Article: Early Offseason Rumors

[Nick Nelson]

The offseason is underway, and although we've already seen a couple notable signings, most analysts are expecting the free agent market to develop slowly this year.

 

Still, with the door now open, conversations are beginning to take place as we build toward the MLB Winter Meetings, which are three weeks away.

 

Let's take a look at the early Twins-related rumblings.* Unsurprisingly, the Twins were listed by Ken Rosenthal as one team that has shown preliminary interest in Torii Hunter. The past history, and Minnesota's need for a corner outfielder who can help mentor the youngsters, make it easy to see why they would pursue him.

 

Hunter has stated publicly that he plans to play in 2015, even though he'll be turning 40 in July. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowsky declared that he "probably won't re-sign Torii," so the veteran will almost certainly be playing elsewhere next year.

 

But considering that he's near the end of his career, Hunter is likely to latch on with a team that has a better shot at contending than the Twins. That's probably just as well, since this club needs defensive help in the outfield and at this point Hunter doesn't really provide that.

 

* Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reported over the weekend that the Twins have inquired about Justin Masterson. Although he's coming off a rough season, Masterson is only 29 and was excellent in 2011 and 2013. He was the starter we suggested signing in our blueprint for the Offseason Handbook, and was the top name on a list of buy-low starter candidates published here last week.

 

Needless to say, I'm glad to hear that Ryan and the Twins are at least moving quickly to get on his radar. Whether or not they sign him, Masterson fits the profile that Minnesota should be targeting: a youngish guy who won't require a long commitment and offers a realistic chance of being more than a fourth or fifth starter.

 

* Wolfson also put out Alex Rios as a name worth watching with the Twins seeking a right-handed bat for the outfield. Rios is preferable to Hunter, as he's much younger and offers more in the speed and defense departments.

 

As a righty with pull power, Rios seems like a nice fit for Target Field and for the Twins. But his production has been inconsistent and he's almost 34, so it'd be tough to justify a multi-year deal, especially for a risk-averse GM like Ryan. Who's to say Rios will be a better option a year from now than someone like Eddie Rosario, or Aaron Hicks, or even Trevor Plouffe?

 

Ultimately, the length of Rios' desired deal could be a stumbling block.

 

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[Jack Torse]

A mid-30's, a buy low and a forty year old. Surely there's a Zumaya or Harden to placate fans too. Nothing like a good hot stove.

[big dog]

I was never a fan of Rios when he played here with the White Sox- inconsistent is a generous term for his performance.  He did have some tools, if any are left.

 

Hunter creates too many distractions for my taste.  Too many hey-don't-you-want-to-know-what-I-think interviews.  I always thought he confused leadership with talking a lot (and throwing a punch).

[Boom Boom]

I'd be fine with Masterson. Hunter and Rios don't do anything for me and I'd just as soon put Rosario in left field.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Rosario is not ready for MLB. He needs to prove he can hit AA, AAA, or even AFL pitching first. He hasn't posted an OPS significantly north of .750 since the first half of 2013.

[iTwins]

I'm just not on the Masterson bandwagon. His declining velocity concerns me - he's certainly not in the same class as Pelfrey / Correia / Marquis (IE: retreads) - but I fear his numbers are pointing towards a decline. He may be nothing more than a bad lottery ticket. If we're rolling the dice, let's go with youth.

 

As for the LF / CF conundrum. I'm on board with Aoki as a possible LF fill in or Rasmus as the starting CF option. I don't see the Twins signing two OFs - so some blend of Hicks / Rasmus or Aoki / Arcia with Schafer off the bench works for me.

 

I don't want Hunter. At all. Bad defense, declining bat. If they want him to mentor, hire him as a coach. I don't want him in LF.

 

Rios...meh. On a one year deal he could be serviceable, but I wouldn't go any longer than that. By 2016, the Twins OF situation could look a whole lot different - I'd rather not have aging veterans blocking the way.

Edited November 17, 2014 by iTwins

[Boom Boom]

Not saying Rosario is my top choice, but if the other options are the remains of Torii or Alex Rios, of whom I've never been a fan, I say roll with it, baby. Santana wasn't ready last year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not saying Rosario is my top choice, but if the other options are the remains of Torii or Alex Rios, of whom I've never been a fan, I say roll with it, baby. Santana wasn't ready last year.

When he was originally promoted, Aaron Hicks had more recent success in MiLB than Rosario has had in MiLB in the past 18 months.

 

Let's not repeat the Aaron Hicks situation.

[Mike Sixel]

I pretty much hate all the options to fix the OF right now. Good luck to TR on fixing even one of the positions this year. This is, of course, why I believe you don't wait until the "perfect" time to sign a FA, because there might not be one there in the future that helps you.....when you have money and need, and there is a FA, sign him.

[davidc3915]

I like the Masterson possibility.  With any luck, he could be Phil Hughes 2.0

 

I've been thinking about Plouffe in the OF once Sano is ready. 

[Mike Sixel]

Sano and Buxton might not be ready this year.......what do you do in LF and CF until 2016? 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm just not on the Masterson bandwagon. His declining velocity concerns me - he's certainly not in the same class as Pelfrey / Correia / Marquis (IE: retreads) - but I fear his numbers are pointing towards a decline. He may be nothing more than a bad lottery ticket. If we're rolling the dice, let's go with youth.

We're already rolling the dice on a few other pitchers, including some youth (May/Meyer).  Adding Masterson doesn't guarantee anything, but it gives us an extra dice roll.

[markos]

I'm just not on the Masterson bandwagon. His declining velocity concerns me - he's certainly not in the same class as Pelfrey / Correia / Marquis (IE: retreads) - but I fear his numbers are pointing towards a decline. He may be nothing more than a bad lottery ticket. If we're rolling the dice, let's go with youth.

The hope with Masterson is that the velocity decline is a direct result of a sore knee that he dealt with all season. If he knee heals this offseason, he may be back to normal.

[gunnarthor]

I've been a big supporter of Masterson - I think last year was an injury caused problem and his GB rate and K rates would make a good transition to TF.  

 

I like Hunter as a 4/5th OF type, but not as a starter.  If he's willing to do that, I'm ok with it.  Rios does nothing for me.  As others have mentioned, Rasmus might be a more entertaining attempt.

[mori0189]

When he was originally promoted, Aaron Hicks had more recent success in MiLB than Rosario has had in MiLB in the past 18 months.

 

Let's not repeat the Aaron Hicks situation.

Santana was pulled from AA, so was Kennys Vargas.  They didn't play at all in AAA.  I would also say that they where not necesarily hitting the snot out of the ball either..

[KGB]

Santana was pulled from AA, so was Kennys Vargas.  They didn't play at all in AAA.  I would also say that they where not necesarily hitting the snot out of the ball either..

 

I agree that we shouldn't use Aaron Hicks as an example not to bring up young players.  The problem with Aaron Hicks is looking more like a Aaron HIcks problem and not a being brought up too young.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Santana was pulled from AA, so was Kennys Vargas.  They didn't play at all in AAA.  I would also say that they where not necesarily hitting the snot out of the ball either..

That's a bad precedent to use for decision-making. Santana is an outlier and should be viewed as such (which Ryan does, as evidenced by his comments in the handbook). Vargas had recent success, though not in the weeks preceding his promotion. His 2014 MiLB OPS was .832.

 

Rosario is an entirely different situation. He hasn't hit since the middle of 2013. That's an eon ago in prospect terms. Let him get his feet under him in the minors before promoting a guy who hasn't been able to shake off the rust since his suspension.

 

Rosario's numbers since his 2013 promotion to AA:

 

2013 AA: .742

2014: A+: .682

2014 AA: .672

2014 AFL: .755

 

Is that a guy you really want to promote right now?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Santana was pulled from AA, so was Kennys Vargas.  They didn't play at all in AAA.  I would also say that they where not necesarily hitting the snot out of the ball either..

Not quite true -- Santana played the first month of 2014 in AAA before his recall.

[beckmt]

I am fine with Hicks/Shaffer until other options arrive,  there is not a free agent outfielder that would interest me.

[Lazarus]

If you believe that Sano can stick at 3B, then Plouffe should be traded by July.  He'll be over 30 by then time the Twins are in a position to contend again - I believe his value is as high as it ever will be.  If the outfield is still a mess at that time, trade him for a younger outfielder rather than force-fitting him into that role.  Otherwise, trade him for pitching.

 

If Sano doesn't come back strongly, you can hang onto Plouffe a while longer unless you want to slot Escobar in at 3B.

[Rosterman]

Man, I keep having thoughts of that Red Sox package of Lester, Masterson, Crisp, Lowrie with Bowden as a throw-in for Santana. But we wanted Ellsbury. Or so the rumors flew waaaaay back when.

 

I'm thinking the Twins may play it slow in the free agent marketplace, as their needs do run more towards a one-year contract, unless the starter of their dreams at a workable 2-3 year price leaps in front of their headlights. 

 

Most players will be pushing for those multi-year deals, especially those over 34 or so for sure. But there are only so many roster spots and so much money, so we might find someone still kicking tires after everyone's card is full the closer the Twins get to spring training...but hopefully sooner.

 

They need a bat who can play the outfield, and/or backup somewhere else. We need a starter who will start games. We might be looking for some cheaper bullpen arms if we don't spend money on Duensing and Swarzak again. And a backup catcher would be great if we want Pinto to start fulltime in Rochester.

 

We have the centerfield mess of Hicks, Rosario, Scheafer, Buxton if he fires up spring training, or can always move Santana back out there if Eddie and Aaron go to Rochester, and we hope there is no second season slump (as well as one for Vargas).

[nicksaviking]

I like Masterson, as I'm a "high ceiling, I don't give a damn about the floor" kind of guy.

 

I actually think Hunter may have been a good sign the previous years under Gardy.  There seemed to be a leadership void, and I would have taken him just for his clubhouse presence.  Some may argue that his leadership skills tend toward the selfish side, but hey, Hitler sure as hell made a fine army out of those Germans.

 

I don't think there is as much of a leadership void now though.  Dozier seems to have taken the reigns and who knows what the dynamic will be with a new manager.  I liked seeing the young Latin players at the top of the dugout most of the games, I think Vargas, Santana and/or Arcia may turn into a field general.  I hope it's not Rommel, but he did get results.

[Willihammer]

Not quite true -- Santana played the first month of 2014 in AAA before his recall.

And hadn't done well there  (.268/.311/.381)

 

The fact remains, there was nothing in Santana's MiLB record to suggest he would come up and be the Twins best hitter, but he was. And as mentioned, Vargas was the 2nd best hitter (in a small sample) without even facing AAA pitching first.

 

If Rosario is ready for MLB pitching now (and I have no idea if he is), then he should be taken off the A-AA-AAA Path of MiLB Mastery and promoted as the other two were.

Edited November 17, 2014 by Willihammer

[Winston Smith]

Masterson is a lot like Hughes was last year, coming off a down year. Hughes has been good in even years and not good in odd years. Masterson is the other way good in odd years and not so much in even years. Their good years are a lot alike as are their bad years.

You can never have enough good pitching and he can be good at times.

[TheLeviathan]

And hadn't done well there  (.268/.311/.381)

 

The fact remains, there was nothing in Santana's MiLB record to suggest he would come up and be the Twins best hitter, but he was. And as mentioned, Vargas was the 2nd best hitter (in a small sample) without even facing AAA pitching first.

 

If Rosario is ready for MLB pitching now (and I have no idea if he is), then he should be taken off the A-AA-AAA Path of MiLB Mastery and promoted as the other two were.

 

We should probably start by dropping the assumption that Santana is a known quantity.  He is one of the most obvious regression candidates I can recall in quite some time.  Before we declare Vargas and Santana as successes that warrant during that practice into a habit, I might suggest we give it a bit more time.

 

The truth is that pretty much all teams avoiding rushing players because it harms development.  Going into next year relying on a guy in Rosario who is not ready, coupled with Hicks who has proven to be as unready as any ballplayer I've seen in, coupled with Schafer's almost certain regression....sounds like one of the worst planned disasters since Battlefield Earth.

Edited November 17, 2014 by TheLeviathan

[Monkeypaws]

We're already rolling the dice on a few other pitchers, including some youth (May/Meyer).  Adding Masterson doesn't guarantee anything, but it gives us an extra dice roll.

Could end up being an expensive dice roll. 

[Winston Smith]

Cards trade Shelby Miller to the Braves for Jason Heyward. 4 yrs of Miller for one year of Heyward? Not sure about this one.

[laloesch]

I will be angry if the Twins sign Materson, which keeps May and Meyer in AAA all season.  Materson's velocity has dropped significantly to the point that he barely cracks 90 on his fastball.  DO we REALLY need a right handed version of Milone?  A junkballer?  I just don't see the logic of this.  May and Meyer will BOTH be better pitchers then Materson, Nolasco and Gibson.  This is utter stupidity signing this guy.  If the Indians want nothing to do with him, you can bet he's damaged goods.  

[nater79a]

If you believe that Sano can stick at 3B, then Plouffe should be traded by July.  He'll be over 30 by then time the Twins are in a position to contend again - I believe his value is as high as it ever will be.  If the outfield is still a mess at that time, trade him for a younger outfielder rather than force-fitting him into that role.  Otherwise, trade him for pitching.

 

If Sano doesn't come back strongly, you can hang onto Plouffe a while longer unless you want to slot Escobar in at 3B.

 

I agree with this completely. Plouffe is one of your best trading chips. If Sano proves to be ready, use Plouffe as an asset and aquire a player in another area where you are deficient. Don't just try to shoehorn him into LF. Escobar at 3B is always a short-term option till Sano is ready. 

[kemics]

I like that Rios is "much younger" than Hunter... at 34. lol