Five Pohlad Family Minnesota Twins Payroll Levels, and What They'll Mean

[tony&rodney]

57 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The evidence of how to win with average or less revenue is as clear as the advantage of a larger payroll.  Ignoring that very clear evidence is not what I hope for from the Twins.  I want them to follow the acquisition strategies that have made the teams mentioned above successful.  Those strategies are at odds with building through free agency.  Those teams also do far more trading for prospects than they do trading away prospects.  

A low payroll in 2026 would be indicative of following the strategies that have made Cleveland, Tampa, and Milwaukee successful.  Once they actually have a viable core, they should spend for final piece or two.  We are not remotely in that position.

What might be interesting to people is to see the financial numbers for ALCentral teams for 2026. 

Fangraphs estimated payroll and estimated luxury tax payroll:

Twins:           $72.4M                                    $91M

Royals:         $88.2M.                                   $124.2M

White Sox:    $41.3M.                                   $61.3M

Tigers:          $50.7M.                                  $71.2M

Guardians:   $60.7M.                                  $81.4M

Those who are interested could look up the average age of the teams, MLB experience, and other factors such as talent level which all help determine level of success. People will come to their own conclusions. Detroit is in the driver's seat at this time.

The Twins have a minor league system that is ranked favorably. The one note consistent across rankings is that the Twins have fewer high end prospects but more prospects who could eventually reach MLB. In other words, a somewhat conflicting report on the viability of leaning on the farm to produce what is needed going forward. Ultimately, teams need talent to compete. After that talent puts a team in contention, the financial wherewithal is needed to hold the most valuable players. 

I believe the Twins need to make a push for talent this winter which requires trades. The original article suggests spending will bring success. Yes, spending is correlated to success in many cases. The problem is in identifying and successfully adding players. When I see suggestions to add Rhys Hoskins and Jordan Montgomery, for example, I cringe. Who are the guys who will sign with the Twins? Finally, the history of the Pohlad ownership doesn't portend spending $160M. Is that even a consideration?

Let's fix the talent on the roster first.

[bunsen82]

My personal guess is $105 to $110 million.   Twins are in a tough spot of extreme fan indifference with not a lot of hope that they can truly compete in the next year.  2026 will be a transition year.   How can you improve the product,  while either cutting costs - reallocating costs and setting the organization to make another run.  

1. Trade Lopez - Lopez would get back decent a mediocre prospect or player while opening up $20 million of salary.  There is an aspect the team could get better by redeploying this money elsewhere. I personally would keep Lopez and see how the team is performing and whether his performance is similar to what it was at the beginning of the year.   

2. Trade Ryan -  This would result in a massive return.  The twins got back an aggregate value of around 25 on the trade calculators for Duran.  Ryan is worth an aggregate north of 50.   It is much more difficult to find a team willing to give up that much value though.  

Buxton is not getting traded its not even worth hypothesizing about.  His family is rooted in the Twin Cities.  

3.  Trade from position of strength (not Lopez or Ryan) to rebuild bullpen or get a 1st baseman.  We have a ton of depth in starting pitchers.  Effectively going 9 deep of players that should be at MLB level.  

     A. Ryan 2. Lopez 3. Ober 4. Matthews 5. SWR 6. Bradley 7. Abel 8. Festa  9. Morris   - They may also be  willing to dangle Hill or Soto if the return is good enough (ala Petty for Gray).  

4. Utilize $20 to $25 million or by some combination with trades to find 2-3 relievers and a starting 1st baseman.    

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The evidence of how to win with average or less revenue is as clear as the advantage of a larger payroll.  Ignoring that very clear evidence is not what I hope for from the Twins.  I want them to follow the acquisition strategies that have made the teams mentioned above successful.  Those strategies are at odds with building through free agency.  Those teams also do far more trading for prospects than they do trading away prospects.  

 

I would add to this teams in this situation don't and shouldn't extend players on the wrong side of 30, unless it is a generational talent like Ramirez and they need to have enough minor league talent that when they trade players away the have multiple options to replace those players, since most are not going to pan out, and that is the piece the Twins have been missing the last few years. You could say they have had Ryan, Ober, and Jeffers and so far everybody other prospects hasn't been consistent enough or healthy enough to replace anybody. ( I don't include relief pitchers because that is where the failed starters end up, mostly)  

And if things don't go as planned, you have to be agile enough to change up some of you ideas and figure out how to get the most out of the guys you have. Also and failure of this FO/Manager. 

 

 

 

 

 

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

- Minority ownership still yet to be approved 

I keep seeing this, and I don't understand why people seem to be convinced this is going to be an issue. They haven't been approved yet because there hasn't been an ownership meeting where they could be approved. There really isn't any urgency here, and I'm unclear why anyone thinks they won't be approved; basically the only way they won't be approved to be minority investors is if they're so effin' shady as to embarrass MLB (nigh-impossible) or are overtly engaged in gambling or illicit behavior.

Unless it's money from a betting site, porn, or the mob MLB will approve it.

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

This team has a LOT of pre-arb talent. It doesn't need to spend $160M to be competitive. The Brewers led the NL in wins with a $120M payroll.

I would be looking to trade Ober and Larnach because they have better, cheaper, younger talent ready to take those spots. That frees up $12M and returns talent to fill holes elsewhere.

If they're going to spend money, SS, C and 1B are the places to spend. I don't think they need to spend $75M on those three positions to compete in the AL Central.

The White Sox (the only AL team with a worse record) outplayed the Twins in the 2nd half of the season. That doesn't exactly scream tons of talent.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

The most important thing is the transactions that Falvey and Zoll make, no matter what the number is. I don’t have a lot of faith in those two right now. 

They did pretty well signing Coulombe, Bader and France. That was pretty good bang for the buck. I think they can find a cheap 1B free agent again. Finding a C and SS will be more difficult - not much available on the free agent market. I hope they spend some money extending Jeffers contract.

[The Great Hambino]

21 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I keep seeing this, and I don't understand why people seem to be convinced this is going to be an issue. They haven't been approved yet because there hasn't been an ownership meeting where they could be approved. There really isn't any urgency here, and I'm unclear why anyone thinks they won't be approved; basically the only way they won't be approved to be minority investors is if they're so effin' shady as to embarrass MLB (nigh-impossible) or are overtly engaged in gambling or illicit behavior.

Unless it's money from a betting site, porn, or the mob MLB will approve it.

Yes, there's a very high likelihood that they'll be approved.  But they aren't yet, and Falvey has referenced on multiple occasions that the limited partners need to be brought in and consulted before choosing a direction for the offseason.  So, at least to me, it's an issue of timing instead of doubts they'll get approval.  It's certainly possible that the direction has already been determined and he's using the formality of approval to delay delivering the bad news.  But if we're to take him at his word (I know, I know), then they need the approval process to be completed before they can move on with their offseason plans.  And if that gets dragged out for whatever reason, it could complicate things if player transactions start happening around the league.  We can each determine for ourselves how much credibility we want to give to that idea.

Though there is a nonzero chance that the Pohlads find a way to bungle this limited partner approval process and put us all back to square one

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The White Sox (the only AL team with a worse record) outplayed the Twins in the 2nd half of the season. That doesn't exactly scream tons of talent.

Except for Keaschall, they held all of the really talented guys in AAA. The rookies they brought up to end the season were actually pretty old guys getting one last audition (Gasper, Fitzgerald, Outman, Keirsey, McCusker).

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins have a minor league system that is ranked favorably. The one note consistent across rankings is that the Twins have fewer high end prospects but more prospects who could eventually reach MLB. In other words, a somewhat conflicting report on the viability of leaning on the farm to produce what is needed going forward. Ultimately, teams need talent to compete. After that talent puts a team in contention, the financial wherewithal is needed to hold the most valuable players. 

I believe the Twins need to make a push for talent this winter which requires trades. 

Let's fix the talent on the roster first.

Are you looking to fix this roster to contend in 2026?  They would need to fill SS and 1B with trades or free agents.  Lewis is a pretty big question mark as well if you are looking to contend.  Do you hope that Lewis steps up or do you fill his position as well.  We also need a at least one corner OFer.  Do you fill these positions and hold Jenkins and Culpepper back?  I guess you hold back GG as well.  You don't go out and fill holes with free agents and trades only to replace those players with prospects, right?  If you are looking to trade for difference makers, you will need to trade away some combination of Jenkins/Culpepper/Tait/Abel/Matthews.  Is that what you are advocating?

[Nshore]

The 6th Pohlad payroll level is like the hide the ball game they play on the Twins scoreboard.  They move it around at warp speed until you have no idea where it's at.

 

[Vanimal46]

35 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I keep seeing this, and I don't understand why people seem to be convinced this is going to be an issue. They haven't been approved yet because there hasn't been an ownership meeting where they could be approved. There really isn't any urgency here, and I'm unclear why anyone thinks they won't be approved; basically the only way they won't be approved to be minority investors is if they're so effin' shady as to embarrass MLB (nigh-impossible) or are overtly engaged in gambling or illicit behavior.

Unless it's money from a betting site, porn, or the mob MLB will approve it.

I’m not concerned if they’ll get approved, but when they get approved like @The Great Hambinosaid. But besides that, the TV contract fiasco and record low attendance will play a bigger role in the 2026 budget. The Pohlads have never grasped the concept of investing in the on field product to gain more customers. They consistently place the blame on fans not showing up for their budgetary constraints 

[rationalfan]

5 hours ago, Rufus said:

Relax you could be an Athletics, Marlins, Pirates fan or lord forbid following everyone's example of what it takes to be a winning team a (gasp) Mets fan.  Yup the Mets they have the second highest payroll in baseball.  Their owner throws money around like confetti in a ticker tape parade.  Yet they have not been in the playoffs since 2015.  Cleveland and Milwaukee have lower payroll than the Twins but are both in the playoffs. The ridiculous idea that a teams success is based on how much their payroll is mystifies me.  The idea that the Twins payroll should graded on payroll is outright stupid. Going out and throwing money at 30 something ego laden free agents seldom works.  A team needs to build a team through a strong farm system.   It isn't how much money you spend it's how you spend your money.  

Bonnes has been particular hard on the Pohlads and the payroll, but my take on this article was that the payroll target would reveal the front office strategy.  I agree too much attention has been placed this fall on the Pohlads ($$) and not enough on front office including Falvey (player evaluation and player development).  The last two seasons the Twins have been the favorite by most national "experts" to win the AL Central.  Both seasons they got beaten soundly by teams with lower payrolls with the Guardians shedding MLB talent and still owning the Twins.  The team starting this season around $145M - if they had spent an extra $15 they would not have been a good team.  The model isn't working - 2019 and 2020 showed some early reward but it was a mirage - a juiced ball and a very short season deceived everyone into thinking that Falvine knew what they were doing.

That being said, reducing payroll by trading Pablo, Joe, and/or Buck would very likely impact performance the next couple of years since they are our best players.  Yes, they would generate a very good return of prospects, but we have not had a very good record lately of turning prospects into solid major leaguers (judged after at least one if not two seasons worth of games played).  I'm a very patient fan, but if they do option A or B it signifies a total rebuild which I lack the energy for - I will cancel my season tickets if they do that.

[rdehring]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The evidence is indisputable.  There is no doubt the highest payroll teams have produced the most playoff or 90-win teams if you want an easy objective to compare against.  That said, I bet the correlation between revenue and payroll is much higher than the correlation between winning and payroll.  The question that should be asked but never is would be how the Twins revenue rank compares to their payroll rank.  There have countless articles complaining about spending but if there has ever been an article that was meant to provide an objective and quantifiable measure of Twins spending, I missed it.  Not one TD writer has ever written an article focused on providing an objective measure as far as I know.  What is reasonable to expect is that the team spends the same percentage of revenue as other teams.  Expecting a team with 90% of average revenue to spend like a team with a 110% of average revenue will result in disappointment.  That's a $70M swing.

Perhaps more to the point is that three teams (Cleveland, Tampa, and Milwaukee) have been more successful than all of the other teams in the bottom half of revenue any many others outside the top 5 in revenue.  There is often almost an obsession with spending that tends to ignore the realities of revenue.  It also completely ignores how teams without a revenue advantage have managed to construct winning teams.  

The evidence of how to win with average or less revenue is as clear as the advantage of a larger payroll.  Ignoring that very clear evidence is not what I hope for from the Twins.  I want them to follow the acquisition strategies that have made the teams mentioned above successful.  Those strategies are at odds with building through free agency.  Those teams also do far more trading for prospects than they do trading away prospects.  

A low payroll in 2026 would be indicative of following the strategies that have made Cleveland, Tampa, and Milwaukee successful.  Once they actually have a viable core, they should spend for final piece or two.  We are not remotely in that position.

I could not agree more, MLB.  What a wonderful reasonable comment.  Thanks!

[Greglw3]

7 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

My expectation is payroll will be under 100 million.  Maybe significantly under 100 million.  As in the past fans will be blamed for the decrease payroll because of poor attendance.  For a team to trade so many players to cut payroll, it makes no sense to drive the payroll back up.  I fully expect Lopez will be traded to save another 21 million.  He's a luxury on a bottom feeding team like the Twins.  Pete Alonso?  I sure don't see that as an option.  Cost would be way too much.  The team need much more than an aging, albeit good, firstbaseman to be a contender.  My instinct tells me payroll will be significantly cut this off season.  We are likely headed for a few years of low payroll and very poor baseball.  I sincerely hope im wrong.  It could get very ugly.

 

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm more concerned about the talent on the roster and the style of play from the team. A plan that continues to lean on home runs for offense, going one base at a time doesn't score enough runs A group of players who work hard but struggle to be slightly below average or worse at fielding their position allows to many base hits that should be outs and stresses the pitching staff. As such, there needs to be changes in the 13 players who comprise the position player side of the roster. The changes we saw after August 15 seemed more like Baldelli than a new team approach.

I agree about the changes to the 13 position players. The Twins need to get back to their roots and have a good hitting team.

The farm system offers hope in combination with maybe two trades or free agents.

Only sure things for me are Buxton, Keaschall, Lewis and Martin, maybe Jeffers.

I had heard that the running game thing emanated from Jayce Tingler going to Baldelli and suggesting it. I hope they keep that up and find a lineup that can win in multiple ways rather than the wait for the HR approach they’ve embraced since the intoxication of 2019!

And a really good manager capable of being on top of in game management, strategy and hopefully more stable lineups.

[Cap'n Piranha]

6 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Concur.

There's an undeniable connection in MLB between payroll and winning  

True, but the reason some people keep missing this is because they don't understand what payroll actually does.  Sometimes it gets you the best player on the market (like Ohtani or Soto).  But most of the time what it does is allow a team another option to fix a previous mistake or fill a hole.  Once the Twins had maxed out with Correa, Buxton, Lopez, and Gray, every fix had to come from internal development.  That's a high bar to consistently clear.

Meanwhile, high spending teams can look at holes on their roster, and fill them in multiple ways (like the Dodgers spending relative peanuts on Sasaki, but also dropping real money on Snell).

[Cap'n Piranha]

5 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

We've got 40 something years of history with this ownership group. When have they ever spent to dig themselves out of a hole? I wouldn't advocate for it anyway, because it would be foolish to do so. 

- Minority ownership still yet to be approved

- TV contract still a mess... Are we going to be sold off to ESPN now? 

- Attendance next year will be at an all-time low 

$120 million is a stretch goal at best. Below $100 million is more likely while we wait for the "loaded farm system" to produce anything of relevance. 

Small and mid-market teams can't spend to dig themselves out of a hole.  If you want to add say 10 WAR to go from 75 wins to 85 wins, you need to spend $80M-$100M.  There is no way the Twins can do that in a single offseason barring something massively changing on the financial side.  What small and mid market teams can do is build a competitive core, then supplement it financially to try and make a run.  That is exactly what the Pohlads allowed Falvine to do after the corner was turned in 2019.  In the next 4 offseasons, the Twins gave substantial FA deals to Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson, and Carlos Correa (twice), traded prospect capital for Sonny Gray (while assuming the entirety of his contract) and Pablo Lopez, and extended Buxton and Lopez.

They did all of that despite the revenue-crushing pandemic (mostly in 2020, but also impacted the beginning of 2021), as well as a lockout that didn't help either.  My assumption is that this is when a large percentage of the half billion dollars of debt the Pohlads have allowed was accumulated.  You can question how effective the spending has been, and that is a completely fair point to bring up; but to pretend the Pohlads are money-grubbers looking to squeeze every dime possible out of the Twins through miserly cost-cutting just can't be done with a straight face anymore.  To be clear, I don't think the Pohlads are saints, and should be praised for their spending, I'm just saying they shouldn't be detracted for it either.

[USAFChief]

12 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

True, but the reason some people keep missing this is because they don't understand what payroll actually does.  Sometimes it gets you the best player on the market (like Ohtani or Soto).  But most of the time what it does is allow a team another option to fix a previous mistake or fill a hole.  Once the Twins had maxed out with Correa, Buxton, Lopez, and Gray, every fix had to come from internal development.  That's a high bar to consistently clear.

Meanwhile, high spending teams can look at holes on their roster, and fill them in multiple ways (like the Dodgers spending relative peanuts on Sasaki, but also dropping real money on Snell).

That's one thing money does, sure.

But I'd say the reason people keep missing the money-winning correlation is they don't bother to do any investigation, and/or don't understand sample size.

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The White Sox (the only AL team with a worse record) outplayed the Twins in the 2nd half of the season. That doesn't exactly scream tons of talent.

The White Sox started their rebuild at the deadline in 2023, a full 24 months before the Twins started theirs.  Of course the White Sox are further along in getting their young talent to the majors.  The Sox also sent out their top assets, most notably Giolito and Crochet--the Twins have not (at least not yet) moved on from their best asset.

[tony&rodney]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/08/2025-26-mlb-free-agents.html

The above link will take you to those players expected to be available as free agents. Whenever I hear about adding middle of the order bats (much less two or three) and also adding 2-3 good relief pitchers, I wonder who exactly are people talking about. Who would sign with the Twins? Are the Twins going to shift their financial practices? 

I remember the cry to add Jordan Montgomery and Rhys Hoskins a couple of years ago, which seemed so far off for improving the team. I begged for several trades instead, but alas a couple of those guys will now be released and one other might get one last shot.

When Bonnes puts down the money spent with a grade and the expected outcome, I'm confused. The Twins have been leading the ALC in money spent. If money is such a great predictor, where are those ALC crowns the last two years. I agree that teams paying above $200M for 26 person payroll have a higher correlation to winning over time, but it takes talent and good management to win.

I wish someone would put out a list of bats and arms that can be realistically signed as a proposal. Until such time the Twins must gather all information possible to complete some trades. The results should have the potential to vastly improve the club's fortunes. The next year or two are bound to be rough but with the right combination of players the team could at least be interesting.

[David Maro]

It will be a minor league team in Major League uniforms in 26 because of the lock out in 27. You for sure see Ryan gone wearing a California team uniform probably the Giants. You can't have a unhappy player in the dugout,just ask Sony Gray. The BP will be full of arms from St Paul that will want to be SP waiting for one or more SP to fail or get injured.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, David Maro said:

It will be a minor league team in Major League uniforms in 26 because of the lock out in 27. You for sure see Ryan gone wearing a California team uniform probably the Giants. You can't have a unhappy player in the dugout,just ask Sony Gray. The BP will be full of arms from St Paul that will want to be SP waiting for one or more SP to fail or get injured.

The Twins could lose 90 games again, but they could be a fun team to watch. That depends on the moves made this offseason. They will be a major league team though. There is quite a difference.

I do not expect a significant lockout in 2027. Worst case, MLB loses April. The sides will come to an agreement.

Depending on the trades made this winter, the Twins could be pretty good in 2027.

[DJL44]

MLB trade rumors used their pretty accurate arbitration model to predict these numbers 

 

• Genesis Cabrera (5.149): $1.4MM
• Ryan Jeffers (5.089): $6.6MM
• Justin Topa (5.044): $1.7MM (Twins hold a $2MM club option with a $225K buyout)
• Michael Tonkin (5.044): $1.4MM
• Bailey Ober (4.093): $4.6MM
• Joe Ryan (4.033): $5.8MM
• Trevor Larnach (4.014): $4.7MM
• Royce Lewis (3.142): $3MM
• Anthony Misiewicz (3.082): $1.1MM
• Cole Sands (3.017): $1.3MM

That saves about $7M compared to the guess above. It also shows that there is no reason to trade Joe Ryan to clear salary. 

[DJL44]

Other interesting arbitration predictions 

Ben Rortvedt $1.3M

Ryan Mountcastle $7.8M

Adley Rutschman $6.8M

Joey Bart $2.7M

Jhoan Duran $7.6M

Griffin Jax $3.6M

Triston Casas $1.7M

Nathaniel Lowe $13.5M

Mauricio Dubon $5.8M

 

[yeahyabetcha]

12 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

It's quite the world you've constructed here, a land of sunshine and lollipops where the only thing that matters is competency, but unfortunately it's just a fantasy.  The Mets made the NLCS is 2024. They made the World Series in 2015.  They have unquestionably been more successful over the past 3 decades than the Twins.  Since the last Twins series exactly 1 team in the bottom 1/3 of payroll has won a World Series.  Payroll matters.  It's not the only thing that matters.  But to pretend it doesn't matter is delusional. 

Development and advancement of minor league talent should be the Twins focus.  Sure, spending money when prudent is also needed, but spending money for the sake of spending money is not a good strategy.  It is ok if the payroll is 100 million one year as long as a 150 million year goes with it.

[tony&rodney]

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That saves about $7M compared to the guess above. It also shows that there is no reason to trade Joe Ryan to clear salary. 

Ryan is a fun pitcher to watch. My guess is most fans want Ryan to return next year. Me too.

The money is not important with Ryan. The Twins lack talent though, needing improvement/help everywhere but wherever Byron Buxton plays. Perhaps I'm mistaken but I see all conversation surrounding trades as finding paths to balance the roster. A slow, defensively challenged team that also struggles to hit needs changes to occur. We have seen what happens with the current roster in August and September. I believe the Twins need to consider everything.

The challenge is to find a team needing one of our corner outfielders or other guys. What is the return? Gamble trades are worth  the chance. Not every trade will work but several should occur. We should expect the bar to be high for Ryan. Can management pull off solid trades? I sure hope so, and if the Twins can retain Ryan and Lopez ..... even better. Still, I'm looking for about four trades.

The post is about payroll. I see it below $90M if nothing changes but I could easily see a $110M roster. That is about $22M above the current list.

[KirbyDome89]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Except for Keaschall, they held all of the really talented guys in AAA. The rookies they brought up to end the season were actually pretty old guys getting one last audition (Gasper, Fitzgerald, Outman, Keirsey, McCusker).

So they've just been playing opossum the last few years? Guys like Lee, Lewis, ect weren't supposed to be more productive?

[KirbyDome89]

8 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The White Sox started their rebuild at the deadline in 2023, a full 24 months before the Twins started theirs.  Of course the White Sox are further along in getting their young talent to the majors.  The Sox also sent out their top assets, most notably Giolito and Crochet--the Twins have not (at least not yet) moved on from their best asset.

The Sox are a rudderless org and nowhere close to being a considered a talented team. You aren't full of talent and getting outperformed by that team.  

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The Sox are a rudderless org and nowhere close to being a considered a talented team. You aren't full of talent and getting outperformed by that team.  

The White Sox have a bunch of young players trying to stay in the bigs and set themselves up for future contracts, playing with no expectations and nothing to lose.  The Twins had a bunch of veterans heavily disillusioned by what happened--that has an effect.  I think you're also underselling some of their talent--Montgomery, Teel, Baldwin, and Vargas all had nice hitting stats in the 2 months after the ASG; by wRC+ they were all top 100 hitters in MLB for that timeframe.  Is it also safe to assume you're not looking at schedules and pitchers for those 2 months--did the Sox get to play worse teams, and play against worse pitchers?  If you can't say for sure, then how do you know that perhaps the Sox' better record had more to do with an easier schedule than the Twins?

[Doctor Gast]

The most important focus point is having the most competitive team with what we have to spend. Following the NY model of going after expensive big slugging & high-velo FAs is foolhardy. But that is what Twins & Twins' fans dream is at. Go sign another expensive Donaldson, Gallo, Vazquez or pick up another salary dump like DeSclavani, & Margot.Twins say they'll focus on development. What a novel idea! Why hasn't anyone thought of that before? Instead of muddling through analytically weird philosophies, where player evaluation & fundamental development were ignored. I hope they do find quality development people. 

I hope they keep Lopez, Ryan & Jeffers. I'm not sure that Ryan wants to stay. This is Jeffers last year, they normally trade these guys. It makes total sense since he is a Boras agent. But Falvey short-sightedness he has done nothing to shore up any depth. 

[old nurse]

19 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The Mets were in the NLCS last season. They were a wild card team in 2022. Yes, spending doesn't guarantee winning, and it's not always going to be the top 6 payrolls in each league making the playoffs. But it isn't hard to find the multitude of studies showing that payroll and winning in Major League Baseball are correlated. Pointing to 3 outliers and saying it's "mystifying" is pretty wild. The highest spending teams in baseball win more than the lower spending teams. It's been this way for a long time. 

I think you should do some research on the overall correlation between payroll and record before calling anything "outright stupid." I'll help out with this handy little chart to start. Yes, there's a handful of overachievers and the Angels being way off, but otherwise it's a pretty clear correlation. Payroll matters.

Consider that a 4 year window is only but a glimpse at what a team does. Adjust your window by a couple of years and you have a little different results