Have the 2026 Twins Overachieved, Underachieved, or Somewhere In Between?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

For most of the 2026 season, the Minnesota Twins have been difficult to categorize. They aren't rebuilding in the traditional sense, but they also haven't played like a team expected to seriously contend for the American League pennant. Instead, they have bounced between those descriptions, showing flashes of a team capable of making noise while also reminding everyone why expectations were modest entering the season.

Have they overachieved? In some areas, absolutely. Have they simply performed about where they were expected to? That's probably the most accurate description of their overall record. And have certain players and areas of the roster underachieved? Without question.

With the final month approaching, it's worth taking a step back and looking at the big picture.

The Twins Have Overachieved in Some Important Areas

The easiest way to argue that the Twins have overachieved is to remember where this team started. Pablo López was supposed to anchor the rotation. Instead, he suffered an injury during spring training, forcing Minnesota to adjust its plans before the season even began. Losing a pitcher of López's caliber could have sent the rotation into a tailspin.

Taj Bradley deserves credit for helping stabilize things. There were plenty of questions about what the Twins would get from him, but Bradley has looked better than many anticipated. He hasn't needed to replace López, but his performance has helped a rotation that entered the year with plenty of uncertainty.

There have been pleasant surprises on the position-player side, too. Kody Clemens and Brooks Lee have both reached the 20-home-run mark, providing considerably more power than many expected.

The offense as a whole deserves credit. For much of the first half, Minnesota sat near the top of the American League in runs scored, thanks in large part to its success with runners in scoring position. That was certainly not expected entering the season. 

Then there was the bullpen. For much of the first half, Minnesota's relief corps was one of the team's biggest weaknesses. Yet the Twins continued finding ways to stay competitive while trying to patch together innings late in games. The front office eventually addressed that weakness rather than accepting it as an organizational limitation.

Minnesota has dealt with injuries, inconsistent pitching, bullpen issues and offensive slumps. They haven't always responded perfectly, but they have continued finding ways to remain relevant.

For the Most Part, the Twins Have Achieved

Here's where the preseason projections become important. The Twins are on pace to finish with a win total in the mid-to-high 70s, roughly where many projection systems expected them to land. That provides important context for evaluating the season.

The reason some people believe Minnesota has overachieved isn't necessarily because the team has dramatically exceeded its preseason projections. It's because expectations changed after the 2025 trade deadline.

The Twins' fire sale last summer fundamentally altered the perception of the organization. Minnesota moved established major-league talent and appeared to be positioning itself for a longer rebuild. It was easy to look at the 2026 roster and assume the team would struggle significantly.

Instead, the Twins have spent most of the season hanging around the American League playoff picture. That's the part that feels like an overachievement. The actual win total? Probably not.

Minnesota has taken a roundabout path to get there. There have been stretches when the Twins looked like one of the better teams in the league and others when they looked like exactly what preseason projections predicted: a flawed team with significant holes and an uncertain future.

That's probably the most honest description of this season. The Twins have achieved what they were projected to accomplish, but they've done it in a way that has been more interesting than expected.

A 78-win team buried in the standings feels very different from a 78-win team fighting for a playoff spot in September. The latter gives the organization something to build upon.

The Twins Have Underachieved in Some Key Areas

There are also legitimate reasons to believe the Twins could have been better. Matt Wallner and Royce Lewis are the most obvious examples. Both entered the season as important pieces of Minnesota's offensive core, but both scuffled badly enough to be sent to Triple-A.

Lewis has returned to the majors and played well, which changes the outlook considerably. Still, his struggles and time in the minors are significant when evaluating the season.

The same is true of Wallner. The Twins needed production from both players and expected them to become reliable middle-of-the-order contributors. Instead, Minnesota had to find production elsewhere while they worked through their struggles.

The rotation has also fallen short of expectations. López's injury changed the equation, and he was joined on the injured list by Mick Abel, David Festa and even Joe Ryan. Minnesota has spent the year searching for consistency behind its healthier arms. There have been good individual performances, but the group hasn't always provided the dependable innings a playoff team needs.

The bullpen is another obvious example. The fact that Minnesota eventually improved that unit doesn't erase how much of a problem it was for much of the season. Too many games were put in jeopardy because the Twins couldn't consistently turn a lead over to reliable relief pitching.

There has also been an uneven development curve among some of the younger players. Lee has provided inconsistent offensive production, while Luke Keaschall has struggled defensively. That's part of the deal with inexperienced players, but those growing pains become more noticeable when a team is competing for a playoff spot.

It's one thing to watch a young player struggle on a 65-win team. It's another when those struggles could be the difference between playing in October and watching the postseason from home.

The (Not So) Final Verdict

Ultimately, the Twins' 2026 season doesn't fit neatly into one category. They have overachieved relative to the expectations created by last year's trade deadline. They have achieved relative to many of their preseason projections. And they have underachieved in several areas where individual players were expected to take significant steps forward.

All three things can be true. The most important development is that Minnesota has given itself a reason to care about September. That wasn't necessarily guaranteed when the calendar flipped to 2026.

The Twins now have a better idea of which young players are ready to be part of the next competitive roster, which veterans can help them get there and which weaknesses still need to be addressed.

Maybe that's the biggest accomplishment of all. The Twins haven't been perfect. They haven't been dominant. They haven't even been consistently good. But they have been competitive. And after where this organization stood a year ago, that's a pretty important place to start.

---

Have the Twins overachieved, underachieved, or landed somewhere in the middle? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

View full article

[dberthia]

If you just step back and look only at their record, they're about where I expected them to be. It only "feels" slightly better this year because the AL has crapped the bed, Royce & Lee are getting better, and Culpepper is bringing some hope for the future. In most other years we would've been eliminated already despite the improvements.

[Patzky]

Are you not entertained?

🙂

 

The way we get to the expected record is the way we perceive satisfaction with it. There were folks seriously predicting a 100 loss season; at least that's off the table. As recently as in Seattle, a game over .500, we felt good about our team, good about our chances. The growing pains seemed to have been addressed.

The Hardest Part of the Schedule has slapped us in the face, given us a dose of reality. Or broke the illusion mirror.

Ask us now if we're a slightly above .500 team and everyone except one stalwart fan will laugh. 💩 😦😤

 

[TheLeviathan]

If memory serves this team was slated for low 70s win totals by most of the major gambling institutions.  Right now they are on pace for 77ish wins.  So I think it's safe to say they have slightly over-achieved to this point.  

Slight overachievement is great and then we confused that with having made big strides and being contenders.  Which, coming off an aggressive move to sell and remodel the team last year at the deadline, is sorta like deciding after you mash and puree your potatoes you want to make hashbrowns.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Hey, this year is actually been a fairly successful continuance of the tryout camp/rebuild on-the-fly the Twins have been doing since August 1 of last year. Losing Lopez was a major gut punch as was watching Ryan's second-half fade yet again, and in a huge shock Buxton is hurt again along with about half of our projected starting pitching. Still, despite all this stuff, the team has actually been somewhat competitive and entertaining. 75-78 wins sounds just about right.

I do think we've made some real progress. We start next year's infield starting most nights and Kriedler is a perfectly acceptable utility infielder/26th man who can play a good defensive shortstop. You have to have one of those guys. I think were actually going to have a pretty good rotation next year with Lopez, Ryan, Bradley, and two of Prielipp, Kremer, Ober, Matthews, Abel, and Rojas. The bullpen is now respectable, not great but respectable, and could be a strength if we re-sign Minter and don't have a lot of injuries. We still lack bullpen depth but maybe a couple of the starting candidates who don't make the rotation can provide that depth. Catching could be a real weak spot next year if we don't re-sign Jeffers. The Outfield is still very unsettled. I hope we at least give Jenkins and ERod look this year see if they can fill the a corner  spot next to Keaschall and Buxton and provide the CF depth we need behind Buxton. I think all things considered, next year's team could be an 80 – 85 win team if these parts all come together and we don't have an extraordinary number of injuries. 

This team is a work in progress. We made some progress this year and if things keep moving forward, we could easily be an 83 – 87 win kind of team next year. I could also be way too optimistic and we can fall off the table. I think the best news is that we are not dependent on one or two guys stepping up to be decent. There's enough depth that we can actually withstand growing pains from some of the young players, off years, injuries, etc. and still be reasonably competitive in 2027. Now, if we can only find a catcher once Jeffers leaves . . .

[mikelink45]

They are in neutral which is really tough.  The team did not want to completely rebuild so we seem to have found a middle ground and sometimes that is the hardest place to get out of.  Not trading Larnach and Ryan kept us at 500 - do we want to be there even if the rest of the league seems like it is on a treadmill? 

We are worse than the record of all five Eastern Division teams. We are third in our own crappy division and 4 games behind second place Cleveland with 28 games left. The West division is also lousy and still we would be tied for third place. 

Mediocre is not enough.  Could calling up Walker and having him instead of slumping Larnach have helped this year?  We worry about the 40 man roster on a team that is struggling like this?   

We didn't trade Ryan, but Ryan has a second half record that gives us no confidence.

My point is that it has been an enjoyable season - watching them sweep the Braves before being taught a lesson by Phillies and A's.  But I would really like to see a team that has a winning record and actually belongs in the playoffs next year. 

My grade for the team for this year is C-.  My grade for the front office is D, For the manager B. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Bullpen - overachieved

Bats -  slightly above expectation

Starting pitching -  met expectations

The team just seems to be hitting a wall.   They had consistently held in the middle of the pack for a team that many expected to be a bottom 5 team in the league.  

[Woof Bronzer]

A 78-win team buried in the standings feels very different from a 78-win team fighting for a playoff spot in September. The latter gives the organization something to build upon.

No, it doesn't.  A 78-win team is a 78-win team.  The fact that the rest of the AL was so bad that 78 wins is within shouting distance of the playoffs has absolutely nothing to do with the quality of this team and its future outlook.  They don't need to build on 2026.  "Building on 2026" sounds like an offseason where they "run it back again" for the 3rd straight offseason and just sign two 35 year old relievers on 1 year deals in mid-January and call it a day.   It was a terrible strategy this offseason and it will be even worse next offseason.  

Maybe that's the biggest accomplishment of all. The Twins haven't been perfect. They haven't been dominant. They haven't even been consistently good. But they have been competitive. And after where this organization stood a year ago, that's a pretty important place to start.

The "accomplishment" being described and celebrated here has a name:  mediocrity.  

But they have been competitive. 

So competitive, in fact, that yesterday, in an extraordinarily important game to the team's playoff chances, the team decided to start in CF a concrete gloved infielder, and to roster an injured player who was not available to play, while the best prospect they've had in a quarter century who also happens to play CF rots away in AAA.  There is absolutely nothing "competitive" about this organization.  

[Mike Sixel]

38 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

If memory serves this team was slated for low 70s win totals by most of the major gambling institutions.  Right now they are on pace for 77ish wins.  So I think it's safe to say they have slightly over-achieved to this point.  

Slight overachievement is great and then we confused that with having made big strides and being contenders.  Which, coming off an aggressive move to sell and remodel the team last year at the deadline, is sorta like deciding after you mash and puree your potatoes you want to make hashbrowns.

Iirc, fangraphs predicted 79 as the most likely outcome?

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

A 78-win team buried in the standings feels very different from a 78-win team fighting for a playoff spot in September. The latter gives the organization something to build upon.

No, it doesn't.  A 78-win team is a 78-win team.  The fact that the rest of the AL was so bad that 78 wins is within shouting distance of the playoffs has absolutely nothing to do with the quality of this team and its future outlook.  They don't need to build on 2026.  "Building on 2026" sounds like an offseason where they "run it back again" for the 3rd straight offseason and just sign two 35 year old relievers on 1 year deals in mid-January and call it a day.   It was a terrible strategy this offseason and it will be even worse next offseason.  

Maybe that's the biggest accomplishment of all. The Twins haven't been perfect. They haven't been dominant. They haven't even been consistently good. But they have been competitive. And after where this organization stood a year ago, that's a pretty important place to start.

The "accomplishment" being described and celebrated here has a name:  mediocrity.  

But they have been competitive. 

So competitive, in fact, that yesterday, in an extraordinarily important game to the team's playoff chances, the team decided to start in CF a concrete gloved infielder, and to roster an injured player who was not available to play, while the best prospect they've had in a quarter century who also happens to play CF rots away in AAA.  There is absolutely nothing "competitive" about this organization.  

I wish I could heart this a hundred times. 

[TheLeviathan]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Iirc, fangraphs predicted 79 as the most likely outcome?

Hush, I'm trying to be nice.

[Vanimal46]

I was one of the fans that thought the Twins would be an easy 90+ loss team last offseason. So they have overachieved in that aspect. The bullpen was downright awful at the beginning of the season, then our fortunes changed a bit when Yoendrys Gomez was presented on a silver platter from Tampa. As well as converting Morris to the pen - which it appears he may be running out of gas now. 

The Twins achieved some goals I had in mind for this season. We needed to find out once and for all if some of these 25-28 year old players should be counted on for future Twins teams. We needed to sift through a ton of bullpen arms to find 2-3 building blocks. 

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I was one of the fans that thought the Twins would be an easy 90+ loss team last offseason. So they have overachieved in that aspect. The bullpen was downright awful at the beginning of the season, then our fortunes changed a bit when Yoendrys Gomez was presented on a silver platter from Tampa. As well as converting Morris to the pen - which it appears he may be running out of gas now. 

The Twins achieved some goals I had in mind for this season. We needed to find out once and for all if some of these 25-28 year old players should be counted on for future Twins teams. We needed to sift through a ton of bullpen arms to find 2-3 building blocks. 

We certainly learned Martin and Roden are backups. Morris and Gomez are good, though RP is unstable year over year often. Bradley is legit. Lee and Culpeper likely are. Clemens is a backup on a good team. Keaschell can hit but not field. 

Those are the things we learned. I think. 

I still think the jury is out on Lewis. Buxton can't be relied on, so one of your everyday OF besides him needs to be a legit CF..... You basically must have three legit starting OF in addition to him on the roster. 

We also learned this organization has learned nothing about playing with a short bench. 

[Blyleven2011]

I never expected the team to contend or be competitive coming out of spring training …

what I like about this team is they have more fight in them than past seasons but still lack that killer instinct to be consistent  …

some of our 2026 players have shown something for the future , there are some players in AAA that could possibly help ( e rod or Gonzales ) on 40 man roster , walker could help but isn’t on the 40 man roster and won’t be until the 2027 is resumed after strike / lockout , he’ll be playing minor league ball until baseball resumes …

Culpepper has added some promise , showing more power than Kirby pucketts rookie season , let’s watch him and be happy …

the front office didn’t do anything to make this a competitive team , the league of mediocrity has made this a competitive team . 

[RpR]

31 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Bullpen - overachieved

Bats -  slightly above expectation

Starting pitching -  met expectations

The team just seems to be hitting a wall.   They had consistently held in the middle of the pack for a team that many expected to be a bottom 5 team in the league.  

Leaving a pitcher in too long lost some games; poor defense lost some games.  Had those games not been lost the Twins current record would be better to the point that the pessimism would be less at least to some.

[Chad93]

The Twin's are a rebuilding team that looks very average because the AL in general is way down in my opinion they should have continued the rebuild specifically trading Jeffers now are they going to resign him or just lose him for nothing? 

[LastOnePicked]

Here's a decent benchmark: attendance.

Twins set a record for low attendance last year. This year they're running 3% below last year's totals. If the goal was to boost fan interest, they have clearly underachieved. 

Ownership said it's a "win-now" era. Fans didn't believe it and the team certainly hasn't proven them wrong.

[RpR]

9 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Here's a decent benchmark: attendance.

Twins set a record for low attendance last year. This year they're running 3% below last year's totals. If the goal was to boost fan interest, they have clearly underachieved. 

Ownership said it's a "win-now" era. Fans didn't believe it and the team certainly hasn't proven them wrong.

I used to grumble about the Twins teams of the Seventies, well,  those years are looking a lot better now.☢️

[thelanges5]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

We certainly learned Martin and Roden are backups. Morris and Gomez are good, though RP is unstable year over year often. Bradley is legit. Lee and Culpeper likely are. Clemens is a backup on a good team. Keaschell can hit but not field. 

Those are the things we learned. I think. 

I still think the jury is out on Lewis. Buxton can't be relied on, so one of your everyday OF besides him needs to be a legit CF..... You basically must have three legit starting OF in addition to him on the roster. 

We also learned this organization has learned nothing about playing with a short bench. 

Learned that Ryan is not a 2nd half pitcher. Like to learn more about Jenkins and E-Rod. 

[Vanimal46]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

We certainly learned Martin and Roden are backups. Morris and Gomez are good, though RP is unstable year over year often. Bradley is legit. Lee and Culpeper likely are. Clemens is a backup on a good team. Keaschell can hit but not field. 

Those are the things we learned. I think. 

I still think the jury is out on Lewis. Buxton can't be relied on, so one of your everyday OF besides him needs to be a legit CF..... You basically must have three legit starting OF in addition to him on the roster. 

We also learned this organization has learned nothing about playing with a short bench. 

I'll also add that we learned Wallner won't be a part of the future here, and I think Austin Martin is probably in the same boat. Agreed on Lewis, still on the fence about him, but I still lean towards not giving up on him yet. 

The short bench is really killing us right now... The FO is the big under achiever at this moment. August is just about to wrap up and Alex Jackson has 1 PA all month. It defies all logic. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I agree that this team feels different than the normal 78 win team but that has nothing to do with us. Feels different because his seven pennies actually makes one competitive in the AL Wildcard race this year and is somewhat competitive for the Division title. I don't think we can take any credit for the mediocrity which surrounds us. And alas, it appears that brief moment of being competitive is now over.

Sale, to me this team feels better for two reasons. First, 78 wins is what I predicted but I thought I was being wildly optimistic. Now, I may be close to the team has improved much more than I expected. Second, while they didn't go for a full rebuild they did develop some players this year that should be roster/lineup mainstays going forward. Keaschall will start in one of the corner outfield spots (hopefully LF), Culpepper is the starting SS unless moved off to 2B by Houston in a year or two, Lee looks to have locked down 3B for the foreseeable future, and Clemens can be a power hitting, adequate fielding 2B until Houston is ready to move Culpepper over to that spot. Great stopgap for now. On the pitching side, both Morris and Gomez look like bullpen stalwarts for the next few years. Bradley has been a revelation – he is a #3 or better starter going forward. I think both Prilepp and especially Matthews have made some big strides this year and give one hope that they can be solid #4 type starters going forward, and both Rojas and Abel have shown high ceilings. There is enough competence in the bullpen for it to be at least average next year. We did see some negatives and still have some real holes, though. We have no 2027 Catcher unless Jeffers is re-signed, Ryan has shown he is capped as a #2 starter because he can't pitch more than 125 innings without breaking down, Ober looks like he is very close to the end, and we are at least one OF short and that only if Buxton could play 140 games. We are really two OFs short. Maybe that's Jenkins and EmRod but we haven't seen them yet so who knows.

I think to me this team feels like overachievers because I had such low expectations. Overall, I would say it's a team that made solid progress this year in a rebuild but is still 4-5 players short of being a truly competitive team.

 

[Road trip]

My expectations were 85-90 losses, so they've overachieved that...maybe.  They could certainly lose more than 85 yet. 

I didn't expect them to "contend" for a playoff spot, but who could have imagined that the American League would be historically awful?  Meaningful games in August have been a plus.

But I also expected or hoped we would have a younger squad by now.  So many young players got hurt.  This is an old roster.  It's hard to project substantial improvement next year, and that is depressing.  This group certainly is not the 1986 Twins or even the 2000 Twins.  Both of those squads lost games but both were young and on the rise..  I'd rather be there than where the franchise is today.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I'll also add that we learned Wallner won't be a part of the future here, and I think Austin Martin is probably in the same boat. Agreed on Lewis, still on the fence about him, but I still lean towards not giving up on him yet. 

The short bench is really killing us right now... The FO is the big under achiever at this moment. August is just about to wrap up and Alex Jackson has 1 PA all month. It defies all logic. 

Agreed on Wallner....

Also agree on Ryan, as another mentioned. 

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

20 minutes ago, RpR said:

Leaving a pitcher in too long lost some games; poor defense lost some games.  Had those games not been lost the Twins current record would be better to the point that the pessimism would be less at least to some.

Leaving a pitcher in too long no doubt has hurt a couple of times, but how many times have they gotten an extra inning from starters (meaning less innings from lesser relief pitchers) that hasn't happened in the past. MAtthews just went 7 with 105 pitches in a win, give me that over pulling a guy rolling after 5 or 6 with pitches still in the arm. 

[thelanges5]

6 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I'll also add that we learned Wallner won't be a part of the future here, and I think Austin Martin is probably in the same boat. Agreed on Lewis, still on the fence about him, but I still lean towards not giving up on him yet. 

The short bench is really killing us right now... The FO is the big under achiever at this moment. August is just about to wrap up and Alex Jackson has 1 PA all month. It defies all logic. 

Good call on the FO. This poorly constructed and managed roster is a problem. I’m fully convinced that Jenkins is Captain America but even he cannot save the 2026 season.

[offensive_loons_fan]

They have achieved.

[LastOnePicked]

10 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Overall, I would say it's a team that made solid progress this year in a rebuild but is still 4-5 players short of being a truly competitive team.

What kind of rebuild leads you to hold on to once-valuable but ultimately injured/underperforming veterans as well as lose your #7 prospect and three more in your top 30? And also blocking the pathway for other prospects to prove they can be a part of the future here?

This wasn't a rebuild year. It should have been, but it wasn't. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, LastOnePicked said:

What kind of rebuild leads you to hold on to once-valuable but ultimately injured/underperforming veterans as well as lose your #7 prospect and three more in your top 30? And also blocking the pathway for other prospects to prove they can be a part of the future here?

This wasn't a rebuild year. It should have been, but it wasn't. 

This. 

[USAFChief]

Yes.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Yes.

I actually think this is true! They've managed to do it all. At least process wise, if not results wise.