Week in Review: The Pendulum Swings

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

The Weekly Nutshell:
The last time the Twins had a .500 record was April 22nd. They've come close to getting back a couple times, but whenever a hot streak draws Minnesota back toward equilibrium, they invariably fall into a backslide that pushes them into the depths and casts doubt on their viability. 

It happened again this past week — the Twins entered with some momentum coming off a 5-1 road trip, then got swept by Los Angeles before eking out a series victory against Colorado with 19 runs allowed in three games. Losing to the MLB-leading Dodgers is no travesty, but getting knocked around by a Rockies team on pace for nearly 100 losses was rough. 

The underwhelming state of the American League makes it difficult to write the Twins off, even as they continually fail to get back above water. At the same time, this team is so blatantly short on relievers, and consequentially so incapable of locking into a prolonged stretch of winning, that it's hard to view them as any kind of legitimate contender. With the trade deadline now just over a month away, the stakes are fairly high in making that determination and choosing a course.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/22 through Sun, 6/28
***
Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 40-45)
Run Differential Last Week: -12 (Overall: -30)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (4.5 GB) 

Latest Game Results

Game 80 | LAD 2, MIN 1: Offense Goes Silent After Buxton's Early Blast

• Matthews: 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K

Game 81 | LAD 12, MIN 3: Dodgers Take Control Early and Pull Away Late

• Rogers: 1 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 0 K

Game 82 | LAD 4, MIN 3: Ohtani Outshines Ryan, Betts Delivers on Both Sides

• Ryan: 6 IP, 4 ER, 9 K, 1 BB

Game 83 | MIN 9, COL 8 (10): Twins Battle Back to Win After Bullpen Collapse

• Buxton: 3-5, 2 RBI

Game 84 | COL 8, MIN 5: Rockies Even Series Behind Goodman's Three Homers

• Funderburk, Raya: 3 IP, 5 ER

Game 85 | MIN 3, COL 2: Prielipp Dominates, Clemens and Kreidler Go Deep 

• Prielipp: 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 10 K

NEWS & NOTES

With Joe Ryan's scheduled start on Tuesday being delayed by illness, the Twins turned to newly activated Kendry Rojas as a fill-in starter and called up veteran journeyman Austin Voth, signed to a minor-league contract earlier this month, as a bulk arm. Rojas pitched okay, allowing just one run in two innings but needing 50 pitches to get through them. Voth got rocked for five earned runs on 11 hits in four innings, taking a lopsided loss on the chin. Both were sent out for fresh arms the following day.

By optioning Rojas and designating Voth for assignment, the Twins made room for the return of Kody Funderburk and the arrival of Marco Raya. Unfortunately, these reinforcements didn't bring much relief in a staggeringly bad week for the bullpen. More on that later.

Down in the minors, Kaelen Culpepper made his official return to the Saints lineup on Sunday, batting second as designated hitter. He went 0-for-4, but the call-up watch is back on. 

Also on Sunday, Bailey Ober made his first rehab start in Single-A, allowing three earned runs in 3 ⅓ innings while striking out one of 16 batters faced. Not the most inspiring result, but a step in the right direction at least. Out for a month due to elbow inflammation, Ober is on the comeback trail for a Twins rotation that could use some help. 

They sadly won't be getting it from Mick Abel, who was tabbed for arthroscopic elbow surgery after experiencing a setback near the end of his own rehab. Not a worst-case scenario, but a huge bummer. No timetable has been officially announced but he's looking at a multi-month recovery, putting Abel at risk of missing the remainder of the season.

HIGHLIGHTS

Derek Shelton started using Trevor Larnach in the leadoff spot for the first time earlier this month and he's been sticking to it; the outfielder hasn't hit anywhere other than first in the lineup in his last 13 starts. He's responded very well atop the order as one of Minnesota's best hitters in the month of June. Last week he went 6-for-15 with three doubles and three RBIs, pushing his batting average to .288.

Brooks Lee is enjoying an excellent second half of June, powering the bottom half of the lineup with steady power output. The third baseman went deep twice more last week, pushing his season total to 14. We've seen these spurts of production from Lee often enough, but the question is whether he can harness it for more than a week or two rather than lapsing back into another extended slump. 

I'm very encouraged by the plate discipline — he's struck out just three times against seven walks in his past 73 plate appearances, the kind of development that fuels belief he could actually be turning a corner.

 

Kody Clemens homered twice and also showed a nice touch of patience, drawing as many walks in five games (3) as he had in his previous 23. Clemens is one of three Twins hitters, along with Lee and Byron Buxton, who are on pace to hit 25-plus home runs this year. Ryan Kreidler would be on a similar pace if he were a full-time player — he tallied his fifth long ball in his 104th plate appearance on Sunday — and he's batting .290/.365/.527. One of the most refreshing surprises of the season so far.

While it was a rough week for the pitching staff overall, the starters were on point. Zebby Matthews opened things up on Monday with his second consecutive quality start, limiting a potent Dodgers lineup to two solo homers in six innings. Taj Bradley delivered one of his finest starts of the season on Friday, tossing seven innings of two-run ball before the bottom fell out on the bullpen. 

Connor Prielipp's performance on Sunday was especially invigorating. He hadn't pitched in nine days as the Twins found a way to get him a little extended break, and that seemed to pay off: he looked as impressive as he ever has on a big-league mound. Prielipp struck out a career-high 10 batters with no walks, piling up 20 swinging strikes — most for any Twins starter this year — and featuring a filthy curveball that was giving Colorado hitters fits. 

Prielipp has had his ups and downs as a rookie, with an ERA barely under five, but on days like this one he shows the makings of a frontline starter. For the Twins, managing his workload and guiding him toward a stong, healthy finish will be one of the most important second-half storylines.

 

LOWLIGHTS

During the first two months of the season, the Twins pitching staff held its own. Through 55 games, they ranked 11th among MLB teams in fWAR, 17th in ERA, and 15th in FIP. Not amazing, but respectable. Since late May, things have taken a turn toward disaster. Over their past 30 games the Twins rank dead last in ERA at 6.22, with the second-lowest WAR in the American League.

The bullpen has largely been at the center of this free fall, and this was absolutely the case last week. Multiple competitive games got completely out of hand in the late innings as relievers took turns melting down on the mound, and on Friday night a seven-run lead evaporated in the blink of an eye. It was Ludacris — er, ludicrous — to behold.  

The week saw Funderburk, Eric Orze and Taylor Rogers combine to yield 12 earned runs in six innings of work, with more walks (5) than strikeouts (4). Voth got shelled in his lone appearance. Raya showed some decent signs in his MLB debut on Saturday night, but gave up a two-run homer and struck out only one of nine batters faced.

There have some promising performances from the likes of Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gómez, and you'll certainly live with a guy like Raya taking his lumps, but too many innings are going to plainly sub-par pitchers that don't offer much in the way of future growth potential. A week like this one feels extremely demoralizing, especially with the way it ended: Anthony Banda, who's been one of the team's few consistently effective relievers (2.52 ERA in his past 25 innings), walked off the mound in the ninth on Sunday with an apparent injury, waving for trainers and pulling himself quickly. We'll see how serious it is, but any length of absence would be a potentially devastating blow to Minnesota's already thin late-inning mix. 

Elsewhere, the Twins have soured enough on Luke Keaschall's defense at second base that they've finally begun transitioning him away from the dirt. He made his first career start in right field on Friday and was back out there again on Sunday. Keaschall looks fine in right, though like Austin Martin, he's a bit of an odd fit at the position as a very speedy guy with a very weak arm, embodying more of a traditional LF profile. Alas, the Twins remain steadfast in their commitment to keeping Larnach in left.

Moving from second base to right field raises the standard offensively for Keaschall, who is slugging .321 on the season. He notched one single in 15 at-bats last week and his OPS is down below .650. Not good enough. I'm curious to see what the plan is for the 23-year-old going forward because the outfield corners are crowded with talent, and he just hasn't shown signs of being the kind of impact bat you need out there. That said, I don't know where else his glove will play.

TRENDING STORYLINE

What are the Twins going to do about their bullpen? It's a really frustrating scene. Their offense leads the AL in runs scored, and is awaiting the return of Ryan Jeffers plus the arrivals of Culpepper, Walker Jenkins and others. They're giving us enough to believe in on that side. The starters have been perfectly serviceable with flashes of brilliance. They've got a worthy ace: Ryan is pitching as well as anybody in the league. Bradley and Matthews are back on track, and Prielipp is coming off a brilliant start. 

But that bullpen is a brutal buzzkill. It's sabotaging an otherwise very capable team, which is exactly the scenario many of us feared coming into the season. Theoretically, relief pitching is one of the easier weaknesses to address during the season, but the Twins are direly short-handed right now, as demonstrated by the endless wave of waiver pickups like Voth and Justin Lawrence. If Banda's down for any significant period of time, replacing his production won't be easy. The trade deadline is one avenue to add, but it's still five weeks away and Twins need to stay in the fight up until then to justify any kind of short-term aggressiveness. 

At this point, our best hope is that Raya can lock in and channel what he was doing in Triple-A, where he had a 24-to-1 K/BB ratio in his past 14 appearances. There's a lot riding on his immediate success. Part of me would like to see Rojas come back up in relief, but I also wonder how much the Twins are prioritizing keeping him stretched out as starting depth.

If any of Pablo López, David Festa or Abel were healthy it might be a different story, but with all those guys out, converting starters into relief isn't a luxury the Twins can necessarily afford, even if it is their clear long-term strategy for rebuilding the bullpen. 

LOOKING AHEAD

When the Twins hosted Houston at Target Field back in mid-May, the Astros were in a bad, bad place. They were 10 games below .500 and reeling after the loss of Carlos Correa. Minnesota took advantage by winning two of three. But the Astros are playing much better ball of late, with a 22-13 record since the two clubs last met. They've won five consecutive series, including four against AL Central opponents. Houston is always a tough place for the Twins to visit and win.

Granted, not as tough as the Bronx. The Yankees are battling the Rays for first place in the East, and they have the best run differential in the AL. The Twins will see three quality starters in the series but, as of now, it looks like they'll avoid Cy Young front-runner Cam Schlittler. 

This road trip has a bit of a make-or-break feel given the timing. The clock is ticking and the season is no longer young. Can these Twins assert themselves against two large-market heavyweights or will they slink further below .500 as the All-Star break approaches?

MONDAY, JUNE 29: TWINS @ ASTROS — RHP Zebby Matthews v. RHP Peter Lambert
TUESDAY, JUNE 30: TWINS @ ASTROS — RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Mike Burrows
WEDNESDAY, JULY 1: TWINS @ ASTROS — RHP Taj Bradley v. RHP Tatsuya Imai
FRIDAY, JULY 3: TWINS @ YANKEES — RHP Mike Paredes v. RHP Gerrit Cole
SATURDAY, JULY 4: TWINS @ YANKEES — LHP Connor Prielipp v. LHP Carlos Rodon
SUNDAY, JULY 5: TWINS @ YANKEES — RHP Zebby Matthews v. LHP Ryan Weathers

 

 

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[krink]

I was impressed by Paredes on Saturday. He did a fair job at limiting the damage - we could have been a contender if it wasn’t once again for the bullpen! Very poor substitution choices were made across the Rockies series… Those wins were by the skin of our teeth!

[Saxophone Joe]

Louis Varland lost it in the 9th today for the Blue Jays. Just saying 🤷🏼‍♂️

Silver linings: Bullpen did its job today for the Twins, and in the two one-run losses against LA. 
 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Any word on Banda? Assuming he’s now out through the ASB, time to get either Rojas back or promote CJ Culpepper or, in my view, do both. I would promote Culpepper to replace Funderburk. Rojas comes up as an injury replacement for Banda who goes on the IL, otherwise both Rojas and Lawyerson have to stay down in AAA until their 15 days are up before they can come back. I understand they would like to stretch out Rojas as a starter, but it looks like Ober is close. I would rather have Rojas as a late inning reliever for this season and stretching back out for next year. When Ober comes back, Parades can move to the bullpen and Adams can  go back down. 
 

Here’s what I would do for the upcoming road trip. Roden or Wallner comes up for Fedko. Which ever one comes up plays RF in Houston since they’re starting three right handed pitchers. I go with Roden since I have no interest in seeing Wallner try to field in the outfield again. Rojas and Culpepper come up for Banda and Funderburk for some bullpen help.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree on calling up a LH OF for Houston. Nice writing, as always, Nick. 

 

[mrguy]

50 minutes ago, krink said:

I was impressed by Paredes on Saturday. He did a fair job at limiting the damage - we could have been a contender if it wasn’t once again for the bullpen! Very poor substitution choices were made across the Rockies series… Those wins were by the skin of our teeth!

I do think he is a few tweaks away from really breaking out. His stuff has steadily been profiling better across his appearances alongside the fact that he's going longer into appearances, and his velocity was up yesterday across the board too. Just something needs to be done to improve his approach against guys to really optimize the use of that stuff. I think a team as aggressive as the rockies was a good learning experience despite what the rockies' record suggests, they were going after everything he offered(43 chase% in Saturday's game) and you could see one wrong choice would get punished quickly

[karcherd]

7 minutes ago, mrguy said:

I do think he is a few tweaks away from really breaking out. His stuff has steadily been profiling better across his appearances alongside the fact that he's going longer into appearances, and his velocity was up yesterday across the board too. Just something needs to be done to improve his approach against guys to really optimize the use of that stuff. I think a team as aggressive as the rockies was a good learning experience despite what the rockies' record suggests, they were going after everything he offered(43 chase% in Saturday's game) and you could see one wrong choice would get punished quickly

This is a learning curve for Paredes like any young pitcher and I hope and think he can figure it out.

I just saw the Rockies play two games against Boston and they are a free swinging team, they are up there to take their hacks.  So it was a good team for Paredes to face.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Ryan Kreidler would be on a similar pace if he were a full-time player — he tallied his fifth long ball in his 104th plate appearance on Sunday — and he's batting .290/.365/.527. One of the most refreshing surprises of the season so far.

Kreidler is the most intriguing development this year. If he figured out how to hit at the MLB level, we’ve got a building block. It’s too early to tell, but early signs are good.

He needs to be playing SS every day for the immediate future. I’m done platooning him with Gray 

[karcherd]

What exactly is the plan for Rojas.  I get letting him only throw 2 innings and 50 pitches on Tuesday as it was only his second outing back from the IL.  But then today he only threw 33 pitches, if they are ramping him up to be a starter why not let him go another 1 or 2 innings.  Like everything with this team, do they have any kind of plan, or do they just sit and wing it day by day.

[Parfigliano]

6 minutes ago, karcherd said:

What exactly is the plan for Rojas.  I get letting him only throw 2 innings and 50 pitches on Tuesday as it was only his second outing back from the IL.  But then today he only threw 33 pitches, if they are ramping him up to be a starter why not let him go another 1 or 2 innings.  Like everything with this team, do they have any kind of plan, or do they just sit and wing it day by day.

Eye test says "wing it."