What the Heck Is Going On with Zebby Matthews?

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins entered spring training with a handful of rotation questions, and Zebby Matthews looked like one of the more straightforward answers. Even with some competition, injuries to Pablo López and David Festa seemed to clear a path for him to break camp in the big-league rotation.

Instead, a rough spring changed the equation. Matthews was ultimately optioned to Triple-A, and the expectation at that point felt pretty simple: go to St. Paul, get right, and force the issue again. So far, that hasn’t happened, either. Through his first three starts with the St. Paul Saints, the overall line isn’t pretty. Matthews has thrown 12 1/3 innings, allowing 12 earned runs on 21 hits, including five home runs. He’s also walked four and struck out just 10.

Those 21 hits jump off the page, and they’re not coming from a lack of control. Hitters are earning their way on base by putting the ball in play. A big reason for that becomes clear when you look at the swing-and-miss numbers; he’s just not missing bats right now.

His swinging strike rate is sitting at just 11% thus far. That’s not a terrible number on its own, but after being in the 13-14% range over the last couple of years, it’s a noticeable decline. He’s also sporting just a 16.4% strikeout rate, which is a significant drop from his 25% rate last year in the majors. When that ability dips, everything else starts to get a little more fragile. More contact means more opportunities for hitters to square balls up, and that’s also showing up in the quality of contact. 

Opponents' average exit velocity against Matthews is up by about 2 MPH compared to last season, and when that’s paired with more pulled contact, it can lead to exactly what we’ve seen early on. Opponents have pulled 57% of the balls they’ve put in play against him, which is typically a sign that they’re seeing the ball well and getting the barrel out front.

The five home runs he’s allowed are a devastating result of that consistent hard, pulled contact, but they're also a product of some bad luck. More than one out of every three fly balls he’s given up has left the yard. That’s not a rate that will hold over time, but it does highlight how little margin for error he’s had.

A big part of that comes back to his stuff. Matthews’s velocity is down across the board. His fastball, sinker, and cutter are each sitting about 1 MPH lower than they were last season. His slider has dipped slightly, and his curveball is down even more significantly, by roughly 2.5 MPH.

Even small drops like that can have a noticeable impact. If hitters don’t have to respect the same level of velocity, it becomes easier to time things up and make consistent contact. That can snowball quickly, especially when paired with a drop in swing-and-miss. It also helps explain why hitters have been so comfortable putting the ball in play. Without that extra life, Matthews hasn’t been able to generate the same level of deception or separation between his pitches.

That said, there are still a couple of underlying indicators that engender optimism. His hard-hit rate currently sits at 38.3%, which is down slightly from last season. He’s also generating ground balls at a 45.7% clip, a strong shift for a pitcher who has historically been much more fly ball-heavy in the majors. In theory, that combination should limit damage, not amplify it. So there’s at least some element of poor luck mixed into these early results.

With all that in mind, it’s worth noting that there’s also a mental side to this. Matthews came into camp with a strong shot at a rotation spot, particularly given the injuries around him, and to miss out on that opportunity can’t be an easy situation. Confidence and execution tend to go hand-in-hand, and early struggles can make both harder to regain.

It’s important to keep the sample size in perspective. We’re talking about 12 1/3 innings here. That’s nothing over the course of a full season, and a couple of strong outings could shift his entire statistical profile in a hurry. Matthews has shown in the past that he’s capable of missing bats and limiting damage at a much higher level than this. But early trends still matter, especially when they’re tied to underlying changes in stuff. If his velocity and swing-and-miss numbers start to get back to 2025 levels, the results should follow. Right now, that’s the biggest thing to watch.

The Twins are going to need starting pitching depth at some point this season, and Matthews is still very much part of that picture. But for now, this is a very slow start for a pitcher who hasn’t found any real consistency.

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[nicksaviking]

I had high hopes for Matthews as a starter, but at some point you need to make the switch, and that point is clearly now. 

I disagree that starting pitching depth is needed if this is what the depth looks like. If you're in a pinch and you need a guy in the rotation, Matthews hasn't shown that he can do any better than the guys floating around on the waiver wire.

Relief work is valuable too, and the bullpen needs velocity. He might struggle with the switch right away, but hopefully by next year, he's the next Jax/Duran/Varland.

[FlyingFinn]

Matthews velocity being down is a concern. But according to the Saints radio broadcast, the Twins want him to work on improving another pitch, one that adds to his arsenal. Thus he is throwing more of his bad pitches right now (not sure if the stats prove that to be the case).  I forget exactly what pitch that is. Maybe someone can help me out on here.

[DarrenPS]

Feels pretty simple, get velo back & he's fine, velo doesn't return & he's cooked

[Parfigliano]

He has only thrown about 120 MLB innings and given up almost 2HR per 9. Too much contact, especially hard contact, has always been his problem.  His contact rate going up in AAA does not bode well for his future as a starter.

[FlyingFinn]

5 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

His contact rate going up in AAA does not bode well for his future as a starter.

Really feels like he's on the Louie Varland route at the moment.

[DataNerd]

On 4/16/2026 at 11:41 AM, FlyingFinn said:

Matthews velocity being down is a concern. But according to the Saints radio broadcast, the Twins want him to work on improving another pitch, one that adds to his arsenal. Thus he is throwing more of his bad pitches right now (not sure if the stats prove that to be the case).  I forget exactly what pitch that is. Maybe someone can help me out on here.

In 25 he threw his change/curve/sinker 21% of the time in MLB and 12% in AAA.  It is currently at 35% at AAA.  His change is now called a splitter so it may be a different pitch, and it is currently getting 3 inches more armside movement then his change was.  Curveball is 4mph slower and is moved to being more of a horizontal pitch, while last year it was mostly vertical movement.  The curve is missing more bats, while the splitter seems about the same

Not all good news though, the fastball whiff rate went from 24% in AAA to 10%, slider from 40% to 32%.  Really needs to get the velo back to where it was.

[Fatbat]

Its a speed bump in his career. He will be fine. Might be due to a nagging injury or disappointment of not making the MLB ODR. He has plenty of good baseball in him.

[mikelink45]

I had really high hopes for Matthews. This is very discouraging year and I hope it's just a blip and he can come back

[mark allen]

I still have high hopes for Zebby. He did need more time in the minors, he didn't get enough time to learn new pitches as some as the others, He will turn this season around in the next month.

[Linus]

Here is the thing: Zebby hasn’t been good in the big leagues so this idea that he had a straightforward path to the Twins rotation is silly. I hope he figures it out and can contribute to the the Twins in the rotation or the pen but that is clearly no sure thing. I think this is a classic example of hopes getting way ahead of actual performance. The hardest jump is the last one from AAA to the bigs. 

[PuckettProtector]

Have said day one he needs to be in bullpen. His stuff isn't built for being a starter. He's shown that over and over. 

[h2oface]

Just another failed pitching prospect groomed by the Twins, and overrated attention by writers. Surprised?

[Hubie29]

Simple... he's just not that good

[bean5302]

Matthews isn't landing first pitch strikes and he's working on other pitches, probably because he's throwing his fastball only 25% of the time. His velocity is higher than it was 2 years ago so I'm not worried about it.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

17 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Really feels like he's on the Louie Varland route at the moment.

Which would not be an awful outcome. 

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Matthews velocity being down is a concern. But according to the Saints radio broadcast, the Twins want him to work on improving another pitch, one that adds to his arsenal. Thus he is throwing more of his bad pitches right now (not sure if the stats prove that to be the case).  I forget exactly what pitch that is. Maybe someone can help me out on here.

He was already throwing 6 pitches coming into the year………adding another pitch? …….., with lack of success, seems pairing down to 3-4 pitches (focus) and shifting to PEN to help increase velocity to a maximum & thus providing VALUE in ‘26 seems to be a decent path for Zebby & the Team.

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, h2oface said:

Just another failed pitching prospect groomed by the Twins, and overrated attention by writers. Surprised?

He was a draft pick in the mid teens, a flyer - he went through 3 levels in Minors in 3.5 months 2 summers ago - the Team needs to get him focussed with fewer options in his pitch repertoire - Duran, Jax, Sands, MeGill, Varland were all “failed” starters………numerous others in Twin’s organization & essentially every other reliever ever, were failed starters.

Definitely, as you point out, overrated by writers and too many expectations too quickly. I think he can have real value from PEN - but that’s a fan opinion & nothing else.

[FlyingFinn]

36 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

He was already throwing 6 pitches coming into the year………adding another pitch?

Improving another pitch, not adding to pitches he's capable of throwing. He really doesn't use 6 pitches when in the majors, at least not all in any kind of frequency that I recall. Zebby needs to add to his quality pitches that he can throw in the majors. If not, he is surely heading to the bullpen. As @Bangkok Twins Fan said above, not terrible if he turns into Louie Varland.

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, DarrenPS said:

Feels pretty simple, get velo back & he's fine, velo doesn't return & he's cooked

He wasn’t “fine” when he had his previous velocity. Pitch mix & LOCATION is what he and every other pitcher needs to master. He doesn’t need to average 96-97 to be effective. His “margin for error” may get a touch bigger with more velocity?

[DarrenPS]

8 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

He wasn’t “fine” when he had his previous velocity. Pitch mix & LOCATION is what he and every other pitcher needs to master. He doesn’t need to average 96-97 to be effective. His “margin for error” may get a touch bigger with more velocity?

His FIP was a 3.79 last year even if the ERA was looking ugly. now that the velo is gone, his FIP is in the 8's in AAA

[TopGunn#22]

This is just a baffling mystery.  I agree with the idea that he doesn't need MORE pitches.  He needs better command of his pitches, and that usually comes down to working on fewer pitches to improve his command of 3 or 4 offerings.

Dasan Hill is lurking.  Moving Zebby to the BP now doesn't need to be permanent.  But it may be needed to narrow his array of pitches into refining 2-3 that he can actually command.  

[twinzcynic]

You're telling me, that this organization notorious for not developing their own starters, has yet again transformed a "once promising" starter into a middle reliever? I for one am shocked!

[darin617]

On 4/16/2026 at 11:35 AM, nicksaviking said:

I had high hopes for Matthews as a starter, but at some point you need to make the switch, and that point is clearly now. 

I disagree that starting pitching depth is needed if this is what the depth looks like. If you're in a pinch and you need a guy in the rotation, Matthews hasn't shown that he can do any better than the guys floating around on the waiver wire.

Relief work is valuable too, and the bullpen needs velocity. He might struggle with the switch right away, but hopefully by next year, he's the next Jax/Duran/Varland.

I would disagree with making a switch now. He has struggled but he's only had 3 starts so far. Pulling the plug on him now would be a mistake. If he's moved to the bullpen in St Paul he will not be throwing enough to hopefully snap himself out of his current funk. 

I would think part of his struggles are a mental thing right now. He was in the majors last year and didn't make the team this year. That could have him doubting his stuff. He should keep working on it in St Paul and if he continues to struggle into June then you either move him to the pen or send him down to AA. It could mentally ruin him or be the motivation he needs to turn it around.

[darin617]

On 4/16/2026 at 12:24 PM, DarrenPS said:

Feels pretty simple, get velo back & he's fine, velo doesn't return & he's cooked

A pitcher doesn't need to throw in the upper 90's to succeed. Hitters can time a pitch, it's more about the location and changing speeds. Just look at Aroldis Chapman in the Boston series. Hitters were looking for the upper 90's to 100 and made them look foolish with an 86 mph slider. 

[darin617]

23 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Really feels like he's on the Louie Varland route at the moment.

I can agree with that, but pulling the plug after 3 starts is foolish. 

[nicksaviking]

3 minutes ago, darin617 said:

I would disagree with making a switch now. He has struggled but he's only had 3 starts so far. Pulling the plug on him now would be a mistake. If he's moved to the bullpen in St Paul he will not be throwing enough to hopefully snap himself out of his current funk. 

I would think part of his struggles are a mental thing right now. He was in the majors last year and didn't make the team this year. That could have him doubting his stuff. He should keep working on it in St Paul and if he continues to struggle into June then you either move him to the pen or send him down to AA. It could mentally ruin him or be the motivation he needs to turn it around.

The funk is longer than 3 games. It's been the entirety of his MLB career. And getting further demoted to AA isn't how it works. 

Going to the pen is no longer some shameful demotion. I'm not writing him off in any sense, as I have full belief he can and will be a great contributor for this team. But if this team is going to rebuild after losing Duran, Jax and Varland, they need to do it with the next crop of Duran, Jax and Varland. All three of those guys held more value as a reliever than they ever did as a starter. A mid-to-back of the rotation guy like SWR wouldn't fetch a return anywhere close to what any of those three got.

Moving a starter to a high leverage relief role isn't giving up on a guy. In today's baseball it's more like moving a guy from SS to 3B because his glove doesn't quite play up the middle. Playing 3B can be just as valuable.

[DarrenPS]

2 hours ago, darin617 said:

A pitcher doesn't need to throw in the upper 90's to succeed. Hitters can time a pitch, it's more about the location and changing speeds. Just look at Aroldis Chapman in the Boston series. Hitters were looking for the upper 90's to 100 and made them look foolish with an 86 mph slider. 

Every pitcher is different. Some have wacky arm slots, some how extension to be deceptive, etc. If you are Zebby and you don't have that velo you clearly arn't fooling anyone anymore is his issue. Velo is not end all be all, but for Zebby it seems to be the difference between being quad A or being a major leaguer. I'm not cheering against him, this is just what his performances have shown 

[bean5302]

16 minutes ago, DarrenPS said:

Every pitcher is different. Some have wacky arm slots, some how extension to be deceptive, etc. If you are Zebby and you don't have that velo you clearly arn't fooling anyone anymore is his issue. Velo is not end all be all, but for Zebby it seems to be the difference between being quad A or being a major leaguer. I'm not cheering against him, this is just what his performances have shown 

Matthews is throwing harder in AAA right now than he was in MLB in 2024. He's clearly tinkering with his repertoire. Four seam fastballs generate strike outs. Sinkers generate ground balls, not strikeouts.

[h2oface]

7 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

He was a draft pick in the mid teens, a flyer - he went through 3 levels in Minors in 3.5 months 2 summers ago - the Team needs to get him focussed with fewer options in his pitch repertoire - Duran, Jax, Sands, MeGill, Varland were all “failed” starters………numerous others in Twin’s organization & essentially every other reliever ever, were failed starters.

Definitely, as you point out, overrated by writers and too many expectations too quickly. I think he can have real value from PEN - but that’s a fan opinion & nothing else.

Agreed. I wouldn’t call Duran a failed starter, though. He was moved to relief by management to create less stress on his rehabbing arm, and never given the chance again to start, even though he expressed that’s desire for a couple years.