Twins 2023 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

To be competitive, you have to pitch.  It was tough to give up Arraez but Lopez is a solid SP.  I'm encouraged with our depth as well.

Totally agree with you Nick, that we have a great rotation. Although we have a great rotation, IMO I had 3 question marks in how Ober, Mahle & Maeda were going to pan out. Ober because of his stamina as a rookie (which affected in injuries), Mahle because his shoulder side lined him and Maeda because of his absence from the game & effects from TJ (like control problems). Yet all 3 are very good pitchers.

In ST, Ober has been great, but how much can his arm take? Mahle's velo has been up & down and Maeda lacked control & gave up some HRs. Looking ahead to start the '23 season, I see limiting all 3 SPs innings and ramping up all 3 slowly. Of the 3, Ober has pitched the best and it'd be a shame to send Ober back down to AAA. IMO a 6-man rotation is not the answer. So what's the answer?

My solution is a 5-man rotation, having a long RP that pitches at least 3 innings on a regular basis. That SP will be stretching out as a long RP, ready to do some spot starting when the opportunity arises. Winder did that last year (with success), although he wasn't used very well there and when he entered the starting rotation he was over-stretched. So who should be that long RP?

Ideally with less disturbance it should be Ober, but if he can't then the lot falls on Maeda because he has experience there. IMO the one that has this role as long RP, will be to his advantage. Because he'll be put in more opportunities to win games, thus more opportunities to accumulate wins. Which is still considered as important.

Here's hoping for good healthy in the twins rotation this year, because there's definitely a lot of talent there. It's easily the deepest Twins rotation I can recall; no one is in there on scholarship and there's no desperate veteran signing that we hope isn't washed up either. 

The minor league depth is good with Ober, Varland, and Woods Richardson...but it thins out after that to unproven guys and veteran retreads, but you can't expect to have 5 quality MLB starters waiting in AAA.

The good part is after having years where we needed to sign 3-4 starters just to have a possibly functional rotation, we're nicely loaded up this year with a good design for next season even if the free agents all move on with Lopez, Ryan, and Paddack already being in place and at least one of Ober, Varland, and Woods Richardson likely to be ready to be a full time guy in MLB in 2024.

Very fair assessment with pros and cons.  Of course everyone wants an ace or two and it's hard to win a WS without it, but the first thing is to make the playoffs - ideally win the division.  The way they do that is consistently being in games and racking up wins against the bottom half.  Legit depth will help a lot.  Last year, it was digging deep into the 40-man roster while this year there is a lot of MLB experience.  I'm looking forward to watching games with faster pace and fewer less-than-five-inning starts which should also lead to more wins.  And yeah it would be nice to see a number one (maybe even an ace!?!) emerge, get the playoff monkey off the back and make a run.  In baseball, spring = hope!

I don’t think anyone has described Ryan as having an overpowering fastball. He relies on movement of his pitches. Otherwise good article. 

Who needs aces when you're holding a hand full of Kings. 

29 minutes ago, Dennesey55347 said:

Who needs aces when you're holding a hand full of Kings. 

Nicely put! Dennesey

I would like to see Ober start and Maeda prove himself in the pen for the beginning of the season.  I worry about him even more that Mahle and his mystery ailment.  If Ober and Maeda piggyback each other and rotate who starts we have a chance for both of them to be at top form when the inevitable injury happens.

I would rather see de Leon rather than Sanchez, if going to call-in a minor league free agent sitting in St. Paul. For his contract signed, Randy Dobnak will still be a consideration. I'm hoping Headrick can also see action this year, if nothing else as a long man out of the pen towards the end of the season.

The situation is such that I would not choose to miss a game because ‘so-and-so’ is starting today so why bother. I’d be okay watching any of these starters and thinking it will be a competitive game.

20 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

4 Aces beat 4 Kings.

Which teams have 4 Aces?

The way I see the Twins SPs is that there is quite a bit of potential upside but also a lot of question marks as well. If things go well, the Twins could end up with one of the better SP staffs in MLB. If all of these guys have great years, there would be no hole in this rotation. With that said, there are plenty of spots where things could get derailed. The Twins do have some competent depth options so it isn't like they are going to need to rely on Griffin Jax or Martin Perez to start a bunch of games. The potential for greatness is there, which is something we haven't been able to say for a while.

1. Bundy and Archer started ONE-third of games last year, not TWO-thirds. It just seemed like two-thirds at times. 

2. Randy Dobnak is missing from the Depth line, right? 

3. What I’m struck by is that the Depth line looks like what the Opening Day rotation has looked like some years. That excites me.

4. To build on Dennesy’s comment about four (five) Kings is that each of them has the ability to pitch “like an ace” for an extended run. I think at least one will do that this year. I can’t say which one, but that’s the beauty of having five guys* in that category — the likelihood of one or two out of five is so much better than the odds of one or two out of one or two. That excites me as well.

*Apologies if I got anyone thinking of a burger in mid-afternoon.  That would be a third reason for excitement, except that I’m sitting at Moe’s, face down in a cup of queso.

 I will be tuning in to any start started by pitchers 1 thru 8 or so on this depth chart. Add in the pitch clock and now we're talking. Fast paced quality pitching, sign me up!

I'm very excited about the rotation and the depth. I'm not going to get in to a debate about a 6 man rotation, or moving Maeda to the pen, or any of that. We've already discussed that a ton and things will shake out one way or another. They always do.

Gray, Lopez, and Ryan look ready to start the season now.

I have at least a little concern about Mahle and Maeda as each has been inconsistent during ST. But I'm not worried until the season actually begins and we see questionable performance. For veteran starters, ST is often simply about getting the work in. Other times it's about trying a new pitch, a new grip, maybe even different sequencing. Sometimes, when we see a poor game or bad inning, that pitcher might be throwing a ton of a single pitch just to get it working and the results might look bad. But it's part of the process. 

Ober needs to remain stretched out, even if that means he does begin the year in AAA. He's too good to be there, but he's too important for the season, and the future, to suddenly begin messing with his preparation and usage. Despite his injury last year, the hard work put in during 2021 to refine his delivery seems to have paid off. His IP this year will probably still be monitored, but I'd love to see him hit the 120 mark.

Having further depth in Varland and SWR is a luxury we haven't had in a very long time. With a little luck, neither will be needed for a couple of months, other than maybe for a double header. That gives them more time to ramp up and gain additional experience. And while he's been slowed this spring, I'm not forgetting about Winder even a little bit. He's as good as either of these other two, IMO.

And while he's going to be a good month behind everyone else, don't be surprised to see a healthy Balazovic ready come July, or the end of. He was a top 100 prospect before 2022 and the issues with his knee. That kind of talent doesn't just go away. I'm fully expecting a solid year with a strong finish.

Agree that Dobnak's future is either in the pen, or perhaps some place else. He's had a solid spring, but he's missed a lot of time and needs to pitch every 5th day for St Paul to get back to what he was previously. Not sure of his future, but wouldn't bet against him being a depth piece in 2024.

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Whoops, sorry about the typo 😅

Re; Dobnak. I get the sense that his only path back to the majors (at least this year) is as a length guy out of the bullpen.

On Dobnak, is that based on comments you’ve heard and/or how they’ve used him in ST? Or just a sense on your part? I don’t have reason to dispute, just wondering, given that most of his usage has been as a starter in the past. 

Before we shout - 4 Kings, let's see the performance on the field.  Too many question marks to start the bragging now.