Article: Breaking Good: Positive Vibes At The All-Star Break

[ThejacKmp]

 

A good many will go? Has any team ever traded more than 2-3 veterans at this time of year? I don't know, but I doubt it has happened very often.

 

I think 2-3 would count as a good many. I kept it vague with "good many" for a reason! If you were to set an over/under I think it would be 2.5. I'd take the over in that case - I think at least three of Abad, Suzuki, Plouffe and Santana will be on another team come September 1st (and in that order for likelihood of being traded goes).

 

It's also hard to base "how many guys traded" on more than the past few years because the 5th wild card really changes things in favor of sellers. There are only 4 "clearly selling" teams in the AL and 7 in the NL (though a hot streak out the break from the Rockies could make that 6). Hopefully the Twins are active right out of the gate in the second half before some of the .500 teams can swoon and become sellers.

[bird]

 

re: Duffey

 

a. he still cannot get past the 6th inning

b. his "improvement" the last month is due to a .235 BABIP in that time.  His K/9 dropped to 6.9, however during that period; both facts are pretty bothersome.

c. but the most bothersome facts is that if you asked 20 people in the game, 18 (*) would tell you that they'd rather have May than Duffey (and his one pitch) in the rotation, because Duffey is better suited for the pen and can actually be pretty good there...  

 

(*) the other two are either working or rooting for the Twins

 

 

re: Duffey

 

a. He was lousy for a long while there. Now, when you look at his decent starts, he's giving us what we should expect from a decent start. I see IP's of 6,6,8,6.2, 7,7. I think it's fair to expect better than 6 innings most of the time, in other words. Duffey doesn't present us with a problem of running out of gas. He presented an even bigger problem though, and that was short starts when he was going bad. The point being made in here was that perhaps he's put those inconsistencies behind him.

[drivlikejehu]

The Twins have some fun players to watch, but they remain just as mismanaged as ever, certainly in the front office and too often on the field. Very concerned about their ability to navigate the trade deadline, handle young players, etc. 

[dxpavelka]

Nunez is still "a decent hitter with no real defensive position."  He's an all-star for the same reason he's our starting SS.  Somebody has to be.

[FormerMinnasotan]

Unless the Twins rid themselves of Tommy Milone and Rickey Nolasco and bring up Berrios things won't be better for the Twins. I do see the youngsters are really starting to contribute offensively, but until the weak links in the rotation are let go, it will be the same old in the second half of the season.

[DocBauer]

In regards to management sticking with the status quo if these young...and still getting younger...Twins have a quality 2nd half; I'm not convinced that would be the case.

 

For starters, this makes 5 90+ loss seasons out of 6 (probably). Further, management has already been on record saying they are taking a hard look at the organization from the FO on down.

 

Additionally, even a strong 2nf half can't erase such a poor and mismanaged 1st half. If anything, it might reflect just how poorly the initial roster construction really was.

 

I say enjoy the kids, enjoy Berrios, Chargois, Polanco and anyone else still to come up, and realize the dreaded "rebuild" that Ryan won't utter is actually taking place. We'll see how it all plays out.

[bluechipper]

 

Nunez is still "a decent hitter with no real defensive position."  He's an all-star for the same reason he's our starting SS.  Somebody has to be.

Eduardo Nunez has the same Fangraphs WAR as Edwin Encarnacion and Miguel Cabrera. He's an All Star because he's been really good.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I think the keeping Suzuki vs. trading him is a moot point since he has very little chance of vesting his 2017 option by getting 485 at bats.

Let's be clear on this: It's a team option that becomes guaranteed if he hits that PA total. The Twins have the choice of activating it if they please regardless of his playing time. 

[gocgo]

The Twins would be crazy not to trade Suzuki.  If they want him back next year, they will get him back as a starting catcher and pay him more than another team will pay for a backup.

 

The Twins would be crazy to trade Buxton.  We've just seen the tip of the iceberg on this kid and that kind of speed is game changing.  It allows your corners to play a step or two closer to the line and turn doubles into singles.  It's like having a SS with an extra step of range and a rocket for an arm.

 

I'm in favor of trading any pitcher north of 30.  Plouffe should be traded, but I don't see the market for him.  He's going to be tough to find a spot for especially if the young guys like Vargas continue to produce.

 

Dozier?  I have no confidence in the FO getting good value for him.  I'd keep him.

Edited July 11, 2016 by gocgo

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

Nunez is still "a decent hitter with no real defensive position."  He's an all-star for the same reason he's our starting SS.  Somebody has to be.

 

Harsh.

 

If a leadoff hitter posts a stat line of .321 AVG / 22 HR / 74 RBI / 41 SB (which is what Nunez is currently on pace for), I'd say most would call those "All-Star caliber" numbers.

[Craig Arko]

Harsh.

 

If a leadoff hitter posts a stat line of .321 AVG / 22 HR / 74 RBI / 41 SB (which is what Nunez is currently on pace for), I'd say most would call those "All-Star caliber" numbers.

If that line was for Hicks or Arcia I expect the HOF discussions would be in progress.

[birddog]

Great article. So nice to read something positive, which we can finally do since they have been "watchable" lately and maybe the future isn't still 3-5 years off. I agree with all of the positives, especially getting Sano back at third, Max showing power in left, and Berrios back up. I like Vargas' ABs so far, exhibiting patience yet turning on pitches he can hit. He seems to be a good clubhouse guy who keeps everyone loose. 

 

Palka is really producing now at AAA, with 23 HRs and 67 RBIs, and he's not even on the 40-man roster. I would really like to see what Polanco can do for an extended time with the big league club, but Dozier is playing so well I can wait. Let's pray these positive vibes last a lot longer. I haven't even thought about the Vikings for like two weeks.

[Loosey]

Another Positive is Buxton, up until his contusion, was starting to turn a corner.  The K rate was dropping, he was making solid contact more often and starting to drive the ball consistently. 

 

Positively dreaming of an outfield of Rosario/Grossman - Buxton - Kepler.

 

 

[jimmer]

Nunez is tied for 33rd in WAR for AL position players because defense counts too.  How many position players originally make an All Star team (before all the injuries start knocking them out)?  A player can be having a good season and still not be more worthy of an All Star spot than players who are more deserving that don't make it.

 

Examples:

 

Longoria.  Tied for 10th in WAR, not on the All Star team..

Kyle Seager. 14th in WAR, not on All Star team.

Kipnis (tied for 15th), Kinsler (tied for 15th), Correa (17th). Pedroia (18th). None on the All Star team.  

 

And if it's just about offense, Kinsler, Seager and Longoria (along with some other IFs not on the All Star team ) ahead of Nunez in wRC+.

Edited July 11, 2016 by jimmer

[Dr. Evil]

It has been fun to watch the Twins these past couple weeks. The young players are showing exciting things and vets are rebuilding trade value as hoped. I hope we take advantage of the increased trade value and don't fall for fools gold. One exception, I keep Irvin Santana. Without him we go way to thin on SP.

 

I keep playing Vargas at first and place Mauer on the bench.

[tobi0040]

I didn't realize the Twins had a true option in Kurt. 1 and 6? That is what we are going to do. I would wager on that

[Halsey Hall]

Some debby downers always have to complain about something, and now someone is complaining that we beat the Rangers 3 of 4 because their staff is lousy.  Well, for the last several years it seemed like every time we faced some not so hot pitcher we made him look like Cy Young. What's next?

[drivlikejehu]

 

Some debby downers always have to complain about something, and now someone is complaining that we beat the Rangers 3 of 4 because their staff is lousy.  Well, for the last several years it seemed like every time we faced some not so hot pitcher we made him look like Cy Young. What's next?

 

I know, right. How could anyone be down on this team? Whether it's this year, or going back to 2011, it's getting ridiculous how fans are nitpicking the team's performance. 

[ferg8791]

_{Trade Buxton? Sorry but I have to laugh. Does it get any more myopic than that.(rhetorical)}

[glunn]

Moderator note -- please keep this thread respectful of other posters.

[Ncgo4]

My biggest fears are that with typical Twin's luck we will play just well enough to move from the #1 pick to #6 or worse. This will also give the F O the ability to tell owners that it's finally coming together so let's not change now.

 

If we know one thing it's the fact that these owners like nothing more than not making decisions. The recent $30 million (approximate) gift for selling 35 % of MLB,com to Disney, has to have them thinking life is good, why would we screw with anything? Let's face it, those, generations of owners' down stream relatives are being fully vested by the Twin's cash cow.

[Sd twins fan]

first time poster: been following along time.

 

 

Why trade dozier we know what he is about. He will bat 250-270 and hit 15-25 homers a year and play solid defense.

 

Polanco is unknown. The best case scenario which is playing out is we are out of it September 1st, we bring polanco up and he plays 5 out of 7 days between short and 2nd.

 

The front office was blasted for trading revere and span known commodities and giving hicks the starting job. Now everyone wants to do that again with polanco?

 

How many 2nd baseman would you rather have than dozier? I can think of one really when you factor in salary and age and that is kipnis.

[Major League Ready]

 

If that line was for Hicks or Arcia I expect the HOF discussions would be in progress.

or a nomination for President of the United States

[Major League Ready]

 

first time poster: been following along time.


Why trade dozier we know what he is about. He will bat 250-270 and hit 15-25 homers a year and play solid defense.

Polanco is unknown. The best case scenario which is playing out is we are out of it September 1st, we bring polanco up and he plays 5 out of 7 days between short and 2nd.

The front office was blasted for trading revere and span known commodities and giving hicks the starting job. Now everyone wants to do that again with polanco?

How many 2nd baseman would you rather have than dozier? I can think of one really when you factor in salary and age and that is kipnis.

Carpenter and Altuve by a considerable margin but your point is still valid and Carpenter is playing 3B now but could play 2B.  Regardless,  I have not seen anyone suggest Polanco is clearly a better option.  However, provided the right return, trading Dozier could be an important part of building contender.  Trading a very good players was instrumental to the rebuilding process for the Royals, Cubs, Mets, Pirates, Orioles, Astros, and probably a could others I cant think of right now.  

 

I would prefer to trade Nunez and use Polanco in his role but the return wont be an impact player unless we get very lucky.  

Edited July 12, 2016 by Major Leauge Ready

[dxpavelka]

 

Harsh.

 

If a leadoff hitter posts a stat line of .321 AVG / 22 HR / 74 RBI / 41 SB (which is what Nunez is currently on pace for), I'd say most would call those "All-Star caliber" numbers.

IF.  Until IF becomes reality its just IF.  Just for fun and games I urge you to check out Brian Dozier's post 2015 All-Star Game stat line.  Or, for even more fun, check out Bryan LaHair's (yeah, I know) post  2012 All-Star Game CAREER.  None of which takes away from the fact that Nunez is still a marginal defensive player at best and that if he's still our starting SS 2 years from now we'll be well on our way to another 90 loss season.

[wsnydes]

 

first time poster: been following along time.


Why trade dozier we know what he is about. He will bat 250-270 and hit 15-25 homers a year and play solid defense.

Polanco is unknown. The best case scenario which is playing out is we are out of it September 1st, we bring polanco up and he plays 5 out of 7 days between short and 2nd.

The front office was blasted for trading revere and span known commodities and giving hicks the starting job. Now everyone wants to do that again with polanco?

How many 2nd baseman would you rather have than dozier? I can think of one really when you factor in salary and age and that is kipnis.

I think most that want Dozier traded would like to see it for reasons that aren't knocking Dozier at all, myself included.  The very reasons you state are what makes him valuable on the trade market.  He could bring a decent to nice return, which would help rebuild this team faster.  There also happens to be a top prospect in waiting that the organization has pegged at 2B.  Those are the same reasons that Span and Revere were traded, it just didn't work out with Hicks.  The returns on those deals is still up for debate as well.  IMO, those deals were good at the time and either still are or can be.

 

The other factor in this is that the team has squandered Polanco's options.  They don't know what he can do at the major league level.  This scenario has shades of Arcia, which a great many posters don't want to see repeated, again myself included.  

 

In order for a team in the situation the Twins are in, trading valuable veterans to bring in young talent and free up space for their in-house prospects is what needs to be done in order to revitalize things.  I'm of the opinion that Dozier won't be a primary piece when this team becomes a legitimate competitor again, so why not use him to better the franchise now and in the future?

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

IF.  Until IF becomes reality its just IF.  Just for fun and games I urge you to check out Brian Dozier's post 2015 All-Star Game stat line.  Or, for even more fun, check out Bryan LaHair's (yeah, I know) post  2012 All-Star Game CAREER.  None of which takes away from the fact that Nunez is still a marginal defensive player at best and that if he's still our starting SS 2 years from now we'll be well on our way to another 90 loss season.

 

The point is that Nunez's 1st half numbers are All-Star caliber. I merely cited his projected full-season stats to better illuminate just how good his current numbers are. As for Nunez being the catalyst for future 90-loss seasons, I'm just simply going to strongly disagree and leave it at that.

[South Dakota Tom]

Echoing many of the sentiments.   This season will be a success if we realign the roster to place players in their optimal positions, and construct a lineup that has youth, speed, depth and a future.

 

There are (again, as pointed out in various posts) a handful of moves that will straighten this out.    1) trade Suzuki, bring up Murphy; we will have 3 catchers on our 40-man next year with Turner and Garver regardless of what happens with Centeno; no room for 5 and no room for an aging, nice, weak-framer who can't throw anyone out in the team of the future;   2) Infield should consist of Mauer, Escobar, Sano, Polanco, and either Santana or Beresford as 5th, which means trading Nunez, Plouffe and Dozier;   3) Outfield is Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, with Grossman.  Bench, 2nd catcher, Santana/Beresford, Palka/ABW, Vargas/Park.    3) Starting pitching, I think we keep Gibson (hard to find another with a brighter future for more cost control), Santana, Duffey, and utilize Berrios and May; means jettisoning Nolasco and Milone, with Hughes as long-relief, 6th starter, potential of Jay, Meyer, and others.   The hope is that the trade of Plouffe, Dozier, Nunez, Nolasco, Milone, Suzuki frees up enough money to sign a frontline young starter. as most should be traded for high-upside low minors prospects who don't need a 40-man spot in the next year.    4) Bullpen is fungible; trade Abad, dump Ramirez, keep the rest, with a long dash of Chargois, Wimmers, plus the existing Kintzler, Pressley, Rogers, Tonkin, and the notion of Hughes, Perkins, Dean, and others on the horizon, along with a handful of other rising arms or free agent acquisitions.

 

This backs us up in every position, all with young speed, puts everyone in their natural positions, and makes this a team worth watching the rest of this year and all of next, with a decreased payroll even after signing a top-of-the-order guy.

[twinsnorth49]

I think it's ok to have positive vibes about the team, it's also ok not to have very positive vibes about it. 

 

Both are possible I believe.

 

No?

[TheLeviathan]

It's been fun playing Texas, I'd like to see the positives continue a bit longer before we buy in too much, but it's been a nice small sample.  

 

Grossman, Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler is a nice foursome but we really need Buxton to take the next step. 

 

Vargas has looked legit since coming back, his approach at the plate has been wonderful to see.  He looks like a totally different guy up there.  (Other than, along with Sano, looking more like a WWE tag team than baseball players)

 

I'd really like to see Polanco get some playing time the rest of the season.  Fit him in somehow.