Pitchers Are Asking Luke Keaschall New Questions. Will He Have the Answers?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Say this for Luke Keaschall: the man knows how to set a high floor for his hitting profile. He has hits in 13 of his 14 games in September, even as the league adapts and adjusts to him. He's batting over .300 for the month. However, he's also only walked three times and hit two doubles this month; his slugging average is south of .350. 

Is Keaschall proving himself slump-proof, or is this just what a slump looks like for him? That question isn't answerable in the sample of playing time he's accrued this year, or that he will accrue before the season is over. It'll have to wait until next year, and perhaps well into that campaign, at that. There's little doubt that Keaschall has an elite raw hit tool, at this point. The league is forcing him to adjust and cover a bigger strike zone, though, and whether he can counteradjust will determine just how valuable he is going forward.

As we've discussed before, Keaschall loves to hit the high pitch, despite the steep plane of his swing. He almost cuts off the lower rail of the zone, preferring to gamble on not having strikes called down there than to risk chasing a pitch he can't handle with his extremely compact stroke.

As a result of this, Keaschall does nearly all his damage in the upper, inner quadrant of the strike zone. His most famous hit to date, the walkoff home run he drove to right-center against the Royals in mid-August, was on a pitch up and away, but most of the time, he's only going to really hurt you if the ball is near the middle of the zone, and a bit in from there. Even most of his well-struck singles come in that part of the zone. Because he takes a bunch of called strikes along the bottom edge and doesn't get the barrel to the ball if it's down and away, that lower, outer quadrant is where you're most likely to get him out. This chart shows his run value per 100 pitches by location.

The league has this data, too. Heck, they had it while Keaschall was still in the minors. Thus, pitchers started hammering him away, away, away, practically the moment he came up. If we come as close as we can to splitting his rookie season exactly in half, to date, the dividing line comes August 22. Here's where Keaschall saw the most pitches through that date.

Away, away, away. Preferably, down and away. Pitchers had the book and they tried to make him prove he could hit that pitch. He still can't, really.

However, during that span, Keaschall had a .400 weighted on-base average (wOBA, a holistic offensive stat that scales neatly to on-base percentage; .400 is excellent). His average exit velocity was 87.9 miles per hour, and he only struck out 11.1% of the time.

As it turns out, if you spend all your time trying to attack one side of the plate—especially to a hitter who, while he might not have a swing versatile enough to produce hard contact foul line-to-foul line or throughout the zone, does have a strong ability to spoil pitches and the speed to turn a squibber into an infield hit—you're going to end up making mistakes. The ball will wander into the middle of the plate too much, where it gets hit hard. The hitter, even if he's a rookie with a fairly stubborn philosophy, can start to cheat toward that pitch and cover it better than he ordinarily would. Keaschall foiled the basic plan of going after the so-called hole in his swing right away.

Here's how pitchers have responded, since August 23.

Wait! Don't do it! You're in danger! Except, no, they largely haven't been. Keaschall's wOBA is down to .338 during this stretch. His strikeout rate is 15.2%, and even when he puts it in play, his average exit velocity is down to a very unthreatening 84.3 miles per hour. Teasing that outside edge has worked, to some extent, because Keaschall's chase rate is up from 20% in the first half of his young career to 25% in this second half of it. Mostly, though, the league is making him cover the whole plate, and he's having a very hard time with that. More pitches on the inner third means being ready to pull the hands in or tilt downhill even more than usual, but to do that, Keaschall has to give up more capacity for covering the outer third. For many pitchers, feeling emboldened to go after him inside also means fewer mistakes over the middle.

Again, so far, Keaschall has only consistently proved that he can punish meatballs in the middle of the zone—and, specifically, hanging stuff in the upper 80s. He doesn't hit even average fastballs for power, and if a pitch finds its target, he usually fights it off, rather than truly attacking it. That's not an indictment, per se. There are 'mistake' hitters in the Hall of Fame, and Keaschall's great blend of contact skill and speed allows him some margin for error. 

If he wants to be a truly productive hitter, though—a legitimate top-third hitter in a winning lineup, rather than a nice but empty batting average—it's time to see what Keaschall's next phase looks like. How he tweaks his swing and/or his approach to put the barrel on the ball more often or produce more bat speed while covering the whole zone will shape his career, and the final 10 games of 2025 will give us a glimpse of that.

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[Patzky]

Gil went away away away a lot to Luke last night. While he still provides production (RBI and contact) it's good to see that my impression of him fading is accurate. 

So many young batters have faltered, here's hoping he explores fixes each time pitchers adjust. 

[mikelink45]

I hope and expect that he will adjust in the off-season and continue to produce.  I think we have a start if he does not have the Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Miranda regression for year two.

[jmlease1]

Keaschall started off so hot that it was inevitable that the league would catch up to him at least somewhat. I do think this article has nailed it: how does Keaschall adjust to the adjustment, and can he do that without losing some of the things that have made him special so far.

Avoiding a significant sophomore slump, which neither Julien or Miranda did, would be huge for the Twins. The Julien comp only works on a positional and "hot rookie season/sophomore slump" angle, because as hitters the approach is very different. With the kind of aggression and plate coverage we've seen, Miranda is a better comp, but Keaschall still draws a lot more walks than Miranda ever did; the only way for Jose to get up near a .400 OBP was to hit .340. (I've also wondered if Miranda's true downfall is related to injury; he's simply not been the same hitter since missing time in July of 2024; Keaschall's success post significant injury feels like a positive sign for him)

It's a really good analysis. You have to think that surrounding him with better/more consistent hitting would help too, giving him some protection. I'd like to see him hitting leadoff or 2nd in the order next season.

The other thing to look for is improvement vs LHP. He's struggled like so many LH hitters. I'd say he's got the skill set to make himself into a harder out that's able to hold his own better than many LH sluggers, but going to competent from truly dreadful would make a difference for him too. It's a small sample for sure, but he's absolutely sucked against LHP.

[LeatherAntenna]

27 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I hope and expect that he will adjust in the off-season and continue to produce.  I think we have a start if he does not have the Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Miranda regression for year two.

Shouldn’t the law of averages suggest this time we have a solid hitter, both now and in the future?  Julien and Miranda not withstanding, Lewis may yet arrive as an elite hitter, though the clock is ticking on him.

[Obie]

28 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

The other thing to look for is improvement vs LHP. He's struggled like so many LH hitters. I'd say he's got the skill set to make himself into a harder out that's able to hold his own better than many LH sluggers, but going to competent from truly dreadful would make a difference for him too. It's a small sample for sure, but he's absolutely sucked against LHP.

Yes, his early stats against lefties are bad, but it is not because he is a left handed hitter. He is a right handed batter.

[Patzky]

1 minute ago, Obie said:

Yes, his early stats against lefties are bad, but it is not because he is a left handed hitter. He is a right handed batter.

If Larnach and Wallner learned a little about hitting lefties, Luke can learn a little more.

[LambchoP]

I think Keaschal is the real deal. Even with the book getting out on him, even while he's "slumping" he's still getting on base, getting hits and driving in runs. Not every player has to hit 30 home runs. If Luke can hit .280 or better, steal bases and play good d at second, the Twins should be elated. If Martin keeps hitting as well I'd love a top of the lineup of Martin, Keaschal, Buxton....

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Obie said:

Yes, his early stats against lefties are bad, but it is not because he is a left handed hitter. He is a right handed batter.

need more caffeine today. you are correct, of course.

boy those splits are rough, though.

[nicksaviking]

Can Keaschall adjust is one question, do the Twins as an organization have the personnel and structure to help him adjust is another.

We've seen this over and over and over again. I'm hopeful Keaschall breaks the loop, but young players don't understand and figure out adjustments all by themselves. 

[Parfigliano]

43 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

need more caffeine today. you are correct, of course.

boy those splits are rough, though.

Small sample size against RHP and smaller against LHP.

[Whitey333]

Way over done.  IMO this new analytics on every conceivable pitch, hit, etc is way over done.  If for example, if the great analytics department and our field manager Mr. Baldelli were so good with the analytics shouldn't we have been in first place?  Oh that's true maybe the players just aren't that good.  Where's the analytics for that?  For the people the drafted them, trained them, and managed them what analytics measurements are used for them?  This new era of baseball is bringing the sport down.

[Permanent Twins Fan]

Luke Keaschall hasn't been great over the last couple weeks but he hasn't been terrible. He's still getting on base and he's still scoring runs. If this is his version of a slump, than we should be satisfied. We can only hope that he doesn't have a sophomore slump like so many other Twins have had.

[twinstalker]

19 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I think we have a start(er) if he does not have the Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Miranda regression for year two.

Why would you lump Keaschall with the other three?  He's nothing like them.  It's all there in the minor league stats.  In all my years studying prospects, I've found almost nobody who's defied their minor league stats (barring injury, cheating, etc).  The issue is with us understanding what the stats say.

Everyone can have a down period, but most Twins hitting "prospects" are terribly flawed and their struggles are indicative of who they are.  Keaschall and Jenkins (to a greater degree) are consistently great at young ages in the minors, and I'm not merely talking about their slash lines.  Their slash lines are great, but so were Julien's, Miranda's, and Lewis'.

It's more about their weaknesses and magnitude of their weaknesses.  If a minor leaguer has an issue, MLB pitchers will find it.  Without fail.  What you see from Lewis and Julien is the pitchers figuring out their weaknesses.  Lewis is enough of an athlete (inc hand/eye) to possibly overcome his issues to an extent.  Julien's problems are much worse, and in a few years he might figure out how to stick somewhere and be mediocre.  Miranda was really mediocre at the more projectable levels, then broke out one year in the bandboxes of Twins AA and AAA.  It was too big a breakout to dismiss that he had found something, but whatever he found he either lost or the pitchers discovered how to get his new self out.  Again, at the Twins most projectable levels, Miranda didn't show anything.

Keaschall's issues are minor in comparison to any of these guys.  Jenkins' are even less.  As far as I'm concerned the Twins only have two other hitters in the system with a chance, but:

As I've said before, Culpepper and G. Gonzalez are two of the tougher hitters to figure out.  Culpepper apparently struggles quite a bit with breaking balls, which will kill him.  His strikeout rate is decent, but it's risen considerably throughout his AA. 

June/July 15.4% in 123 PA

Aug/Sept 21.1% in 147 PA

One of those, for his profile, projects MLB success, the other projects mediocrity, but right now both have sample size and other issues to keep conclusions murky.

Gonzalez lacks athleticism, is poor defensively, has only modest power, and struggles with patience at times (his walk rate is complicated).  Given all that, he's had a remarkable age 21 season, tempered by the easy hitting parks in the upper minors.  He reminds of Miranda in some ways but showed hitting prowess at age 19.  K rate is really good (but that was tru for Miranda also, who swung at everything and had great contact rates).  Again, lots of mixed signals.  Really, though, the biggest knock I have against Gonzalez is that he's only hit in big time hitters parks (A, AA, AAA), or, in the case of more pitching friendly A+, didn't hit until his third try at the level.  My informal study of parks has me believing that parks not only affect slash lines but also K rates, so I often ignore these lines in the stats.  In fact, for Colorado hitting prospects, I only look at AA Hartford to determine my projections.

Gonzalez and Culpepper could easily get off to good MLB starts.  It happens frequently with hitters who probably have very little chance of actually being good at the highest level.  So these guys could fit into the Lewis, Julien, Miranda category.  But right now I can't say whether they're going to struggle for long periods (or forever) like the others.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, twinstalker said:

Why would you lump Keaschall with the other three?  He's nothing like them.  It's all there in the minor league stats.  In all my years studying prospects, I've found almost nobody who's defied their minor league stats (barring injury, cheating, etc).  The issue is with us understanding what the stats say.

Everyone can have a down period, but most Twins hitting "prospects" are terribly flawed and their struggles are indicative of who they are.  Keaschall and Jenkins (to a greater degree) are consistently great at young ages in the minors, and I'm not merely talking about their slash lines.  Their slash lines are great, but so were Julien's, Miranda's, and Lewis'.

It's more about their weaknesses and magnitude of their weaknesses.  If a minor leaguer has an issue, MLB pitchers will find it.  Without fail.  What you see from Lewis and Julien is the pitchers figuring out their weaknesses.  Lewis is enough of an athlete (inc hand/eye) to possibly overcome his issues to an extent.  Julien's problems are much worse, and in a few years he might figure out how to stick somewhere and be mediocre.  Miranda was really mediocre at the more projectable levels, then broke out one year in the bandboxes of Twins AA and AAA.  It was too big a breakout to dismiss that he had found something, but whatever he found he either lost or the pitchers discovered how to get his new self out.  Again, at the Twins most projectable levels, Miranda didn't show anything.

Keaschall's issues are minor in comparison to any of these guys.  Jenkins' are even less.  As far as I'm concerned the Twins only have two other hitters in the system with a chance, but:

As I've said before, Culpepper and G. Gonzalez are two of the tougher hitters to figure out.  Culpepper apparently struggles quite a bit with breaking balls, which will kill him.  His strikeout rate is decent, but it's risen considerably throughout his AA. 

June/July 15.4% in 123 PA

Aug/Sept 21.1% in 147 PA

One of those, for his profile, projects MLB success, the other projects mediocrity, but right now both have sample size and other issues to keep conclusions murky.

Gonzalez lacks athleticism, is poor defensively, has only modest power, and struggles with patience at times (his walk rate is complicated).  Given all that, he's had a remarkable age 21 season, tempered by the easy hitting parks in the upper minors.  He reminds of Miranda in some ways but showed hitting prowess at age 19.  K rate is really good (but that was tru for Miranda also, who swung at everything and had great contact rates).  Again, lots of mixed signals.  Really, though, the biggest knock I have against Gonzalez is that he's only hit in big time hitters parks (A, AA, AAA), or, in the case of more pitching friendly A+, didn't hit until his third try at the level.  My informal study of parks has me believing that parks not only affect slash lines but also K rates, so I often ignore these lines in the stats.  In fact, for Colorado hitting prospects, I only look at AA Hartford to determine my projections.

Gonzalez and Culpepper could easily get off to good MLB starts.  It happens frequently with hitters who probably have very little chance of actually being good at the highest level.  So these guys could fit into the Lewis, Julien, Miranda category.  But right now I can't say whether they're going to struggle for long periods (or forever) like the others.

When Julien came up he was expected to be the answer to the missing Arraez - an on base machine.  But he seems to have lost it completely and I hope he is not expected to be the 1B next year.  Did they tinker with him too much or did the pitchers figure him out.  I tend to think they were concerned with getting more power.

Miranda rose quickly and spectacularly only to have his balloon bust.  I am sorry he did not pan out, but not sure the reasons -  injury or just a quick peak year with nothing left.

Lewis looked like Keaschall to begin - Mr Grand Slam.  Enthusiasm, excitement.  he it the one I most compare with Keaschall.  The number one draft choice - ranked on national prospect lists.  Great expectations, a crash, injuries, a slump (which he claimed he never got) and we are hoping his bat is coming alive and he might be a good - not great IF for the future.

Right now Keaschall is doing great, looking great, everything seems to be in place for a star players (I do not like ranking anyone as a Superstar).  But then TD writes an article about his weaknesses.  Every team has that same perspective so I think he can do better than the other three - I have no assurance that will be the case.  

We once were excited by Arcia, Rosario, Sano, Kepler and none of them reached the limits that the first years promised - some bombed right away - Arcia, some lingered until there was no hope - Sano, Rosario was a little bit of a cult hero who had a great run in the Atlanta WS but otherwise was replacement levell and Kepler always seemed on the verge of something really good, but actually had only one really good year and a lot of average years. His 220/17/51 line this year defines his career.

Go Luke - baseball is hard.

[Trov]

This is how the game always goes for players.  Hitters come up and if they crush right off the bat pitchers start to try something new.  Then the hitter needs to adjust to them, and so on it goes.  We have seen it with a lot of hitters in their rookie years crush, only to struggle the second year, it is because pitchers and scouts had all winter to figure out how to pitch to them.  Lets hope he makes the adjustments. 

[Otaknam]

Power is overrated. If Keaschall hits and gets on base at a high percentage, that’s an asset the team can use, He can also steal a base if Baldelli still allows that. If he be a solid defender, what’s not to like?

[Linus]

I know is not a hot take but TK had it right. You don’t know what you have in a hitter (good or bad) until they have 1000-1500 at bats. So until then nobody knows what Keaschall will be. 

[stringer bell]

I think Keaschall is establishing a pretty high floor for his career. It seems to me that he'll get his hits, make contact and be a positive on the bases. Developing plus power without diminishing OBP will be the challenge.

No matter what happens in the last ten games, he's had a nice start with the hope of more and better in the future.