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Posted
Image courtesy of David Frerker-Imagn Images

There are certain things, or positions, rather, that organizations can never have enough of. Starting pitching is one of those things, and the Twins have experienced firsthand this year just how important pitching depth can be. 

With injuries to guys like Pablo López, Mick Abel and, more recently, Joe Ryan, Minnesota’s starting rotation has been tested in ways that probably weren’t expected coming into the season. But seeing so much of the organization’s pitching depth has made me wonder something: Do the Twins have an organizational problem when it comes to developing homegrown starting pitchers?

Obviously, there’s one clear outlier in that conversation. Ryan has spent most of his professional career in Minnesota, and the Twins have turned him into one of the better starting pitchers in the American League. He was acquired from Tampa Bay as part of the Nelson Cruz trade in 2021, developed into a legitimate major league starter and eventually became the kind of pitcher the Twins could confidently build a rotation around. But aside from Ryan — who himself was brought in from another organization — when was the last time the Twins turned a homegrown arm into a legitimate, quality starting pitcher?

That’s where things get a little murky. I don’t think you can call anybody else currently in the organization a true quality starter. Guys like Zebby Matthews and Bailey Ober have each had flashes of becoming that kind of pitcher, and both were drafted and developed by the Twins. But ultimately, Ober has kind of stabilized as a back-end starter, and on a better team, you could even make the argument that his best role might be in the bullpen. Matthews, meanwhile, is starting to look like a pitcher whose future could eventually take him in that direction as well.

Both guys have an ERA north of 4.60 this season, and given their respective track records, I’m not sure you can truly classify either one as a quality major league starter right now. That’s not to say either pitcher is a failure; far from it. The Twins have gotten major-league innings out of both, and Ober in particular has been a valuable part of the rotation for several years now. But there’s a difference between developing a serviceable starting pitcher and developing a legitimate impact arm. And that’s the part the Twins have struggled with.

Connor Prielipp could eventually change that conversation. The 25-year-old left-hander has the kind of arsenal that makes you believe there’s something much bigger in there. A mid-to-upper 90s fastball paired with two filthy breaking balls is the profile of someone who could eventually develop into an ace, or at the very least a really good No. 2 or No. 3 starter. The problem is that we just haven’t seen enough consistency yet. Prielipp is still in his rookie season, and there’s obviously plenty of time for him to figure things out. But the fact that he represents one of the clearest candidates in the organization to become a legitimate frontline starter also says something about where the Twins are currently at from a pitching-development standpoint.

Even when you look at the kind of pitchers Minnesota has drafted in recent years, there’s a lot of straightening out to do. Dasan Hill was moved at the trade deadline as part of the return for Jeff Hoffman. Riley Quick owns a 15.4% walk rate at Double-A, and Charlee Soto has struggled to stay on the field. It’s way too early to say what any of those guys ultimately will be, but that’s kind of the point. The Twins haven’t really had that future ace, top-100 type of pitching prospect emerge from their system in a long time. And I think a big part of that is because they haven’t been able to develop starting pitchers particularly well.

Now, I didn’t mention Taj Bradley, Abel or Kendry Rojas. And that’s because all three did a significant amount of their development with their former organizations. Bradley threw 354 innings with Tampa Bay before coming to Minnesota. Abel made his MLB debut with Philadelphia last year, and Rojas only threw five innings beyond Double-A with Toronto before joining the Twins. You could certainly argue that Abel and Rojas (especially) are partially the products of Minnesota’s development system, especially considering how much of their recent development has happened with the Twins. But even still, they aren’t your traditional homegrown players, and in Rojas’ case, his current trajectory looks more like that of a potential relief pitcher than a future rotation anchor.

That’s not necessarily an indictment of the Twins’ development system by itself. Teams acquire players from other organizations all the time, and the ability to take someone else’s prospect and maximize his talent is an important part of player development. But the Twins have also spent a significant amount of draft capital on pitching. In fact, nine of their top 11 picks in the most recent draft were pitchers. The Twins clearly believe they can figure this out.

They’re betting heavily on their ability to identify arms, develop them and eventually turn them into major league contributors. Maybe guys like Quick, Prielipp and Abel will make me eat my words. Maybe one of them eventually becomes the kind of pitcher the Twins have been missing. But until that happens, I think the organization’s track record of developing major league starting pitchers is something worth addressing. Because teams can never have enough starting pitching, and right now, the Twins don’t seem to have enough of it coming from within.


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Posted

Remember when Falvey was hired largely on the reputation of Cleveland drafting and developing pitching?  That’s not to say that trading for young pitchers should get no credit, but Falvey had a large enough sample size to conclude he had zero to do with Cleveland’s success and was a lot more word salad than results.  

Posted
4 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

And we traded away the best starting pitcher we've developed in a generation for minimal return.  AND it feels like we need an act of congress, a court order and a note from God to bring up some of our home grown hitting talent.

They really whiffed on that trade.  I will cut them a little slack because the national writers generally thought the Twins did very well in that trade.  However, teams like the Twins just can't afford to whiff when trading an asset like Berrios.  Cleveland has turned a lot of 1-1/2-year assets into 6-year assets and that's a big part of how they have put 90-win teams on the field far more often than most teams in the bottom half of revenue.    

It was a good move to trade him given we were out of that year and he was considerably below average the following year which was his last year of team control.  He also has only had one good year since the extension so it certainly was not a mistake to let him go.  However, the still had an opportunity to improve the club for 5-7 years and they whiffed.     

Posted

I really don't get this gripe. If you draft good hitters and trade them for good pitchers, that works. If you trade relief pitchers your developed for SP, that likely works better, because you are trading for more sure things than if you draft them 

This idea that somehow they've failed at having good starting pitchers just isn't borne out when looking at their standings in pitching. It's average or better. 

 

Posted
4 hours ago, Czelgert said:

Remember when Falvey was hired largely on the reputation of Cleveland drafting and developing pitching?  That’s not to say that trading for young pitchers should get no credit, but Falvey had a large enough sample size to conclude he had zero to do with Cleveland’s success and was a lot more word salad than results.  

The theory that Cleveland drafted and developed was one of those assumptions people make without actually validating the theory.  Cleveland traded for most of their pitching.  Of course, they should be given credit for development but most of their pitching came via trade for prospects or guys that had made it to the majors but had not established themselves.  I went back and looked at their 90-win teams after Falvey joined the organization.  Here is a list of the pitchers that were the most productive and how they were acquired.

Justin Masterson Trade - Had 200 IP in MLB  but was unproven
Ubaldo Jiménez Trade - Jiminez was well-established
Corey Kluber Trade - Prospect
Scott Kazmir Free Agent - 1 Year Deal
Zach McAllister Trade - Prospect
Carlos Carrasco Trade - Prospect
Trevor Bauer Trade - Made it the majors but had negative WAR
Andrew Miller Trade - Well-established
Bryan Shaw Trade - made in to the majors but was unproven
Danny Salazar  Intl Draft
Mike Clevinger Trade - Prospect
Josh Tomlin Drafted
Cody Allen Drafted
Shane Bieber Draft
Mike Clevinger Trade - Prospect
Brad Hand Trade
Triston McKenzie Drafted
Emmanuel Clase Trade - Prospect
Cal Quantrill Trade - Made it to the majors but was unproven
Justin Masterson  
 
Posted
25 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

I’m not sure why I need to care about this. Look at who they draft; SS, OF, and now catchers. They’re pretty clearly looking to get pitchers from elsewhere, and have done a fair to middling job of it.

I looked at this a few months back and found that, at that time, the Twins were in the top 10 in terms of fWAR from draft picks during the Falvey era. Jeffers was #1. Unfortunately, #2 and #3 were Steer and Rooker, who produced all of their WAR for other teams. I have to give them credit for converting Petty into Gray, also, although I wonder if Petty's career would have gone better had he gone to an organization other than the Reds, in which case that trade wouldn't appear to be quite as lopsided a success.

Also unfortunately, the Twins generated almost no WAR from international signings made during the Falvey era.

The #1 selling point for hiring Falvey was the patented "Falvey Pitching Pipeline," which was assumedly his unique skill in identifying raw talent and molding it into good cost-controlled major league pitchers, so that the team could spend money in other areas and not be locked into expensive, long-term contracts with pitchers at constant risk of major injuries that could cost them more than a season and put a big percentage of the team's payroll onto the IL.

However, the FPP seemed to develop a big leak around the AA portion of the funnel, e.g., Balazovic, Winder, Enlow, Festa, Culpepper, Zebby(?), in contrast to Cleveland, which year after year seems to still produce good starters for the major league team, such as Messick (taken 6 picks after Prielipp) and Williams this year, two drafted and developed starters who are better than any of the Twins' starters. Also, as somewhat of a kick, Cleveland's excellent closer, Cade Smith, who took over almost without a hitch after they lost their all-world closer, Clase, was drafted by the Twins in the 16h round of Falvey's first draft, but did not sign.

IMO: Falvey was overall good at identifying talent, but poor to mediocre at developing talent, among other things.

Posted
11 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

The #1 selling point for hiring Falvey was the patented "Falvey Pitching Pipeline," 

Please.  Where are the patent filings?  I'm not a lawyer but I'm pretty sure it's merely Pitching Pipeline™.  🙃

Posted

It would be good on this kind of article if the teams you have in mind to compare the Twins to would be mentioned. I think we could say Cleveland, then ? Tampa Bay  and recently Seattle? I think most of the best starters are high draft picks out of college and there aren't many. That's pretty much a crap shoot.

Posted

Any updates on Matt Canterino, RHP, Rice University?  When he pitched it was lights out! Hoping he starts rehab next season. Little know fact: ex MLB pitcher Tommy John was named after a medical procedure. We need to draft CF, SS & catchers at the higher picks. Develop then trade for pitching. Lower risk for failure. Remember only death & taxes are guaranteed. 

Posted
2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

And we traded away the best starting pitcher we've developed in a generation for minimal return.  AND it feels like we need an act of congress, a court order and a note from God to bring up some of our home grown hitting talent.

If you’re talking about home grown pitching who needs to come up? Who was this generational pitching prospect they just traded?

Posted
2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Zero pitching from international free agency

This!!! Out of all the comments I’m seeing blaming Falvey for not developing pitching( which is a sad dead horse argument to beat), this is the one that I always fall back on. Identifying and developing international pitching prospects on the pitching side has killed this team the last 10 years. Great point! 

Posted
2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

And we traded away the best starting pitcher we've developed in a generation for minimal return.  AND it feels like we need an act of congress, a court order and a note from God to bring up some of our home grown hitting talent.

I agree and I don't. It would have been great to get more for Berrios and a team like the Twins needs to maximize those opportunities. OTOH, if you look at other deadline trades of pitchers similar to Berrios, the usual outcome isn't much different.

My largest quibble about the deal is that they might have been better off trading for one player who was closer to a sure thing, instead of two players whose prospect status was already declining. But the Twins of that era seemed to have been operating under the belief that they could take raw hitters like Martin and teach them how to hit with more power, so they might have thought they got a steal in getting Martin.

Posted
27 minutes ago, gman said:

It would be good on this kind of article if the teams you have in mind to compare the Twins to would be mentioned. I think we could say Cleveland, then ? Tampa Bay  and recently Seattle? I think most of the best starters are high draft picks out of college and there aren't many. That's pretty much a crap shoot.

Exactly. When Falvey’s regime not only turned guys like Ober, Varland, Festa and Matthew’s into MLB caliber pitchers as no name late rounds choices that’s pretty good. Also, turning guys like Lopez and Ryan into legit top of the rotation guys is something not all teams do well. Cleveland and Seattle have used early round picks to build these SP staffs. Rasmussen and Mclanahan were both 1st round picks. Twins haven’t drafted a 1st rd pitcher in over a decade. It’s just not apples to apples grading Falvey or the Twins against Cleveland, Tampa and Seattle. In reality compared to the other 29 teams they’re probably average. They just haven’t hit on guys like Soto, Rays etc when they have taken pitchers in the first couple rounds. Honestly, I know Lackey was a no brainer but I almost wanted them to take a swing with Flora just to boost the SP depth.

Posted
1 hour ago, MeleMouth said:

I looked at this a few months back and found that, at that time, the Twins were in the top 10 in terms of fWAR from draft picks during the Falvey era. Jeffers was #1. Unfortunately, #2 and #3 were Steer and Rooker, who produced all of their WAR for other teams. I have to give them credit for converting Petty into Gray, also, although I wonder if Petty's career would have gone better had he gone to an organization other than the Reds, in which case that trade wouldn't appear to be quite as lopsided a success.

Also unfortunately, the Twins generated almost no WAR from international signings made during the Falvey era.

The #1 selling point for hiring Falvey was the patented "Falvey Pitching Pipeline," which was assumedly his unique skill in identifying raw talent and molding it into good cost-controlled major league pitchers, so that the team could spend money in other areas and not be locked into expensive, long-term contracts with pitchers at constant risk of major injuries that could cost them more than a season and put a big percentage of the team's payroll onto the IL.

However, the FPP seemed to develop a big leak around the AA portion of the funnel, e.g., Balazovic, Winder, Enlow, Festa, Culpepper, Zebby(?), in contrast to Cleveland, which year after year seems to still produce good starters for the major league team, such as Messick (taken 6 picks after Prielipp) and Williams this year, two drafted and developed starters who are better than any of the Twins' starters. Also, as somewhat of a kick, Cleveland's excellent closer, Cade Smith, who took over almost without a hitch after they lost their all-world closer, Clase, was drafted by the Twins in the 16h round of Falvey's first draft, but did not sign.

IMO: Falvey was overall good at identifying talent, but poor to mediocre at developing talent, among other things.

I would tend to agree. The major sticking point is the international side of things. The “FPP” seemed more geared towards taking middling pitching prospects on other teams and converting them into higher end guys( Pablo, Ryan, Duran, Jax, etc) and taking back end  of the draft guys and simply turning them into useable/solid pitchers (Ober, Varland, Matthew’s, Festa). They never took a pitcher in the 1st round or brought an international pitcher they signed all the way through the system. These are things Seattle and Cleveland do. Same with TB. He also brought the new age system to a team that was drafting relievers and trying to turn them into high velocity SP’s. Pitch to contact. Without that the Twins would have looked more like the Rockies than what their pitching system is now. He helped the system for sure. But when a Trevor Larnach could’ve maybe been a Shane Mclanahan. A Royce Lewis could’ve been a Hunter Greene or McKenzie Gore or a Keoni Cavaco could’ve been a George Kirby that’s where they’ve missed on a top of the rotation guy. That with international guys. Not in these other areas most talk about when comparing Falvey’s pitching pipeline.

Posted
1 hour ago, PuckettPond said:

Any updates on Matt Canterino, RHP, Rice University?  When he pitched it was lights out! Hoping he starts rehab next season. Little know fact: ex MLB pitcher Tommy John was named after a medical procedure. We need to draft CF, SS & catchers at the higher picks. Develop then trade for pitching. Lower risk for failure. Remember only death & taxes are guaranteed. 

Last I heard, the Twins signed him to a two-year minor league deal in spring 2025, to keep him with the organization without having him on the 40-man or the major league IL. He's out for the remainder of 2026 after surgery this spring.

Given that two-year deal, he'll ostensibly be back for one more shot next year -- and I hope health is finally on his side for once.

Posted
19 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

He also brought the new age system to a team that was drafting relievers and trying to turn them into high velocity SP’s. Pitch to contact. Without that the Twins would have looked more like the Rockies than what their pitching system is now. 

Absolutely, and this was of critical value at the time, but replacing an obsolete system does not mean the new system is excellent. Bill James used to say that baseball management usually gets hired for good reasons and gets fired for good reasons. In 2016, what Falvey brought to the team was necessary and beneficial, but by 2026 his way of doing things was no longer providing an advantage.

Posted

Twins seems to have had problems to draft & develop draftees into high end SPs. Our greatest success stories so far are Ober, Matthews, Festa & Prielipp, together with many failures, some have had success elsewhere. Twins have had much more success in obtaining other young pitchers. who have had a foundation in teams like MIA & TB, & tweak them. CLE, MIL & LAD are other teams that develop good pitchers but don't like to trade them to us.

So I concure that Twins would be better off to focus on positional players & trade them for promising MLB-ready SPs with good foundations & tweak them. MIA have had problems with developing hitters; Pablo was a good start of a probable relationship that was made in heaven, that didn't materialize. 

Posted
2 hours ago, PuckettPond said:

Any updates on Matt Canterino, RHP, Rice University?  When he pitched it was lights out! Hoping he starts rehab next season.

He’s been rehabbing injuries and recovering from surgeries since 2022. I doubt he ever pitches in a game again.

Posted

I guess it depends on how picky we want to be. Falvey put together good pitching staffs but more from trades than drafting and developing. Part of this is due to his early philosophy of not using high draft picks on pitchers. The advantage of developing home grown talent is it’s free - you don’t have to trade anything for it. Due to this draft drought they didn’t have much to show for a long time. Recent drafts have been better and the good prospects were higher picks. I also think that, while it’s valid to question development, it’s also pretty clear they really helped Ryan and Lopez thrive even though they traded for them. 

Posted

I'm going to take the unpopular opinion that the so called "pitching pipeline"...I don't recall Falvey ever using that term, perhaps he did...has actually been pretty strong the last few years. IMO, any sort of "pipeline" is acquiring quality arms for the rotation, and the pen, HOWEVER said arms are acquired.

We traded Arraez for Lopez. Good trade IMO. We moved a low level prospect for Odorizzi. Good move. We got Ryan as a MILB who, I believe, was just outside the Rays top 10 and turned him in to a debateable #1, and 2 time All Star, for a Cruz rental. Also a good move. A HS pitcher, Petty, recently drafted, turned out to be Gray. Abel looked really strong before his injury. Whether you agree with the sell off in 2025 or not, we got Abel and Rojas both at that time.

Ober and Festa and Matthews all turned out to be major surprises,  as was Varland. The fact that Ober put together a string of very good seasons prior to his loss of velocity doesn't change the fact he turned out really good. Even now, he's a competent ML SP, albeit as a 4th or 5th option. The jury is out on Matthews still...who has shown improvement this year...and whether or not he takes another step forward, or moves to the pen. The jury is still out on Festa as well. It's not his fault, or the Twins, that he got injured. HOPEFULLY, he can have a successful return, regardless of future role. 

Currently, Prielipp is another actual draft pick that looks to have a bright future. And there have been a number of Twins draft picks that have turned out to be good or decent relievers, and ALSO, can we remember that Duran was a talented A ball pitcher when acquired who the Twins developed in to one of the best closers in MLB. 

As @Major League Readypointed out above, very well, Cleveland's own "pipeline" included a ton of arms acquired from other teams before being turned in to quality rotation arms. Do THEY get downgraded because so many of their arms were ORIGINALLY drafted by other teams?

(crickets chirping)

I 100% grant you that it's been a while since the Twins system turned out a top of the rotation arm, though Ober was close to being such. And they haven't exactly ignored early picks in the draft from both college and HS as pitching options, but injuries messed up a handful of quality prospects, unfortunately. 

I will also grant you that a couple draft seasons of succes in developing mid and late round selections gave the organization a mistaken belief they could continue to find success in those under appreciated arms. In both the 2025 and recent 2026 drafts the team changed philosophy and began drafting more arms, of more immediate quality, earlier than they had in a few years. 

Quick wasn't the only good looking arm drafted in 2025. They also selected Ellwanger, Barr, and a few other very interesting arms. Again, unfortunately, they were all seemingly bit by an injury bug and either got injured almost immediately, or began the season on the IL and are only going to get about a half season here in '26. It STINKS that our MILB arms were bitten so bad by the injury bug this season. But a couple of guys like Mitrovich and Merit Jones have escaped the injury bug like Quick has. And they've had really good seasons. 

It could be a lot of fun in 2027 to see the 2025 and 2026 classes of selected pitchers all healthy and ready to throw. And I don't want to put the cart before the horse just yet...especially considering the voodoo curse that seems to hit almost every Twins prospect for at least 1yr...but BOTH A ball teams could be STACKED in 2027, with more than a few hitting AA at some point.

Injuries and some questionable arm selections in 2023-2024 drafts has left a bit of a gap in possible rotation arms for the system. But we might start to see some real change beginning next season. 

**Side note: if you actually looked at the 60 day lists for injured arms across the MILB system, you might be surprised how many arm are listed there. It happens to ALL teams, of course. But even a few 2023-24 arms that offer up SOME potential, are also hurt currently. 

For those clamoring for additional International prospects signed, those are even a bigger crap shoot than HS kids are. But with the changes they've made in regard to International scouting, it looks like they're at least willing to take a few more shots. But within the system NOW, their 2 best arms are probably Lares and Bohorquez. And BOTH of them are coming back from injuries as well. 

I just wish this whole "pipeline" debate would just go away. It's really just a nuisance arguement! I mean, all we should care about is how good the rotation and pen actually ARE, right?? Do we really care that Lopez and Ryan are great but we went out and traded for them? And made them better? If Prielipp and Rojas end up giving us the best 1-2 LH punch in the rotation for 2027 and beyond, do we really care that we drafted and developed one, and traded for and developed the other? 

Would you really watch Rojas throwing a great game and say to yourself: "That's great! Too bad we didn't sign him initially"?

EVERY TEAM gets bitten by the injury bug every season. It happens. It just stinks the Twins got bit HARD in the rotation, and rotation depth, this season.

But let's be honest with ourselves shall we? We'd LOVE to see our team just draft a BUNCH of front of the rotation SP arm. But guess what, EVERY fan of every team would like to see their team do that as well. It's just not that easy. If there was a magic formula for ALWAYS being right, everyone would try the same thing.

All I care about is some ridiculous "pipeline" means my Twins continue to draft a collection of interesting arms, develop them the best they can, sign and trade for better offerings, and build the best rotation they can. And if they DO THAT, they have created a ML "pipeline" to make sure that the ML team always has good arms to build around. 

Do I care if this "pipeline" also includes trades to keep it running? Not in the least +

 

Posted
10 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

They really whiffed on that trade.  I will cut them a little slack because the national writers generally thought the Twins did very well in that trade.  However, teams like the Twins just can't afford to whiff when trading an asset like Berrios.  Cleveland has turned a lot of 1-1/2-year assets into 6-year assets and that's a big part of how they have put 90-win teams on the field far more often than most teams in the bottom half of revenue.    

It was a good move to trade him given we were out of that year and he was considerably below average the following year which was his last year of team control.  He also has only had one good year since the extension so it certainly was not a mistake to let him go.  However, the still had an opportunity to improve the club for 5-7 years and they whiffed.     

His WAR since he left is 7.0   The two guys they got are a combined 4.1 and Martin was negative coming into this year and is a mere .9 in this his "breakout" year.  

Posted
8 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

If you’re talking about home grown pitching who needs to come up? Who was this generational pitching prospect they just traded?

We might need some reading comprehension here.  First of all I said nothing about home grown pitching that needs to come up.  I distinctly said HITTING.  And I never said JUST traded.  The best home grown pitching we've developed in a generation was Jose Berrios.

Posted
8 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

I agree and I don't. It would have been great to get more for Berrios and a team like the Twins needs to maximize those opportunities. OTOH, if you look at other deadline trades of pitchers similar to Berrios, the usual outcome isn't much different.

My largest quibble about the deal is that they might have been better off trading for one player who was closer to a sure thing, instead of two players whose prospect status was already declining. But the Twins of that era seemed to have been operating under the belief that they could take raw hitters like Martin and teach them how to hit with more power, so they might have thought they got a steal in getting Martin.

The biggest impact of trading Berrios was that a year hence they found themselves in need of a Jose Berrios type of pitcher.  Which lead to the Mahle trade.  Need I say more?

Posted
9 hours ago, PuckettPond said:

Any updates on Matt Canterino, RHP, Rice University?  When he pitched it was lights out! Hoping he starts rehab next season. Little know fact: ex MLB pitcher Tommy John was named after a medical procedure. We need to draft CF, SS & catchers at the higher picks. Develop then trade for pitching. Lower risk for failure. Remember only death & taxes are guaranteed. 

Canterino's been starting rehab every year for about a half a decade hasn't he?  It seems we HAVE been drafting SS & catchers pretty high.  

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