Brewers 2, Twins 1: No Strike Back, Only Strike Outs for Twins

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, Nshore said:

Bottom half of the order: Clemens, Lewis, Gray, Outman - and they don't win???  My world doesn't make sense anymore!

It's amazing there were that many fans at the game.  Hope is eternal!

 

 

Wisconsin isn’t that far away, regarding the size of crowd.

Typically, I would list the same names you did but honestly, I have to defend Clemens because he no longer deserves to be lumped in with these others.

BELL, batting 4th (or at all), is as big if a problem the Team has over the last month.

[Coach Wheels]

10 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Feel bad for Shelty but he knew what he was getting himself into. Same core lineup and the same results for the past three season. Zoll has some tough decisions to make. 

Does he? I don't see Zoll having the green light to make any decisions besides scanning the DFA market and finding 39 year old pitchers that no one else wants. 

[JD-TWINS]

50 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Outman, should have sat on 3B until the ball was either caught or dropped in.  By taking a few steps off he had no chance to tag and could have easily scored if the ball dropped in front of the fielder.

Right now Lewis is the favorite whipping boy, but there are bad AB's being taken throughout the lineup on a daily basis.  He is hard to defend but he is not the only problem.  And Arcia or Kreidler are not the answer, if you make a change call up Culpepper.  We are not a true wild card team with this roster, they are fooling themselves if they think are.  Lewis was not a pull hitter when he first came up, this organization tried to change everyone into a let it rip and pull the ball type of hitter.  Martin and Lee went back to who they are, hopefully Lewis figures it out too, but I am starting to think it will be with another team if it happens.

This organization needs a review from the top down and Zoll needs to go to let a fresh perspective give this insight into what is working and what isn't in the organization.  And at this point I wouldn't wait for the end of the season.  What they are doing isn't working.

They certainly have thrown away 3 games to date just with giving up unearned runs……. actually, Friday night and both of Prielipp’s last 2 starts unearned runs have killed them (3 of last 7) They have at least 3-4 other games (minimum) with excellent pitching and no run production. Both of these things happen in baseball with all of the Clubs…..I understand.

If the TWINS had engineered 3 more wins over their first 46 games, they would be at .500 and most here would be pretty satisfied.

The doom & gloom isn’t the only reality going forward:

They may need to DFA Bell or figure out a way to get him on the IL for a month…….

Lewis needs to follow Wallner to St. Paul ……

Gotta figure out who could come up and not have a similar performance to Lewis …. it may be Arcia for a few weeks? Really think Culpepper needs a bit more time.

Need a LH hitting OF to replace Outman unless he keeps playing reasonably over next couple weeks……..

PEN is spotty at best but they aren’t blowing lead after lead ……… they do not score enough runs!!!

11-13-8 in 3 games & 2-2-2-3-1-3-1 isn’t a winning formula relative to Run Production! Offense has been the problem since August of ‘24.

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Find me one quote where anyone said RBI are meaningless. 

From AI:

 

"The phrase "RBI are meaningless" is a popular yet highly debated idiom in baseball analytics."

 

You can't seriously be claiming this isn't standard stathead orthodoxy, can you? 

[David Maro]

Plain and simple get the ball in play!! With ducks on the pond and no outs you can't strike out 3 times. How about Gray or Outman laying down a bunt instead of swinging away. The game is called baseball and sometimes small ball wins.

[Over The Hill Again]

8 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

From AI:

 

"The phrase "RBI are meaningless" is a popular yet highly debated idiom in baseball analytics."

 

You can't seriously be claiming this isn't standard stathead orthodoxy, can you? 

Call me old (because I am) but as a fan, actually watching the game, I do not want to have to be studying obscure metrics to feel like I need them to appreciate or be entertained by what I’m seeing. RBI is (yes a flawed) measure of a player doing the basic thing needed for a team to score runs. I derive pleasure and entertainment from a baseball team executing basics to accumulate runs to hopefully win a game. With my eyes, over the course of many, many seasons, I watched players that can consistently get it done, and others who can’t. So, yeah, RBI matters a lot to me. YMMV 

[hitterscount]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Clemens has a wRC+ of 116.  He should not be lumped in with the other three.

Clemens  has been alright, he has some value at the plate while playing decent defense.

Players killi this team as of now: WRC

Lewis 60

Outman 38

Carantini 52

Bell 67

Keaschall 71

Gray 86

That's 6 guys that are far below average at the plate, not a little.... they basically are bringing nothing to the team. Buxton has major value, but as the norm for him he's injured again magnifying the offensive woes. I 'mnot a total stat guy, however the eye test says Lewis, Outman, Bell, Caratini are bad.... really bad.

At some point this is going to implode. How long can the pitching keep gi ty team quality starts, games they should be winning only to watch this inept offense grab another loss after loss in games they should be winning, the last two should of been W's. At some point the staff will have a stretch of bad starts..... no way that the positional players pick the team up. 

 

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

Clemens  has been alright, he has some value at the plate while playing decent defense.

Players killi this team as of now: WRC

Lewis 60

Outman 38

Carantini 52

Bell 67

Keaschall 71

Gray 86

That's 6 guys that are far below average at the plate, not a little.... they basically are bringing nothing to the team. Buxton has major value, but as the norm for him he's injured again magnifying the offensive woes. I 'mnot a total stat guy, however the eye test says Lewis, Outman, Bell, Caratini are bad.... really bad.

At some point this is going to implode. How long can the pitching keep gi ty team quality starts, games they should be winning only to watch this inept offense grab another loss after loss in games they should be winning, the last two should of been W's. At some point the staff will have a stretch of bad starts..... no way that the positional players pick the team up. 

 

Every team has players who are below average hitters.

[karcherd]

37 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

They certainly have thrown away 3 games to date just with giving up unearned runs……. actually, Friday night and both of Prielipp’s last 2 starts unearned runs have killed them (3 of last 7) They have at least 3-4 other games (minimum) with excellent pitching and no run production. Both of these things happen in baseball with all of the Clubs…..I understand.

If the TWINS had engineered 3 more wins over their first 46 games, they would be at .500 and most here would be pretty satisfied.

The doom & gloom isn’t the only reality going forward:

They may need to DFA Bell or figure out a way to get him on the IL for a month…….

Lewis needs to follow Wallner to St. Paul ……

Gotta figure out who could come up and not have a similar performance to Lewis …. it may be Arcia for a few weeks? Really think Culpepper needs a bit more time.

Need a LH hitting OF to replace Outman unless he keeps playing reasonably over next couple weeks……..

PEN is spotty at best but they aren’t blowing lead after lead ……… they do not score enough runs!!!

11-13-8 in 3 games & 2-2-2-3-1-3-1 isn’t a winning formula relative to Run Production! Offense has been the problem since August of ‘24.

The concern is if they put in Arcia, he will be in there for more than a few weeks regardless of production.  Zoll seems to be like Falvey in that they won't move on from under performing vets.  Outman did not earn a spot on the roster coming out of spring training it was only because he was out of options that he made the team and I believe he had been traded for.  

The bullpen is not consistently get the job done regardless, they need at least two or three guys they can count on the majority of the time and they have none currently.

Even if they can somehow make the playoffs as a wild card, they will be overmatched against any team they face.  This team is not in a spot to have a sustainable run of success, the only area that looks promising is starting pitching.  Start now trying to figure out the other pieces needed to move this organization forward.  And the AAAA types and underwhelming aging vets are not going to part any success moving forward, stop giving them AB's and innings pitched.  If I am going to see failure, I would rather see it from Sabato then Bell for example.  At least you know what you have going forward and can make the appropriate decisions for next season.  Right now, they will be dumpster diving again because they won't trust the players they have developed.  

[jmlease1]

39 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

From AI:

 

"The phrase "RBI are meaningless" is a popular yet highly debated idiom in baseball analytics."

 

You can't seriously be claiming this isn't standard stathead orthodoxy, can you? 

well, you're quoting AI...

Good luck finding nuance or accuracy there. I'm not going to say RBIs themselves are useless or meaningless, but as a statistic, it's not especially useful or descriptive in informing someone about how good a hitter a particular player is.

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, hitterscount said:

Clemens  has been alright, he has some value at the plate while playing decent defense.

Players killi this team as of now: WRC

Lewis 60

Outman 38

Carantini 52

Bell 67

Keaschall 71

Gray 86

That's 6 guys that are far below average at the plate, not a little.... they basically are bringing nothing to the team. Buxton has major value, but as the norm for him he's injured again magnifying the offensive woes. I 'mnot a total stat guy, however the eye test says Lewis, Outman, Bell, Caratini are bad.... really bad.

At some point this is going to implode. How long can the pitching keep gi ty team quality starts, games they should be winning only to watch this inept offense grab another loss after loss in games they should be winning, the last two should of been W's. At some point the staff will have a stretch of bad starts..... no way that the positional players pick the team up. 

 

Give Lewis another couple weeks.   If he does not get going, send him down and bring up Arcia to play everyday between SS, 3B, and 2B.   He probably gets traded at the deadline if he hits reasonably well and Culpepper gets another couple months to get ready. 

Same with Bell.  Dump him, eat the salary.  Make the team better short-term while auditioning players that can be part of the future.  We could even move Keaschall to 1B in platoon with Clemmons.  Maybe give Mendez a shot.  Gonzalez is showing signs of getting going.  Perhaps he could step up in a month or two.  Right now it's a wasted roster spot.

Outman is only a problem if one of Buxton, Martin or Larnach is out for an extended period.  If that happens, they can bring up Roden when he is ready or give whichever AAA guy has it going the best. 

[TJSweens]

10 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Fun little stat - Prielipp is the first starter in Twins history to give up 2 or fewer earned runs in each of his first 5 career outings. 

They should move him to the bullpen. 😁

[TJSweens]

16 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

well, you're quoting AI...

Good luck finding nuance or accuracy there. I'm not going to say RBIs themselves are useless or meaningless, but as a statistic, it's not especially useful or descriptive in informing someone about how good a hitter a particular player is.

It says that when some players swing the bat, runs cross the plate. Other players, not so much. 

[rdehring]

1 hour ago, karcherd said:

The concern is if they put in Arcia, he will be in there for more than a few weeks regardless of production.  Zoll seems to be like Falvey in that they won't move on from under performing vets.  Outman did not earn a spot on the roster coming out of spring training it was only because he was out of options that he made the team and I believe he had been traded for.  

The bullpen is not consistently get the job done regardless, they need at least two or three guys they can count on the majority of the time and they have none currently.

Even if they can somehow make the playoffs as a wild card, they will be overmatched against any team they face.  This team is not in a spot to have a sustainable run of success, the only area that looks promising is starting pitching.  Start now trying to figure out the other pieces needed to move this organization forward.  And the AAAA types and underwhelming aging vets are not going to part any success moving forward, stop giving them AB's and innings pitched.  If I am going to see failure, I would rather see it from Sabato then Bell for example.  At least you know what you have going forward and can make the appropriate decisions for next season.  Right now, they will be dumpster diving again because they won't trust the players they have developed.  

Have been wondering the past few days if Sabato would be a good replacement for Bell?  After several disappointing seasons, he is having some success.  Don't have a clue if he will have any success with the Twins.  But we know Bell is a hole in their lineup.

2026 isn't going to be a competitive season for the Twins.  Use it towards making the team competitive in 2027 or 2028.  Wallner was a first step.  They didn't bring up any of the good prospects, however, that won't happen until several get healthy.  

[hitterscount]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Every team has players who are below average hitters.

We are not talking below average, it's beyond below average. 100 is average, you can live with WRC's in the 80 & 90's if you're getting A type defense in return.... this isn't happening. Lewis, Bell, Keaschall, Outman are all negative defensive players. Martin, Lee, and Clemens also grade out as below average defenders but their hitting is average to slightly above average.... those three you can live with. 

[Linus]

Preilipp certainly has some upside. He’s making good hitters make some pretty bad swings. He does need to improve his command. Without better command he is going to have games where he gets blown up and he will rarely pitch deep into games. But for his first stint in the bigs he is a bright spot. 

[jorgenswest]

13 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Nerds: "strikeouts are just like any other out."

USAFChief: "false."

Nerds: "RBI are meaningless."

USAFChief: "false."

This nerd concurs

In 2018 players were asked about the stats they valued the most.

RBIs were third behind OPS and OBP among the 35 position players asked.

 

[Linus]

3 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

This nerd concurs

In 2018 players were asked about the stats they valued the most.

RBIs were third behind OPS and OBP among the 35 position players asked.

 

I certainly wish our current club was more worried about RBIs 😀

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

From AI:

 

"The phrase "RBI are meaningless" is a popular yet highly debated idiom in baseball analytics."

 

You can't seriously be claiming this isn't standard stathead orthodoxy, can you? 

A productive hitter that has rbi's is most likely to get a good salary like a homerun player does  , a good productive hitter gets the rbi's in the clutch  , some people think that rbi's spread out between the team is a good thing , id rather have a player have over 100 rbis , than I would say that hitter is a productive player to the team  ...

We haven't had a 100 rbi or 100 runs scored by a player for quite sometime  , was 2019 the last year ???

Those stats matter to me as much as OBP and OPS  , we can't keep having a bulk of the players strikeout more than a 100 times a year  , that is just not productive especially 3 in arow with runners in scoring position ......

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, karcherd said:

The concern is if they put in Arcia, he will be in there for more than a few weeks regardless of production.  Zoll seems to be like Falvey in that they won't move on from under performing vets.  Outman did not earn a spot on the roster coming out of spring training it was only because he was out of options that he made the team and I believe he had been traded for.  

The bullpen is not consistently get the job done regardless, they need at least two or three guys they can count on the majority of the time and they have none currently.

Even if they can somehow make the playoffs as a wild card, they will be overmatched against any team they face.  This team is not in a spot to have a sustainable run of success, the only area that looks promising is starting pitching.  Start now trying to figure out the other pieces needed to move this organization forward.  And the AAAA types and underwhelming aging vets are not going to part any success moving forward, stop giving them AB's and innings pitched.  If I am going to see failure, I would rather see it from Sabato then Bell for example.  At least you know what you have going forward and can make the appropriate decisions for next season.  Right now, they will be dumpster diving again because they won't trust the players they have developed.  

They’ve known for at least 3 years that they have no good options in the organization at 1B. Bell was assumed to play a bunch more at 1B with Larnach at DH but Bell is brutal on both sides of the ball. ……… Sabato hasn’t grabbed anybody’s eye and he’s right in front of them playing 6 days/week…… not the answer in baseball people’s eyes. I have no issue with a DFA for Bell if he’s still in this spiral 3 weeks from now……….Gotta say, much to my surprise, Clemens is becoming an “OK” option v. RH pitching.

I get your frustration with Outman! However, Rodriguez has been hurt big chunks of EVERY season with every injury imaginable. Roden has been hurt the vast majority of games he’s been with the organization. Jenkins got hurt again. Those 3 were the options to replace Outman with ………… gotta be available.

Criticizing Zoll for his “tendencies”, or his approach, seems a bit over the top emotion to me - he’s been in charge for 5 months and he’s 7-8 weeks into his first season. With ZERO ability to spend, btw.

Everyone knew the PEN was going to have spotty success back in March.

Over 7 of last 8 games, (since Cleveland series started) EXCLUDING the one game SWR started in that string of games, the STAFF (not starters) has given up 11 earned runs over 63 innings. That’s a 1.57 ERA (that includes a 9 inning Bullpen game).

The offense sucks, as it has since August of ‘24………scoring and HR’s are respectable for sure but the runs are often bunched into one game, while hardly scoring for 3 other games.

Bell hits 4th - Keaschall plays nearly every inning and his bat is weak - Caratini is mirroring Vazquez production - Wallner has been sent down - Lewis should be sent down - Outman is playing. SIX BIG HOLES in a 13 man roster……….Obviously, I can live with sticking with Keaschall but he’s truthfully not contributing much!

Kreidler was characterized as being “the worst hitter in the majors” during spring training and he’s provided a lift to the line-up.

With Lopez - Abel - Bradley all being hurt prior to May 10…………rotation pieces have really been a strength …….. SWR to PEN in next 10 days when Bradley returns.

[karcherd]

30 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Kreidler was characterized as being “the worst hitter in the majors” during spring training and he’s provided a lift to the line-up.

He has played in two games since being recalled, one we scored 2 runs, the other 9 runs.  It is a bit of an overstatement to say he has provided a lift to the lineup. He has a .159 career batting average and is 28 years old.  To expect him to be an addition to the offense at this point in his career is not an unfair criticism.

 

32 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Criticizing Zoll for his “tendencies”, or his approach, seems a bit over the top emotion to me - he’s been in charge for 5 months and he’s 7-8 weeks into his first season. With ZERO ability to spend, btw.

It may be somewhat emotional but I do not believe he is the answer to help lead this team.  And we have no idea what he has to spend.

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, hitterscount said:

We are not talking below average, it's beyond below average. 100 is average, you can live with WRC's in the 80 & 90's if you're getting A type defense in return.... this isn't happening. Lewis, Bell, Keaschall, Outman are all negative defensive players. Martin, Lee, and Clemens also grade out as below average defenders but their hitting is average to slightly above average.... those three you can live with. 

80 is as far below average as 120 is above average.

Caratini is a catcher, those guys are typically below average.

If Outman is a below average defender then I have no idea why he is on the team. His role is defensive replacement and pinch runner.

[Mike Sixel]

6 hours ago, USAFChief said:

From AI:

 

"The phrase "RBI are meaningless" is a popular yet highly debated idiom in baseball analytics."

 

You can't seriously be claiming this isn't standard stathead orthodoxy, can you? 

AI? That's your source? 

I'm 190 percent claiming no one has ever said that, yes. Give me a real source. 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

AI? That's your source? 

I'm 190 percent claiming no one has ever said that, yes. Give me a real source. 

https://library.fangraphs.com/stats-to-avoid-runs-batted-in-rbi/

[Eris]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

https://library.fangraphs.com/stats-to-avoid-runs-batted-in-rbi/

I have always struggled with this aspect of sabermetrics. As for fWAR and bWAR calculations a HR with the bases empty is the same fWAR or bWAR contribution as a player hitting a 3 run HR. 

[USAFChief]

41 minutes ago, Eris said:

I have always struggled with this aspect of sabermetrics. As for fWAR and bWAR calculations a HR with the bases empty is the same fWAR or bWAR contribution as a player hitting a 3 run HR. 

In addition to other obvious weaknesses with both WARs, the formula ignores context for all events, not just HRs.

 

[Mike Sixel]

7 hours ago, USAFChief said:

https://library.fangraphs.com/stats-to-avoid-runs-batted-in-rbi/

That doesn't say RBI are meaningless. It says they aren't predictable and are contextual. Where does it say they don't matter to winning or losing?

[Woof Bronzer]

14 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

That doesn't say RBI are meaningless. It says they aren't predictable and are contextual. Where does it say they don't matter to winning or losing?

The article literally says "Generally speaking, RBI is not a useful measure of offensive performance".  Come on, man.