Trading Trevor Larnach Just Makes Too Much Sense

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

There's a lot of talk right now about what the Twins should—or shouldn't—do at this summer's trade deadline. Of course, last summer's fire sale left a sour taste in the mouths of Twins fans. Watching the front office move multiple veterans while the team drifted out of contention wasn't exactly fun, and it's understandable why many fans would prefer to avoid a repeat of that experience. The reality, though, is that another selling deadline is more likely than any other path.

The Twins currently sit five games below .500 and own a 19-27 record against teams with winning records. There's still time to climb back into the race, but the margin for error is shrinking, and this team hasn't consistently shown that it's capable of beating quality opponents. Even if they don't become full-on sellers, it's very clear that moves have to be made. I think the easiest move to make this summer is trading Trevor Larnach.

Moving Larnach makes sense for several reasons. The first is that he's in the middle of the best season of his major-league career. Entering Tuesday night’s game, Larnach is hitting .280/.377/.425. Both the batting average and the on-base percentage would be new career highs. While the power output hasn't quite lined up with previous years, there's still plenty to like about what he's done offensively. His strikeout rate is notably lower than it has been in previous years. He's controlling the strike zone better than ever, by sitting on fastballs and making sure he's on time when they come.

Larnach is playing really good baseball, and that's part of why the Twins should consider trading him. It's important to acknowledge that he’s 29 years old. He's very much in the prime of his career right now, and if the Twins aren't a truly competitive team, that's not necessarily the type of player profile that makes the most sense to keep around. If the organization believes they can earn a Wild Card spot or even win the AL Central, then you're not trading Larnach, and essentially everything I say from here on out can be disregarded. But if the Twins are still trying to figure out what the next great team looks like, then maximizing the value of players in their prime should be a priority.

There's also the contract aspect. Larnach has one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining before he reaches free agency. That means the Twins still have some team control left, which increases his value on the trade market. If they were to wait beyond this summer, they'd be dealing with a player entering a contract year. Naturally, that's going to reduce the return compared to what they could get now. For someone who's currently having the best season of his career, this may very well be the moment when his value is at its highest.

Then there's the roster construction side of things. If the Twins did decide to trade Larnach, there would be no shortage of candidates to step up in his absence. Emmanuel Rodriguez has been on the minds of Twins fans for months. He's currently working his way back from injury, but assuming he's healthy later this summer, there's a very good chance he gets an opportunity to see major-league action. Left field would be one of the easiest pathways to getting his bat into the lineup. Alan Roden recently returned from his own injured list stint and has been red-hot at Triple-A. At one point during spring training, it looked like he had a legitimate chance to earn an Opening Day roster spot before ultimately falling short. He's done nothing but continue hitting since then; it feels like he's earned an opportunity.

You also have Walker Jenkins, the organization's top prospect, waiting in the wings. Jenkins could easily force his way into the conversation before the season is over, and frankly, it would be nice to see him do so. Staying on the field will be the biggest obstacle, but health permitting, he should earn an opportunity. Hendry Mendez is another intriguing option. While he doesn't receive quite as much attention as Rodriguez or Jenkins, he's continued to put himself on the radar and could make his major-league debut during the second half.

And let's not forget about Matt Wallner. Wallner's name has surfaced in trade conversations as well, but as things currently stand, he's still on the 40-man roster and remains another option. He certainly has less trade value than Larnach right now, and there's more team control remaining, so of the two, it makes more sense to move Larnach if the team is in sell mode this summer.

That's five names that could immediately become part of the equation if the Twins decide to move on from Larnach. Even during a career year, he simply isn't producing at a level that makes him completely irreplaceable. He's a good player, but he's also playing a position where the Twins have an abundance of young talent waiting for opportunities. They can barely find playing time for all the outfielders they have in St. Paul, especially after the promotion of Kala'i Rosario. They need to ease the logjam somehow, at some point.

In a different set of circumstances, the Twins might be looking at that group and discussing which prospect could be moved to acquire immediate help for a playoff run. But with the team sitting below .500, the more logical approach may be creating opportunities for those players, rather than blocking them. Keeping Larnach around while simultaneously trying to find at-bats for Rodriguez, Jenkins, Mendez, and Roden becomes increasingly difficult, making Larnach one of the organization's clearest trade candidates.

There are contending teams around baseball that could use corner outfield help. Larnach is productive, affordable, and under team control beyond this season. That's a profile that should generate legitimate interest. Whether the Twins ultimately buy, sell, or try to walk the line somewhere in between, I think it's in their best interest to explore a Larnach trade.

A month from now, if the Twins are sitting two or three games above .500 and firmly in the playoff picture, I'd probably have a change of heart. But as things stand today, trading Trevor Larnach this summer feels about as easy as it gets.

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[bean5302]

The Twins could easily part ways with 2 of 3 (Larnach, Wallner and Bell) and not have any roster issues. Moving all 3 probably wouldn't be an issue if Emma wasn't constantly using this thumb as a built in braking mechanism to stop his momentum on base paths.

Trading Larnach makes the most sense because he shouldn't be part of the long term plans, he's hitting well, and he could potentially help a playoff caliber team with a need.

[MMBoys93]

Agreed here. Larnach has always been a streaky guy and he’s going through one of the best of his career.

I think you look to trade the below. 

One catcher- 3 MLB catchers on the roster. They’re not resigning Jeffers and that’s why they brought in Caratini in the first place. It’s the likely route.

Bell- it’s time to see what they have in former first pick Sabato. 
Clemens- value is extremely high right now. Kreidler can take his super utility position down the road.

This allows them to bring up guys like Roden, Wallner, Sabato, Mendez, Arcia. These moves also clear up room for Royce and Keaschall to continue to play every day and gives the twins flexibility to figure out a position for them. 
 

Larnach and Clemens values are up, and it’s the perfect time to trade them. I know how people feel about Wallner and I’m not far off. I’ve been high on the guy but getting sent down to AAA every year for struggles just seems to be the Twins way. There’s no point in trading him when his value is the worst it’s ever been. Give him the rest of the season and then make a decision, same with Royce. 
 

I’d love to see them keep Ryan and add 3 guys to the pen. They’d still come out ahead on boosting the farm after the position player trades I suggested and give us a little bit to actually cheer for. They’d be a better team.
 

Tom Pohlad recognizes that they can’t give up on this season without losing another sea of fans but at the end of the day if they’re not going to even consider resigning Joe, doesn’t it make the most sense to trade him now, before an almost guaranteed lockout?

IDK, it sucks regardless 

[DJL44]

Even if the Twins are in the playoff hunt, they should consider trading Larnach. They need pitching a lot more than they need a left handed hitting outfielder. There are options to replace Larnach from within but nothing in the minors for pitching.

[thelanges5]

I agree with the opinions here. He’s a league average hitter that’s set to make $6-8m in arbitration this offseason. I don’t think he’s part of the Twins future. His little hot streak at the plate and improved defense may appeal to someone. 

[TheLeviathan]

[Brandon]

I think the Twins need a good return as long as they are in the playoffs hunt.  No reason to trade just to trade.  Normally with a below 500 record, I am in the sell and get prospects group.  But the league as a whole is bad and we are competitive.  We need to make sure the prospects are ready to step in to replace him.... I think we are a few good relievers from being an actual serious contender.  At the top of the league in runs scored. Just behind Yankees.  Improved pitching solves the equation and gets us in the playoffs.  With the position the Pohlads are in, we need to be buyers at the deadline.  I would support a trade with Boston or three team deal where Twiins trade Larnarch and a prospect for Chapman, another reliever and a few million to help offset salary.  

[Brandon]

33 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Even if the Twins are in the playoff hunt, they should consider trading Larnach. They need pitching a lot more than they need a left handed hitting outfielder. There are options to replace Larnach from within but nothing in the minors for pitching.

I think CJ Culpepper is next on the list to bring up. It gets murky after him though.

[karcherd]

52 minutes ago, MMBoys93 said:

This allows them to bring up guys like Roden, Wallner, Sabato, Mendez, Arcia. These moves also clear up room for Royce and Keaschall to continue to play every day and gives the twins flexibility to figure out a position for them. 

Why do you add Arcia to the 40 man roster and call him up, what value does he have.  He just went unclaimed by every other team in the league who could have had for free but yet we would want him on our roster.  I thought Falvey was gone.

[LA Vikes Fan]

You all make valid points, but I think you’re missing an important part of the analysis – what do we get in return and how does this go down in the clubhouse. We have a number of players that we hope will want to stay with the Twins long-term. We can’t make trades that show we are giving up on the season again and expect these guys to want to stick around when they get the chance to leave. We cannot trade Larnach for prospects or frankly anybody that doesn’t immediately join the major league roster and make a contribution. If we do, the clubhouse is going to see it as a vote of no confidence and it’s likely we will collapse again. Nobody wants to be on that team long-term.

So while I get the arguments for trading Larnach and think they have some validity, I only do it if we can get quality major league help back. The perfect trade, of course, would be Larnach for a quality relief pitcher with closing experience, even if we have to throw in a mid-level prospect to make that happen. Bottom line, unless we’re getting a guy who is immediately on the 26 man roster and either playing regularly or making a real contribution in the bullpen, I say you wait till the off-season to trade him.

[karcherd]

Until there is someone ready to replace him, why do you trade Larnach other than for the sake of trading him.  And what will you get for him a player from A ball.   What value does he really have.  Same with Clemens and Bell, they have no value around the league.  Yes they have had hot streaks but have also had really cold streaks, you don't think the rest of the league sees this.  There was only one Falvey who would get fooled by a hot streak and he isn't in the league as a decision maker currently.

[Dman]

Some team is going to get a good deal when they trade for Larnach.  I don't know that he can stay at an .800 OPS but right now if he qualified he would be around top 50 in OPS in all of MLB.,  If he stays at that level that's an incredibly valuable bat. He's pretty much always done well against righties and likely needs protection from lefties, but it's still a potent bat.  He's not a great defender but serviceable which gives him some flexibility.  If the Twins are trading him and I needed\wanted a good lefty bat he'd be on my list.

I think this is pretty much who he is at this point.  He has a good approach and hits the ball hard.  He's on a hot streak right now and likely to come down some, but I think his bat lands in the .760 to .810 OPS area if protected from lefties. 

I am a bit torn and with the 2027 strike seeming likely and the outfield getting really full it sure seems like a good time to trade him.  I agree that at 29 the odds of him helping this team as currently constructed seems minimal so maybe getting a piece of the future for him makes too much sense.  We'll see where he sits as far as OPS around the deadline.  If his OPS drops considerably so does his value and teams don't tend to trade for many position players at the deadline as they do for arms.  Have to wait and see how this looks at the end of July.

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

So while I get the arguments for trading Larnach and think they have some validity, I only do it if we can get quality major league help back. The perfect trade, of course, would be Larnach for a quality relief pitcher with closing experience, even if we have to throw in a mid-level prospect to make that happen. Bottom line, unless we’re getting a guy who is immediately on the 26 man roster and either playing regularly or making a real contribution in the bullpen, I say you wait till the off-season to trade him.

Larnach has zero trade value this offseason. He is a borderline non-tender.

[DJL44]

The Padres are looking for a LH OF bat. Bradgley Rodriguez would help the Twins bullpen. That’s the kind of trade they need to make.

[Maybe Next Year]

Rebuild? You can't be serious! The Twins got almost NOTHING in their fire sale of top relief pitchers last year. What makes anybody think trading their best players this year will be any different. In order to rebuild you need a foundation. You don't trade two or three of your best players. You build around them. Especially when you don't have a clue how to make a decent trade. 

[mickster]

1 hour ago, MMBoys93 said:

Agreed here. Larnach has always been a streaky guy and he’s going through one of the best of his career.

I think you look to trade the below. 

One catcher- 3 MLB catchers on the roster. They’re not resigning Jeffers and that’s why they brought in Caratini in the first place. It’s the likely route.

Bell- it’s time to see what they have in former first pick Sabato. 
Clemens- value is extremely high right now. Kreidler can take his super utility position down the road.

This allows them to bring up guys like Roden, Wallner, Sabato, Mendez, Arcia. These moves also clear up room for Royce and Keaschall to continue to play every day and gives the twins flexibility to figure out a position for them. 
 

Larnach and Clemens values are up, and it’s the perfect time to trade them. I know how people feel about Wallner and I’m not far off. I’ve been high on the guy but getting sent down to AAA every year for struggles just seems to be the Twins way. There’s no point in trading him when his value is the worst it’s ever been. Give him the rest of the season and then make a decision, same with Royce. 
 

I’d love to see them keep Ryan and add 3 guys to the pen. They’d still come out ahead on boosting the farm after the position player trades I suggested and give us a little bit to actually cheer for. They’d be a better team.
 

Tom Pohlad recognizes that they can’t give up on this season without losing another sea of fans but at the end of the day if they’re not going to even consider resigning Joe, doesn’t it make the most sense to trade him now, before an almost guaranteed lockout?

IDK, it sucks regardless 

Trading Bell while still in the hunt doesn't make sense as no one is giving us much for him.  I would rather keep Larnach and Clemens and trade ERod instead.  We don't need to see Arcia over Clemens as he clearly isn't valued as he passed through waivers.I would like to see Roden, but he can take the place of Fedko any day.  Sabato and Mendez look like Sept call ups in my mind

[LA Vikes Fan]

If we could trade Larnach for Bradley Rodriguez, I would do it in a heartbeat. I'd even throw in a 20 to 30 prospect to get it done, especially if they add an A Ball lottery ticket. Rodriguez has a 2.10 ERA , a 1.19 WHIP, a 2.67 FIP, and a 3.60 SIERRA. He's 22 years old in his second year in the Bigs. Something like Larnach and Amick. Ross, or Rosario for Rodriguez and an A ball guy with upside would be fine by me. That's exactly the kind of deal where it makes sense to trade Larnach. 

[mickster]

9 minutes ago, Maybe Next Year said:

Rebuild? You can't be serious! The Twins got almost NOTHING in their fire sale of top relief pitchers last year. What makes anybody think trading their best players this year will be any different. In order to rebuild you need a foundation. You don't trade two or three of your best players. You build around them. Especially when you don't have a clue how to make a decent trade. 

What would this team look like now had the Varland trade not happened, or they kept Doran?  Abel produced earlier in the year - but with either or both of them in the bullpen this year you are looking at the Central Division leaders.

[MMBoys93]

42 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Why do you add Arcia to the 40 man roster and call him up, what value does he have.  He just went unclaimed by every other team in the league who could have had for free but yet we would want him on our roster.  I thought Falvey was gone.

Because you get trade value for Clemens at the deadline. With Culpepper on the IL he’s not coming up anytime soon. They’ll need someone to replace Clemens who can play the infield with Kreidler starting every day. It’s not cause I want Arcia, but in the infield there’s no other option. They need a backup who can play SS, Gray is obviously not that and the ship has sailed on Lee getting any time there 

[Patzky]

7 minutes ago, mickster said:

What would this team look like now had the Varland trade not happened, or they kept Doran?  Abel produced earlier in the year - but with either or both of them in the bullpen this year you are looking at the Central Division leaders.

Without the firesale you'd be looking at a SP rotation of.. Joe, Prielipp, Paredes, Zebby, maybe Rojas at this point. Not sure about your assessment.

[MMBoys93]

12 minutes ago, mickster said:

Trading Bell while still in the hunt doesn't make sense as no one is giving us much for him.  I would rather keep Larnach and Clemens and trade ERod instead.  We don't need to see Arcia over Clemens as he clearly isn't valued as he passed through waivers.I would like to see Roden, but he can take the place of Fedko any day.  Sabato and Mendez look like Sept call ups in my mind

They’re in the hunt because the AL is truly awful. Being in the hunt for a wild card spot and being a contender are two massively different things. Sabato is 27 now and they spent a first round pick on him. Isn’t it time to see if there’s anything there?

Bell is a streaky hitter and likely to go on a cold streak at any time. He’s been incredible this month but was the opposite before that. If a team sees him as a bat to boost their lineup it’s absolutely worth seeing what they can get for him. 

[karcherd]

1 minute ago, MMBoys93 said:

Because you get trade value for Clemens at the deadline. With Culpepper on the IL he’s not coming up anytime soon. They’ll need someone to replace Clemens who can play the infield with Kreidler starting every day. It’s not cause I want Arcia, but in the infield there’s no other option. They need a backup who can play SS, Gray is obviously not that and the ship has sailed on Lee getting any time there 

Clemens has no value at the deadline.  His hot streak is over and he reverting to what he is, a good role player. The rest of the league knows what he is.  There is no reason Lee can't fill at SS.  If you are adding an infielder to the 40, give Ross a shot.  

[karcherd]

5 minutes ago, MMBoys93 said:

They’re in the hunt because the AL is truly awful. Being in the hunt for a wild card spot and being a contender are two massively different things. Sabato is 27 now and they spent a first round pick on him. Isn’t it time to see if there’s anything there?

Bell is a streaky hitter and likely to go on a cold streak at any time. He’s been incredible this month but was the opposite before that. If a team sees him as a bat to boost their lineup it’s absolutely worth seeing what they can get for him. 

Washington had no takers at the deadline last year for Bell, what has changed.  The only one willing to give him any kind of dollars in the off-season was Falvey.  The only way to get rid of Bell is to DFA him.

[Possumlad]

31 minutes ago, Maybe Next Year said:

Rebuild? You can't be serious! The Twins got almost NOTHING in their fire sale of top relief pitchers last year. What makes anybody think trading their best players this year will be any different. In order to rebuild you need a foundation. You don't trade two or three of your best players. You build around them. Especially when you don't have a clue how to make a decent trade. 

Saying "we don't know yet" is ok. The Twins traded present for future production at last year's deadline.  We don't know nearly enough yet to know whether the future production will pan out - that's the nature of trading current starters for prospects. 

Of the deals they made, I'd make every one of them again outside of Varland (although even there we don't have enough info).

The Correa move was a pure salary dump. 

Duran for Tait & Abel I'd do again in a heartbeat.

Jax for Bradley, yes please. (Bradley's already been far more valuable than Jax this year - 1.6 WAR vs. 0.2)

Varland & France for Rojas & Roden - probably not, but Rojas & Roden both still time to make this a big win. 

Brock Stewart, Castro, and Bader weren't in the intermediate-term plans either way, so if any of those prospects pan out it's a small victory.

[mickster]

24 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Without the firesale you'd be looking at a SP rotation of.. Joe, Prielipp, Paredes, Zebby, maybe Rojas at this point. Not sure about your assessment.

Joe, Taj, Ober (Parades), Zebby, Prielipp.       

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, mickster said:

Joe, Taj, Ober (Parades), Zebby, Prielipp.       

Taj?

Yes, trade Larnach. It's 100 percent what Milwaukee and Tampa would do. 

[Road trip]

43 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Padres are looking for a LH OF bat. Bradgley Rodriguez would help the Twins bullpen. That’s the kind of trade they need to make.

The Padres do desperately need more outfield (and DH) production, so they are a likely match, be it Larnach or one of our other outfielder/DH types.  They need to make moves, their best hitter so far this year is (*gulp*) Ty France.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

19 minutes ago, Possumlad said:

Saying "we don't know yet" is ok. The Twins traded present for future production at last year's deadline.  We don't know nearly enough yet to know whether the future production will pan out - that's the nature of trading current starters for prospects. 

Of the deals they made, I'd make every one of them again outside of Varland (although even there we don't have enough info).

The Correa move was a pure salary dump. 

Duran for Tait & Abel I'd do again in a heartbeat.

Jax for Bradley, yes please. (Bradley's already been far more valuable than Jax this year - 1.6 WAR vs. 0.2)

Varland & France for Rojas & Roden - probably not, but Rojas & Roden both still time to make this a big win. 

Brock Stewart, Castro, and Bader weren't in the intermediate-term plans either way, so if any of those prospects pan out it's a small victory.

Agreed and I would add that Bader for Hendry Mendez looks like it might be a big win for the Twins. 

[MMBoys93]

4 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Agreed and I would add that Bader for Hendry Mendez looks like it might be a big win for the Twins. 

Bradley also has team control that Jax does not

And Castro brought back 2 SP prospects. Both have had a tough year but they were regarded ok.
 

Clemens, Bell, Larnach could  bring back similar level returns to Castro and Bader with Clemens potential bringing more back because of his control.

[MMBoys93]

30 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Washington had no takers at the deadline last year for Bell, what has changed.  The only one willing to give him any kind of dollars in the off-season was Falvey.  The only way to get rid of Bell is to DFA him.

What’s potentially changed is that Bell is on an absolute tear right now and if that continues then there’s absolutely value there. I can’t predict the future though, but if he continues hitting well, a switch hitting guy with an .800 OPS is absolutely valuable.

He’s not gonna bring back much but allowing Sabato to take some of his innings is valuable to me.