Twins Select High-Octane SoCal Arm with 3rd Overall Pick in First 2026 MLB Mock Draft

[Jamie Cameron]

Welcome to the 2026 MLB Consensus Draft Board. This is the fifth version of the board, which started in 2022 as a top 30. Since then, it’s expanded to around 150 players on an annual basis, featuring at eight different team sites. So what is the Consensus Board? How is it made? How should it be used?

The concept is loosely based on Arif Hasan’s NFL Consensus Board. It’s meant to be a tool for folks getting interested in the MLB Draft. As I was learning about the draft, I struggled to navigate wildly varied rankings and evaluations of players. The Consensus Board takes every major publicly available board and combines them into a consensus ranking, eliminating some of the noise and variance of an extremely challenging evaluation process. We’ve found this process to be useful in ranking players in appropriate ranges through the first five (or so) rounds of the draft.

On the board, you’ll find player names, handedness, listed height and weight, age, and a write-up, walking through their strengths and weaknesses as a prospect. As we go through the cycle, these will be updated with tweaks, final college stats, and more. Every time a major outlet (Baseball America, ESPN, The Athletic, etc.) releases an updated list, the consensus ranking shifts. As such, the board is a lagging reflection of what the industry thinks of the class and its key players. The final Consensus Board will incorporate at least 10 other boards as inputs.

New MLB Mock Draft Board Features

There are a few important features to point out to help you navigate the board. There’s a search bar to help you find players of interest. If you click ‘expand,’ the board will focus on the writeup you are engaged with, in addition to one immediately above it and one immediately below it. Additionally, you’ll find the logo of your team next to their draft slots to help understand where they are picking. There will be a player slotted there, based on their consensus ranking. Rather than using that ranking as an indicator of who they might actually pick, it’s more useful to use it as a proxy for what caliber of talent is available at that slot. We’ll dig in deeper to team-specific mock drafts later in the cycle. The last important note is that this year, the board features ‘push’ updates. It updates automatically every hour. The board is typically updated with new write-ups five days per week, so check back regularly.

At #3, The Minnesota Twins Select: Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

Flora pitched behind No. 2 overall pick Tyler Bremner in 2025, and returns a year later to headline the Gauchos' rotation, himself a contender to be a top-three pick. Flora has an ideal frame for a starter, standing 6-foot-5 and weighing 205 pounds, with some additional strength still to be added.

After pitching primarily as a reliever as a freshman, Flora took on a starting role as a sophomore and thrived, managing a 3.15 FIP in 75 innings, while striking out close to 28% of the hitters he faced. The stuff is loud. Flora primarily relies on a fastball, slider, and changeup combination, though he does access a cutter and curveball occasionally, too. It's a high-spin fastball (up to 2,600 RPM), topping out at 100 MPH from a low release height.

Flora throws two iterations of his slider, a harder version around 87 mph, and a sweeper that generates 19 inches of horizontal movement. To add to this intriguing arsenal, Flora has been an excellent strike thrower in college, walking just 5.5% of hitters in 2025.

Flora has separated himself as SP1 early in the 2026 cycle. There's room for development and refinement of his pitch shapes and arsenal, but this is front-of-the-rotation arm talent and upside. At the moment, he's the type of player Twins fans can expect the team to be discussing when they're on the clock this July. Demographically, he'd be an unusual choice for this team, but then again, the front office has undergone some major changes recently. It's a whole new world.

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[Peter Gravett]

Great read Jamie. It's going to be really fun watching this evolve. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Thanks Jamie. This information is interesting.

[Dman]

I like Flora and he seems at least for the moment to be top 4 or 5 on most boards.  I don't know that I see a Skenes like path there, but he has top of the rotation stuff.

You can never have too many potential top of the rotation arms in the system, but I just don't see Flora as the Twins pick at three.  I think the Twins will go with a bat at three.  You look at the farm system and current team and this team is in need of impact bats more than arms. Given that Cholowski, Emerson and Lackey appear to be top 3 I'd say the pick will be one of those players.

Cholowski still appears to be the favorite to go number 1, but I wouldn't be surprised if Chicago cut a deal with Lackey.  My reasoning would be that they just took a good defensive shortstop in Carlson last year and Catchers with Lackeys skills seem be a once a decade type of player.  It is incredibly hard to find a catcher with potential elite defense and offense especially one who could play a solid third base or left field if needed. If they could get a player like that and save money I think they do that. 

It looks like Chicago will be in the running for another high pick next year and given how many shortstops there are at the top of boards it will be easier for them to take another crack next year.  The odds of finding a catcher like Lackey might take another ten years.

The Twins should be happy with any of the top three bats and if they can save a little money they could still get an ace level high school arm later in the draft.  If they skip on the bat early going with Flora they will be hard pressed to find an elite bat in the second round.  That is why so many teams go hitter first in the first round IMO.  The Twins have found valuable arms later in the draft but I can't think of anyone outside the second round that has made it on the Twins with the bat.

I like Flora and he might be worthy of the third overall pick, but I just don't see him jumping in over the top three bats.

[Peter Gravett]

I like Flora and I like Flukey. Going to be real interesting to see if Flukey still shows well after this injury and see where he ultimately lands on the boards. There could be a bargain to be had on that one. 

[Jamie Cameron]

11 minutes ago, Dman said:

I like Flora and he seems at least for the moment to be top 4 or 5 on most boards.  I don't know that I see a Skenes like path there, but he has top of the rotation stuff.

You can never have too many potential top of the rotation arms in the system, but I just don't see Flora as the Twins pick at three.  I think the Twins will go with a bat at three.  You look at the farm system and current team and this team is in need of impact bats more than arms. Given that Cholowski, Emerson and Lackey appear to be top 3 I'd say the pick will be one of those players.

Cholowski still appears to be the favorite to go number 1, but I wouldn't be surprised if Chicago cut a deal with Lackey.  My reasoning would be that they just took a good defensive shortstop in Carlson last year and Catchers with Lackeys skills seem be a once a decade type of player.  It is incredibly hard to find a catcher with potential elite defense and offense especially one who could play a solid third base or left field if needed. If they could get a player like that and save money I think they do that. 

It looks like Chicago will be in the running for another high pick next year and given how many shortstops there are at the top of boards it will be easier for them to take another crack next year.  The odds of finding a catcher like Lackey might take another ten years.

The Twins should be happy with any of the top three bats and if they can save a little money they could still get an ace level high school arm later in the draft.  If they skip on the bat early going with Flora they will be hard pressed to find an elite bat in the second round.  That is why so many teams go hitter first in the first round IMO.  The Twins have found valuable arms later in the draft but I can't think of anyone outside the second round that has made it on the Twins with the bat.

I like Flora and he might be worthy of the third overall pick, but I just don't see him jumping in over the top three bats.

Always appreciate your thoughtful responses. Good read. We're in the midst of a lot of major board updates atm. If I had to make a prediction, I'd suggest that in two weeks, there will be a pretty 'formed' T4 of Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora. As of today, I'd think Emerson or Lackey are the most likely selections. I'd be happy with either, personally. Obviously, I'll post more in-depth write ups of options as the season winds down.

[Jamie Cameron]

2 minutes ago, Peter Gravett said:

I like Flora and I like Flukey. Going to be real interesting to see if Flukey still shows well after this injury and see where he ultimately lands on the boards. There could be a bargain to be had on that one. 

Flukey's return is a bit of a wild card. He's back on Sunday. He'll have to be lights out down the stretch, but as Carlos Collazo pointed out on our POD, he could force his way into the mix. Outside shot for me, but definitely worth paying attention to.

[twinstalker]

It's hard to take a consensus board seriously that has Justin Lebron so high.

[Otaknam]

Flora has a chance to be a number one starter, given his stuff, velocity, and command. When was the last time the Twins had a real number one inning eater, like a Verlander or Roger Clemens, someone you can count on to stop a losing streak? Liriano? I know the definition of a number one starter has changed, and no one throws 250 innings anymore. I view Ryan and Lopez as number two starters, which isn’t bad. But I really like adding Flora to the rotation. 

[Dman]

4 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

It's hard to take a consensus board seriously that has Justin Lebron so high.

A lot of boards won't get updated until the beginning of May.  He is going to drop as it doesn't appear the swing and miss has improved.  Still keep in mind Honeycutt had similar problems in 2024 and still was pick number 20.  Lebron is tooled up and will look like a more decent risk later on.  He looks to be back half of the first round unless teams just don't think the swing and miss is fixable. If that is the case he might fall into the second round kind of like Amick. 

[Blyleven2011]

Thanks Jamie  , I read 40 and that was enough for now ....

Draft choices usually startt their pro careers and concentrate on developing their skills to a polished level throughout the minor leagues  ...

Is there a draftee that has or can be a 5 tool player in this years coming draft ? 

Just reading their projections and not knowing the individual like you do it's difficult in knowing who to chose  ...

Thanks ...

[Jamie Cameron]

44 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

It's hard to take a consensus board seriously that has Justin Lebron so high.

There's a pretty clear explanation that account for this. Literally called out that it's a 'lagging reflection' of what the actual rankings are. 

[LambchoP]

We just need to hit it big with whoever we pick. Twins have suffered enough. We are due for a high draft pick to finally stay healthy and break out right from the start:)

[Jamie Cameron]

30 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Thanks Jamie  , I read 40 and that was enough for now ....

Draft choices usually startt their pro careers and concentrate on developing their skills to a polished level throughout the minor leagues  ...

Is there a draftee that has or can be a 5 tool player in this years coming draft ? 

Just reading their projections and not knowing the individual like you do it's difficult in knowing who to chose  ...

Thanks ...

That's a fun talker. I don't really love the phrase because there's not really a normed definition of what that means. 55s across the board? I'm not sure there is, in this class. Cholowsky is close, but he's an average runner. Emerson if the power ticks up a bit.

[DataNerd]

My heart wants the ace upside of Flora, but my brain says that a bat is the smarter pick.  I'd be happy with any of the top 4, and going with an underslot move that isn't one of them would just be outsmarting ourselves.

[DataNerd]

40 minutes ago, Dman said:

A lot of boards won't get updated until the beginning of May.  He is going to drop as it doesn't appear the swing and miss has improved.  Still keep in mind Honeycutt had similar problems in 2024 and still was pick number 20.  Lebron is tooled up and will look like a more decent risk later on.  He looks to be back half of the first round unless teams just don't think the swing and miss is fixable. If that is the case he might fall into the second round kind of like Amick. 

Lebron's whiff problems aren't as bad as Honeycutt's were, and he is also a SS.  However, Honeycutt has been abysmal (40% K rate in A+ last year, 50% this year repeating the level), so I wouldn't find solace in Lebron being better than he was.

[KBJ1]

A five tool OF bat or an Ace pitcher. Just as long as they don't draft yet another SS. They literally draft 10 middle Infielders every year, and yet they have no one who can field the position.

[Mike Sixel]

The C or SP for me all day. All day.

Lewis is a great example that "the bat is always healthy"....isn't true.