Article: Twins and Pelfrey Agree to Deal

[h2oface]

Terrry Ryan is open for business, but he shops at one expensive Kmart. Twins' starters will be all right. Not all right, but all right... and since I lean toward the left, it is not good news to me. By the 3rd of 4th game of each series, the opposing teams should have a pretty good rhythm at the plate, especially after they teed off in the first two games. But anything can happen, and I am pretty sure it will.

[Brandon]

I am curious to see if we get another starter and if we make any trades. We seem to be accumulating assets so it makes sense to trade some of them. Overall though I support this signing as I believe Pelfry will have an era in the low 4.00s next year and that will work. I am more concerned about how the lineup improves next year especially since there are no more offensive type catchers available.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

Don't be surprised when my boy Kris Johson surprises the lot of ya in ST and locks down that 5th starter spot.

[Otwins]

For the last couple years I have been reading how the Twins never buy low. Seems to me that Hughes, Kubel and Pelfrey are all solid buy low candidates. Bidding on Tanaka this year is buying at his highest point. Tanaka or Garza were not coming to Minnesota. I think Ryan is doing an excellent job in that we now have major league starters and the depth will improve our bullpen. Since Morneau and Blackburn made about $20 million last year(Hughes, Nolasco money) and Pelfrey re-signed for about a million more than last year we still have money to improve the offense. I don't think TR is close to being done.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

So I assume the Twins are just planning on this or what?

1 Garza

2 Nolasco

3 Arroyo

4 Hughes

5 Pelfrey

[old nurse]

The negotiations with Garza and Arroyo must not be going so well. The sticking point could be years wanted by both sides for the chance to pitch for the Twins.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Terrry Ryan is open for business, but he shops at one expensive Kmart.

 

Best TR analysis of the offseason! Love this quote.

 

BTW: Nobody mentions my guy Swarzak as a candidate for the rotation. Seth writes, "If the Twins do not sign any other starting pitchers or make any trades, Sam Deduno, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Albers, Kris Johnson, Scott Diamond, Vance Worley and Alex Meyer will be competing for the fifth starter job."

 

With good numbers, and no wrestling injuries during Twins Fest this year, he's got as much chance as anyone above as the 5th starter. Swarzak, Diamond, and Worley could rotate as 5th starters/long relievers based upon innings pitched.

[TheLeviathan]

According to the Twins, Duensing is also in the fifth starter competition. The old adage about never having enough pitching should read "good" pitching instead. Not to mention you have a finite number of rosterable spots both on the 25 and 40 man. If this is the move, some clarity on the unsustainable pile of starters on the 40 man is needed.

 

I'd love to not worry about Deduno, Worley, Diamond, and Gibson but I can't when Pelfrey is little better than them. So we lose one of them for wht is difficult to call an upgrade and a player that is older, more expensive, and less likely to be a future contributor.

[Marta Shearing]

I have pelfrey penciled in for 30 wins the next two seasons.

[Marta Shearing]

I look for Correia to have a strong 1st half and bring a decent return in a trade.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not a fan of this one personally, though I won't complain. There was no way we were getting Garza for 2 years.

[Marta Shearing]

At this point I think its absolutely dumb to pursue arroyo. They have plenty of in house candidates to fill the 5th spot. Garza is the only pitcher that makes sense now. Garza, Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, and Correia makes this team division contenders. Especially if they add a bat.

[Boom Boom]

I was waiting for this shoe to drop. I thought it was unusual how TR and Gardy were publically blowing kisses at a free agent.

[Winston Smith]

[Thrylos]

He was nowhere near our best pitcher. Deduno had a 3.60 era. This move is mind boggling. 5-13, 5.19 era, 1.50 whip should not earn a roster spot, let alone a raise and an additional year. For all this tj talk, he had a 5.00 era in august and september. Between deduno, gibson, and meyer we have guys making no money with more upside.

And my last point, war for pitchers makes no sense. Let me provide two examples. Ervin santana has a 2.4 war and had a 3.24 era. Pelfrey's was 2.1 even though he gave up two additional er for every nine innings? the concept of wins above replacement would imply that a pitcher that allows more runs than the league average (like pelfrey) would have a negative war. pelfreys era was roughly the same as the twins starters last year and we ranked 29 out of 30.

 

 

ERA, W-L Thielbar was the best reliever, too, right?

 

Check out his FIP, K%, WAR.

Check out his BABIP and stranded% to figure out why the bloated ERA and WHIP.

 

And I like Pelfrey about as much as Ervin Santana for the $ in this team.

[Thrylos]

Terrry Ryan is open for business, but he shops at one expensive Kmart.

 

Nah. He shops the Adam Levine collection.

[by jiminy]

...But don't forget that the Twins literally ate Blackburn's $5.5 million contract last year...

 

They did??? Awesome! Is that on youtube?

[twinsfan34]

 

 

 

Hilarious!!

 

*Dumpster Diving*

[Othercousin 324]

It's easy to be saracastic and dismissive about this signing- "Iron Mike" I called him because of his penchant for 4 1/2 inning starts. Nonetheless, I think this was the right thing to do. He's relatively young, he can throw some heat, and he's one more year removed from TJ surgery. Let's see what happens.

[Mike Sixel]

Makes no sense with this offense to sign stop gap pitchers. But whatever. My condolences to those that have tickets to games he starts. Unless you like a minute between pitches. I do not understand why they would be willing to do this, when they have plenty of mediocre starters, but no LF, no DH, no catcher, no CF they can count on.

[kemics]

Not sure if this was mentioned in the previous posts but, Mike Pelfrey was once a top prospect. Drafted #9 overall in 2005 and made his debut just over a year later. He clearly has talent, I see pitchers tend to have a few different arcs, he's been decent in the past, and should be decent again. Despite his size he'll never be a K guy.

 

He has had some good years in the past:

 

2008 13-11 3.72 ERA in 200.2 innings

2010 15-9 3.66 ERA in 204 innings

2011 7-13 4.74 ERA in 193.2 innings.

 

2012 he started decently before Elbow problems. It takes 2 years to fully recover from TJ as we all know, throw out last year as a recovery year and I think we could be looking at something around the 2011 Mike Pelfrey if given a fair shake, upside of 2008 or 2010 and I'll take that from our #4 or #5 starter.

 

As for Diamond, Gibson, Swarzak, Worley, and Deduno. I believe Gibson needs a chance to finally realize his potential and this could be the year. Swarzak should be in the pen, Is Correia really carved in stone as a starter? I don't see any reason why Worley couldn't challenge for a rotational spot.

 

As for Diamond and Deduno, one of them should be the LR or spot starter, I really like how Deduno looked last year, it might be time to cut loose diamond, maybe trade him for a mid level MI prospect that might be able to be util guy later in his career.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Arroyo as a pitcher who NEVER misses a start and has 9 STRAIGHT YEARS of 200+ IP is not:

a has been,

a never was,

or a run of the mill.

 

He would set a nice example to the rest of the rotation on preparedness and professionalism. Pelfrey is only acceptable as the #5 man in the rotation and as cheap trade bait back to the NL should he start the season strong.

 

Arroyo career: 4.19 ERA 4.39 xFIP...... In 10 full-time seasons, 1 with an ERA over 5.00.

Pelphrey career: 4.48 ERA 4.50 xFIP..... In 6 full-time seasons, 3 with an ERA over 5.00

 

On the other hand, Arroyo is bordering not only on a substantial decline phase for most pitchers, he's nearing the point where many pitchers completely implode and retire shortly thereafter.

 

Is Arroyo different? Possibly, but unlikely. The better question is "who's the smaller risk?"

 

And at this point, that's probably Mike Pelfrey. It's definitely Mike Pelfrey once you factor in money and years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Before I get criticized for being negative, I will say that Kubel was a good signing.

 

This however, is atrociously terrible. I do not understand any defense of signing Mike Pelfrey to a two-year deal. And for those who say that he was the best Twins starter in 2013 . . . . Correia and Deduno were the two best. Case closed.

 

Correia was definitely better than Pelfrey. Deduno... Well, he didn't pitch much but when he did, he was better than Pelfrey.

 

The question here shouldn't be Mike Pelfrey's 2013 stat line and whether it was good enough to stick in a rotation. It wasn't. The question here is whether Mike Pelfrey's 2014 will resemble the second half of 2013 or 2013 as a whole.

 

The guy was coming back from TJS and after being horrible in the first three months of the season, he rebounded and put together a decent second half before tailing off in September (as guys who miss a full season are wont to do as they wear down). Can he repeat that over an entire season? Hard to say.

 

This is a decent buy low signing. It's Nick Blackburn money on a guy who has the potential to be a solid #4/5 guy if he can repeat his second half. He's not old. His put up decent strikeout numbers, though nothing to get too excited about.

 

On the other hand, I'd just as soon see Worley, Deduno, and Diamond compete for his spot in the rotation. The signing is pretty "meh" to me overall but I think it's a better signing than Arroyo at $30m+ and three years. While Mike Pelfrey is a risk, I think you can basically write off Arroyo's third season and $10m because he's going to be 40 years old and, in all likelihood, completely useless as a starter by that point.

[thetank]

I doubt Pelfrey is going to get any better than he was last year.

[Joe A. Preusser]

ERA Predictions for the coming year:

 

Pelfrey - 3.87

Nolasco - 4.19

Hughes - 3.96

Correia - 4.56

5th Starter - 4.44

 

That will drop our team SP ERA over a point in one year.

[goulik]

ERA Predictions for the coming year:

 

Pelfrey - 3.87

Nolasco - 4.19

Hughes - 3.96

Correia - 4.56

5th Starter - 4.44

 

That will drop our team SP ERA over a point in one year.

 

I like the optimism but I would love to see a Twins pitcher with less than a 3.50 ERA...

[Brock Beauchamp]

I doubt Pelfrey is going to get any better than he was last year.

 

Coming off TJS in record time, pitching horribly in the first half before putting together a mediocre 2-3 month stretch... Really, you don't think he'll be any better than he was last season?

[Joe A. Preusser]

I like the optimism but I would love to see a Twins pitcher with less than a 3.50 ERA...

 

Meyer 2015 ERA - 3.11

Meyer 2016 ERA - 2.92

 

How's that for optimism?

[Riverbrian]

ERA Predictions for the coming year:

 

Pelfrey - 3.87

Nolasco - 4.19

Hughes - 3.96

Correia - 4.56

5th Starter - 4.44

 

That will drop our team SP ERA over a point in one year.

 

I'll go with:

 

Nolasco 3.40

Hughes 4.60

Correia 4.05

Pelfrey 4.20

Deduno 3.10

[johnnydakota]

I'll go with:

 

Nolasco 3.40

Hughes 4.60

Correia 4.05

Pelfrey 4.20

Deduno 3.10

 

So each and every pitcher will best there career averages for ERA,except Hughes who has a 4.53 career ERA,Hope you right