Does everyone think the Twins are going about this right?

[Twodogs]

This is going to be a long diatribe about what, in my opionion is the best way to re-build (in this day and age of Major League Baseball).  So what I have observed so far is that the Twins are trying to buy a rotation and develop young power hitting position players to go with the pitchers that they are trying to buy.  ie Sano, Arcia, Vargas, etc...  Pitchers that they have bought are Hughes, Nolasco, Santana, and to a lesser extent Pelfrey.  Now I also have had my mouth water when I hear about all of these pitching signings and think wow this is the first time in Twins history that they have thrown good money at pitching.  All those years in the early to late 2000's that's all most of us feel that they needed to do to push them over the top.  Instead we got guys like Rick Reed, Joe Mays, Scott Baker, etc...  you name them they were all the same if their name was not Santana.  But, in today's Major League Baseball, is this the right thing to do?? 

 

Over the last couple of years there have been so many pitching injuries that you usually don't know who's coming and who's going.  In fact I kind of feel that may have been part of Nolasco's problem last year, he was probably somewhat injured and tried to pitch through it and it did not work for him too well.  So it is pretty well established that starting pitching no matter how good they are is a real crap shoot with all of the arm problems these days, Unless you get Clayton Kershaw you are gambling big time, Hughes, even though he is a man's man and pitched like a stud last year was still just another gamble, it just worked out, we hit 21 with him and busted with a 22 with Nolasco.  So my first question is; is throwing a bunch of money at pitchers now a days the best thing to do??  Remember, these guys are the biggest gamble that a baseball team can take.  Plus it is a costly gamble that may not net any results for many years, look at Pelfrey for example.  

 

Next, the Twins are trying to develop big bruising power hitters, such as Arcia, Sano, Vargas, Pinto, etc...  and the overall power numbers in Major League Baseball are way way down, way down over the last 3 - 4 years or so.  Batting averages are way down.  Plus the Twins don't play in Texas or Boston or anywhere else where the ball flys out very easily.  They play in spacious Target field where 350 foot shots get caught, but in Boston those would be big flies, bombs, dingers, but not at Target field.  I mean I really hope these guys work out, I loved watching Gaetti, Hrbek, Puckett, Brunansky, Chilli Davis, Baylor, hit tons of dingers in the 80's and early 90's.  I also loved watching Morneau, Hunter, Cuddyer, Mauer, and guys like that mash the ball in the early 2000's too.  All in the Metrodome however.  But I'm more worried that I am going to see a bunch of .240 hitters hitting 15 bombs a year while we think that they will eventually develop, which they probably will, once they move to Cincinatti or Boston or someplace like that, that is my fear.  

 

So far my points in short are the Twins are throwing a bunch of money at thing with no guarantee, Starting Pitching.

 

While they sit around and try to develop things that usually are a little more stable such as hitting, speed, defense, things like that.  Now I know I just bashed hitting, but usually if you have a good hitter, Mike Trout, Adrian Beltre, etc... they usually do well hitting, they have slumps, they have ups and downs, but if over time a guy proves that he can hit or run, they usually do so for awhile.  It seems less likely that once a guy proves that he has trouble hitting that they can turn it around, for example Aaron Hicks, he has proven over a couple of years that he struggles hitting, it's very highly unlikely that he will be an All Star someday because of his hitting, granted there are cases such as Gomez, but usually they don't turn around like that. 

 

So as I sit here I try to put myself in Billy Beane's chair and if I were to re-build the Twins how would I go about it Money Ball wise??  You know, my own little money ball, they wont make movies about it, it's just what I think might work, in my own head.

 

Why spend so much money on things that have no guarantee???

Why not spend money on things that have some guarantee??

 

The type of team, in my opionion that would be extreemly successful for a long period of time during this new deadball era would be a carbon copy of the early 80's St. Louis Cardinals.  Speed and Defense.  St. Louis beat the Milwaukee Brewers in 1981 WS and St. Louis only hit 67 dingers for the entire season.  But they had things that did not slump.  Speed, defense.  Outfield, Coleman, McGee, L. Smith, infiled. Ozzie Smith, Herr, Hernandez, Pendalton.  Right now, with so many teams looking to develop hitting Catchers and not defensive ones, a team like that would run roughshod over the league, remember back then it was almost acceptable to have a poor hitting catcher if he could keep guys like Coleman, Henderson, Raines at first base.  Today, not so much. 

 

So my opinon would be to spend money on guys that can get on base at a high clip, similar to Beane's Money ball.  But not slow guys, guys that can put pressure on the defense by running.  Why not spend a little money on a couple of postition players that have proven themselves over the years.  Then spend each draft and draft pitching and more pitching, and more pitching.  Pick up some rule 5 guys that can pitch and so on.  Then bring these guys up when they are ready, and once they are ready for a big contract trade them, let em go and bring up the next guys because pitchers are more likely to get hurt anyway, might as well keep the young arms coming.  Occasionally you will find one of those diamonds like a Pedro Martinez or a Kershaw and you keep that guy, but everyone else is gone once their time is up.  Build a team around young strong arms and reliable position players with speed.  I mean as bad as the hitting was across baseball last year, most guys should be able to pitch reasonably well.  Realistically the first team to do something different wins the race for a few years untill everyone else catches up.  Most things are trends, I feel that the Twins right now are building their team based on the last trend that happened not trying to figure out what could be next? 

 

Last question, I loved Phil Hughes season last year, but the Twins had him locked up pretty cheap for the next few years, why spend a bunch more money on him? Now it is as if they cant afford a good CF?

 

Tear away at this if you must, just what I've been thinking that might make the Twins a dynasty instead of a one year wonder or worse yet, always getting to the dinner table last.

[DuluthFan]

The Twins spent money on the position that they could not fill internally, starting pitching. That is exactly how you should use free agency, by filling positions that you cannot fill with your farm system. While arguments could be made about the prospects almost here, you have to take a look at the track record of pitching prospects and the Twins prospects specifically. They seldom work out. Yes, using your own farm system to fill major league positions is preferable to spending lots of money on free agents, but at some point the positions need to be filled by competent players who can play at that level. The Twins have had a hard time providing them.

 

As far as the position players go, other than the shortstop position, the Twins have had good luck finding players to both field and hit. They are not just focused on finding power hitters. That may be the media and sites like this focusing on the power guys. When the Twins were winning division titles, they were winning with non power players. Punto and Span come to mind. They were succeeding despite the lack of power.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The Twins didn't really have a choice in buying on SP.  Their system was pretty bereft of SP talent for the last few years as only Gibson has turned into something.  They have some higher ceiling talent at the lower levels and now have some decent talent moving into the upper levels, but it takes 5 starters and as is true with pitching prospects, many never make it.  They had to buy SP.  I tend to think it would have been better served to go out and get the top one (say Anibel Sanchez or Max Scherzer), but when you need to get several starters, going out and getting guys like Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana make sense given that they just didn't need one guy, they needed a rotation.  This was probably the best means to get one.

 

I personally tend to think that stolen bases are overrated, though going from 1st to 3rd or even 1st/2nd to home on a base hit is valuable.  You are accurate in going for high OBP guys, but truthfully, that can be taught to some extent.   Both Vargas and Sano have done a pretty decent job of that in the minors.  Arcia, while needing some work there, was not terrible either.   

[JB_Iowa]

The Twins are under some pressure - financial and other - to have a winning team sooner rather than later.  Not necessarily a playoff team but one that is a significant step above the embarassments of the last few years,

 

In order to do that, TR had to upgrade the rotation.

[brvama]

Building a team is not as easy as getting your fantasy league team together. TR and the Twins have to deal with the cards they had. (How they get there is another story.) As has been stated, the rotation stunk and needed to be upgraded. That was the biggest weakness and was and should have been the top priority.

 

You lament that they are spending money on questionable returns, yet you advocate drafting and drafting pitchers to use as your staff. First that is what they have been doing. Second, that takes time for results at the MLB level.

 

And third, untested young pitchers are more of a gamble than veterans. There is nothing guaranteed in baseball other than the ball being round and the bases are 90 ft apart. To ignore the spending for FA pitchers counters your goal of finding some guarantee.

 

As far as hitting is concerned, your argument hints at the premise that offense is down b/c of incapable hitters. I would venture this is the result of the cycle towards better pitching. And I believe baseball, as with life, goes in cycles.

 

Right now those close to the Twins seem to have power, something that has been miss for a couple of decades IMO. But there are the OBP guys here or near also. A smattering of both power and OBP hitters create a lethal lineup. Each feeds on each other.

 

Finally, it has been proven over and over In MLB history that pitching wins more than hitting. So that is where they should start and keep funding, IMHO.

[Twodogs]

I see what you guys are saying, and I also have been feeling that way, I've been very excited to see all of the SP signings.  It was just a couple of days ago when I started to think about baseball trends, it always seems that there are a few teams out there that lead a new trend in baseball, ie OBP (Oakland 2000's) Speed (St. Louis early 80's) Power (Twins late 80's) and then everyone else follows suit.  Now I was looking at offense over the last few years and see the huge dip in offensive numbers overall in baseball which means pitching overall is going to rebound which means an average pitcher should be ok if the offensive numbers keep going in the southerly direction.  I also see that SB's are somewhat of an overated statistic, but you cant tell me that when Ricky Henderson was on first that the pitcher didn't have a lot more on his mind than how he was going to pitch the next hitter, it put pressure on the pitcher and the defense to contain him. Last, the Twins have spent a lot of money to improve the rotation because in house options are not there, but how much have they spent?  How much have they really improved?  Hughes met way higher than expectations, but what was Hughes average year before last year?  Was last year an abnormality?  How much money have they spent on Pelfrey over the last 3 years?  How many wins has it netted them?  How much money did they spend on Nolasco? How did that turn out for them?  Now they have spent a lot of money on Santana and is he really any better than just an average MLB pitcher?  again I would love to see Nolasco Hughes and Santana make the All Star team, but most likely they wont.  So how much better do they make the Twins?  Yes the Twins do not have enough pitching coming out of their system to be competitive right now, but that is why I suggested that they focus their drafts from now on, on pitching, provide those pitchers 5 - 6 years from now with speed and defense and high OBP.  St. Louis proved you don't need a lot of power to win and win a lot.  Ask Paul Molitor who's team lost to St. Louis that was focused on speed and defense with starters like Jim Kaat, not exactly a Nolan Ryan type, but pretty damn good pitcher in his own right.

 

I hope the current Twins work out, I hope Vargas, and Arcia hit 30 Hrs and knock in 100 rbi's each.  I hope Nolasco returns to form from the last 6-7 years and I hope Hughes does not.  I hope Santana can win 15 games and put up a 3.50 era to go with Gibson and Milone or whoever else takes that 5th spot and I hope the Twins can win 90 and contend for the Central divison.  I'm just looking also at what could be done differently that I don't think many teams are attempting right now.

[stringer bell]

The spending on starters is surprising and impressive and demonstrated how few options were available in-house.  The strategy is also risky.  There are no guarantees that anyone from the staff will that good.  There is a large commitment in both dollars and years to guys who didn't profile to be potential All-Stars when they were acquired. 

 

One could also say that since the Twins are spending $32 million on three members of the starting staff, that perhaps they could have picked up an ace like Scherzer or Lackey instead of paying big bucks for three guys who have career ERA+ numbers of 99, 98, and 91. 

[JB_Iowa]

One could also say that since the Twins are spending $32 million on three members of the starting staff, that perhaps they could have picked up an ace like Scherzer or Lackey instead of paying big bucks for three guys who have career ERA+ numbers of 99, 98, and 91. 

 

In this case I think I'd rather put the balls in 3 hands instead of 1.  We speak of league average as though that is a bad thing.  As bad as Twins pitching has been, league average would look pretty good.  I think out of the 4 likely pitchers -- Hughes, Santana, Nolasco and Gibson-- 2 will be above league average, one will be average and the other will be below average.  The 5th position's performance is a crapshoot.  

 

But if this staff finishes at league average (or better yet, above average), it'll be a nice step forward,

[amjgt]

I feel like in the draft, the last 3 years, the Twins have been following your plan.

 

Very few positional players in the first 10 rounds, except for catchers in 2013.

Higher upside arms in the first 5 rounds

College pitchers in rounds 6-10 (most of them relievers in 2014)

 

In free agency, as you point out, they have been doing the opposite of your plan, signing aging, slow, offense first positional players and spending on higher risk starting pitchers.

 

The point was made by the previous posters, something had to be done based on the complete disaster of the rotation the last 3 years. Based on the slow cycle of draft to majors, it was just going to be too long before draft-acquired pitchers made an impact.

 

They even tried to fast-forward the process a couple seasons ago when they traded Span and Revere for Meyer and May (and Worley, who were and are all cost controlled) - although Span and Revere are exactly the type of players you are talking about loading your re-imagined Twins with.

[amjgt]

After reviewing the last 3 years' drafts, I looked at 2011 and 2010. Oh my goodness. Those drafts were SO BAD.

 

2009 had 3 players who played for the Twins last year (Gibson, Dozier, and Herrmann), so it's hard to bash that draft, but the rest of that draft is a who's who of players that I've never heard of.

[beckmt]

You can never have too much good pitching.  If you have way too much good pitching, it becomes a trade chip to be spent on filling other positional player holes in your lineup.  Nolasco does not seem to want to be here and I hope he pitches well enough to make that happen.   I expect that is why Santana was signed.  Having 7 or 8 starting pitchers competing for 5 jobs will be the best the Twins have had in a long time.  They still have more on the way.  Getting to average starting pitching  this year and above average next year is our best hope of having a better record.  We should temper that by saying the Central Division is improved on the lower end and a little less good on the upper end(unless Detroit resigns Max).  That still will mean the Twins will have to make better strides against the Central to get near to .500 for the year.  Hopefully the Twins will be competitive enough to bring in reenforcements at midseason instead of trading veterans for prospects.  They will have to be there soon to avoid becoming another Cleveland which now has decent teams and not great attendance, which hampers signing the players you need to get over the top.  Even with the improvement the Twins could well have the worst starting pitching in the division this year and will need some of the rookies to step in to get above that level.

[ken]

I agree that you can never have too much pitching, but having a lot of pitcher competing for spots doesn't mean you have good pitching.  I think any offseason ranking of SP will have the Twins at the bottom 5 in staffs and the worst in the central.  Being league average is the upside for this staff.

 

The hope for this team is the young pitchers.  If Meyers is a top of the rotation pitcher, it will make a huge difference, but I think you need to commit to giving him the job out of spring training.  He'll have his up and down's but you have to ride it out in hopes he is the player they traded a good starting major league CF three years ago.

 

So No, I don't think they are doing it right if the goal is to be World Series contender.  If you are hoping for an average team and a .500 record, Yes they are building the right way.

[Major League Ready]

The FO did what was needed to get to respectability quickly without losing the prospects we hope will make us a contender.  The short term effect is to get us close to a 500 team.  The question for me is will it extend the period of mediocrity.

 

In 2017-18 we will have over $50M tied up in Mauer, Nolasco, and Santana in their age 34 & 35 seasons.  I don't know about you but I would sure like to have that $50 to spend on two front of the rotation starters or a SP and whatever hole we need to fill in 2017 and 2018.  One could make a case that we are leveraging the future to get respectable now.  Of course, if Nolasco and Santana perform and stay healthy, there is a chance the Twins could deal them at some point.  That could aid in a run of several good years.  However, history would suggest that best case scenario does not have good odds.

 

We can say that prospects don't always work out but the reality is that the only way a team with revenues of 100-200M less than the top markets is going to contend for the WS is by success through their farm system and international signings.  Therefore, the argument is mitigated if the goal is to contend.  We are now betting on health and performance of 34-35 y/o SPs. 

 

It comes down to a choice between getting respectable now vs locking up payroll in starters well past their prime when we should have a very solid core of young players in 2017-18.  I would have preferred we never signed Nolasco and signed Hammel or Volquez this year and taken a good look at May, Meyer, Milone, and Berrios this year.  The FA class of SPs looks very good for next year.  We could have been better positioned to understand our needs and also better positioned in terms of payroll and roster flexibility had we fully embraced rebuilding. 

[Mike Sixel]

I agree with MLR on this one.......but, I can see what the Twins are doing, I just don't think it is what I would do. That said, I think they are feeling the pressure to actually try to win (raising the question, where was that pressure the last two years......). Me? I'd rather they had traded Nolasco for nothing, and then spent the Santana/Nolasco money on one elitish pitcher, and made room for two young guys out of spring training, with two young guys in AAA waiting (not to mention others). 

 

But, not sure I can see how the Twins could add hitting this FA period (reminding us that you can't wait until you need one, sometimes there are NO FA available at your position of need that are any good) that anyone would really like.

 

I'd have preferred getting a look at Meyer last year, but now it might not even happen until sometime later this year. I don't know how they see Berrios this year, with May, Meyer, Milone in front of him (not to mention all the older guys). If they had made room for these guys this year, then they'd know what they have, and could spend on 1 or 2 legit SP at that time.

 

I have no major issues with their plan, I just don't see it working out all that well (as in, I think they are saddled with old, mediocre, SP that they won't just cut).

[Dman]

Personally I don't think speed solves all of your problems. It is hard to find 70-80 grade runners at every position and speed guys tend to have a short shelf life and they tend to get hurt. Granted there are some who defy the odds but they are rare. Power hitters put just as much pressure on pitchers as speed guys as one mistake and run(s) are scored. Balance seems to be the rule more than exception IMO.

 

It seems to me that Ryan wanted to rely on his farm system for pitching but it took longer than he expected and several signings of low end pitching options did not work out for him. He had to stop the bleeding. Although the signings take the pitchers into their thirties by then he should have a bridge to some good to great pitching talent ready to fill in if injuries or ineffectiveness are problems. If the farm doesn't provide the arms needed In three years then this team would be in even worse shape without the signings.

 

I feel like the Twins are in a good spot right now but they still need some luck on their side as many of the prospects we are counting on will have to turn out for them to return to dominance.

[nicksaviking]

This team is too old to be considered a rebuilding team.

[jorgenswest]

I don't think the a Twins management has done anything since 2011 to address the poor defense. They continue to add guys like Willingham, Doumit, Nishioka, Kubel, Suzuki and Hunter while moving Revere and Span. They throw Colabello, Parmelee, Plouffe, Bartlett and Santana into positions they have never played or at least rarely played recently. As a result, their defense has been the worst in baseball every year (particularly in terms of outfield range and framing pitches).

 

There are many here who join them in believing that defense has little impact on giving up runs. It must be all on the pitcher. Let's fix the pitching.

 

This year they could have fixed the defense. Instead of signing Suzuki, trade him for the best they can get. Perhaps they could have gotten Bourjos from the Cards while Molina was out. If not, it wouldn't have taken much more than Suzuki. Sign Russell Martin and Colby Rasmus this winter.

 

Those three would have been a tremendous upgrade in LF, CF and C. They would have put our younger pitchers in a much better situation to transition to the major leagues.

 

No. I don't think they are going about it right. I haven't thought so since they signed Willingham and Doumit.

[dxpavelka]

You are correct that there are no guarantees when throwing money at starting pitching.  You fail, however, to take the point far enough.  There are no guarantees when throwing money at anything.  Josh Hamilton anyone?  Mo Vaughn?  Johan Santana as a Met?  The 2014 Yankees?  Phillies?  Red Sox?  About half of all free agent signings turn out to be duds, especially on the back half of the contracts.  The best use of salary dollars tends to be re-signing your own home grown talent-If you do so for the right amount, at the right time for the right players that are the right fit for you team. 

 

You also can't put yourself in Billy Beane's chair you can't build your team around guys who are going to steal bases.  Guys who get on base, yes.  But guys whose game is bunting and stealing bases, no. 

 

Also the historical Twin "bashers" you listed had a total of eleven 30 home run seasons in Twins uniforms with exactly zero of those seasons coming from 1988 to 2005.  Don Baylor hit one (post-season) home run in a Twins uniform. 

[TheLeviathan]

There are many here who join them in believing that defense has little impact on giving up runs. It must be all on the pitcher. Let's fix the pitching.

 

 

I think this is currently what bugs me most about this team.  I agree with what they've done to add pitching, that has to be improved too, but utterly ignoring the defense?  I can't explain that.

[laloesch]

I agree with MLR on this one.......but, I can see what the Twins are doing, I just don't think it is what I would do. That said, I think they are feeling the pressure to actually try to win (raising the question, where was that pressure the last two years......). Me? I'd rather they had traded Nolasco for nothing, and then spent the Santana/Nolasco money on one elitish pitcher, and made room for two young guys out of spring training, with two young guys in AAA waiting (not to mention others). 

 

But, not sure I can see how the Twins could add hitting this FA period (reminding us that you can't wait until you need one, sometimes there are NO FA available at your position of need that are any good) that anyone would really like.

 

I'd have preferred getting a look at Meyer last year, but now it might not even happen until sometime later this year. I don't know how they see Berrios this year, with May, Meyer, Milone in front of him (not to mention all the older guys). If they had made room for these guys this year, then they'd know what they have, and could spend on 1 or 2 legit SP at that time.

 

I have no major issues with their plan, I just don't see it working out all that well (as in, I think they are saddled with old, mediocre, SP that they won't just cut).

 

I think both of you are spot on with this.  My preference would be to trade Nolasco for a bag of baseballs and DFA Pelfrey who is worth next to nothing and doesn't fit into the long term plans anyways.  

 

In retrospect I'm okay with the Santana signing but would have preferred that they spent more and signed an ace quality starter instead of another #3/#4 guy.  The other option would have been to wait until 2016 to grab a front line starter in a better free agent class. 

 

The strategy that Ryan is now taking should have been executed two years ago when May and Meyer still had a ways to go to get to the big leagues.  Unfortunately, it appears the neither will get many starts in 2015 when they both should have been starting 15-20 games at 24/25 years old.  Johan Santana debuted at age 21 and won 20 games by age 24.  May and Meyer are being held back for no reason now.  What's even more puzzling is the Tim Stauffer signing.  Terry Ryan has indicated that he will get every opportunity to compete for the #5 spot in the rotation.  

[Major League Ready]

IMO, the age of the current team does not dictate if the team SHOULD be rebuilding.  Does the current team have the core to contend?  Perhaps more importantly, is the farm system stocked with players that are the future of the team?  These are some of the questions I would ask in determining if we should be rebuilding.

[KGB]

IMO, the age of the current team does not dictate if the team SHOULD be rebuilding.  Does the current team have the core to contend?  Perhaps more importantly, is the farm system stocked with players that are the future of the team?  These are some of the questions I would ask in determining if we should be rebuilding.

I think the string of 90 losses season are the indication we should be rebuilding.

[stringer bell]

The team shed a lot of older players, especially position players--Kubel, Bartlett, Colabello, Willingham, Correia, and Burton. The Twins still have plenty of age in their pitching staff, but they have phased in youngsters Santana and Vargas and are have more young guys on the doorstep. This club's player who has been at the same position the longest is Trevor Plouffe, who took third base in May (?) of 2011. the entire rotation will have turned over since 2013 and again younger guys are getting close.

[Major League Ready]

I am going to be praying Nolasco is great the first half of the season and we not only trade him before the deadline but get a good return.  That would really change the future landscape.   Assuming May or Milone make the trip north, Meyer gets brought up when Nolasco is traded.  If May or Meyer don't make it, we have Berrios ready by 2016.  If you are going to wish you may as well wish big.

[stringer bell]

Here's my view (trying to be realistic). No way Nolasco gets traded in 2015. Injuries and ineffectiveness will happen. At least seven or eight guys will get multiple starts during the 2015 season.

[Linus]

This.  Anybody who pitches well will get more than ample opportunity to prove themselves. We were killing the Twins for not spending money and now we are worried we spent money on free agents who might block unproven minor leaguers.  Can't have it both ways folks.

[Platoon]

If Nolasco starts hot, does anyone really think the Twins will trade him? That is not the "twins way".

[SwainZag]

I think both of you are spot on with this.  My preference would be to trade Nolasco for a bag of baseballs and DFA Pelfrey who is worth next to nothing and doesn't fit into the long term plans anyways.  

 

In retrospect I'm okay with the Santana signing but would have preferred that they spent more and signed an ace quality starter instead of another #3/#4 guy.  The other option would have been to wait until 2016 to grab a front line starter in a better free agent class. 

 

The strategy that Ryan is now taking should have been executed two years ago when May and Meyer still had a ways to go to get to the big leagues.  Unfortunately, it appears the neither will get many starts in 2015 when they both should have been starting 15-20 games at 24/25 years old.  Johan Santana debuted at age 21 and won 20 games by age 24.  May and Meyer are being held back for no reason now.  What's even more puzzling is the Tim Stauffer signing.  Terry Ryan has indicated that he will get every opportunity to compete for the #5 spot in the rotation.  

 

To get rid of Nolasco at this point the Twins would probably have to throw in cash after the season he had.  He pitched well after he came off the DL.  If he can jump back to his form the season before the Twins signed him he certainly has value.  Pelfrey very well could be a lost cause or maybe they try him in the bullpen and they find a useful arm and a trade deadline piece when one of the young guns are ready.

 

Johan turned 25 a month before the season started in which he won 20 games, so not quite by age 24.  He also was pitching in A ball at the age of 19 or 2+ years before Meyer would even be drafted.  Not all players mature at the same path and for May last year is when he realistically should have debuted. Comparing anyone to Santana really isn't fair though.

[DocBauer]

Honestly...in direct answer to the question...YES.

 

With little exception, and as long as they continue down the path they are currently on.

 

I could blast the team for a few really boneheaded moves the last year or so to be sure. Due to short-sightedness or just too much wishful thinking/grasping at straws I don't know. But there have been a couple of doozies. But even though the team has been reluctant to use the word "rebuild", as though it were dirty or insulting in some way...they seem to prefer to paint an illusion of possible contention yearly...they are, in fact, now in rebuild mode. And really, they have been for two years.

 

Once and for all, let's just drop the 4 losing seasons in a row bunk. 2011 was a team expected by everyone to win and content before vast injuries and the such. 2012, naïve or not, was a "well, that can't happen again, so let's retool some and get back at it" kind of year. And to be fair, history has often shown teams to have solid to strong bounce back years after sudden dive ones. But there is no mistaking that 2013 and 2014 were rebuild years.

 

How has it started?

 

1) Drafting more power arms as SP or RP, and the trades for May and Meyer to continue this new trend.

 

2) The team actually spending real and generally smart money in the FA market without getting caught up in bidding wars to handcuff tomorrow, and the days/years after that, while still helping the team.

 

3) Promotion of youngsters. Arcia was promoted quickly, as was Santana and Vargas, and Hicks...though you can't win them all. Argue about the Twins being too slow to promote pitchers, and I'll agree to a certain point, but NOBODY thought Gibson would stick out of ST last season and he did, and did very well. Cry about May and Meyer all you want, but May got his shot after just over 1/2 a season of AAA ball, and Meyer probably gets a real shot this ST. And there's quite a few other guys who either moved quickly last season, or pitched very young for their age at their level.

 

My belief is a move for a quality CF for this year is the one missing piece for a pretty good team. If you can trade or sign or find a better 25th man option than Nunez, so much the better. Otherwise, I think we're about set to go to ST.

 

*One last note, I like Nolasco. I think he was a solid signing. Get off his case, he's a very solid MLSP year to year, but he was hurt last year. He has a real chance to help the team this season, and is not some sunk cost because of a down and injury plagued season. It happens. HOWEVER...I sincerely hope he pitched well enough to be traded so that we can afford an opportunity to move a May or Meyer in to the rotation to join the other, along with Hughes, Santana and Gibson.

[Mike Sixel]

Some of us were pretty sure 2012 would be bad, I don't think you are being fair at all. It isn't "bunk".