Might Be Something There With This Former First-Round Pick

[Greggory Masterson]

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints (photo of Aaron Sabato)

The Twins selected Aaron Sabato with the 27th pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, and the first baseman has had a rough go of it in the seven seasons since then. However, now might be the time to finally give him the call.

When you draft a player with the First Base Only tag, he has to hit. Sabato was the highest-drafted first baseman in 2020—a draft mired by the uncertainty of only having a few weeks of scouting for players whose seasons were shut down in March—mostly because Spencer Torkelson was drafted as a third baseman.

Unfortunately, Sabato’s minor league career is littered with not hitting. Or at least not hitting enough. He’s got a pretty standard first-base-only profile: a lot of strikeouts, a lot of homers, a low batting average, and enough walks to keep his on-base percentage above water. That batting average has, for the most part, been low enough to keep him from being taken seriously as a prospect. Across six minor league seasons, he’s mustered just a .230 average and has struck out over 30% of the time.

That type of hitter generally doesn’t have a long major league career, or one at all. But Sabato has managed to hang around in the Twins organization, and every season, he’ll have a few weeks in a row that lead fans to think he might finally be putting it together.

This season is as close as we’ve gotten to the fabled “putting it together.”

Sabato began the 2026 season—his age-27 season—with Triple-A St. Paul. He played sparingly, in just four of the team’s first 17 games, registering 14 plate appearances and striking out in seven of them.

Then he started getting opportunities. Starting with a three-hit night on April 16, he played nine of the team’s final 13 April games, slashing .310/.375/.621 (.996) with three doubles and two home runs across 32 plate appearances. And he really hasn’t looked back.

Since April 16th, when he started playing consistently, he’s hitting .293 with 47 extra-base hits (20 home runs) and an OPS of .961. Even factoring in those bad first handful of games, his OPS sits at .936. The International League is a high-offense league, so raw OPS can be deceiving, but he sits about 30% above league average by wRC+.

His .287 batting average at Triple-A in 2026 is the best mark at any level of his career, outside of his .305 average in 39 games at Double-A last season. His next-best year-end average in a sample of more than 50 games was .245 last season at Triple-A. His wRC+ has only been this high twice—in 39 games at Double-A last season and in 22 games at High-A in 2021.

This might be a fluke, or it might be a player in the prime of his career having found an approach that clicks. He’s managed to produce against fastballs, off-speed, and breaking pitches alike—though he’s absolutely feasted on fastballs, with a .326 average and .433 wOBA. He’s still swinging and missing plenty, but he’s cut his strikeout rate down to 24% this year (which will increase if he gets a call-up).

He’s cut down his walks over the last two years, but that has been a product of a more aggressive approach with pitches both inside and outside of the zone. Even with a reduced walk rate, the improvement in his batting average has given him a .356 OBP on the year, better than any season of his career outside of Single-A. And he’s pulling the ball more than he ever has, with a pull air percentage of 17%, which is merely on the higher side of average (72nd percentile), but the best mark of his career. 

 

  

And contextually, he’s a great fit for the Twins right now. Sabato has a staggering 1.243 OPS against lefties this season, slashing .364/.470/.773 against southpaws. The major league club, on the other hand, ranks in the bottom five in baseball against left-handed pitchers in batting average, OPS, wRC+, and wOBA. It’s dire, with only five Twins with more than 10 plate appearances who have been league-average or better performers against lefties (wRC+, where 100 is average, in parentheses): Ryan Jeffers (165), Austin Martin (124), Royce Lewis (117), Byron Buxton (104), Kody Clemens (103).

And it’s not even close after that. The next-best hitter is Josh Bell, who has a .667 OPS that’s 14% below league average. Right now, Victor Caratini is being trusted with first base against lefties, and he’s following close behind with a .607 OPS against southpaws this season, 21% below league average. The two have accounted for 64% of the team’s plate appearances against lefties at first base and designated hitter.

It would be foolish to sit here and say “Well Sabato couldn’t be worse!” because he absolutely could. If he’s walking less and his strikeout rate jumps in his transition to the majors, he can absolutely be worse. If MLB pitchers can attack him with offspeed and breaking pitches for strikes, they’ll take away his biggest strength, demolishing fastballs. And even when he gets fastballs, it’s unclear that he’ll be able to keep up with MLB velocity, as the average fastball he’s seen thus far this season is around 94 MPH.

But the bar for him to clear isn’t that high. If he were to muster just league-average offense against lefties, he would be a significant addition to this lineup. And there’s plenty of room for him.

Tristan Gray and Alex Jackson are currently on the big-league roster (or at least one of them is, pending Kaelen Culpepper's corresponding move), but they are rarely playing. Gray has started just three of nine games since replacing an injured Byron Buxton a week and a half ago. Jackson has started three games since Ryan Jeffers returned from injury on July 10th, two of which were at first base against a lefty (in very limited action versus lefties, Jackson has a .382 OPS across 24 plate appearances).

It’s rare that a team could reasonably have room for a first baseman who would strictly fill the short side of a platoon, but the Twins are in that position now. Even after Culpepper's promotion, or if Walker Jenkins were to be called up, there could still be room for someone like Sabato to try to keep the line moving against lefties, if they valued a platoon hitter and didn’t bite on one of several potential right-handed bats currently designated for assignment. Or perhaps he could be their September position player call-up when the roster expands by one hitter and one pitcher.

Sabato doesn’t have a high ceiling in the majors, and projection systems like ZiPS don’t forecast him being even an average hitter at a position you need to hit. But right now, what’s the risk in giving him a shot a few times a week against left-handed pitchers?

And it would be fun—if you dig big dudes who ding dongs, anyway.

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[Brandon]

I would like to see him get an opportunity.  If he can provide some value and Raya becomes a solid reliever along with CJ Culpepper and Rosario gets up too... that would make the 2020 draft become a success with 4 of the 5 making the majors.  If Sabato was a 1B/ DH/ PH getting around 250-300AB in a season with 10-20 HRs there is value in that.  Raya a top bullpen arm and CJ Cullpepper a low level reliever and Rosario is likely a AAAA player getting opportunities when there are injuries....

[bean5302]

Sabato is likely to be a defensively and positionally challenged DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. / Kyler Fedko. He might perform as a platoon DH, but that means pinch hitting and starting once per week. So maybe, what, 150 PA a year? How much value does that really add?

[Greggory Masterson]

5 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I would like to see him get an opportunity.  If he can provide some value and Raya becomes a solid reliever along with CJ Culpepper and Rosario gets up too... that would make the 2020 draft become a success with 4 of the 5 making the majors.  If Sabato was a 1B/ DH/ PH getting around 250-300AB in a season with 10-20 HRs there is value in that.  Raya a top bullpen arm and CJ Cullpepper a low level reliever and Rosario is likely a AAAA player getting opportunities when there are injuries....

The Twins only had 4 draft picks in 2020. Culpepper was a 2022 guy. They lost their 3rd round pick signing Josh Donaldson, and their second round pick was Alerick Soularie, who they cut in 2024

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I would love to see Aaron get a shot at the Major League level.  Someone would need to get hurt or the Twins would fall out of contention for it to happen this year.  Aaron deserves a shot, but it may not be with the Twins. 

[DJL44]

He doesn’t play defense well enough to make a roster as a RHB platoon caddy. Do you see any other teams carrying a RHB who only platoons at DH?

[LastOnePicked]

One of the preseason consolations - back when I was pushing for this team to rebuild - was the hope of getting a chance to see fringe players like Sabato get an actual chance. I'd love it even more if he gets a crack in a WC run.

[Brandon]

16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Sabato is likely to be a defensively and positionally challenged DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. / Kyler Fedko. He might perform as a platoon DH, but that means pinch hitting and starting once per week. So maybe, what, 150 PA a year? How much value does that really add?

I have never seen a bench player who plays the entire season only get 150 ABs.  225-250 is usually the bottom tier.  the only exception has been Kiersey who didn't make the whole season but was on a low AB pace.

[Brandon]

17 minutes ago, Greggory Masterson said:

The Twins only had 4 draft picks in 2020. Culpepper was a 2022 guy. They lost their 3rd round pick signing Josh Donaldson, and their second round pick was Alerick Soularie, who they cut in 2024

CJ Culpepper, Sabato, Raya and Rosario all came from the 2020 draft and there was one who already retired.  Probably Soularie.  There was probably a competitive round pick you overlooked. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Brandon said:

CJ Culpepper, Sabato, Raya and Rosario all came from the 2020 draft so there was probably a competitive round pick you overlooked. 

CJ Culpepper was drafted in the 13th round of the 2022 draft.

@Greggory Masterson is 100% correct that the Twins only drafted 4 guys in 2020. Sabato (pick 27), Soularie (pick 59), Raya (pick 128), and Rosario (pick 158).

[wesnewy]

I think the only reason he has been kept around is the Twins are afraid of another 'Brent Rooker' situation

[chpettit19]

I'm all for under .500 teams giving guys shots. Even if the odds of them succeeding are incredibly low. This .500 team is being run a little differently because the rest of the league is struggling so much, but generally speaking, I am all for giving the Sabato, Fedko, McCusker, Keirsey types shots. They are often overwhelmed pretty quickly, but if you can find 1 guy who surprises you in a lost season it's pretty useful.

I don't have high expectations for Sabato, and this team is "going for it," so he's unlikely to get a look this year unless injuries really pile up quick. But if the team's situation was different, I'd be all for seeing if he can surprise us.

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I have never seen a bench player who plays the entire season only get 150 ABs.  225-250 is usually the bottom tier.  the only exception has been Kiersey who didn't make the whole season but was on a low AB pace.

He's not a traditional bench player.

Sabato would be a platoon DH bat you'd only expect to see starting against left handed pitching. Last year, based on Fangraphs, left handed pitchers made 1,233 starts of 9,720 starts. That's 1 in 8. So Sabato would start maybe 20 games a year sooooo 100 PA there, and another 50 pinch hitting?

[Greggory Masterson]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He doesn’t play defense well enough to make a roster as a RHB platoon caddy. Do you see any other teams carrying a RHB who only platoons at DH?

I will counter this question with a question: how many teams carry a third catcher who has started one game at catcher in the last month

[bean5302]

Just now, Greggory Masterson said:

I will counter this question with a question: how many teams carry a third catcher who hasn’t a started

Isn't the question about whether Sabato should be on the roster, not whether Alex Jackson should be on the roster? The Twins are not legally obligated to have bad players on the roster, right? I mean, I don't think they are unless you know of some secret back room deal TD writers have been made aware of?

 

[Greggory Masterson]

Just now, bean5302 said:

Isn't the question about whether Sabato should be on the roster, not whether Alex Jackson should be on the roster? The Twins are not legally obligated to have bad players on the roster, right? I mean, I don't think they are unless you know of some secret back room deal TD writers have been made aware of?

 

The premise of the backend in this writeup is that a) Sabato could fill one of the most gaping holes on this roster, even if it’s minor and b) they aren’t using this roster spot efficiently anyway.

Even beyond Jackson and Sabato, it’s unclear how they would use that spot efficiently, short of calling up Jenkins, who himself would be the 5th or 6th outfielder and would push Lewis or Keaschall out of the lineup vs RHP and is not good against lefties. Gonzalez could be another option, but he’s not hitting at AAA and would be filling the same role.

If you have an internal option in mind, I’d love to hear it.

[bean5302]

Sabato. xwOBA in AAA this year is an awful .313. That's like an expected OPS of .675-ish/wRC+ 70ish when the average player in that league OPS's .775. It's just like his last year in AAA. It's all luck.

[Greglw3]

54 minutes ago, MileHighTwinsFan said:

I would love to see Aaron get a shot at the Major League level.  Someone would need to get hurt or the Twins would fall out of contention for it to happen this year.  Aaron deserves a shot, but it may not be with the Twins. 

Brent Rooker

[jmlease1]

It's tough for him in two different measures. 1) he's not on the 40-man. Not a huge issue right now (there's room to maneuver there) but it is a thing. 2) he literally can't play anywhere other than 1B or DH, making him duplicative of Josh Bell from a position standpoint. That's tough when teams carry 13 pitchers.

Now, could Sabato contribute more than Alex Jackson? I would argue yes. But his role would be start against the short side of a platoon, pinch hit, and maybe get a little more run to rest a guy like Bell if he's not hitting? Give Lewis another day off or Clemens if Lewis slides to 2B? It's not a huge role. But it's at least interesting.

I dunno if Sabato will get a shot in MN, but someone will take a look at him now. And props to him for continuing to grind, make adjustments, improve, and give himself a chance, especially after everyone, and I mean everyone (myself included) calling him a bust. I respect the heck out of a guy who in the face of all that, with real adversity in the minors, fought through it trying to realize his potential.

Baseball is damnably hard. I dunno if Sabato can really make it in MLB (they say the gap between AAA and MLB is as big as it's ever been) and I'm sure some people can't stand the idea of seeing him up with the Twins (either because he's a Falvey pick, or because he's a guy who swings big and K's a lot) but I think it would be a heck of a story if he got a look and he might have something to add.

Rooting for the dude. prove me and everyone else who called you a bust wrong. Make us look like the dumbass keyboard klowns we are. :P

[Parfigliano]

53 minutes ago, wesnewy said:

I think the only reason he has been kept around is the Twins are afraid of another 'Brent Rooker' situation

If they were really afraid of that they would give him a legit chance at the MLB level.

[Parfigliano]

36 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Isn't the question about whether Sabato should be on the roster, not whether Alex Jackson should be on the roster? The Twins are not legally obligated to have bad players on the roster, right? I mean, I don't think they are unless you know of some secret back room deal TD writers have been made aware of?

 

I thought they are legal obligated to play several stretches of games with a short bench.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

How bad has defense been? We already have a square peg at 1st in Lewis. Lewis finally appears to be adjusting after 5 years. Not much different than Sabato. 

[Dman]

He's just not a versatile player which makes it tough to have him as a bench bat.  I'm with several others.  How much value is there in a right handed DH\1st base bat when you have Lewis as a right handed bat  who is far more versatile. Bell can switch hit not that it matters that much, but in my mind that is the guy you would need to move for Sabato. 

Just looking at last night would Sabato have have scored from second on that Lee single?  Jackson did. Jackson has way more versatility than Sabato, not that I trust his bat, but he plays above average defense and runs better than Sabato.  

I'm not completely opposed to giving Sabato a chance at some point, but see little to no value to doing it right now.  Maybe when rosters expand?  Despite those amazing lefty splits I still think I'd leave things as they are for now.

[Greglw3]

14 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Sabato. xwOBA in AAA this year is an awful .313. That's like an expected OPS of .675-ish/wRC+ 70ish when the average player in that league OPS's .775. It's just like his last year in AAA. It's all luck.

Ha ha ha, the lucky baseball player. That’s one thing I’ve noticed is the non-helpful tendency of some of these SABR style statistics to simply say, this statistical measurement proves player X is having bad luck.

How fortunate the blessed one, Aaron Sabato to stay so lucky that he’s piled up a near record season for St. Paul and carries a 1.200+ OPS vs lefties.

As John McEnroe once emphatically stated to a stunned tennis world, "You cannot be serious". But I think you’re being sarcastic in saying it’s all luck but disguising it with xwOBA, that stat that Roy Smalley, Justin Morneau, Denard Span, Paul Molitor and Trevor Plouffe love to quote.

[clone52]

Call him up to DH against lefties. Royce is good at 1B.  If Royce could play elsewhere against lefties, let Sabato play but I don't know if there is anyone else you would put at DH against lefties.

[weitz41]

36 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Sabato. xwOBA in AAA this year is an awful .313. That's like an expected OPS of .675-ish/wRC+ 70ish when the average player in that league OPS's .775. It's just like his last year in AAA. It's all luck.

Not that I disagree with you. That's one heck of a lucky streak. I'm going to have to ask him for some lottery numbers. 

A little earlier this week there was an article about if we should pick up any of the resent players that got cut. I was for Refsnyder for the exact reason Sabato kinda sorta could make sense.

[bean5302]

21 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Ha ha ha, the lucky baseball player. That’s one thing I’ve noticed is the non-helpful tendency of some of these SABR style statistics to simply say, this statistical measurement proves player X is having bad luck.

How fortunate the blessed one, Aaron Sabato to stay so lucky that he’s piled up a near record season for St. Paul and carries a 1.200+ OPS vs lefties.

As John McEnroe once emphatically stated to a stunned tennis world, "You cannot be serious". But I think you’re being sarcastic in saying it’s all luck but disguising it with xwOBA, that stat that Roy Smalley, Justin Morneau, Denard Span, Paul Molitor and Trevor Plouffe love to quote.

You'd have a better argument if Sabato wasn't right in line with his expected results last year in AAA or if you had some underlying metrics to point to why a 27 year old player who has been barely adequate throughout his entire MiLB career has suddenly figured out how to be good at hitting.

14 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

Not that I disagree with you. That's one heck of a lucky streak. I'm going to have to ask him for some lottery numbers. 

A little earlier this week there was an article about if we should pick up any of the resent players that got cut. I was for Refsnyder for the exact reason Sabato kinda sorta could make sense.

Happens all the time in baseball. DaShawn Keirsey, Jr., Carson McCusker, Kyler Fedko.

[Fatbat]

I can think of a few better prospects that should be called up first.

[PuckettPond]

In time if given a chance could be our Lou Gehrig. Watch out Royce Lewis.