Counterpoint: Walker Jenkins is Knocking on the Door, But Twins Shouldn't Open It Yet

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Walker Jenkins has done everything you could ask of him since entering pro ball. The Twins’ first-round draft pick in 2023 and the organization’s top prospect should become a staple in Minnesota’s outfield for several years to come. At just 21 years old, Jenkins is currently slashing .291/.385/.483 at Triple-A St. Paul, good for an .868 OPS. His plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills are clearly well beyond his years, and while he might not have 30-homer upside, he has no shortage of in-game power. 

As a result, it seems like all of Twins Territory is clamoring to see Jenkins in the major leagues, and I can’t blame anyone for that. However, I don’t share that belief. And before everyone goes to bury me in the comments, let me explain why.

I think there are a few reasons the Twins should keep Jenkins at St. Paul for (ideally) the rest of the season, or at the very least, until September. Some of those reasons are admittedly more important than others, but when you put them all together, I think the argument for keeping Jenkins in Triple-A is pretty compelling.

For starters, Jenkins is not currently on the Twins’ 40-man roster. That by itself is a relatively minor issue, but it would create an additional roster decision for the Twins to make if they wanted to call him up now. Unless the team places someone currently on the 40-man roster on the 60-day injured list, Minnesota would have to remove someone to make room for Jenkins. That alone probably isn't enough to keep him in the minors, but I think it goes well beyond that.

By calling Jenkins up now, the Twins run the risk of him becoming ineligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2027. If Jenkins were to win that award, Minnesota would receive a Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) draft pick, which would come immediately after the first round and before the Competitive Balance Round A picks. How much do the Twins care about that? I can’t say, but there is a pretty clear incentive to preserve that possibility. Jenkins can get up to 130 at-bats between now and the end of the season and retain his rookie eligibility for 2027. If he exceeds that threshold, however, he would no longer qualify. Considering Jenkins is already performing at a high level in Triple-A, it would be pretty easy to see him accumulating enough playing time to cross that threshold if he were called up soon.

There’s also the reality that the 2027 season might not be your typical baseball season. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement is set to expire in December, meaning MLB owners and players will have to agree to a new CBA ahead of next season. Given how much uncertainty there is surrounding future spending rules and the possibility of a work stoppage, the 2027 major-league season could very well be delayed. The minor-league season, however, would not be impacted.

If the Twins bring him up to the majors this season and the 2027 season starts late, that's valuable at-bat and development time that Jenkins could potentially miss out on. He'd be sitting around waiting for the major-league season to begin, instead of getting regular playing time in the minors. If he stays in the minors for the rest of this season, the Twins could bring him up early in 2027 if everything goes according to plan. Again, how much weight the Twins place on that possibility is impossible to know. But at the very least, it’s another potential complication they have to consider.

The last point I’ll mention isn’t really a point. It’s a name, and that name is Emmanuel Rodriguez. Rodriguez and Jenkins have quite a bit in common. Both are talented, left-handed hitting outfielders who have performed extremely well at Triple-A. But they also have some important differences. For starters, Rodriguez is already on the Twins’ 40-man roster, and in addition, he’s out of minor-league options after this season.

Just as Jenkins passed an important deadline Friday when he wasn't recalled within 45 days of the end of the season, eliminating one way he could have lost rookie eligiblity, Rodriguez passed one this week when he exceeded 30 active days on the Saints roster this year. He's now played (technically) five full pro seasons and is not eligible for a fourth option in 2027; the criteria for a full season require only that a player be active for at least 90 days, or be active for 30 days (not counting rehab assignments) and be on the IL (as opposed to the restricted list or in free agency) for another 60 days; Rodriguez has now had five such campaigns. To be saddled with a fourth option year (a benefit to the team, but not the player), a player must have four or fewer seasons meeting those criteria when they exhaust their first three years of being optionable.

If the Twins plan on keeping Rodriguez around beyond next Opening Day—which I don't know for sure that they do—this is essentially his last chance to get his feet wet in the major leagues before potentially being thrust into a much more impactful role next season. It would also be easier for the Twins to bring him up. They wouldn't need to remove someone from the 40-man roster to make room for him, and a potential 2027 work stoppage wouldn't affect his development in the same way, because he can't simply be optioned back to the minors again. If the Twins feel inclined to add an outfielder from Triple-A, I’d rather see them give Rodriguez that opportunity first.

It might not be the most popular take I’ve ever had, but I think keeping Jenkins in the minors is the right move. I don't think there's any reason to rush him this season, especially with so much uncertainty surrounding next year. Jenkins has already done everything the Twins could have asked of him. Another month in St. Paul isn't going to change that. If the 2027 season starts on time (or soon thereafter), the Twins can bring him up early and let him begin his major-league career on their terms. And if that happens, Jenkins should have a very good chance to establish himself as one of the favorites for the 2027 AL Rookie of the Year award. For a player with this much potential, waiting a little longer might ultimately be the best move for everyone.

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[bean5302]

If Jenkins looks the part at the plate and he's hitting the ball like he has been the last couple weeks, another couple weeks of "prove it" is good enough for me. 

[MikeNC]

Meh, bring them both up on Sept. 1.  Just bump a guy off the 40-man.  I don't think we'd miss Mr. Go if he went.

[LastOnePicked]

I'm totally confused.

Does this team see itself in a WC race? Then why would you ever choose to not put your best talent on the field? We're not talking about a hasty AA promotion here. This is a top-tier prospect at the last rung of the minor leagues.

And how is Jenkins being denied MLB service time possibly better for him?

I no longer see this team in a WC race, so I guess any number of explanations for keeping him down to manipulate service time or hope for some weird ROY draft pick to materialize could make sense. That's the patented Twins Way. Nibble your way to occasional fringe success.

But we've been told by ownership that there's a new spirit of "winning now" in the air. This team is struggling to score more than a run or two. Why would you ever leave a weapon on the shelf in the heat of a fight? And why would/should the fans support this?

[Tibs]

I'll meet you in the middle and say we call up both Rodriguez and Jenkins

[PuckettPond]

Let's wait & see how Jenkins & Erod preform in the AFL. I believe both have great potential but injuries have slowed their development & path to the Big Show. They both need more time on the field.

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, MikeNC said:

Meh, bring them both up on Sept. 1.  Just bump a guy off the 40-man.  I don't think we'd miss Mr. Go if he went.

Teams virtually always use one of their two extra slots on a pitcher. 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

I'm totally confused.

Does this team see itself in a WC race? Then why would you ever choose to not put your best talent on the field? We're not talking about a hasty AA promotion here. This is a top-tier prospect at the last rung of the minor leagues.

And how is Jenkins being denied MLB service time possibly better for him?

I no longer see this team in a WC race, so I guess any number of explanations for keeping him down to manipulate service time or hope for some weird ROY draft pick to materialize could make sense. That's the patented Twins Way. Nibble your way to occasional fringe success.

But we've been told by ownership that there's a new spirit of "winning now" in the air. This team is struggling to score more than a run or two. Why would you ever leave a weapon on the shelf in the heat of a fight? And why would/should the fans support this?

What makes you think Walker Jenkins is better than Joe Benson?