Crack-n-Clank: Luke Keaschall and the Glorious History of Good Little Hitters Who Suck at Defense

[Linus]

I reject the notion that prior to analytics baseball people were blind to player performance. The reason why the list is surprising is that defensive metrics are unreliable. I like the concept however - it’s an interesting balance. Or as Casey Stengel once said “I don’t like those guys that drive in three and let in two”. I think Luke could be passable in LF where his speed could be an asset. He’s never going to throw particularly well because he has really poor throwing mechanics. 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Luis Arraez was all hit and no field according to all the analytics and now he is gold glove.  I would happily have a number of players from you table play on my team,  Luke will continue to both improve and hit.  We need him.

Only Statcast defensive metrics disliked Arraez. Arraez was Arraez flipped the script on Statcast's dubious methodology.

Arraez was relatively neutral otherwise.

[bean5302]

Keaschall needs to be passable defensively where he plays or he needs to be a DH.

[nicksaviking]

17 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

That's where he's playing now, and he still sucks...

And sucking in RF at Target Field proves to be more of an annoyance and less of an actual problem.

[bean5302]

Also, notice most of those players were from the 70s. It's not 1973 anymore. 

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

i agree w Jenkins ..but, what has ERod ever proven ??? all i see is the hype train on this guy and hes really never done a thing that screams promotion to MLB?? 

He has about 400 PA in AAA with an 867 OPS and is considered a good defender. Plus, he's only 23 years old so there is upside beyond that performance. He's going to be on the MLB roster next season because he will have exhausted all of his options.

[mickster]

3 hours ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

If the Twins agree that Keaschall will never be even a passable fielder, that makes a decision to non-tender Larnach more appealing. Keaschall as full time DH allows both Jenkins and EmRod to be up next year and have plenty of playing time

EmRod will not see Target Field as I believe he will be traded in the off season

[LA Vikes Fan]

Wow, I'm always amazed at how quickly people like to put players in a box as though they can never improve. I do get it, it beats actually thinking and is a whole lot easier. Keaschall is young and athletic. There is a real chance that he will improve enough to be viable as an outfielder, perhaps even get to neutral or slightly above. We won't know that for at least another year. Give the guy a chance for Chrissakes. Bottom line though is he plays every day to get his bat in the lineup and he is not going to DH at age 23 with perhaps the best speed on the team now that Buxton is slowing down. There will be plenty of plodding, bat first types (think Bell or Larnach) on the team would need to be the DH. Keaschall will play every day because he can hit and he will play somewhere in the field. We all just need to accept that as a given moving forward.

The other thing that amazes me is how so many have decided that our best outfield next year consists of a declining Buxton in center and two rookies who have never had an at bat at the MLB level. I am all for trading Larnach and giving Jenkins a shot and also trying to find at least some playing time for Emma to see what he can do. I'm also a realist; I think the chances of both being average to above average MLB hitters out of the box in 2027 is less than 50%, probably less than 35%. We will be thanking our lucky stars if one of them is an above average MLB bat in 2027 and get really lucky if Emma ever gets to the point where he can play more than 100 games a year without getting injured. The outfield next year is Buxton center, Keaschall in one corner, and probably Jenkins in the other with Emma and Martin on the bench. One of the latter three will get 500+ at bats, the other two probably 400 or less. I'd like to contend next year and I think we have a good enough team to do it. I don't want to derail our season by force-feeding rookies into the lineup.

 

 

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Also, notice most of those players were from the 70s. It's not 1973 anymore. 

You found the effect of the DH rule in 1973. Once the DH opened up in the AL - 13 of those players moved out of the field while staying in the lineup. Now, with the DH in both leagues there are 30 spots for players who can hit but can't field. There aren't that many more players who are good enough at hitting and bad enough at fielding to fill 30 spots. Really high-end hitters are scarce. That's one reason why we have seen the level of play on defense at 1B and LF increase.

When the options are carrying a player with a 100 OPS+ who should DH or carrying a player who can play the field with a 98 OPS+, most teams (but not the Twins) will opt for the player who can play defense. The Twins strategy was to grab as many of those DH-types as possible and take the hit on defense in order to boost the offense.

[rdehring]

The language and tone used in this article is disgraceful.  I for one am very disappointed in what TD has become.  As for the author, I seriously hope he never again appears on this site.

As for Keaschall, not only has he played so few games in the outfield he switched there mid-season.  Any discussion about his ability needs to be tabled until a year or two from now after he has had time to gain some experience out there.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

get really lucky if Emma ever gets to the point where he can play more than 100 games a year without getting injured.

Same goes for Jenkins and Buxton. Keaschall will probably have a spot in the corner OF for the whole season because it is likely that Jenkins, Buxton and Rodriguez miss a combined 200 games due to injury.

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

You found the effect of the DH rule in 1973. Once the DH opened up in the AL - 13 of those players moved out of the field while staying in the lineup. Now, with the DH in both leagues there are 30 spots for players who can hit but can't field. There aren't that many more players who are good enough at hitting and bad enough at fielding to fill 30 spots. Really high-end hitters are scarce. That's one reason why we have seen the level of play on defense at 1B and LF increase.

When the options are carrying a player with a 100 OPS+ who should DH or carrying a player who can play the field with a 98 OPS+, most teams (but not the Twins) will opt for the player who can play defense. The Twins strategy was to grab as many of those DH-types as possible and take the hit on defense in order to boost the offense.

Look here, the Twins also demand that player be absolutely terrible at hitting either righties or lefties. So like OPS+ 110 vs. lefties, OPS+ 45 vs. righties, and terrible in the field. That's the Twins way.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, thelanges5 said:

Look what Ron Washington did with Arraez at 2B. What is he doing this off-season? Or they could just sign Arraez…

Sign Arraez.

[arby58]

43 minutes ago, mickster said:

EmRod will not see Target Field as I believe he will be traded in the off season

Even if he’s traded, there is an excellent chance he will play at Target Field.

[mickster]

22 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Even if he’s traded, there is an excellent chance he will play at Target Field.

That is a true clarification.   I should have stated wearing a Twins uniform :)

[Andy MacPhail]

What gets me is how some say those who can play several positions well, as having no position. Yet saying those who are experimently put in various positions, because of their bat & play poorly, as super-utility. That's absurb.

In the past & maybe a little bit yet today, Twins have hyped-up defensively challenged players as good defenders. CF is a premium defensive position, how can they keep putting  Keaschal there when Buxton isn't there?

IMO, Twins will be better with Buxton, Jenkins & Emma in the OF (when they are all healthy) & Keaschal is the worst option there & is destined for DH. Don't get me wrong, I love his bat & want him in the lineup; but I've advocated to keep him at 1B/DH from the beginning. 

[Woof Bronzer]

2 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Not gonna happen. I mean, he'll improve a bit, but that's always gonna be a 30 arm. 

It was a 50 arm when he got drafted.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

And sucking in RF at Target Field proves to be more of an annoyance and less of an actual problem.

-30 runs is -30 runs (3 WAR) or a staff ERA added of 0.19. Basically, Luke Keaschall in RF turns a #3 starter into a #4.... all on his own. That's the pace Luke Keaschall is on based on his DRS for right field.

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Same goes for Jenkins and Buxton. Keaschall will probably have a spot in the corner OF for the whole season because it is likely that Jenkins, Buxton and Rodriguez miss a combined 200 games due to injury.

You be right about this. Also, while both Jenkins or Emma has hit LH Pitching pretty well in AAA, but we don't know if they can hit same side pitching at the MLB level. We need 4 starting quality OFs next year, plus a RH hitting 5th OF who can play against LH pitching. That 5th OF will be especially important when Buxton is on one of his IL stints. Is the current projection of Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins, Emma, and Martin that combination? I'm assuming Larnach is traded. It would be nice to have a better RH hitting option, but Martin isn't bad so I suspect the plan going into to 2027 is those 5 OFs with Roden, GG, Mendez, and Rosario at AAA in reserve. It also wouldn't surprise me if Emma was part of a trade package to a rebuilding team in return for a 2B or pitching.  

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

You be right about this. Also, while both Jenkins or Emma has hit LH Pitching pretty well in AAA, but we don't know if they can hit same side pitching at the MLB level. We need 4 starting quality OFs next year, plus a RH hitting 5th OF who can play against LH pitching. That 5th OF will be especially important when Buxton is on one of his IL stints. Is the current projection of Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins, Emma, and Martin that combination? I'm assuming Larnach is traded. It would be nice to have a better RH hitting option, but Martin isn't bad so I suspect the plan going into to 2027 is those 5 OFs with Roden, GG, Mendez, and Rosario at AAA in reserve. It also wouldn't surprise me if Emma was part of a trade package to a rebuilding team in return for a 2B or pitching.  

You left out Kody Clemens, Matt Wallner, Caden Kendle, Kyler Fedko, and  Ricardo Olivar on the depth chart. They are loaded with outfielders.

The Twins should be trading old and expensive for young and cheap, or at least allocating their free agent spending on areas of need rather than areas with a dozen options. Please, don't spend $17M to bring back Bell and Larnach while leaving a hole in the infield.

[MMMordabito]

I thought Juan Pierre would have been on that list for sure.  Eye guess data beats the I.

[MGX]

7 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

He's a terrible defender. He's never going to not be a terrible defender. His nickname should be Boulder; it captures both his sturdy physique and his rock-hard hands. He's not going to show up next spring and be a good outfielder, even if he puts in considerable work this winter. There's nothing he does well in the field.

He's playing in his 23 year old season & yet you seem certain he can't improve defensively. MLB history has shown this to be flawed thinking repeatedly. Just look at the names in the list you posted, plenty of players there who had good defensive seasons.

[Wedman13]

3 hours ago, rdehring said:

The language and tone used in this article is disgraceful.  I for one am very disappointed in what TD has become.  As for the author, I seriously hope he never again appears on this site.

As for Keaschall, not only has he played so few games in the outfield he switched there mid-season.  Any discussion about his ability needs to be tabled until a year or two from now after he has had time to gain some experience out there.

I'm trying to read through the lines of how you actually feel about this article :)

this is pure gold and made me laugh.  I really-read it, (the article) and yea... a bit unbecoming

[DJL44]

6 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

The part of my brain that needs all of our Tupperware container lids organized a certain way in the drawer really wishes this headline started out with "Crank-n-Clank"

I read it as crank-and-clank until you pointed this out.

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

You left out Kody Clemens, Matt Wallner, Caden Kendle, Kyler Fedko, and  Ricardo Olivar on the depth chart. They are loaded with outfielders.

The Twins should be trading old and expensive for young and cheap, or at least allocating their free agent spending on areas of need rather than areas with a dozen options. Please, don't spend $17M to bring back Bell and Larnach while leaving a hole in the infield.

I did leave them out, but that was intentional. Kody Clemens is now a 2B/UTL who really shouldn't get more than 400 ABs a season in more of a utility role playing mostly in the IF. He is the only MLB player amongst the group you mentioned. Kendle is having a great year in AA, interestingly after kind of stinking up the joint in A ball, and is at least a year or two out from true MLB shot. Those two are really the only two on your list are likely to have any further playing time for the Twins and Kendle is probably still a bit of a longshot. Wallner is gone after this year, hopefully the result of a trade rather than a nontender. Fedko is out until May with an injury and was completely overmatched in his brief MLB debut. He is likely a AAAA player will get his next MLB shot with a different team. Olivar could be worth a look in a reserve role assuming he is a good enough Catcher to actually play that position, not if he just has to play in the OF or 1B. 

The bottom line to me is that none of these players clog up anything. Clemens belongs on the MLB roster but really should be the 10th man in a 9 man lineup, playing mostly around the IF. I hope that's what he is next year after we trade for legitimate MLB 2B. Wallner and Fedko should be gone next year to create 40 man spots for others. Interestingly enough, those others are probably Caden Kendle and Ricardo Olivar, both of whom need to go on the 40 man in November.

I'm with you on not bringing back Larnach. I would like to see a five-man OF of Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins, Erod, and Martin to open up next year. I don't think that has anything to do with whether or not you bring back Bell. There will be 500+ ABs for four of those five, especially with the IL time we have to anticipate for both Buxton and ERod based on their histories. Martin can pick up the other roughly 200 ABs. We should keep Bell unless we think we have someone else that we can have DH who is better, but right now we don't, or we think that rotating players through the DH spot will make up for losing the guy who's going to get 20 – 25 HRs, and drive in 90 – 100 runs. Looking at who we got, I just don't see either one of those things but who knows who becomes available in the off-season. 

[Jacksson]

Keaschall signed with the Twins 7/18/23.  Here we  are 3 years later and the Twins have not yet determined/established a defensive home for this guy.  What kind of organization is it that permits this to take place?  What kind of organization condones signing, investing 3 years of organizational development resources on a one dimensional player?  Now he has reached the Major Leagues and FINALLY it comes to light that this guy is so unplayable at 2B that he has to be moved to the OF.  AND, it so happens, the Twins have a 40 man Roster and organizational prospect list CLOGGED UP with  OF talent.  Let's be clear: we are discussing a player  currently batting .274, NOT .324.  Would .324 be the case, allowances could be made.  If Keaschall lacks the range and reflexes to play 2B, then he certainly had better be working on getting the jump on fly balls off of the bat, learning how to play balls hit over your head and towards the wall and consistently throwing to the cutoff man.  Twenty-three is way too young to pigeon-hole a player into the career position of DH.

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, Jacksson said:

Let's be clear: we are discussing a player  currently batting .274, NOT .324.  Would .324 be the case, allowances could be made. 

Nobody in MLB is hitting .324. The best MLB batting average this season is .321. It's very gracious of you to "make allowances" for someone who wins the batting title.

FWIW - Keaschall's .274 average is ranked #34 in all of MLB.

[Otaknam]

Keaschall is an anachronism, the old school prototype gamer/scrapper who plays hard and fast, puts pressure on the defense, hits line drives, and whose uniform is always dirty by the third inning. He’s the kind of player that some teams try to change so he hits for more power, while his average drops. Despite his below average defense and awkward outfield throwing arm, I like him as a catalyst in the lineup. With a commitment to be better, I believe he can improve his defense. He disrupts the opponent when he is on base, which is underrated. But I’m not sure you replace DH Bell with Keaschall, as some have suggested. Instead, resign Bell for for 2027 and move Keaschall around as needed.

[Jacksson]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Nobody in MLB is hitting .324. The best MLB batting average this season is .321. It's very gracious of you to "make allowances" for someone who wins the batting title.

FWIW - Keaschall's .274 average is ranked #34 in all of MLB.

To state this fact is an absolute insult to what the game and it's players have become with the passing of time.  Check back on the batting averages of the top MLB performers over the last 60 years and try not to feel slighted when a player batting .274 is today idolized.

[DJL44]

29 minutes ago, Jacksson said:

To state this fact is an absolute insult to what the game and it's players have become with the passing of time.  Check back on the batting averages of the top MLB performers over the last 60 years and try not to feel slighted when a player batting .274 is today idolized.

MLB pitching has never been as good as it is now.