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  • Jorge Lopez Being Traded To Miami For Dylan Florio

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    MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Jorge Lopez is being traded to the Marlins for Dylan Florio,. Report says that it is unknown if there are any other components to the deal. Stay tuned. 

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    ashbury

    ashbury 52,606

  • Gold Caretaker

    • Posted

    The Twins have their own analytics team, but we can play along at home.

    Florio has a below-average OPS-against this season, with a BABIP that suggests either his "luck" will improve, or batters are tattooing the ball for high-percentage opportunities.

    Lopez has an even worse OPS-against, and a BABIP suggesting he's actually been a bit fortunate, at that.

    Of course one partial year's numbers on any reliever qualify as Small Sample Size, so who knows what our FO's analysis ultimately was.

    It's a "challenge trade," involving two players with similar roles.  A low-stakes challenge, but still, one that can be directly compared from this point forward.

    I don't rule out that Lopez could have requested a trade.

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    Danchat

    Danchat 11,750

  • Gold Caretaker

    • Posted

    Welp, this confirms the Jorge Lopez trade was a terrible one, and they have sold low on him. Floro looks like another classic 'high ERA low FIP' reliever whose performance will be a mystery box, but most likely won't be here in 2024 and on.

    Can't say I feel any better about the bullpen... and it is seeming like the young arms aren't going to help much. Balazovic has looked like a keeper, but Moran just isn't good, Winder and Sands are mop-up arms. It's too bad they gave up too early on Cano but have given Moran more chances.

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    SwainZag

    SwainZag 6,474

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    Floro has been across the board a better pitcher than Lopez this year.

    The Twins essentially gave up Lopez's last year of ARB on a swap with Florio who is a pending FA.  30 year old for a 32 year old.

    Lopez:  5.09 ERA/5.94 FIP/2.8 BB/9   6.9 K/9     .265 BABIP

    Floro:  4.54 ERA/2.78 FIP/2.5 BB/9    9.3 K/9     .397 BABIP

    Combined with the mental health issues he has had, I can't see how this as awful as most of the comments are making it out to be so far.  This makes the trade last year seem worse, but that should have no bearing on this deal.  

    Makes sense for the Marlins, they get back someone they can hope to "fix" for another season for a guy who wasn't going to be back next season.

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    Hosken Bombo Disco

    Hosken Bombo Disco 16,958

  • Community Leader

    • Posted

    I do like the trade for Lopez's sake, but it doesn't really move the needle for the postseason. 

    The Twins still need at least 2 or 3 more bullpen arms to slot between Jax and Duran, if they want to make any noise. Thielbar and Stewart are nice arms, but not what is needed, in my opinion. Thielbar is effective and a lefty so obviously that is helpful. I actually thought the bullpen would be better this season.

    Is there another young left-handed pitcher in the minors with good stuff and good makeup who the Twins could quickly prepare/promote? 

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    Danchat

    Danchat 11,750

  • Gold Caretaker

    • Posted

    I noticed some Marlins fans noting that Floro has a tendency to melt down in close games this year, so I did a little bit of digging:

    High Leverage - giving up .864 OPS in 75 PAs

    Medium and low leverage - giving up .692 OPS in 96 PAs

    When within 3 runs - .833 OPS, within 2 runs .853 OPS, within 1 .921 OPS, tie game 1.005 OPS

    When > 4 runs: .604 OPS

    So he's basically pitching like Pagan is, a solid middle reliever with a strong FIP suggesting he can be better, but can't handle high pressure situations.

    34 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

    I can't see how this as awful as most of the comments are making it out to be so far. 

    IMO this trade itself isn't an awful move, the awful part is that this front office turned Cade Povich, Yennier Cano, and 2 lottery tickets into two months of Dylan Floro. Not to mention failing to get Lopez right and receiving a net negative WAR from him. I would bet Floro pitches better than Lopez does the rest of the year so it could turn into a minor win amidst a very bad trade.

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    JD-TWINS

    JD-TWINS 1,531

  • Silver Caretaker

    • Posted

    22 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

    I think this is mostly about getting rid of Lopez. He's been a distraction off the mound, and in addition to some less than stellar pitching, a sometime embarrassment on the mound. He's someone Rocco will only use when he's forced into it. 

    Better for all involved to move on.

     

    Agreed! There was a comment above that we “….can’t count out that Lopez requested a trade”…….more likely we reached out to friendly GM’s and asked them for a trade. Lopez has excellent stuff and got guys out for 2 1/2 months of a 7 year career. Too bad we tried to take advantage of an All-Star being available last July…….probably should have asked WHY? He’s got insecurities and struggles keeping his focus & therefore his command. If we DFA Floro at some point later this year, no big deal as he’s a soon to be free agent. Trying to give Lopez a chance somewhere & maybe we luck into something with Floro? Jorge was not the answer.

    Gotta say, I was just pondering the potential need to trade Jorge Polanco soon due to the infield log jam - saw Jorge & thought my thoughts were answered by FO!

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    big dog

    big dog 3,595

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    • Posted

    I am really glad to move J Lopez, for anything. Time to move on. At this point I'm actually happier to see Pagan come in the game than J Lopez. The Baltimore trade is sunk cost and has nothing to do with this transaction. You spent too much, you bought something that was broken. Do you keep using it because it was expensive? No, you replace it with something that might work better.

    I hope J Lopez can find himself at some point, but we need a better reliever NOW.

    And if we trade for one and drop Floro, I'm still going to think this was a good transaction. In fact I will like it even better.

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    KirbyDome89

    KirbyDome89 4,669

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, Danchat said:

    I noticed some Marlins fans noting that Floro has a tendency to melt down in close games this year, so I did a little bit of digging:

    High Leverage - giving up .864 OPS in 75 PAs

    Medium and low leverage - giving up .692 OPS in 96 PAs

    When within 3 runs - .833 OPS, within 2 runs .853 OPS, within 1 .921 OPS, tie game 1.005 OPS

    When > 4 runs: .604 OPS

    So he's basically pitching like Pagan is, a solid middle reliever with a strong FIP suggesting he can be better, but can't handle high pressure situations.

    Yeesh. That's over half of the bullpen right now. I get wanting to move on from Lopez, he has been terrible, but ideally his spot isn't going to another relief arm that has to be spoon fed low leverage. 

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    LA VIkes Fan

    LA VIkes Fan 5,412

  • Gold Caretaker

    • Posted

    24 minutes ago, big dog said:

    I am really glad to move J Lopez, for anything. Time to move on. At this point I'm actually happier to see Pagan come in the game than J Lopez. The Baltimore trade is sunk cost and has nothing to do with this transaction. You spent too much, you bought something that was broken. Do you keep using it because it was expensive? No, you replace it with something that might work better.

    I hope J Lopez can find himself at some point, but we need a better reliever NOW.

    And if we trade for one and drop Floro, I'm still going to think this was a good transaction. In fact I will like it even better.

    This is the right way to look at things. Trading for Lopez didn't work out. Sunk cost. The worst thing you can do in any kind of business is chase your sunk costs; once they're gone, they're gone.  Movning on was the right call and Florio might be an upgrade.

    We still need a BP upgrade unless we're convinced that Theilbar and Stewart are going to be effective coming back. The suspect part of the bullpen is breaking down. Ortega is just a back of the bullpen guy, Moran is inconsistent and Pagan is well, Pagan. I don't have a great deal of confidence in Winder as more than a mop up/long man. That leaves Jax and Balazovic in a lot of high pressure situations as the bridge to Duran.  Florio probably doesn't help us a lot there. Still need somebody. 

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    JD-TWINS

    JD-TWINS 1,531

  • Silver Caretaker

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, Danchat said:

    I noticed some Marlins fans noting that Floro has a tendency to melt down in close games this year, so I did a little bit of digging:

    High Leverage - giving up .864 OPS in 75 PAs

    Medium and low leverage - giving up .692 OPS in 96 PAs

    When within 3 runs - .833 OPS, within 2 runs .853 OPS, within 1 .921 OPS, tie game 1.005 OPS

    When > 4 runs: .604 OPS

    So he's basically pitching like Pagan is, a solid middle reliever with a strong FIP suggesting he can be better, but can't handle high pressure situations.

    IMO this trade itself isn't an awful move, the awful part is that this front office turned Cade Povich, Yennier Cano, and 2 lottery tickets into two months of Dylan Floro. Not to mention failing to get Lopez right and receiving a net negative WAR from him. I would bet Floro pitches better than Lopez does the rest of the year so it could turn into a minor win amidst a very bad trade.

    Last year is last year IMO. Need not continue to layer trade results from the past - Lopez has problems. Needed to get out from under keeping him the balance of this year & next year.

    We can DFA Florio in 3 weeks if he doesn’t pan out. His stats above suggest he’s a similar guy to Lopez under pressure - not great. Don’t think we acquired him to get better - long shot that happens - got rid of Lopez contract & dark mojo.

    Hood luck to Jorge!

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    ICTwin25

    ICTwin25 83

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I like this trade as we don't really have a good fit for Lopez. Lopez's best numbers are when he pitches in the 9th. Floro's stats are best when he's the set up guy and so far this year, that has been pretty good (2.98 ERA in 7th & 8th inning combined). His career stats have always been that way, but the Marlins have used him a lot more in the 9th this year which is why the stats don't look great. 

    Let Duran be the closer and Jax fills in when he cant go. Let Floro be the set up man. The Jorge Lopez trade didnt work, fine, maybe this is them admitting it and moving on. Rental or not, I am optimistic it works out.

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    insagt1

    insagt1 1,304

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    3 hours ago, Danchat said:

    I noticed some Marlins fans noting that Floro has a tendency to melt down in close games this year, so I did a little bit of digging:

    High Leverage - giving up .864 OPS in 75 PAs

    Medium and low leverage - giving up .692 OPS in 96 PAs

    When within 3 runs - .833 OPS, within 2 runs .853 OPS, within 1 .921 OPS, tie game 1.005 OPS

    When > 4 runs: .604 OPS

    So he's basically pitching like Pagan is, a solid middle reliever with a strong FIP suggesting he can be better, but can't handle high pressure situations.

    IMO this trade itself isn't an awful move, the awful part is that this front office turned Cade Povich, Yennier Cano, and 2 lottery tickets into two months of Dylan Floro. Not to mention failing to get Lopez right and receiving a net negative WAR from him. I would bet Floro pitches better than Lopez does the rest of the year so it could turn into a minor win amidst a very bad trade.

    If this helps a little, as an O's fan too I can tell you that Cano is fading fast. After an incredible first 6 weeks, he is now being hit hard most every outing. Very very few clean innings. They gave him a shot at closing (for some odd reason) last night and he blew the game in the 9th. So Cano may not be any kind of prize, if this keeps up. He may have topped out.

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    jorgenswest

    jorgenswest 6,922

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    3 hours ago, Danchat said:

    I noticed some Marlins fans noting that Floro has a tendency to melt down in close games this year, so I did a little bit of digging:

    High Leverage - giving up .864 OPS in 75 PAs

    Medium and low leverage - giving up .692 OPS in 96 PAs

    When within 3 runs - .833 OPS, within 2 runs .853 OPS, within 1 .921 OPS, tie game 1.005 OPS

    When > 4 runs: .604 OPS

    So he's basically pitching like Pagan is, a solid middle reliever with a strong FIP suggesting he can be better, but can't handle high pressure situations.

    IMO this trade itself isn't an awful move, the awful part is that this front office turned Cade Povich, Yennier Cano, and 2 lottery tickets into two months of Dylan Floro. Not to mention failing to get Lopez right and receiving a net negative WAR from him. I would bet Floro pitches better than Lopez does the rest of the year so it could turn into a minor win amidst a very bad trade.

    Do those OPS numbers have any meaning in that size sample?

    Pagán has four years of negative WPAs. I believe Aaron Gleeman started his WPA since 2020 is the worst in baseball. Floro has a negative WPA this year but it was positive the previous three.

    I would give Floro the ball in high leverage situations before Pagán or Lopez but that is a low bar right now.

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    terrydactyls

    terrydactyls 4,080

  • Gold Caretaker

    • Posted

    11 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

    If this helps a little, as an O's fan too I can tell you that Cano is fading fast. After an incredible first 6 weeks, he is now being hit hard most every outing. Very very few clean innings. They gave him a shot at closing (for some odd reason) last night and he blew the game in the 9th. So Cano may not be any kind of prize, if this keeps up. He may have topped out.

    Wait a minute.  TD commenters don't want reality because it screws up their ranting about the front office.

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    Twodogs

    Twodogs 1,413

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    5 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

    I do like the trade for Lopez's sake, but it doesn't really move the needle for the postseason. 

    The Twins still need at least 2 or 3 more bullpen arms to slot between Jax and Duran, if they want to make any noise. Thielbar and Stewart are nice arms, but not what is needed, in my opinion. Thielbar is effective and a lefty so obviously that is helpful. I actually thought the bullpen would be better this season.

    Is there another young left-handed pitcher in the minors with good stuff and good makeup who the Twins could quickly prepare/promote? 

    Maybe the Twins can identify a couple of AA arms that could be traded away for some bullpen help, then before trading them just put them into their own bullpen and see how they do?  Probably help to avoid trading the next potential All-star

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    Twodogs

    Twodogs 1,413

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, insagt1 said:

    If this helps a little, as an O's fan too I can tell you that Cano is fading fast. After an incredible first 6 weeks, he is now being hit hard most every outing. Very very few clean innings. They gave him a shot at closing (for some odd reason) last night and he blew the game in the 9th. So Cano may not be any kind of prize, if this keeps up. He may have topped out.

    I think he's probably hitting the wall a little, he's already at like 50 innings, I think he only threw 58 innings all year last year and most of them probably pretty low stress.  He could struggle a little from here on out, but end up with 70 innings and next year come back and be dominant again?

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