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Projecting 26-man rosters is a thankless practice. What looks like a sound prediction one day can be proven moot by a twinge or a sproing the next. Regardless, we here at Twins Daily persevere. Although our hard work is under a perpetual threat of being deemed meaningless and outdated, we still want to keep you, valued reader, informed on what your favorite team could look like as the 162-game season begins in less than two weeks.
The Twins had been relatively lucky in the injury department for most of camp, as relievers Matt Canterino, Michael Tonkin, and Erasmo Ramírez were the only potential contributors who sustained significant injuries. Unfortunately, those fortunes changed when star third baseman Royce Lewis sustained a left hamstring strain in the process of grounding out to third base in the second inning of Sunday's exhibition game against the Boston Red Sox.
Lewis will undergo an MRI on Monday and will almost certainly begin his 2025 campaign on the 10-day IL. What implications will his presumed absence have on the club's Opening Day 26-man roster? Let's take a look.
Catchers (2): Ryan Jeffers, Christian Vázquez
Minnesota will field Jeffers and Vázquez behind the plate for the third consecutive season. Last season, the two veterans started 81 games each at that spot, a perfect 50/50 split. Although generating a perfect split presumably won't happen again this season—it's nearly impossible to do that, from a logistical standpoint; props to you, Rocco Baldelli—the tandem will try again to maintain a near-perfect timeshare, with Vázquez potentially earning more time behind the plate due to his defensive superiority.
The Twins have one of the best catching duos in the AL. Those who follow the team should find comfort in that reality, despite many vocally advocating for Vázquez's departure over the past five months. Jair Camargo will serve as the primary depth option at Triple A, with recently acquired post-hype prospect Diego Cartaya serving as a high-upside fourth option alongside Camargo in St. Paul.
Infielders (7): Ty France, Brooks Lee, José Miranda, Carlos Correa, Willi Castro, Edouard Julien, Mickey Gasper
This is going to be a little controversial, but hear me out. The Twins will exercise France's $1 million contract. Crazy! I know. Here I come with the hot takes on what's supposed to be a strictly informative 26-man roster projection.
Arguably, Lewis's subtraction affects the right side of the infield more than his primary position, third base. The trio of Miranda, Lee, and Castro can sufficiently replace his production at the hot corner, with Miranda likely receiving the bulk of those opportunities. However, with Miranda and Lee needing to slide over to third base more than expected, depth becomes more of a concern at second and first. That being the case, I project Julien and Gasper (both of whom can play each of those spots) to be rewarded with spots on the 26-man roster.
Their skill sets are redundant. However, Julien and Gasper being able to slot in at first base, second base, designated hitter, or a bench role on a game-to-game basis provides the club the flexibility necessary to navigate the early months of a 162-game marathon. Castro will remain in the second base, third base, and shortstop (and first base?) mix, but play plenty of outfield, too. Also, it should be noted that Correa is still an exceptional shortstop whose health will play an integral role in Minnesota's ability to return to the postseason.
Outfielders (4): Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Harrison Bader
Aside from catcher, the Twins' outfield is their most stable position-player unit. Larnach and Wallner will handle the corners against right-handed pitching, with Buxton operating as a cog in center field. When the team faces left-handed starting pitchers, Bader could slot into left or right field, with Castro or one of Larnach or Wallner occupying the other corner.
Like Lewis and Correa, Buxton's health will significantly affect how productive Minnesota's outfield can be. However, if Buxton does miss extended time, Bader or left-handed hitting outfield prospect DaShawn Keirsey could deliver the defensive prowess necessary to mimic his production in center field.
Starting Rotation (5): Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson
The organization optioning starting pitchers David Festa and Zebby Matthews to Triple-A this past Sunday solidifies Woods Richardson's standing in the club's five-pitcher starting rotation. Twins decision-makers awarding Woods Richardson the final rotation spot over Festa and Matthews isn't surprising, considering his contributions to the team in desperate times last season. However, there is reason to believe that Festa and Matthews will be the better pitchers in the long term.
If Festa and Matthews perform well at Triple-A to begin the season (which is the expectation), it will be interesting to see if they usurp Woods Richardson or Paddack for one of the back-of-the-rotation spots. Alas, injuries will probably make that kind of speculation moot. López, Ryan, and Ober form one of the strongest starting pitching trios in baseball, and their ability to perform at or above their career rates will be a driving force in Minnesota's ability to bounce back from last season's drastic late-season collapse.
Bullpen (8): Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, Danny Coulombe, Jorge Alcalá, Louis Varland, Eiberson Castellano
Did you know that FanGraphs projects the Twins to have the game's best bullpen? What?! I know! That's how I responded, too. Even if you follow the club closely, you are probably learning this information for the first time. I understand if some of you reading this need to regroup after exposure to the shocking truth I just dropped on you.
Snark aside, yes, Minnesota's bullpen could be exceptional. However, injuries have made depth a concern. Tonkin and Ramírez won't be ready for Opening Day, and there is reason to suspect medium- to high-leverage reliever Justin Topa will also begin the season on the 15-day IL. That being the case, Alcalá and Varland are seemingly locked into the bullpen's sixth and seventh roles. Injuries should never be celebrated. However, it will be interesting to see Alcalá and (more notably) Varland receive extended opportunities in the bullpen. Both could blossom into fire-throwing high-leverage arms, which would be a welcome development.
Despite a concerning 12-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over eight innings pitched, Castellano's four-seam fastball and curveball have impressed this spring, lending merit to the possibility that team decision-makers will provide the 23-year-old Rule 5 Draft selection an opportunity with the major-league club out of camp. Nevertheless, Durán, Jax, Sands, Stewart, and Coulombe will be the driving force behind the bullpen's ability to succeed this season. Uncertainty and volatility are part of every bullpen. However, there is reason to believe this unit could be one the most hard-throwing and effective bullpens in baseball this season.
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