of the question.  I'm not optimistic about this however. I expect to see a decline in performance from one or more, an injury to one or more, and I'm not as optimistic about getting mediocrity immediately from anyone in AAA, including Berrios. 

 

I see this team flirting with .500. I'll take it.

[Linus]

I'm of the opinion they just kept as many guys as they could to buy more time before making long term decisions. I have to admit that it might be the right strategy as I was all for sending Haley back to the Sox and he is giving a glimpse of competence.

[Han Joelo]

Maybe a defining characteristic of good teams is that everybody manages to not suck at once, unlike last year's total system failure.  

 

Hitting wise, despite the early offense, as some players cool off, other's have room to get hot.  I'm losing a bit of hope in Vargas or Park making a meaningful contribution, and am starting to see why they went after Napoli.  Still, there are viable options in those two, Garver, Granite, Goodrum maybe, and Gorgonzola.

 

Relief wise, Hildenberger, Burdi, and Melotakis are pitching well and can supplement later on.

 

Rotation...Berrios looks pretty good.

 

Anyway, we'll see.  Last years version looked like a bunch of losers, and these guys don't.  We'll see where that takes us.

[Vanimal46]

and Gorgonzola

I don't know, I'm pretty salty over Gorgonzola...

[USAFChief]

Maybe a defining characteristic of good teams is that everybody manages to not suck at once, unlike last year's total system failure.

 

 

I think there's a lot of truth in that.

 

I might say it's also a characteristic that good teams have multiple players good enough to get hot and make a huge difference for a week or two, while "sucking" for only short and infrequent periods.

 

One of the reasons I want another hitter in the lineup (Park and/or Vargas) and Grossman mostly in the OF is just that...one more guy theoretucally capable of periods of dominance, while removing a weak link.

[Physics Guy]

I am convinced it will come down to starting pitching. If this staff hovers anywhere near a 4.00 ERA I think they can be in the fight for a WC spot. Sano looks like he may fulfill the promise of his rookie season. Polanco is not looking overwhelmed at SS (I was doubtful). I haven't been able to watch much yet, but it seems like the OF pulls off a Web Gem on a daily basis. This beats the hell out of 0-9 to start the season.

[twinssporto]

 

I'm of the opinion they just kept as many guys as they could to buy more time before making long term decisions. I have to admit that it might be the right strategy as I was all for sending Haley back to the Sox and he is giving a glimpse of competence.

You may have a valid point here.  However, I'm not sure what long-term decisions need to be made for this team right now.  The ones that jump out are Dozier and Mauer.  After that it's who do you want to bring up from AA/AAA and draft choices.

[TKGuy]

I wanted to see at least competent baseball, and obviously meeting those goals. Attended 1st game of the year yesterday and obviously playing competently. If the Twins cannot stay in contention, Ervin may be the prize of the trade deadline, which bodes well for the future. If Mauer could pull the ball, he'd be a triples machine with the OF alignment. Sano has figured it out, he is a perennial AS in the making. I'd like to see us go back to a 12 man staff, we are barely using 2-3 pitchers a game, with Dozier being out yesterday, we had nothing on the bench.

[bluechipper]

 

The elephant in the room is Mauer. His start this year is a continuation of a bad second half (or really, bad second 2/3) of last season and a poor spring training. I've been a big fan for many years so it pains me to say this, but ..... it looks like the team would be better off with Park or Vargas playing IB every day, the other one playing part time as a DH and Joe either on the DH or shaking hands and selling tickets. It hurts but his decline is becoming painful to watch. I just hope I'm wrong. 

I think Joe should be playing most days against right handers. He's just gotten off to a bad start. A positive is only 3 strikeouts in 40 PA, but the outlier is that he's only walked 3 times too.

[Danchat]

 

Totally agree.  Things can always change.  The main point is we are going in the right direction.  I'd rather be in the spot we are now versus 0-9 and having injuries too.  We saw that last year.  

 

You also bring up a great point.  The championship level teams/playoff teams have very few injuries and if they suffer a few they have capable people to back them up.  I'd love to see if any Sabermetric types have done studies on injuries and winning percentages, etc.  I'm sure there a some good stats on that scenario.  As you said, Vikings are a good example.

Yup, now that I think about it, the Twins definitely lost multiple games because Jepsen was closing for an injured Perkins. They weren't prepared for that.

 

Some teams can overcome injuries and still excel - the Indians had 3 or 4 starters injured last year but they nearly won the World Series. The Super Bowl winning 2010 Packers had 17 players on the injured reserve and still were a great team [unfortunately].