Article: Dozier Trade Talk Heating Up?

[Doomtints]

 

Exactly.  When did Ryan ever do anything to put them over the top at the trade deadline?   I would never, ever, consider Ryan an all or nothing GM.

He was all or nothing in that if a move wasn't going to put them over the top, he did not bother to make the move unless his back was to the wall.

 

This means that the only moves he made over the past few years were to fill the gigantic holes.  There were no marginal moves made that could have pushed the team towards the middle.  

[Vanimal46]

My perspective on TR's All or Nothing mentality was he wanted ALL of Mike Pelfrey's years and sold him for NOTHING. 

[DJL44]

Kepler can play 1B too if they really need a 1B prospect.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I...uh...I don't think you're doing that right. 

There is also a 50/50 chance I will do a 180 on my position.

[Dave The Dastardly]

 

Rebuild your team around Dozier? He is signed for 2 more years....and he will be over 30.....

 

If you don't trade valuable pieces, you don't get value back.

 

As for the SPs in the minors, NONE look like legit number 2 types. How do you propose acquiring good/great pitchers, if you won't trade for them?

 

A)  Signed for two more years at a comparatively low salary is a plus, not a minus.

 

Age 30 is no longer the line in the sand it used to be. If it were, why do we have minor league players age 26? Even if we brought them up to the majors in 2017, they'd be toast in three years. Besides, wasn't the new brain trust hinting they wanted to acquire an older player to supply that intangible "leadership"?

 

C) If Dozier's value is predicated on him being able to help a play-off level team, why would that team give up a key player, or pitcher, (which is supposedly what we're after) to get him? Especially if pitching is king? Why cut their own throats?

 

D) What do the Twins have, 5 minor league teams? And none have a potential No. 2 pitcher on their roster? (I'm assuming that also means we don't have No 1's down there either.) Jeez! Clear the deadwood out before they turn 30 and draft nothing but pitchers. And get new scouts and new pitching coaches.

 

E) The current pitching staff woes on the major league team isn't the core issue, instead it's a symptom of an organizational problem. Trading Dozier for one or two more "prospects" is a short term "fix"that will not solve the organizational problem. If anything, our dysfunctional minor league system will screw up the pitching prospects while the major league team struggles to find an RBI guy to replace Dozier. Completely overhauling the minor league philosophy and its coaching staff as well as replacing the scouting department will prove more beneficial in the long run than a Dozier trade, so why spend precious time playing Let's Make A Deal? Forget it, and bring Dougie up to the major league club as bench coach/manager of the future.

 

There. That's my two cents worth, which adjusted for inflation is probably somewhere around $20 nowadays. Still not worth much.

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Kepler can play 1B too if they really need a 1B prospect.

 

True, but then who is in RF?

 

Really, I only want THAT 1B prospect because he's a great prospect. I think Sano is the 1B long term, if not some other stud.

[Thrylos]

 

True, but then who is in RF?

 

Palka

[Mike Sixel]

 

Palka

 

Wouldn't it make more sense for Palka to be at 1B, given their speed and arms?

[markos]

 

True, but then who is in RF?

Sounds like Adam Brett Walker is available again.

[Boom Boom]

Regarding Dozier, I have a hard time seeing the Twins pulling the trigger. TR is gone, but they are still bringing in the old timers in classic Twins fashion.

 

I think a Dozier extension is more likely than a trade.

[Thrylos]

 

Wouldn't it make more sense for Palka to be at 1B, given their speed and arms?

 

Speed is one thing, but Palka has a better arm.  He pitched also and use to throw in the low 90s.  They are both lefty throwers, so that is a wash.  Speed does not always translate to better defense, correct routes etc.  Palka is still learning the position and will be fine at RF.  Kepler at some point said that he preferred LF, not sure why... 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Speed is one thing, but Palka has a better arm.  He pitched also and use to throw in the low 90s.  They are both lefty throwers, so that is a wash.  Speed does not always translate to better defense, correct routes etc.  Palka is still learning the position and will be fine at RF.  Kepler at some point said that he preferred LF, not sure why... 

 

Huh, didn't know that about LF/RF.....up until I thought Sano was the long term 1B, I thought Kepler was...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Except this isn't a coin toss....some teams are more talented, and more likely to make it. I bet my odds are closer, actually. 

 

This isn't a random event....

 

You expect them to win in the mid-80s next year? What are the odds of that, given the last 5 years, and last year in particular?

Not a random event, nor do teams improve linearly from year to year, either.

 

There is too much talent now, with or without Dozier, to continue pushing expectations out into future years. Pitching has been poor in the second Ryan era, I get that. The 2001 team was 20 games over .500 at the All Star break. The talent came together and they were very young.

[nicksaviking]

 

Palka

 

There's also a glut on RF in the free agent market of all levels of skill. If a team was free agent shopping this year (not that the Twins are) corner bats are where the bargains are going to be.

 

With that said, if there is interest in Eddie Rosario and there's someone out there the front office likes, there's room for movement there too.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

I don't doubt that many people expect Dozier to be traded. I think it's more likely he stays. The Twin need a really good return for Dozier. I'm thinking two established MLB starting pitchers. That's what they need. But few teams - including the Dodgers - will be willing to give up two established SP for Dozier (and presumably Santiago).

 

It's just not likely to happen. The Twins don't need other position players; the free agent market is slim for pitching, so teams will not be willing to give up much in the way of good pitchers. 

 

The Twins could use prospects, yes. But you're talking about a 2B who hit 42 home runs last year. The Twins should not settle for prospects in return for Dozier. They need MLB starting pitching, But few teams, if any, will be willing to give up what the Twins want.

 

It's just not that difficult to find a 2B; it's more difficult to find starting pitching.

[Lonestar]

There's also a glut on RF in the free agent market of all levels of skill. If a team was free agent shopping this year (not that the Twins are) corner bats are where the bargains are going to be.

There is not a glut of RF's who can hit RHP's and LHP's well and field.

[mazeville]

 

I don't get all this excitement over the possibility of trading Dozier.  We (the Twins) finally get a genuine power hitter, after not having one for years, and the first thing we want to do is swap him for a pitching prospect? What? We don't have any pitching prospects in our minor league system? Oh, wait a minute, we supposedly have a half dozen or so exciting prospects already in the minors. If we want to believe the hype. And if we believe the hype, why do we want another prospect? Does that word "prospect" mean something different than what I think it means?

 

Trading Dozier reminds me of folks already in debt up to their elbows getting a new credit card; temporary euphoria because they can keep buying new stuff, but a long-term problem when they realize they gave away the farm for a cheap temporary thrill.

 

I noticed the author of this article termed the JJ Hardy trade as "regrettable". I think the Dozier trade, if it happens, will wind up with the same characterization when all the "experts" start complaining about the lack of power in the lineup.

 

The point is you can't build a winning team by exchanging one component for another. Especially when the newly acquired component may or may not pan out.

 

Unless our long term plan is to trade some of our pitching prospects for a power hitting prospect in a year or two (swapping out components again), I say keep a known quantity (Dozier) and build your new team around him. Otherwise you're merely playing whack-a-mole.

 

The Twins lost 103 games with that genuine power hitter. I'd much rather keep him, too. But I also want to win and know that it takes far more than a single power hitter to win. If they're going to get better, they have to take the tradable assets they have and convert them into additional players.

 

You're also forgetting that this team has Jorge Polanco ready to step in and be a solid, everyday player at second base. 

[Shaitan]

If trading for prospects they should take the best players available, regardless of position. They can worry about who to pencil into the 2019 MLB lineup in 2019 without worrying about the depth chart yet. Injuries and position changes will take care of that with time.

 

That said, they need MLB pitching. (Or MLB ready by mid-season.) 

 

(I'm also not a big fan of trading Dozier, but it all depends. I understand why it makes sense but that doesn't mean I have to like it.)

 

[nicksaviking]

 

There is not a glut of RF's who can hit RHP's and LHP's well and field.

 

It's not like the Twins have one of those now who would be kicked to the curb though. Maybe Kepler will hit lefties; he hasn't yet. Also perhaps I missed the premise, but I thought it was under the hypothetical that Kepler ended up playing 1B, so it's not like the team would be losing him. If Palka is the back up plan, again only for the hypothetical, a bargain free agent shouldn't stand in the way.

 

Bellinger does interest me and I like Kepler in the OF for what it's worth.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't doubt that many people expect Dozier to be traded. I think it's more likely he stays. The Twin need a really good return for Dozier. I'm thinking two established MLB starting pitchers. That's what they need. But few teams - including the Dodgers - will be willing to give up two established SP for Dozier (and presumably Santiago).

 

It's just not likely to happen. The Twins don't need other position players; the free agent market is slim for pitching, so teams will not be willing to give up much in the way of good pitchers. 

 

The Twins could use prospects, yes. But you're talking about a 2B who hit 42 home runs last year. The Twins should not settle for prospects in return for Dozier. They need MLB starting pitching, But few teams, if any, will be willing to give up what the Twins want.

 

It's just not that difficult to find a 2B; it's more difficult to find starting pitching.

 

No team is trading two good MLB starters for Dozier, or most anyone not named Trout or Bryant, or one of 2-5 others. 

 

If people won't trade Dozier for top SP prospects, they would never trade any veteran to get younger and more players. Which is fine.....just glad you aren't the GM.

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't doubt that many people expect Dozier to be traded. I think it's more likely he stays. The Twin need a really good return for Dozier. I'm thinking two established MLB starting pitchers. That's what they need. But few teams - including the Dodgers - will be willing to give up two established SP for Dozier (and presumably Santiago).

 

 

Established pitchers tend to be pretty close to free agency, I don't know that guys nearing the end of their contracts are a good fit for a rebuilding team. At least not good in terms of being a centerpiece of a deal for a prime trade chip.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

 

As for the SPs in the minors, NONE look like legit number 2 types. How do you propose acquiring good/great pitchers, if you won't trade for them?

 

TINSTAAPP, right?

 

I disagree with this statement just as much as I do with the poster you were responding to. We have upside in the minors with several guys that could fit that description. Gonsalves in particular definitely has legit number 2 potential.  The key is potential, the odds of him reaching it, as well as the time needed to get him there.... and with pitching prospects being as finicky as they are, you need a lot of them. The Twins don't have a lot of them, and some of the best ones are still two years away at minimum.

 

The problem the Twins have right now is that the hitting core is here now. Yeah, the lineup sans Dozier will be hurting, but expecting improvement from Sano, Buxton, Vargas, Rosario, Polanco, Murphy, and Kepler is not unreasonable, and there are backup options available in some cases as well.

 

 

[Platoon]

I don't get all this excitement over the possibility of trading Dozier. We (the Twins) finally get a genuine power hitter, after not having one for years, and the first thing we want to do is swap him for a pitching prospect? What? We don't have any pitching prospects in our minor league system? Oh, wait a minute, we supposedly have a half dozen or so exciting prospects already in the minors. If we want to believe the hype. And if we believe the hype, why do we want another prospect? Does that word "prospect" mean something different than what I think it means?

 

Trading Dozier reminds me of folks already in debt up to their elbows getting a new credit card; temporary euphoria because they can keep buying new stuff, but a long-term problem when they realize they gave away the farm for a cheap temporary thrill.

 

I noticed the author of this article termed the JJ Hardy trade as "regrettable". I think the Dozier trade, if it happens, will wind up with the same characterization when all the "experts" start complaining about the lack of power in the lineup.

 

The point is you can't build a winning team by exchanging one component for another. Especially when the newly acquired component may or may not pan out.

 

Unless our long term plan is to trade some of our pitching prospects for a power hitting prospect in a year or two (swapping out components again), I say keep a known quantity (Dozier) and build your new team around him. Otherwise you're merely playing whack-a-mole.

When I consider trading Dozier I take several things into consideration, and as one poster said, some irrational and likely baseless. Dozier has peaked and is going into his thrities. I personally have never considered him an actual power hitter, and I think that anyone who tried to use him in the middle of the order would find that out in a hurry. He would definitely get pitched differently. We needed the good Dozier twice in the last two years. The end of '15 to finish of the drive to the second WC, and the beginning of '16 to get off on the right foot. He was nowhere to be found. And lastly while Polanco will likely not hit the number of HR's, he will end up a better hitter overall, and no worse a second baseman. Plus it removes Polanco from SS, a position that the Twins really need to upgrade past his level. Edited November 28, 2016 by Platoon

[bcs4]

Quote:

""This is pretty wrong, in many levels, the least of it is that based on that logic, one could credit the "semi-success" of 2015 for a potential pennant in 2018.

 

Not really.  First, I used the word "could".  Second, conjecture is not logic, it's conjecture.  I've yet to see logic employed in any sports forum is reasoning.

 

Quote:

"Matter of fact, "unsuccessful" (in W-L) previous rebuilding seasons have more to do with winning a pennant, that half-mashed .500 mediocre seasons with mediocre veterans blocking rebuilds (ask the 1991 Twins, if you don't believe me.)"

 

Hardly.  For 2 reasons.  Show me a World Series winner that was coming off a sub 500 season, and I'll show you 10 that didn't.  But based on your example the Twins have an excellent chance of winning the World Series next year.

 

Quote:

"Twins do not have a single 1B prospect that is good. Not one that is as good as Bellinger both offensively and defensively. Having a group of guys that can only play 1B or Dh doesn't actually mean having quality prospects for 1B".

 

I'd say Vargas, Palka, Sano and Park are all good prospects.  Palka, Sano and Park all look to have similar HR and slug numbers though their BA appear to be 20 to 25 points lower.  I can't comment on fielding. as I haven't seen Bellinger play.  Regardless, I don't think that';s much of a basis for trading Dozier, especially if you're dropping a good 1B prospect to make room for Bellinger.

 

Quote:

"If people won't trade Dozier for top SP prospects, they would never trade any veteran to get younger and more players. Which is fine.....just glad you aren't the GM."

 

The goal isn't to get younger, it's to get better.  "Top pitching prospects" is a term that's used a lot.  Are you talking about pitchers like Berrios, May, or Meyers?  Maybe it would help if you could come up with some MLB ready prospects that you consider a top prospects.

 

Quote:

 "Dozier has peaked"

 

Based on?

 

Quote:

"We needed the good Dozier twice in the last two years. The end of '15 to finish of the drive to the second WC, and the beginning of '16 to get off on the right foot. He was nowhere to be found."

 

Well.. Dozier was perhaps the biggest reason that they were even in contention in '15.  If the begging of 2016 is your only other measure of value, there isn't one other member of the team that has any value.  Not one.

 

Quote:

 

"While Polanco will likely not hit the number of HR's, he will end up a better hitter overall...Plus it removes Polanco from SS, a position that the Twins really need to upgrade past his level"

 

Polanco is likely to have higher BA and OBP, but not likely anything else, so how will he be a better hitter?  As to your second point, Polanco at SS (if he plays at current levels) is a very small problem if all the other problems are considered.  3B, LF, RF, 1B, C, 4 RPs and 4 SPs are all bigger problems in my opinion.  The only players that I'm fairly confident to have good years are E Santana, Dozier, Buxton, and Chargois,  

 

Please forgive me for not using the quote feature here.  Win Twins

[tobi0040]

Dozier checks all the boxes for why you would trade a guy.

 

Bad team. A deep need at another position (pitching). Will be over 30 when we are good again. A replacement in the wings. And he would cost an absolute fortune at non peak years if we extended him.

[TheLeviathan]

 

 

 

The goal isn't to get younger, it's to get better.  "Top pitching prospects" is a term that's used a lot.  Are you talking about pitchers like Berrios, May, or Meyers?  Maybe it would help if you could come up with some MLB ready prospects that you consider a top prospects.

 

 

 

Based on?

 

Based on Dozier's age and his erratic production, his streak to end last year is probably peak.  

 

And you can't get better if you retain a 103 loss team and hope glue and bandaids fix the pitching.  This staff isn't getting better without outside acquisitions.  And to get something good, you have to trade something good.

 

We should be making high percentage plays to make ourselves better.  Trade Dozier for multiple players > keep Dozier and pray.  That's what it comes down to.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Please forgive me for not using the quote feature here.  Win Twins

I think the most you can quote is two.

[jimmer]

 

 

Quote:

"Twins do not have a single 1B prospect that is good. Not one that is as good as Bellinger both offensively and defensively. Having a group of guys that can only play 1B or Dh doesn't actually mean having quality prospects for 1B".

 

I'd say Vargas, Palka, Sano and Park are all good prospects.  Palka, Sano and Park all look to have similar HR and slug numbers though their BA appear to be 20 to 25 points lower.  I can't comment on fielding. as I haven't seen Bellinger play.  Regardless, I don't think that';s much of a basis for trading Dozier, especially if you're dropping a good 1B prospect to make room for Bellinger.

 

Vargas is 26, doesn't play good D,  had a horrible 2015, only had one good month this year (in 18 July games) and then reverted back to 2015.  I don't think much of him.

 

Palka is 25, a K machine, and doesn't get on base. I don't consider him any kind of prospect and he's certainly not a top 10 Twins prospect (and our farm system isn't exactly heavy in elite prospects).

 

Neither of the above are anywhere near 21 year old Cody Bellinger who just hit AAA..

 

I didn't consider Sano because he's not a 1B prospect.  He may end up there (more likely DH), but he hasn't yet.  Also, he's not a prospect anymore.  He lost his rookie status in 2015 and then spent the whole year in the majors this year. He's a major leaguer.

 

I never said we should target Bellinger.  I'd LIKE it if we could get him, but I'm all about getting pitching for Dozier.  And I've given what I thought was a realistic trade package from the Dodgers. Bellinger wasn't in it (nor was Alvarez)

Edited November 29, 2016 by jimmer

[bcs4]

 

Based on Dozier's age and his erratic production, his streak to end last year is probably peak.  

 

And you can't get better if you retain a 103 loss team and hope glue and bandaids fix the pitching.  This staff isn't getting better without outside acquisitions.  And to get something good, you have to trade something good.

 

We should be making high percentage plays to make ourselves better.  Trade Dozier for multiple players > keep Dozier and pray.  That's what it comes down to.

Runs, slug, RBI, and HRs are pretty much improving every year, while BA and OBP pretty much has remained the same.  If you mean erratic as in his stats are changing every year, then yes they ar,.  They're getting better.  I guess I'm just not understanding who these multiple players will be.  You do understand that the more prospects that we get for a player, the lower average quality they will be, right?  Maybe you could pick a team and make up a package that you think is a fair trade?

[jimmer]

Dozier has NOT been on a steady incline in offensive production.

 

Dozier's 2014 was better than his 2015 and then 2016 was easily his best season.  He's at his peak right now. 

 

The time is NOW to trade him.

Edited November 29, 2016 by jimmer