As Twins Bullpen Struggles, Louis Varland Is Unlocking Another Level in Toronto

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of William Liang-Imagn Images

On Tuesday night against the Mariners, Joe Ryan threw six innings of one-run ball before surrendering a leadoff double in the top of the seventh. He exited in a very winnable 1-1 tie game. Before long, the score was 7-1 and the Twins were lopsided losers.

Kody Funderburk quickly allowed the inherited runner to score. In the eighth, Cole Sands gave up a three-run homer to Josh Naylor. (Who pimped the living hell out of it.) In the ninth, newly acquired veteran Luis García — recently waived by the Mets after posting a 7.11 ERA through six appearances — allowed two more runs to cap off a bullpen meltdown that torpedoed Minnesota's chances of locking up a series win. On Wednesday, Eric Orze entered in the ninth to protect a one-run lead and gave up three earned runs while recording one out, sealing another series loss. 

These were the the 10th and 11th losses in 13 games for the Twins, dropping them five games below .500. For the season, their relievers rank 25th in baseball with a 5.31 ERA and 27th in Win Probability Added at -1.58. It hasn't quite been the worst relief corps in the league, but it's been close, and costly. As expected.

Making matters worse: Louis Varland is reaching new levels of dominance in Toronto. After setting a record for reliever usage in the playoffs last year, and prompting Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman to call his deadline acquisition "one of the greatest trades we've ever made," Varland is further elevating his game here in 2026. Through 16 innings, he has a 0.56 ERA and 26-to-4 K/BB ratio with zero home runs allowed. 

His fastball is averaging 98 MPH. His strikeout rate (43%), FIP (0.63) and fWAR (1.0) all lead the American League. In fact, Varland's WAR is more than double that of the entire Twins bullpen (0.4). It's hard to overstate what a difference he could be making as leader of this reconfigured unit.

Alas, Varland is now a Blue Jay, due to the controversial decision to ship out the breakout reliever and his five remaining years of control as part of last year's deadline teardown. Whereas the Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran trades were fairly conventional rebuild moves, the Varland trade was much more of a head-scratcher. Up until he was dealt just minutes before the deadline, he seemed likely to stick around as the long-term leader of a rebuilding relief corps. We're seeing now why that may have been a good idea.

 

Instead, we're seeing the downside of an audacious, risk-laden decision. Varland is starring in the Blue Jays bullpen while the Twins flounder in part because of their complete lack of late-inning weapons. Alan Roden seemed like an odd fit when Minnesota's front office targeted him and only looks more so now — he was buried in the minors on the LH-hitting OF depth chart before suffering another significant injury last week. Roden is out for the next month at least and possibly much longer. Ouch.

Which brings us to Kendry Rojas, the other half of the Varland return. He was always the centerpiece of the deal from the Twins' view, and we're seeing why this year. Rojas looked great in camp and has been stellar in his handful of appearances for the Saints. He's already debuted for the Twins, tossing two scoreless innings of relief while filling in for Funderburk last week, and as long he stays healthy it won't be long before he's back.

With his upper-90s heat and whiff-centric stuff from the left side, Rojas is a high-caliber arm with the realistic potential to flip the narrative (at least somewhat) on the Varland trade. Fair or not, there's going to be a lot of pressure on him to do so. 

Right now, the contrast is impossible to ignore. Varland is becoming exactly the kind of late-inning force the Twins desperately lack — dominant, reliable, game-altering — just in someone else’s bullpen. Minnesota is left searching for answers in the innings that matter most, hoping Rojas can eventually help bridge that gap.

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[Bangkok Twins Fan]

Yeah, Varland is looking lights out in Toronto thus far this season. Sigh. I didn't like that trade at that time (most of those trades the Twins made last year I was fine with, but I hated the Varland trade) and now I like it less, obviously. Sure, Rojas may  turn into a very good MLB pitcher, and perhaps Roden can stay healthy and become productive too, but man, I sure wish we had held onto Varland. 

[Jeff K]

This was the trade that sent me over the edge.  The others were pretty good and the Bradley for Jax trade was/is great.  

[Whitey333]

It may go down as one of the worst trades Twins have ever made.  

[D.C Twins]

Hello wound.... I'm salt! 

[Old Twins Hat]

In theory, bullpens are the easiest/least expensive part of MLB to rebuild, and yet, oddly,  the most difficult to maintain year-to-year as pitchers move in and out of having good seasons, workable contracts, injuries, etc.  That means a high quality, low cost, injury-free, controllable reliever is the gold standard.

But, as the Twins 2026 shows us, the hard part of putting a bullpen together is showing up with high quality relievers -- pitchers who can miss bats and shut-down potent offenses.  In other words, a bullpen that is as elite and a good team's offense.  Even a weak dribbler of a hit in the 9th inning can be a team's undoing, as the Twins figured out yesterday.

Twins will probably do okay against average teams in terms of relief pitching, but average teams don't win divisions, don't make the playoffs and certainly do not make playoff runs.

Varland is the type of arm that can be a solid part of a very good baseball team that can beat other good teams.  Twins do not have that kind of arm right now and, in fact, have the fewest bullpen K's of any team in the league.

They gave up what they most need  for a couple of solid prospects.  Hope it works out but whatever Falvey was drinking that day, it must have been strong stuff when you figure in Varland's hometown status and years of control.

 

[Linus]

I’m happy for Varland. The Twins bullpen needs a lot more than Varland to be good. 

[JD-TWINS]

10 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

It may go down as one of the worst trades Twins have ever made.  

A lot of stuff “may happen”. Louie was washed as a potential starter in MN. Numerous opportunities, wasn’t happening. Rojas was not acquired to be a one inning a game guy for 68 innings per year. ……. by end of ‘28 it may be one of the best trades the Twins have ever made.

Louie is local - likable energy - having success over last 12 months…….I get it…….his trade, on April 30th of year one doesn’t define the success of the move.

Abel has definite upside over Duran over a period of years ……… same with Bradley v. Jax. Those two guys were coveted more than Louie at the deadline last year if you were a Twins fan or a Team making a trade with Twins. Gotta let things play out.

[HrbieFan]

49 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

This was the trade that sent me over the edge.  The others were pretty good and the Bradley for Jax trade was/is great.  

100% He was our next closer and homegrown on top of it! As of now, we don't even have a plan going forward. 

[rdehring]

Will agree the deal didn't make a ton of sense.  Mostly because Varland was a local kid who was doing great and would continue being cheap for several years.  So why did they do it?  I have to believe they were blown away by the return.  Or at least they thought so. 

Looking at his results in the upper levels of MiLB, Roden is a very good player.  Look at how he started this season.  Yes, the injury sucks, but he should be back and will be a very good player.  Should all of the corner outfielders eventually make it, the Twins will have the luxury of trading a good young player for a big return.  Yes, that player could be Roden.  Or it could be any one of three or four others.  They also had to be excited about Rojas.  Won't know whether they thought Rojas or Roden was the key to the trade, could have been either.  Or both. 

Looking at the team, it sure seems like they did about three-quarters of a total rebuild.  Come July they need to finish it.  That means trying to extend players like Ryan and Jeffers.  If they can't get it done, move them and finish a total rebuild.  That should include trading several others.  Players like Larnach, Wallner, Bell and unless he turns the corner soon, even Lewis.  Cut the best deals and move on to 2027 and beyond.

In the meantime, their bullpen needs a fix.  After his brief appearance this week, the Twins need to get Rojas back to the big club.  I hope they use Rojas in a complete piggyback role.  Have a starter, say Ober begin the game and go 5+/- innings.  Then bring Rojas in to finish it, 4+/- innings.  Give the entire bullpen every fifth day off.  Or maybe better stated, keep the rest of the bullpen out of the game.  When Matthews gets a few more good starts under his belt, bring him up for the same role with another starter, maybe Prielipp who seems destined to go 5 innings max.  Same with Festa when/if he returns.  Get to the point of only using the remaining five guys in the pen a couple days a week.

I can't watch entire games anymore.  Fortunately, will have the Wild game tonight watching the Twins between periods.  But I can get excited about the future should the FO finish what they started last July. 

[Vanimal46]

Thanks for the reminder Nick...

Also, former TD punching bag Christian Vazquez with a 153 OPS+ as Houston's backup C, and Ty France with a 148 OPS+ as San Diego's backup corner IF. We didn't need them.   

[East Coast Twin]

It would be interesting to see if Falvey is willing to discuss what transpired that day, what led to the decision to trade the bullpen at the deadline.

 

[DJL44]

The trade will have less impact if the Twins squander Roden’s best years in AAA. Play him or trade him.

[JD-TWINS]

22 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Thanks for the reminder Nick...

Also, former TD punching bag Christian Vazquez with a 153 OPS+ as Houston's backup C, and Ty France with a 148 OPS+ as San Diego's backup corner IF. We didn't need them.   

Poor acquisitions by the idiot Falvey!

[IndianaTwin]

I wonder how many Rays Daily articles have been written on how the Twins fleeced Tampa Bay on the Jax for Bradley trade. 

Point being, you win some and you lose some. Varland would be a huge help in the bullpen right now, but at this point, (Bradley + Abel + Rojas) > (Jax + Duran + Varland) and that doesn't even take into account Tait and what's to come. I'll wait a while to get my shorts bunched up too tightly. 

[JD-TWINS]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The trade will have less impact if the Twins squander Roden’s best years in AAA. Play him or trade him.

He was the throw in as Rojas was the centerpiece - Roden is hurt & out for weeks at AAA. He was hurt last year as well after being placed on 26 Man. The season is 31 games old.

[Major League Ready]

6 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Poor acquisitions by the idiot Falvey!

Let's try to be a little more objective or at least acknowledge reality.  If Falvey is an idiot based on the Vasquez decision than the vast majority of posters here (including me) are idiots too because most of us were looking forward to the end of Vazquez in Minnesota.   Anyone here who would have predicted this kind of performance from Vazquez would have been ridiculed.

[Coach Wheels]

44 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

100% He was our next closer and homegrown on top of it! As of now, we don't even have a plan going forward. 

We can do an article a week this year on the failings of our bullpen, it will get old quickly.

It would be nice to have Roden up and getting AB's soon so we can truly judge the trade.as a whole. Right now, Jays are lapping us.

[JBK]

We need our starters to go as long as possible to keep the BP out of the game. 

[Major League Ready]

I did not care for the Varland trade but understood there is greater potential value in a starter as compared to a reliever.  In aggregate, the sell-off is looking like a major boost toward putting a contender on the field.  They traded 3 valuable assets in Duran, Jax, and Varland.  The Duran and Jax trades are looking very good.  Those trades look like they will be providing significant value long after Duran and Jax would have been gone through free agency.  The Varland deal is definitely more questionable.  They could have held on to him and cashed in at some point in the future.  Now, if Rojas becomes a 2 or 3, and Roden is a contributor, it's hard to criticize the timing of the move.   

 

[Hunter4848]

42 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Poor acquisitions by the idiot Falvey!

This has to be Falvey's burner account...

[JD-TWINS]

30 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Let's try to be a little more objective or at least acknowledge reality.  If Falvey is an idiot based on the Vasquez decision than the vast majority of posters here (including me) are idiots too because most of us were looking forward to the end of Vazquez in Minnesota.   Anyone here who would have predicted this kind of performance from Vazquez would have been ridiculed.

Hello - I guess my sarcasm wasn’t obvious……..I was making fun of people here that think Falvey never made a good trade - yet Joe Ryan - Taj Bradley - Mick Abel are on the Roster and most think they are great. Never made a good FA signing, yet signed consecutive Gold Glove winning guys at 1B.

Tough to be critical of the 153OPS+ & 143OPS+ put up by Vazquez & France so far. ….. it’s a LOOONG season though…… Josh Bell was around .600 WAR 15 days or so ago & is now at -.100 WAR, all in April.