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10-3

DaveW

By DaveW
in Minnesota Twins Talk

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DaveW All-Star

DaveW

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

13 games left. 10-3 gets them in the playoffs IMO. 9-4, gives them a 50/50 shot IMO

 

Can they do it?

Hrbowski Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

Hrbowski

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

13 games left. 10-3 gets them in the playoffs IMO. 9-4, gives them a 50/50 shot IMO

Can they do it?

Only if every single player steps up, including Big Pelf and Milone.

ashbury GOAT

ashbury

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Only if every single player steps up, including Big Pelf and Milone.

Logic says no, but this is when myths and legends of the game are created. The prize is right there in front of them - and despite recent misfires, it's there for the taking. One game at a time. Why not them?

ashbury GOAT

ashbury

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Short answer: no. Long answer: no.

http://media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/ab/49/c1/ab49c10d3e2870dfcad351b429c9daa8.jpg

 

Disturbing, your lack of faith, I find.

DaveW All-Star

DaveW

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted

They came back from 3 down with 4 to play (in a classic prediction from myself at BYTO where statfreak said he would leave forever if the Twins pulled it off)

 

They are still very much "in it", by Thursday morning they could find themselves a game out or even better.

DaveW All-Star

DaveW

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted

Yes, they can do it. It's going to take 8-5 minimum though. Letting the Angels into it by going 1-3 this weekend hasn't helped.

IMO the only way 8-5 gets it done is if 5 of those wins are against the Indians, and then the Astros would have to collapse (and LAA would have to go 7-6 as well)
spinowner Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

spinowner

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

Right now Houston is the team we need to catch. If they finish the season 6-6 the Twins need to go 9-4 to tie.

I'll disagree a bit with Physics Guy. It could hurt that those three teams play each other. If those games get split about evenly among the three teams it will be more difficult for the Twins to finish ahead of or tied with two of them. Probably the most favorable scenario would be for Texas to sweep the other two and for the Angels to sweep Houston.

Meanwhile, the Twins have 7 games remaining against Cleveland. Going 9-4 with no losses to Cleveland would be good. Going 9-4 with 4 losses to Cleveland gives Cleveland the opportunity to stay in the race.

For all the teams still involved it's not just how many of the remaining games they win, it's also which games they win.

Physics Guy First Round Pick

Physics Guy

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

I agree that somebody wins when they play each other, but it also insures that somebody loses when they play each other.  That's OK when LAA and Hou play.  We clearly need Texas to do some damage.  8-5 might get it done.  Most likely we have to win every series remaining (9-4).  Unfortunately, that still requires Hou to finish 5-7.

nicksaviking MVP

nicksaviking

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

Gut tells me no, but I'm also guessing after their recent slide, most Astros fans aren't feeling too comfortable either.

 

I'm inclined to say 10% chance, though that doesn't feel right because if the Twins sweep Cleveland and LA takes 2 of 3 from Houston, it would seem more like 50/50 and neither of those outcomes seems that far fetched.

Dantes929 FCL Twins

Dantes929

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

 

 

IMO the only way 8-5 gets it done is if 5 of those wins are against the Indians, and then the Astros would have to collapse (and LAA would have to go 7-6 as well)

Not sure why 5 of the wins have to come from the Indians.   If they only won 3 they would still be ahead of the Indians and it would mean they go 5-1 in their other games while the Indians would have to sweep their other games.   If the Twins go 8-5  Angels would have to go 8-5 to keep pace and the Astros would have to go 5-7.   I would bank 8-5 right now as long as at least 3 come against the Indians.     The odds on that scenario are not good but not horrible even given the position they are in and probably the most likely thing to happen for them to make the playoffs all things considered.  .      Its like the old Steve Martin bit.   How do you make a million dollars and not pay taxes?  Well, first make a million dollars.     How do the Twins go 8-5 and make the playoffs?   First go 8-5.      I can even see 7-6 doing the trick though maybe then it would be akin to Halsey Hall going 2 under assuming he is a 4 handicap golfer.  .  I remember in 2006 everyone saying the Twins absolutely had to sweep their last series to even have a remote chance at the division title because the Tigers were playing 100 loss KC at home.   Twins went 1-2 and the Tigers got swept.     Anything that happens for the Twins to make the playoffs this year is probably more likely than what happened that year. 

 

 

Dantes929 FCL Twins

Dantes929

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

Gut tells me no, but I'm also guessing after their recent slide, most Astros fans aren't feeling too comfortable either.

 

I'm inclined to say 10% chance, though that doesn't feel right because if the Twins sweep Cleveland and LA takes 2 of 3 from Houston, it would seem more like 50/50 and neither of those outcomes seems that far fetched.

I gave them 10% chance at the start of the year.    Their odds from this point seem to be at least twice that.   Baseball prospectus doesn't agree with either of us.    They are currently at 5.5% with Cleveland, Angels and Astros ahead of us.   Surprising that the Indians are better odds when they are still behind us.    Doesn't really bother me since a week ago the Twins were at 33%.   It just shows what a week can do to the odds.    I think if they knew the Twins would go 8-5 their odds would go up to about 35%.   Like I said I would bank 8-5 right now if I could.

nicksaviking MVP

nicksaviking

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

Just throwing it out there, but the Astros currently have a .527 winning percentage. 
Assuming they stick to their current winning percentage, they should go either 6-6 or 7-5, meaning the Twins would have to go 9-4 or 10-3 to tie.

 

I'm of the mind that the Astros continue to slide.  I don't think the Angels do though.

 

I sure wish today wasn't the last off day of the season for the team though.

Kwak First Round Pick

Kwak

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

It will all be clear Friday AM.  The Houston/Angels series is a negative for the Twins--but that can't be avoided--division opponents face each other many times.  A sweep by either team is problematic for MN, if by Houston they retain (or build!) a noticeable lead,  if Anaheim, they stay relevant and keep their mojo, while perhaps pulling ahead of the Twins.  Overcoming multiple teams is more difficult than only one.  Wins against Cleveland are worth double this week.  If Cleveland (who aren't dead yet) win, they stay relevant and will be tough through in Cleveland.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

I would not like my odds in Vegas at this point.......5-10% chance is about what I'd need to place a bet, and even then it would be a small one. Too bad, for a few weeks this pretty good season will feel disappointing, and it shouldn't.....

spanman2 Draft Eligible

spanman2

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

A great opportunity to play +.700 ball and see where it takes us. I am in agreement on 10 wins needed to get it done. It is unfortunate that we went 1-3 against Anaheim. The opposite was needed but it is what it is. Certainly has been an interesting year. My guess is that if at the beginning of the year you did the "what if" scenario the majority of us would have said "I will take it" being 2.5 back with this many games left. As is the case with baseball you just never know. GO TWINS!

stringer bell Cooperstown

stringer bell

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

Right now Houston is the team we need to catch. If they finish the season 6-6 the Twins need to go 9-4 to tie.

I'll disagree a bit with Physics Guy. It could hurt that those three teams play each other. If those games get split about evenly among the three teams it will be more difficult for the Twins to finish ahead of or tied with two of them. Probably the most favorable scenario would be for Texas to sweep the other two and for the Angels to sweep Houston.

Meanwhile, the Twins have 7 games remaining against Cleveland. Going 9-4 with no losses to Cleveland would be good. Going 9-4 with 4 losses to Cleveland gives Cleveland the opportunity to stay in the race.

For all the teams still involved it's not just how many of the remaining games they win, it's also which games they win.

If the Twins go 3-4 with Cleveland, and finish 9-4 overall, Cleveland would have to win every game in the other two series they play just to tie. Of course, if the Twins win 4 of 7 vs. the Tribe, and still win 9 total, Cleveland is done. I think the Twins will be lucky to win 7 of the 13, but I thought they were primed for an 8-2 homestand and the wildcard lead.

Halsey Hall FCL Twins

Halsey Hall

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

Have you ever? I'm going out right now with the mindset that I'll be successful if I break 90.

Nope.  Did shoot par once this year.  Played a 4 man scramble on saturday and our team was 18 under and won by a stroke!  Parred the first hole and then 16 birdies and an eagle.  Usually 3 poor shots and one good one, and each team got 4' of tape to use to measure to the hole, so if you leave a putt 3 inches short, you use up 3" of tape.  It was a blast!

DaveW All-Star

DaveW

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted

WIth the Astros win, at the Twins upcoming schedule, I think they need a sweep to stick in this one against Cleveland.  Hopefully Angels can take one of the last two games against Houston and the Twins can get it back to 1.5 games back heading into the weekend.

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