Twins 2023 Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher

I really can't see both Hoffman and Pagan on this team.  If we are keeping track of the numbers and Ober isn't on the starter's list....then Hoffman won't make it.

Thanks for a great review of this year's pen, Nick.

Will we see Duran used like last year, ie, not strictly a closer but coming in anytime to put out a fire?  Am thrilled with what I am seeing from Alcala after his first outing or two.  If he can return like the dominant reliever we expect, WOW!

Bloody shame that Canterino will miss another year.  Will it be all year?  Or is it possible he is back before the season ends?  Regardless, he won't help the Twins this year, but hopefully, next.  The one pitcher who got a mention in your projections, but not later is Danny Coulumbe.  I could see him have a positive effect on this bullpen, even if he isn't on the roster next Thursday.

Excellent article!  The bullpen is still a question mark IMO.  But it potentially looks like it could be ok.  I agree with your assessment of their early season struggles.  Everyone seems to poo poo away poor games in April and may because it's early.  Don't those games count?  Apparently not.  The Twins would have had a much better record had Pagan in particular not been so rotten early in the season.  I believe his poor pitching in key situations was tied to around 10 losses last year but that's ok because they keep telling us games in April don't matter.  The Twins insistence on sticking with Pagan was strange.  I hope he bounces back and has a great year, even early when the games don't apparently matter.  I think I will give up if I hear twins management, announcers, players and others tell us that it's a marathon not a sprint when they play poorly in some otherwise winnable games.  Last time I checked, all teams games in April and May count in the standings.  Or did they forget to tell the Twins?

IMO aside from Duran, there are still way to many questions/concerns with the bullpen.  I understand that this is the case for most teams, but hopes/wishing seems more needed for the Twins.

Lopez essentially had a fantastic half-season (before the Twins traded for him). Can he repeat that?  Maybe, but his performance before that was brutal.

Can Alcala bounce back after injury and be effective?

Can Thielbar continue his magic?  Possibly.

Can Jax continue his strong progressing?  Hopefully.

Can Pagan harness his stuff and be effective?  Doubtful.

Hoffman, Megill, Moran - really unsure of what we will get from them.

Nick, prior to ST, you had an article on risk FO was taking by not signing one or two veteran relievers with good track records.  I agreed with that, but wonder why you are changing your opinion now?  The risk is still great.  Yes, Duran looks like a bonafide closer, but there's always the worrisome sophomore jinx that looms.  I agree that Lopez is a real key to success.  If he proves that his post-trade work with the Twins was a fluke, that is a big plus.  But the risk is still there.  After all, until last year, he was not even on anyone's radar as a closer.  Which Lopez will emerge in 2023?  There is a fair amount of risk here.

Going down your list, Thielbar and Jax are probably now #3/4 in pen pecking order.  Jax's lofty rating is worrisome; after all, he had an Inherited Runner's Scored % of 42% last year.  That is not what you want to see from a late inning reliever!  I,too, like Thielbar, but at age 35 can he repeat 2022 performance?  There is some risk here, too,  Frankly, my hope is that Alcala emerges as  a solid #3 pen arm ahead of these two, but can he rebound from serious injury?

As for the last 3 arms in the pen - Pagan, Hoffman and Moran -  the outlook is from somewhat below average to horrible, especially with the Rock's tendency to limit his starters IP.  As many have mentioned, Maeda in the pen and Ober starting looks like a plus-plus but so far, no hint of that happening.  Why Pagan is anywhere near a Twins dugout is mystifying.  Seems like more of Falvey's hubris at work.  Hoffman is a journeyman who has never succeeded at ML level, and Moran, despite his "stuff" continues to fight control(2 walks yesterday in one inning against Rays' subs).

I'm obviously looking back the past 2 years at this FO's frustrating reluctance to add better depth to the pen - a fault that  cost them dearly.  I hope they and you are right in this bullpen being in the top 10 as currently constituted, but I'll take the under here.  A playoff team is only as good as its weakest link and the pen, as well as recurring injuries, would seem a serious impediment to the 2023 Twins' success in even getting to the playoffs.

I like our steady Duran, Jax and Thielbar. Our questionable J Lo & Alcala have looked pretty good lately. That group can do a great job anchoring the BP. The prove me RP, Pagan has yet proven anything except that maybe he's a lost cause.

IMO SPs Maeda, Mahle & Ober should be limited pitches. Which should open up a long relief position. My definition of long relief is the extension of the rotation to where the past SP use to pitch. That the focus of a long RP is to win the game not to hold or to save the game. Therefore let's say Maeda or Ober could pitch in the long relief role. Any mop up games should be delegated to Pagan.

Ober really wants to break with the team and he deserves to. With him or Maeda as long RP would open up that opportunity instead of another short RP on the active roster.

I do not think Pagan belongs on the team. If Rocco keeps him then Pagan should only be given 2 chances to show he belongs in majors. Pagan throws 3 out of 4 pitches well, but the one bad pitch gets hit too hard. Rocco keeps saying Pagan has good stuff, but he throws one or two bad pitches that get hit almost every time he pitches.

With all the teeth grinding over Pagan I'm going to go out on a limb and say he will be our top setup man by seasons end.

The BP has plenty of ?'s but so does the rest of the team. Not everything is going to break right but I feel the BP one of the lesser worries this season.

40 minutes ago, John Belinski said:

I do not think Pagan belongs on the team. If Rocco keeps him then Pagan should only be given 2 chances to show he belongs in majors. Pagan throws 3 out of 4 pitches well, but the one bad pitch gets hit too hard. Rocco keeps saying Pagan has good stuff, but he throws one or two bad pitches that get hit almost every time he pitches.

This is perfectly said.  Who cares if his stuff 'shouldn't get hit' - results are all that matters.  I can't be confident in the pen if he's on it -  period.

When I think of "past performance", I'm looking at more than the recent past.  There is not one relief pitcher on this staff with dominant performance going back more than one year either because of youth (Duran, Jax, Moran, Winder) recently switched role (Lopez) or injury (Alcala).  Pagan hasn't been good since 2019 and Hoffman, Megill, Coulombe and Ortega are just not good.  I'll grant that Thielbar has built up 2-1/3 years now of being good, but last year was his first full year with an FIP of less than 3.5 and an average WPA the last two years of 1 certainly keeps him out of the dominant I-feel-super-confident-when-he-comes-in class of reliever.  So I get where puckstopper1 is coming from.  

Bullpens are a challenge. but overall, I agree with the Twins philosophies on building one. they clearly don't think this is an area where spending big money in free agency money gets you good value, and considering how fungible relievers are I generally agree. They don't want to have a Designated 9th Inning Pitcher (formerly called a closer), because they want their best bullpen guys to be firemen who can take out a team's most dangerous hitters late game, even it's the 7th or 8th inning. I absolutely agree with that! they definitely believe in giving guys who flamed out as starters or couldn't stay healthy in the role a chance in relief and shown success that way and I'm also a huge fan of the method. And they'll churn through back end bullpen guys during the season to figure out who they can count on, and it's shown pretty good success there too.

Right now I feel ok about the bullpen. there's some high end talent there, there are guys that have proven success in the role, and they are definitely guys with upside. there are also question marks...but it's going to be rare not to have them. JMO. Having Duran at the back end is awesome; he's an absolute weapon. Jax and Thielbar had good seasons last year and there's every reason to believe Thielbar should be good again and a real possibility that Jax might improve. Alcala and Lopez have high end talent for sure, and I would argue Moran does as well with the awesome changeup.

the last two spots have the most questions. Hoffman is interesting, but wild. As a middle relief guy to see what he's capable of he's an interesting option. He's certainly worth looking at to see how he converts over from starting and whether his spring training numbers translate. Pagan is the guy where I wonder if the front office is stuck in the ol' sunk cost fallacy. maybe they've "fixed" him, but maybe they've just convinced themselves that they can get something out of a guy they traded for, even after a pretty awful season from a guy who has had 2 good relief years out of 6 and none in the last 3. I would have moved on from him, just to save the psyche of twins fans from a guy who at best seems pretty fungible, but I could be wrong.

It's interesting that Nick makes mention of Joe Smith as a troubling jack of judgment related to the bullpen. Smith was pretty good for the Twins the first 6 weeks of the season, and was doing what they signed him for: getting ground balls. The wheels started falling off the wagon, but the Twins still cut bait on him rather than hope he might regain his form (probably waited a little too long, but it's always a little tough with relievers to be sure with the small sample sizes) and even with his midseason collapse, he finished the year with a positive WPA. The Pagan decision-making is much more concerning than how they managed Smith IMHO.

Are there statistics for pitching coaches? That could be a deciding factor in whether or not some of these below average or young arms can break out. In previous years it seems that Wes Johnson was able to take a relief corps of relatively unkowns and make a few of them flash-in-the-pan superstars for a couple of years. 

I hope Alcala bounces back bigtime. I always felt he could've been closer material if he got in that unique groove.

Alot rides on Duran. Happily, Rocco will go closing by committee, givings shots to Lopez AND (ugh) Pagan in the early games.

To me, Lopez and Pagan are both the question mark. I like the risk of Lopez being a better "just a bullpen" guy than Pagan. I would like just ONE SPOT to be held by a questionable player in the pen.

Which is why I found it maddening that the Twins didn't sign ANY of the available relief pitcher options. Yes, they could've grabbed another Joe Smith (who wasn't bad for part of the season and jettisoned, like he was sooner rather than  buried)/

I like both Moran and the aging Thielbar. Both can get thru 3-4-5 batters in a game.

I wish Jax was a long relief guy, but seemed better spent as a setup guy now. Just don't let him start the 10th with a runner at second.

The question - would I keep Ober over Hoffman? Once Ober gets into the starting routine at St. Paul, which will also happen to Woods Richardson and Varland, you will want to keep him there. Then it leaves Megill, Coulombe and names like Ortega and Dobnak on the call-in roster, if there is a palce for them. It will be interesting to see how the Twins setup the "rotating" light rail express if they only have one roster spot in play. Heaven forbid they need to add a catcher short-term.

Again, can Duran build on last season and STAY the closer forever and ever. Or at least five more seasons.

Is Pagan injured?  I don't think he has pitched in over a week(?)

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

.they all count the same.

While this is a true statement it is very misleading. The trade deadline is August 2nd. The Twins have 53 after the deadline.

So lets say a week or so before the deadline they are 46 and 56, they probably aren't looking to acquire players and might be dumping/trading them or lets say they are 56 - 46 and now are acquiring players. In one scenario the last 60 games matters and the other not so much, Even if after all is said and done they end up with the same record the first 102 games meant something completely different in the grand scheme of the Twins plans.

4 hours ago, arby58 said:

Jax was great last year, start to finish - I'd say he's not much of a question mark.

Jax was good/solid last year, he wasn't great he allowed Inherited Runner's Scored % of 42% last year and blew 25% of his save chances. After August 10th I can agree he was close to great.

Duran was great last year zero blown saves in 26 attempts. Rafeal Montero was great last year and many others but lets not get ahead of ourselves on home town basis.

Now I like Jax and feel he will again be solid or better this year and continue to improve for the next few years, I like him as the 4th guy out of the pen type of reliever, somebody I trust to come in and get the job done with the top 2 need a day off but otherwise to come in 5th/6h inning and bridge to the super studs. IMO

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If Alcala is back, this bullpen looks very good to me. They were top 10 after the horrible start, and added Lopez and Alcala...An ordinary Lopez as your 5th or 6th best RP is a nice bullpen. 

100% agree, that has Duran, Lopez, the lefties, Alcala and Jax, That is pretty solid, And should mean Rocco doesn't have to over use anybody., will he is the unanswered question. I would still like Ober in the pen it shouldn't be that hard to get him 3 inning relief stints early in the season while the continue to ramp up the starters, plus if somebody is off or tweaks something he could come in a pitch 4 or possibly 5 innings, then get sent down to recover for the 10 days.

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Rocco doesn't set the team. 

Agreed - but does he have any power in regards to who he has on his team?  Rocco is the one oftentimes blamed (fair or not) when he sends Pagan out there.  Could Rocco simply tell the F.O. that Pagan isn't making this team out of spring training, or would they laugh at him?  To be responsible for a player you don't want on the team isn't fair - not saying Rocco feels that way.  Just hope he is only used in blow outs at this point.