Why Another Twins Trade Deadline Selloff Doesn’t Make Sense

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, ashbury said:

 

Both these positions could be true.  I could see both teams turning thumbs down at this trade deadline.

Boston is pretty happy with their pitching, so they do not make this trade in my opinion. Yes, the Red Sox like Ryan and tried to pry him away a year ago from the Twins. So thumbs down from Boston. 

The Twins don't need to get another learning on the job starting pitcher at the expense of losing their top starter. Minnesota might listen if Boston includes Franklin Arias but we already have said that the Red Sox are not looking for pitching. In a straight trade, the Twins don't even think for two seconds before saying "No".

Two things are true in this case.

Further, the Twins will need to be enticed with an offer they cannot refuse, which I'm guessing would need to include a top ten prospect and that seems unlikely from the viewpoint of the other side. I will be surprised if Ryan is traded.

[HarmonK03]

33 minutes ago, TL said:

It would be a (great) problem to have if they could stay healthy, but Buck, E-Rod and Jenkins - your ideal starting 3 - have certainly shown injuries may follow them throughout their careers. I imagine there are enough at bats for Keaschall, Roden and one of Martin/Gonzalez/Mendez with injuries, DH, and other rest for the starters. 

I think we’ve all been very happy with Larnach’s bat this year, but with his expected ‘27 salary and sub par defense he looks like a guy who will be gone whether at trade deadline or the offseason. 

I get what you are saying about injuries.  Buck has been mostly healthy the last two years.  That is what you have a forth outfielder for.  As for ERod, some of his injuries have come from dumb plays like diving into first base, can he get smarter as he gets experience you have to hope so. And Jenkins is only 21, I think it is too early to say he will be injury prone for his career.  And he seems to have had a lot of soft tissue injuries, the team needs to help him find a training regimen to minimize these.  And he is not someone that should be on a straight platoon.  So the point still remains they can't go into 2027 with six outfielders in St. Paul.  They still will need to make some moves.

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The "anything can happen," mentality is what has kept this team locked into mediocrity or worse for the last few years. 

The mediocrity is more related to a failure to act on potential obvious transactions and a set of directives that pushed defense down to a minimum in importance. Changes have been made and more are coming. The team is slowly improving in incremental steps. A simple look at the Opening Day defense versus now is pretty drastic.

It isn't certain how the team can take a big step but perhaps a couple of prospects stepping into regular positions in August may be a thing. A big trade is also possible. While there is no such thing as too much depth within an organization, it might work to move a couple of the Twins prospects in the #4-10 rankings if the right player is available.

It seems like we are itching for the team to leap in a direction, which may not happen. The next 16 games will give us and the organization a clue to where the Twins are headed. A team picked to finish at the bottom of their division and the American League has created enough excitement that we are paying attention.

[BrokenCompass]

Get rid of Jeffers. He's as good as he'll ever be, Twins have two other decent catchers on the roster and plenty in the farm system. 

[Mike Sixel]

32 minutes ago, TL said:

That’s not accurate. Nobody is saying to not trade players if you’re BAD. But if you have a real chance to make the playoffs, especially after the last two years, you take it. And making a run may also lead to an increase in payroll next year - which will have a bigger benefit on winning than the prospect value you’d likely get for Jeffers and definitely for Bell.

Ryan will still be a valuable chip in the offseason regardless. 

The argument that a playoff run is more valuable than a prospect might be true. That's why I think they don't sell.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Winning organization trade their best players at the deadline and in the off-season when they are not good in that given year.  What did St. Louis do this last off-season.  The brewers have 13 players on pace to have more than 1.5 WAR.  Seven were drafted and six were acquired as prospects. 

We are neither good nor bad so what do you do?  Let's just keep in mind that we would not even have Ryan or Duran had they followed your doctrine.  Let's keep in mind that Jeffers would make us a little better in a year when we are mediocre.  He could return a player that contributes for 6-7 years.

Jeffers can help us win the pennant today. But only if he plays for the Twins.  I do see your points and they are reasonable. However I want the Twins to play for today. Tomorrow never arrives. It's always a day away. 

[Milwaukee-Jeff]

This year is a weird one, especially for the AL Central. The White Sox have improved (when you're on the bottom, no place to go but up) and everyone else is mediocre, including the Twins.

Still, the Twins have outperformed what most people expected. The trade deadline selloff last year was demoralizing for fans so most expectations coming into '26 were justifiably low.

Will Tait and Abel (from the Phillies for Duran) become regulars, even stars? Same with Rojas and Roden (from the Jays for Varland and France). Would the 2026 Twins be better if Duran and Varland will still around? We'll never know.

I would keep Ryan until at least the offseason. IF the Twins manage to sneak into the playoffs, it would be a morale boost for the players and the fans.

I assume that some of the prospects now in AAA will get a call up this season. That might be further cause for optimism. Fans want to see the likes of Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodriguez, Gonzalez and possibly Houston.

Baseball is a business. If Tom Pohlad wants to make money, he needs to invest in some FA talent to make/keep the team competetive. The only was to put people back in the seats if for the management to show commitment to winning,

[Jeff K]

Do NOT trade Ryan.  Contend, don't contend, leave him on the team.  They can trade in the off-season or try to extend.

Do try to trade Jeffers IF you can get a reliever that can help the team.  Doesn't have to be an 8th or 9th inning guy, but a good depth piece.

Do trade either larnach or Bell.  The team needs flexibility and two DH's doesn't cut it.  Either (Larnach especially) or Bell should be able to bring a solid relief pitcher.  It's time to find out about Walker Jenkins.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

14 hours ago, LyleCole said:

Again, this is a mediocre team, not a real competitive team.

Regardless, the underlying reason to me is that the ownership of the Twins will never budget the roster to be competitive.  If they intend on signing Ryan Jeffers to a market rate contract, then keep him.  But if they are not willing to pay him $20 million a season then get the best offer for him.   ANd if they willing to pay Joe Ryan $30+ million, the same.   And if they have that standard, why keep Byron Buxton if we can find a good trade candidate for him.  Either do it all one way, or the other.  

I understand your points. However I say keep the major league roster and play today like your hair is on fire. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

6 minutes ago, Milwaukee-Jeff said:

This year is a weird one, especially for the AL Central. The White Sox have improved (when you're on the bottom, no place to go but up) and everyone else is mediocre, including the Twins.

Still, the Twins have outperformed what most people expected. The trade deadline selloff last year was demoralizing for fans so most expectations coming into '26 were justifiably low.

Will Tait and Abel (from the Phillies for Duran) become regulars, even stars? Same with Rojas and Roden (from the Jays for Varland and France). Would the 2026 Twins be better if Duran and Varland will still around? We'll never know.

I would keep Ryan until at least the offseason. IF the Twins manage to sneak into the playoffs, it would be a morale boost for the players and the fans.

I assume that some of the prospects now in AAA will get a call up this season. That might be further cause for optimism. Fans want to see the likes of Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodriguez, Gonzalez and possibly Houston.

Baseball is a business. If Tom Pohlad wants to make money, he needs to invest in some FA talent to make/keep the team competetive. The only was to put people back in the seats if for the management to show commitment to winning,

The Savanah Bananas are a baseball business.  The Minnesota Twins need to be about winning by playing baseball as it is meant to be played...with everything on the line every day. 

[Linus]

14 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Jeffers can help us win the pennant today. But only if he plays for the Twins.  I do see your points and they are reasonable. However I want the Twins to play for today. Tomorrow never arrives. It's always a day away. 

This club is not winning the pennant. By far, the most likely outcome is they don’t make the playoffs. So by all means less pass up a golden opportunity to be able to win the pennant in 2028. 

[jorgenswest]

The Twins don’t need to be buyers or sellers. They need to be opportunists. Every player has value to this team. No one should be traded for whatever they can get.

Any player should be traded if a team offers significantly beyond that value. I would trade both Jeffers and Caratini if those deals were overpays. I would trade Ryan if an offer is presented that is beyond his significant value to this team. Bell has value as they compete for a wild card spot but he also has the lowest return bar to me. I think there is value in giving Wallner one last chance to show he is the hitter we have seen in previous seasons. He is the closest to that the best they can get bar. 

[tony&rodney]

29 minutes ago, Milwaukee-Jeff said:

If Tom Pohlad wants to make money, he needs to invest in some FA talent to make/keep the team competetive.

On the surface this seems like a really good plan. Look over the free agents for the coming offseason and suggest a signing. There may be a pitcher or two but the pickings are slim among position players. The best free agents have commanded Carlos Correa type deals and these are not especially helpful for middle market clubs.

The Twins may find that getting lucky with their two top prospects emerging and making a few judicious trades  the best avenue to competing.

[ebbillings]

I think that trading Bell at the deadline makes a lot of sense for this Twins roster. As much as I have enjoyed watching him play for the Twins, his departure would allow players like Lewis and Larnach to DH more frequently and provide room in the field and on the roster for someone like Culpepper or Rodriguez (health permitting). 

[TheLeviathan]

We may have lost the plot on the value of Josh Bell or Trevor Larnach if we're seriously suggesting moving Luke Keaschall to a weak-side platoon in order to accommodate them on the roster.

[tony&rodney]

It all comes down to consistently good pitching. The offense has been reasonable. The defense is vastly better than at the beginning of the season and can still improve. There are a couple of AAA players who may make a difference in August and September. But the work of Ryan, Ober, Bradley, Matthews, and whomever fills the fifth rotation spot (hopefully a healthy Prielipp) and the bullpen will determine how the rest of the year plays out. 

I understand that many people do not see the current team as a playoff team much less a roster that can win a few playoff series. Nevertheless, I'm ready to see the Twins bring in a few relief pitchers and make a few gamble type trades. What does San Diego want for their relief pitchers? Can Ryan Jeffers bring in a useful relief pitcher? I'm also willing to dangle a guy who has been performing well, Trevor Larnach. The Twins need a ton of luck and good health but they can win some series. I'm wanting to see how things go in the next 16 games.

[TheLeviathan]

To the larger point....."in playoff contention" is such a load-bearing phrase in this conversation.  The diluted playoff field has simply created this misnomer in the name of exciting more fanbases.  (It's also, IMO, largely hurt the trade deadline as an exciting concept in MLB)

We're not contenders.  We've scrapped and clawed and punched above our weight class....but contenders we are not.  Investing assets in short term rentals chasing that phantom hurts our actual future.  We have something brewing with the young players on the cusp in this organization and the path to truly turning the corner and putting butts back in the seats is true contention.  Not "we're one game under .500 but look at the wild card standings!" self delusion.

Selling at the deadline is not going to hurt fan morale anymore than the level it is currently at.  "Right sizing" did the heavy lifting there.  Losing Trevor Larnach isn't going to make Steve from Shakopee burn his jersey in effigy.

The only real question for me - sell on Bell, Larnach, Jeffers for sure.  This should be a no brainer - is Ryan.  I don't have the necessary info to know what to do on Ryan.  He should be shopped....but traded?  Well that depends on return.  It also depends on the message he's given the FO on his willingness to sign an extension.  If he's hell bent on FA and the team knows it...then he is also a no brainer to sell.

Fans will come back for a winner.  We quite literally do not have a "winner" right now.  Selling is the best path no matter how much we'd like to pretend it isn't when we look at the WC standings.

[tony&rodney]

5 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

We may have lost the plot on the value of Josh Bell or Trevor Larnach if we're seriously suggesting moving Luke Keaschall to a weak-side platoon in order to accommodate them on the roster.

This seems like a fair comment, but it raises a question in my mind. Where do you see Luke Keaschall playing and does he hold a fielding position in 2027?

FWIW, I would not move LK to a platoon role.

[TheLeviathan]

Just now, tony&rodney said:

This seems like a fair comment, but it raises a question in my mind. Where do you see Luke Keaschall playing and does he hold a fielding position in 2027?

FWIW, I would not move LK to a platoon role.

I think we probably end up starting him in LF in the future and that's really the only spot he should be in.  He seems to have good range out there and that fits well with other players we've parked in that spot with similar rangy attributes.  

If it doesn't work in LF, I don't see it working anywhere.  You also can't have him in LF with a limited power profile and similar power deficits at 3B, 1B, RF, etc. and hope to field a lineup that can contend.

[tony&rodney]

9 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I think we probably end up starting him in LF in the future and that's really the only spot he should be in.  He seems to have good range out there and that fits well with other players we've parked in that spot with similar rangy attributes.  

If it doesn't work in LF, I don't see it working anywhere.  You also can't have him in LF with a limited power profile and similar power deficits at 3B, 1B, RF, etc. and hope to field a lineup that can contend.

Does this make Keaschall a player that the Twins should float for any teams willing to trade for him? Related .... Is Keaschall's value at a peak?

[HarmonK03]

1 hour ago, Milwaukee-Jeff said:

Baseball is a business. If Tom Pohlad wants to make money, he needs to invest in some FA talent to make/keep the team competetive

First Tom Pohlad has to hire someone competent to run the front office that can identify the right FA's to bring in and fill the holes on the roster.  And this person needs to be improve the player development side of operations.

Just signing someone for the sake of making a signing does no good.

 

[TL]

Assuming health and barring trades the likelihood is that Buxton Jenkins and E-Rod are the starting outfielders next year. Keaschall plays against lefties and otherwise gives those 3 a break. Also starts when one of those three is injured.

That is super valuable with probably close to 500 ABs. Still not a “starter” if you can only choose 3. 

[DannySD]

They pretty much have to trade either Jeffers or Jackson. Can't go the year with 3 active catchers, don't want to lose them for nothing. Agreed that Bell will stay and I think they'll mostly keep the team together otherwise, maybe trade Wallner, Martin. 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Jeffers can help us win the pennant today. But only if he plays for the Twins.  I do see your points and they are reasonable. However I want the Twins to play for today. Tomorrow never arrives. It's always a day away. 

You have captured the essence of how and why fans differ in opinion.  Some prefer to focus on the right now and not worry about the long-term effect.  That's true beyond baseball as well.  Others are more concerned about the effect over several years as opposed to a given year.  We hear baseball executives speak of this balance all the time.  I am more concerned with building sustainable success in any given year that we don't have a legit contender.  IMO, legitimacy is not defined as a reasonable chance at the last wild card spot.  

My opinion changes quite a bit if they go 9-5 the remainder of the month.  If they go 6-8, I am selling.

I would probably play both sides of the fence if they go 8-6 or 7-7.  I would acquire at least one good RP.  Selling would be a product of the return.  Jeffers and Larnach are gone if the trade returns meaningful prospects.  I would not sit on any expiring contracts that could return a substantive player in a year when we had a 500 team.  Larnach is expendable because of his defensive limitations and viable replacements.  Ryan just depends on the return.  It would have to be very good. 

 

[KirbyDome89]

11 hours ago, ashbury said:

The "right-size the payroll" mentality is what has kept this team locked into mediocrity or worse for the last few years. 

Does a better relief arm(s) at the 2023 deadline change the postseason outcome? 

Who and where are they adding in 2024 that's non-periphery? LF I guess? That would've been a platoon role though. SP? Ok, but they had tremendous pitching health/production that season. 

Did "right sizing," hurt this club? No doubt, it's less cushion to work with, but poor roster construction and "running it back," alongside a "core," group that flopped hard probably has more to do with the woes. 

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Does this make Keaschall a player that the Twins should float for any teams willing to trade for him? Related .... Is Keaschall's value at a peak?

It might be.  If we were seriously looking at "contending" that would be the real conversation to have.

All I hear is half measures about some rental guy to pitch the 7th with his middling ERA.

[SotaSports in NM]

I'm surprised I haven't seen anyone mention the similarities between Bell's 2026 season Cruz's 2021 season. Both are mostly DH. Cruz had 2 more hits and 6 more HRs. But Bell has 10 more RBIs (granted, with more ABs). Obviously Cruz was having a much better year because his OPS is about 160 points higher, but y'all recall that we got Joe Ryan in that trade...

 

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The mediocrity is more related to a failure to act on potential obvious transactions and a set of directives that pushed defense down to a minimum in importance. Changes have been made and more are coming. The team is slowly improving in incremental steps. A simple look at the Opening Day defense versus now is pretty drastic.

It isn't certain how the team can take a big step but perhaps a couple of prospects stepping into regular positions in August may be a thing. A big trade is also possible. While there is no such thing as too much depth within an organization, it might work to move a couple of the Twins prospects in the #4-10 rankings if the right player is available.

It seems like we are itching for the team to leap in a direction, which may not happen. The next 16 games will give us and the organization a clue to where the Twins are headed. A team picked to finish at the bottom of their division and the American League has created enough excitement that we are paying attention.

Yeah, changes have been made, and I wish I could believe that was a new organizational directive, but I think Matt Wallner is still allowed to be a butcher in RF if he's putting up offensive numbers similar to last season. I also very much doubt Royce is playing 1B if he doesn't completely crash out either. Credit where it's due for moving Keaschall though. 

I'm out on rentals. I feel like the return won't be that big if guys like GG or Rojas are headlining the deal, but I'm not a prospect hound, nor do I really get into the weeds with hypothetical swaps. 

Idk if 16 more games tell us anything we don't already know about this team. 

[Andy MacPhail]

I didn't like last year's sell-off, only the Jax/ Bradley trade made sense, That said, while I'm not for a sell-off, some trades do make a lot of sense.

[LyleCole]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I understand your points. However I say keep the major league roster and play today like your hair is on fire. 

Again, I want to make clear that this is conditioned on the assumption that the Twins ownership will never pay the market value for their own free agents nor add market value free agents or trade acquisitions.  

I really don't know what "hair on fire" means?  Does that mean pull out all stops?   For example, with a terrible bullpen should they pitch Joe Ryan to 120+ pitches a game?  Should they ignore any of Connor Priellips arm issues?  Just curious.

At the same time,  ownership, management, and the fans should take a look at the long term picture and make the decisions that are best in that view given whatever financial constraints exist.  Given the nature of our ownership (cheap), the best long term moves are to sell everything that isn't locked down and will not be part of that rebuild.   That is Buxton (32 years old), Bell (33), Larnach (29), Jeffers (29), Joe Ryan (30).  

This is a mediocre team at best with an ownership who will not compete.   Even more,  this team is not necessarily a young team, with just one regular position player and one reliever under the age of 25.  The core of this current roster does not have the career path to wait until the prospect pieces are gradually put into place.   That takes time because players need experience at the highest level and not every prospect is going to be a major league player no matter how promising their minor league career.

The blue print is the 87-91 Minnesota team.  You bring in the prospects as a huge group (Hrbek, Laudner, Gaetti, Eisenreich,  Faedo, Brunansky, Randy Johnson, Randy Bush, Viola, Havens, OConnor).   You lose a lot of games (but that would be a tanking activity getting us to the top of the modern MLB draft).  Some of those guys do not work out for one reason or the other so you bring in a Greg Gagne, Gene Larkin and Kirby Pucket to replace them.  And then at the critical time bring in the right players via trades (Gladden, Jeff Reardon, Bert Blyleven, Roy Smalley, Don Baylor) to fill the remaining holes.