Austin Martin Has Reached A Crossroads

[Cody Pirkl]

It has been years since Austin Martin’s pedigree as the 5th overall pick in the 2020 draft has carried much weight. His stock declined almost immediately, resulting in his trade to Minnesota. As his struggles continued, there was hope that he still had a future as a right-handed-hitting role player in a lineup that desperately needed one. His stock seems to have plummeted even further in 2026, however, leaving significant questions about where Martin sits in 2027.

In theory, Austin Martin should be a very valuable player, even as a pure weak-side platoon/bench option. Right-handed hitting outfielders have become increasingly difficult to find in recent years, and finding a productive one has been even tougher. For much of recorded baseball history, right-handed hitters took a healthy majority of at-bats compared to left-handed hitters. In 2026, that split was essentially 50/50. Meanwhile, right-handed-hitting outfielders specifically had their weakest offensive season since 1974, posting around league-average production overall.

The problem is that Austin Martin fell well within this group of historically bad right-handed-hitting outfielders in 2026. After Matt Wallner was demoted to St. Paul on May 14 and being given an everyday job, Martin slashed .173/.276/.254 for the rest of the season. His overall production on the year was only slightly below league average, and his defense graded out positively, but the way he finished at the plate was impossible to overlook.

In a perfect world, the Twins have Byron Buxton playing nearly every day in center field, Luke Keaschall playing every day in a corner spot, and the left-handed hitting duo of Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins playing regularly against right-handed pitching. This leaves a small but important role for a right-handed hitter, who will need to be trusted to perform against left-handed pitching while still providing passable defense. Martin’s competition in 2027 is fairly modest, at least right now. 

Gabriel Gonzalez is a former top 100-ish prospect himself, though he is not well thought of defensively and struggled at the plate in 2026 even at the Triple-A level. Ben Ross tore up Double-A and Triple-A offensively and offers the speed and athleticism of Austin Martin, as well as the ability to play in the infield if needed. The Twins didn’t feel obligated to give him much playing time down the stretch, making it worth wondering how much they believe in him, even as a bench bat. Ryan Kriedler may have been the team’s best defensive shortstop and backup center fielder last year, but the bat will always be a major weak spot in a lineup if he gets anything close to everyday playing time.

 

The other risk is the Twins simply going out and buying a more trustworthy right-handed hitting outfielder if they don’t want to gamble on this group. The options are admittedly thin in free agency, and those who are worthy candidates such as Randy Arozarena and Seiya Suzuki will likely be cost-prohibitive. It’s also worth noting that most of the current internal candidates have minor league options remaining, including Austin Martin himself.

Perhaps the Twins could consider trading Martin if their faith in his development has run out. With the historic lack of quality right-handed outfielders in baseball, perhaps a team would at least give up something to acquire him and try to get him on track themselves, though the return would be far from noteworthy. The bigger benefit would be clearing a 40-man spot if the Twins are truly ready to move on so they can give that opportunity to someone else.

The hope was that, heading into 2027, Austin Martin would at least have a leg up on the internal candidates for an opening day roster spot. After how his 2026 season ended, it’s difficult to make that argument. Now 27 years old, Austin Martin has left many questions about his ability to produce in the MLB unanswered. He’s approaching a crossroads where the team would be justified in moving on to younger, more promising candidates to sink or swim in this role.

Austin Martin’s role for the 2027 season ranges from regular playing time on the opening day roster to not being with the organization at all. Should the team give him one last chance? Should they utilize his remaining minor league option to make him earn his way back? Should they cut ties altogether? Let us know below!

 

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

As Newman famously said to Elaine and Kramer:  " and yet the bicycle can have only one rightful owner. Quite the conundrum."  "Alright, let's begin.... Ohh my cocoa is ready".

[Linus]

They should probably keep him as a 5th outfielder (not a platoon partner). Compared to GG, Martin can play decent defense and run a little. I don’t think they should sign a right handed outfielder now as you want Jenkins, EmRod and Keaschall to play a lot. Martin is another Falvey miss. Beware of guys who walk a lot in the minors but don’t have any power or swing and miss a lot. Big league pitchers will quickly take away their only positive attribute. 

[Ricky Vaughn]

If he had better baseball instincts I'd say keep him another year. However he makes so many bone headed plays I just don't think he can improve much. 

[Patzky]

21 minutes ago, Linus said:

They should probably keep him as a 5th outfielder (not a platoon partner). Compared to GG, Martin can play decent defense and run a little. I don’t think they should sign a right handed outfielder now as you want Jenkins, EmRod and Keaschall to play a lot. Martin is another Falvey miss. Beware of guys who walk a lot in the minors but don’t have any power or swing and miss a lot. Big league pitchers will quickly take away their only positive attribute. 

Saying the final goodbye to our LH outfielders will more than guarantee a spot for Martin. We adore familiarity. 

[SE23]

Martin can at least be stashed in St Paul next spring and serve as depth and injury backup. There's still a (slight) chance he figures it out enough to be near league average with the bat. I doubt that Ross is the answer, but he will have another year to prove me wrong.

Looking through the farm rosters, it's hard to see who the next RH hitting outfielder might be. Diaw? Olivar? Fragoza? Winokur? Mercedes?

Caden Kendle finished the season in Wichita on a serious heater. Fluke?

[old nurse]

Gonzales was highly ranked as a low minor league player.  It means nothing now. He had potential, he isn’t reaching it.  

[dxpavelka]

Martin looked good on paper when he was traded for because he projected as a high on base middle infielder with  decent glove.  Now he projects, at best, as an average on base guy with five career home runs who is relegated to corner outfield spots on a team with a ton of such guys with much better power and potential.  Been saying for five years that we traded away the best pitcher we have developed internally in a generation for basically nothing.  Berrios' recent issues / struggles notwithstanding.  And, FYI:  Berrios WAR as a Blue Jay:  7.1; Woods Richardson & Martin combined:  3.1

[tony&rodney]

Austin Martin still makes sense as a 5th outfielder. As noted in the article the Twins have Rodriguez, Jenkins, Buxton, and Keaschall set already. Gonzalez is still a work in progress and more of a DH, similar to Mendez. Kendle, Winokur, and Mercedes are not in the conversation for another two years. Arozarena hits but doesn't field and Suzuki is going to be expensive (like Randy) and Keaschall is my bet for RF.

Signing a RH bat might make some sense but trading for someone can also work. I'm ready for a few changes. Despite being told by the experts on this site that none of Ober, Kremer, Matthews, Roden, Larnach, or Lewis have any value, it is possible a team is interested. Martin was a promising reserve just a few years ago, similar to Jordan Lawlar in some ways. Arizona is looking for SP, LF, 1B, and DH. Lawlar is a talent that teams do not like to move (Julien and Lewis in November of 2023), but he is not ticketed to start, but rather there is hope that he pushes for playing time as a 4th outfielder. I understand that many find it ridiculous that Lawlar can be traded but Ober or Kremer, Roden, and Larnach would fit Arizona needs.

November is coming soon and we shall soon see if the Twins are going to roll it back again with one signing and hope that players like Lewis, Larnach, and others figure it out or whether the Zoll crew jump into the fray and gamble a bit.

Either way, there is a place in MLB for Austin Martin. 

[stringer bell]

I had visions of Austin Martin becoming the Twins' version of Steven Kwan--good OBP, plus base running and good defense--and despite a really good April, he just wasn't up to it. He has definitely improved as a defender, but he would only be categorized as "above average". He has good, but not elite, speed and that hasn't translated to being an asset on the base paths. The OBP heavy hitting isn't quite average and he really struggled against right handed pitching.

Maybe he can add to his game. As mentioned, he has improved dramatically on defense. Maybe he can improve on the bases. He was only successful on 60% of his steal attempts. Royce Lewis has a lower sprint speed, but was successful on 16 of 17 attempts, so he should be fast enough to get over the acceptable 75% success rate. 

Much has been made of trying to change his swing while he was in the minors. Maybe the Twins were right, they tried to get more power from his swing and if would have average power instead of being in the bottom 20% in slugging, the bar would be lower for him to contribute with the existing defense and base running.

Martin has an option remaining which gives him more valueto the Twins and anyone who might want to acquire him. The player who was on the team for the entire year needs to be better to secure a spot on the Twins team.

[Brandon]

He is still pre-arbitration, we can keep him as a 5th OF and pinch runner.  I would be disappointed if he gets more than 200AB and less than 15 SB next season.

[MeleMouth]

Austin Martin is not a primary topic of planning. He keeps his job until someone better comes along, at which time he could be sent to St. Paul or even dropped from the 40-man. All planning should be about finding that better player. Until that better player comes along, little to no energy should be spent on trying to trade Austin Martin, because the return would be small.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Patzky said:

Saying the final goodbye to our LH outfielders will more than guarantee a spot for Martin. We adore familiarity. 

Even when bad.

[Andy MacPhail]

Martin is another victim of poorly evaluated & developed promising prospects that has plagued this organization for years, My evaluation is a promising quick, contact hitting 2Bman. Instead of finding his strengths & focus on them in development in who is, they tried developing him into someone he wasn't. You can check my blog Twins Failed 2B & Hitting Philosophy Has Failed Martin - Twins 2B Failed Philosophy - Twins Daily   After every stage of doing this he has rebound to his original self. before platooning him in '26, he faced 2X as many RHPs & has had very good splits. Baseball has always clamored that his OPS was too low even while his OBP was crazy. high. Martin is a very good contact hitter with good ABs, those hitters usually don't fall into big slumps. So, what happened to Martin? After eliminating many options, IMO, after sending Wallner down they wanted to increase Martin's slugging & tinkered with his swing again.

Martin never fitted into the Twins failed HR above all philosophy. Since Polanco got hurt, we have suffered greatly at 2B, especially defensively. If Martin was evaluated & developed correctly, we'd have had an elite 2Bman the last few years. Eventually, IMO, Martin would have been squeezed out of 2B & OF, but at last we'd have a decent player to trade & get something back. IMO, Martin will regain his swing again & be a good platoon player. Maybe after that we'd trade him for something. Besides Twins losing out, they have wasted many years of Martin's career & that's sad.  Twins past failed philosophies has been a lose/lose situation.

 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

 FYI:  Berrios WAR as a Blue Jay:  7.1; Woods Richardson & Martin combined:  3.1

Berrios WAR as a Blue Jay during the seasons of team control the Twins traded away: 0.8. The extension he signed with the Blue Jays is irrelevant

[Fatbat]

Hopefully A.Martin gets off to a strong start in ‘27 so his stock rises and he can be in a trade package in July when M. Houston gets called up. Then Clemons can move to super util/IF/OF. 

[DocBauer]

The primary OF for 2027 will/should be Rodriguez, Buxton, Jenkins, and Keaschall. They will all four play most days between the 3 OF spots and DH. 

The 5th OF...quasi 4th OF...should be Roden. And he should also be worked as a backup 1B to increase his roster flexibility.  (Guys get hurt and also need days off).  Roden is the better player over Martin...IMO...and RHP still makes up 70-75% of the league.

Because he has no options, I'm betting on Kreidler as the Super Utility option. And he can provide a RH OF option if you really want. I'm hoping Ross eventually replaces him as he plays the exact same spots, is younger, and would seem to have a better offensive profile. But that also includes the ability to play OF. 

I just don't see the need to keep a 3rd RH OF just because he is, when he's only got a mediocre/questionable bat. Martin should be deprh at St Paul unless they just decide to move on. 

[bjorks]

Martin (and I'd argue Lewis) as some have pointed out is the failure of the Twins system to properly develop hitters. While Lewis seems flat out stubborn, Martin is a shell of what he appeared able to become while at Vandy. While there and w/TOR he projected to be low DD HRs, speed, and had a chance to be somewhere if it all clicked .270/.325/.415 type guy and he's literally none of those. He was the.best "collegiate bat" in the draft.

I'd like to say Chris Martin is the largest bust of the R1, esp. at #5, but 2020 was not a good year in general. Not that we drafted Martin, but look at the top 5 rounds of our '20 draft class, ouch. Sabato(1), Soularie (2); Raya (4); K. Rosario (5).

 

 

[tony&rodney]

So many options on the table. Will Zoll make some moves? 

Austin Martin is ok. Doctor Gast has long been upset at how Martin was used/developed by the Twins. Every team has players who just don't seem to fit or blossom as one would hope.

Alan Roden is also a good player and he might learn to play first base too. There may also be some value for other teams in acquiring Roden.

Royce Lewis might be a guy the Twins find hard to slide away from due to an addiction to the 2017 talent.

These things are hard to guess but I'm hoping the status quo or habit of rolling back the same team can be avoided.

Jake Bauers is an intriguing player for the Twins. He can play first base or fill as needed in the OF/DH. This season was an outlier for him. i would think Milwaukee wants him back. He hits the ball, takes a walk, and plays defense. The down side are the strike outs.

Brandon Lowe is older, more established, and will also be more expensive. Pittsburgh (big spenders) will want him back. 

The Twins have options. I'm not too worried about Austin Martin because he is a good enough baseball player to get another shot if the Twins move on from him.

[TopGunn#22]

It's painfully obvious that it is time to move on from a bevy of Twins players,  They have all had substantial opportunity and have shown us who they are.  There are always players in every organization who fail to live up to their initial expectations.  It's time for the Twins to give those players an opportunity elsewhere and take a chance on some other teams "disappointment.'  

The tale of a fresh start in a different place has been told in the past and should be told again.  Guys like Catcher Henry Davis from the Pirates and Jordan Lawler from the D-Backs are a couple I'd go after if those teams were willing to listen.