Report: Rival Teams Expect Twins To Trade Ryan Jeffers

[TNtwins85]

34 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The qualifying offer occurs before the CBA expires. Yes future years it is gone but it’s still viable for this year. Due to market dynamics he is likely traded in an overpay, a team that plans to sign him to long term contract Yankees, or Tampa Bay who views him as the final piece.  There are now 5 teams interested in a catcher and Jeffers is the only elite/very good catcher left. The value will be more than a comp pick.  

Exactly! Thank you for the accuracy and logic!

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

26 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

The QO won’t magically be gone. It still exists until December. Long after he would be offered it and either accept or reject it. He wants to be a free agent. He hired Boras for that. The Twins never offered the contract he wanted. Trade him now. If not now you get either nothing or a late 1st rounder. A lottery ticket you could ask for in a trade now while also getting a back end top 100 prospect. Unless you are leading the division and marching towards a WS run which the Twins are not you trade him.

If you are traded the qualifying offer can’t be used.  Hence why it’s in Jeffers best interest to be traded. 

[HerbieFan]

I keep racking my brain to try and find a reason why the best move is to keep him through this season.  This is not a serious playoff team.  It was never going to be a serious playoff team.  They might make the playoffs, but.  It's been a fun team to watch....they battle offensively and I'm shocked it's team within one game of .500.  I just hate losing good players, but he's leaving anyway.  I guess it would depend on the return....hopefully with Langeliers out of the picture it creates a mini bidding war for Jeffers. 

[Whitey333]

Yes it would be prudent to trade Jeffers.  Don't settle for a crapshoot compensatory draft pick. Get something decent for him now.  Trade him this week.

[chpettit19]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I totally understand why people want to keep Jeffers. If he'll take a three year deal for like 15 a year? I do that, sure. I just doubt it, and it's why I deal him for a AA SP in the 50-120 range, even if I have to throw in a low level SP from MN to do that. But I get why others disagree.

I think the SEA dream might be dead, as they seem to be fading....

I certainly don't have high hopes for Hancock, but the Mariners are half a game behind the Twins, closer to their division leader, and have been just as good over their last 10 as the Twins. If the Mariners aren't trying, it's hard to argue the Twins should.

I know you're not one advocating the Twins "go for it" or anything, just pointing out the circumstances of the 2 teams.

[olerud]

100% yes without a doubt!

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Now this is where it gets interesting. In my opinion, we will have traded Peyton Eeles for potentially a top 100 prospect, you can laugh but without getting Alex Jackson I don’t think the Twins consider trading Jeffers. We have a young staff the last thing we need is inexperienced Triple A catchers creating another hurdle in trying to make them successful. Now we got lucky no one put in a claim for Alex at the beginning of the season. I thought we would trade Alex then. However there was no major injuries of catchers no teams having major needs. The supply demand dynamics have completely flipped just as we are getting to the deadline.  

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

I keep racking my brain to try and find a reason why the best move is to keep him through this season.  This is not a serious playoff team.  It was never going to be a serious playoff team.  They might make the playoffs, but.  It's been a fun team to watch....they battle offensively and I'm shocked it's team within one game of .500.  I just hate losing good players, but he's leaving anyway.  I guess it would depend on the return....hopefully with Langeliers out of the picture it creates a mini bidding war for Jeffers. 

I’ll take a shot. You may or may not agree, but I think they are things to consider..

1. As you note, it does depend a ton on what the return is. I guess I’m not as convinced as others on the amount they receive. Which is related to…

2. Is what they will get substantially more than what they would get with a comp pick? As others have noted above, the QO piece may change with a new CBA, but because the QO process is resolved before the Dec. 1 and some free agent contracts will have been signed by then, it’s hard for me to see a new CBA affecting this year’s offseason. 

3. Trading him takes away the slight possibility of accepting a QO. I don’t think he will, but if he’s healthy, I’m strong considering offering it. People think it’s a no brainer that he would accept it. I don’t. I think the salient comparable contracts are that Raleigh’s contract buys out his final arb year and then gets him $24.66M for his 31-33 seasons and that Realmuto got $23.875M for his 31-34 seasons back in 2022-25. Will Smith’s AAV is only $14M, but it took guaranteeing 10 years to get it that low. Is Jeffers as good as Realmuto or Raleigh? Probably not, but consider inflation and that Jeffers is a year younger. I could see something like 3/$60M or 4/$72M as his targets. Even if $23M is high on a per-season basis, Raleigh is a good example of why a catcher is going to be really reluctant to pass on a potential long-term deal. AND if Jeffers does take it, cool. It probably is an overpay, but it’s only a one-year deal and puts them in a very good spot. They’d even now have Caratini or Jackson as a trade chip. 

4. Trading him lessens the chance of him resigning. Folks rightly note that trading him doesn’t preclude the option of resigning him, but there are very few instances where that actually happens. Rather than saying, “We’re trading you, but we’d like to bring you back” sounds a lot different than, “We do really want to extend you. In fact, we want to so badly that we don’t want you to even taste another team’s clubhouse. 

5. I think there’s also psychology involved. Particularly on the heels of last year, trading Jeffers sends a brutal message to the remaining players. I don’t want to do that. Conversely, keeping him sends a message that the FO is committed, particularly if they pair it with modest adds, perhaps a rental starting pitcher for a modest prospect or a reliever for the same. I’m talking a Sergio Romo for Lewin Diaz-level trade.

6. Similarly, in the context of their fan PR, trading Jeffers sends a brutal message to fans. Keeping him and even making some minor trades to add communicates to fans that they are trying. Giving him a QO and seeing him decline sends a positive message that they are trying. Giving him a QO and having him accept it sends a positive message. Yes, folks on TD will be angry that the didn’t get an extension done in those cases, but I’m not sure the general public (the ones on the season-ticket call list) views it quite the same way. 

7. Catchers play a role in pitcher development. I like the thought of the young pitchers having two more months of throwing to the veteran catcher. I think keeping Jeffers has a better chance of contributing to pitcher development than trading him does. 

8. Keeping him helps their chances for 2026. Does keeping him turn them into World Series contenders? No, but even a first-round loss contributes to ticket sales that will be significant on the heels of the PR debacles of the last several off seasons.

Those are nuanced reasons for keeping him. None of them is reason by itself. The composite of them may or may not convince you, but I offer them as additional factors that move the conversation past “trade him or lose him for nothing” as the only consideration.

[SteveLV]

Two thoughts, and the first is dead obvious:

1)  It depends on the trade offer coming back.

2) I would hope and expect the Twins have had or will have a discussion with Jeffers and Boras about what they are looking for in the next contract.

In a perfect world the market heats up and the Twins get excellent value for Jeffers, then open up the Pohlad wallet and sign him to an extension this off-season to, hopefully, complete his career with the Twins where it appears he is happy to play.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

It would have to be one heck of a return if our best hitter is traded while ownership claims we are all in on being competitive. One of the best catchers in the league seems like he'd be a good investment to extend or at the very least, give him the QO.

On the business end, I understand trading a guy on an expiring contract to get something for him. Strike while the iron is hot and all. But this particular player is probably top 5 in the league at his position, give or take. That kind of player is not easily replaced, nor is his production.