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Posted

Of course, a lot depends on where the FO goes with Laranch, Lopez and Ryan this off season.

My best guess is.

SWR is #4/5 starter with Bradley being the other # 4/5.

Miranda 😞 seems like he's cooked.

Clemens/Julien 1 will be back if Laranch is moved. I'd say Clemens.

Outman is Kersey with more power so outside chance (40/60%) he's back till someone now in AAA gets him DFA'd

I could also see all the no's getting minor league contract offers to stay in the org. I don't think there many to protect from the Rule 5 draft so more could stick (on the 40 man) around then we think.

Posted
3 hours ago, weitz41 said:

Of course, a lot depends on where the FO goes with Laranch, Lopez and Ryan this off season.

My best guess is.

SWR is #4/5 starter with Bradley being the other # 4/5.

Miranda 😞 seems like he's cooked.

Clemens/Julien 1 will be back if Laranch is moved. I'd say Clemens.

Outman is Kersey with more power so outside chance (40/60%) he's back till someone now in AAA gets him DFA'd

I could also see all the no's getting minor league contract offers to stay in the org. I don't think there many to protect from the Rule 5 draft so more could stick (on the 40 man) around then we think.

You are probably correct, especially about the so called AAAA types. The Twins treat most players like they are their sons and get a lot of chances.

Posted

As with SWR, I can see him playing the 2026 role of Jorge Alcala.  A pitcher who needs to make the roster because they have nowhere else to go.  I can see SWR starting the season in the rotation while others like Abel and Bradley are building up in St. Paul.  The dream would be that all three are doing very well and SWR can somewhat rehabilitate his numbers so they could potentially trade him during the 2026 season.

Of the position players, I would rank them in order:  Clemens, Julien, Outman, and Miranda.  Miranda and Outman should be removed from the 40-man roster in the offseason with the expected return of Roden for next spring.  I can see them holding onto one of Clemens or Julien depending on how many roster spots they need in the offseason as there are always upcoming prospects that need to be protected by the 40-man.  It would be nice to see if one or both Clemens and Julien would be released and resign them as a spring training invite, similar to Ty France's contract, which was not guaranteed unless he made the team.

Posted

If we want a better team in 2026 all five are replaced with better players.  SWR is the only one worth considering, but let's hope for better from him and Zebby.  None of our young pitchers have looked so good that we could not replace them.  Who knows what will be Festa's future?  Who knows if Ober is cooked or just needs a reset? Who knows if Abel and Bradley can turn the corner.  So at this point all arms need to be kept and the competition needs to be strong.  Let's hope Lopez and Ryan can lead them.

The others are the kind of players that are fillers on bad teams (I know - that's what we are) but hopefully we will seek better and be better. (I HOPE YOU ARE READING THIS MR FALVEY AND MR POHLAD).

Posted
5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

As for the OP, SWR is a no-brainer. Hed make the opening day rotation ahead of any of the younger options. 

Just a reminder that SWR is younger than both Festa and Matthews. He didn't go the college baseball route and has been in professional baseball much longer, but he's still only 24 years old. 

Posted
2 hours ago, Western SD Fan said:

Of the position players, I would rank them in order:  Clemens, Julien, Outman, and Miranda.  Miranda and Outman should be removed from the 40-man roster in the offseason with the expected return of Roden for next spring.  I can see them holding onto one of Clemens or Julien depending on how many roster spots they need in the offseason as there are always upcoming prospects that need to be protected by the 40-man.  It would be nice to see if one or both Clemens and Julien would be released and resign them as a spring training invite, similar to Ty France's contract, which was not guaranteed unless he made the team.

Julien should be removed to a different team.

Miranda, sad story but like Julien, lack of talent is hard to over come.

Posted

I’m not sure this is the most helpful way to think of it. Rather, it’s a process. 
 

1. Current 40-man has 39 players. 
2. Add in guys on the 60-day IL. Turns out the only ones are Roden and Vazquez, who are already counted in that 39. 
3. Subtract free agents. That’s Vazquez and Cabrera. Now we’re at 37. 
4. Consider the guys who have to be added to the 40-man or risk losing in the Rule 5 draft. For purpose of this exercise, let’s say there are eight, giving us 45 to consider. 

Then you note the guys with guaranteed contracts. That’s Buxton and Lopez. 

At that point there’s a ranking of everyone else from 3 to 45 and you weigh them against the following criteria:

1. Are we picking up Topa’s option?

2. Are we tendering offers to the arbitration-eligible players? Larnach, Clemens, Lewis, Jeffers, Misiewicz, Sands, Tonkin, Ryan and Ober.

3. What are the chances of someone getting picked up in the Rule 5?

4. Do they have options left? 

5. Positional fit?

6. Likelihood of future contribution. 

For purposes of this argument, let’s say we are keeping eight of the guys in Nos. 1 and 2 and there are five you consider likely to get picked in the Rule 5, so you need to add them. Effectively these are Nos. 3 through 15 and everybody else is 16 through 45, so you have to drop five of them.

If you dropped two from group 1 and 2, your total list is down to 43, so you have to drop three more.

That’s a long way of saying that the question is where do these guys rank within the 16-43. I’m going to assume that there are a couple of the Rule 5 eligible guys at the bottom, but it’s hard for me to think that Miranda isn’t among the bottom three. If it’s him and two of the minor leaguers, that’s your current 40-man roster. You don’t HAVE to drop anyone else at this point, unless you want to be kind and give them more opportunity to sign elsewhere. 

After you do that, you’ll constantly be weighing whether an available free agent (including other teams’ non-tenders) and trade acquisition is better than your current No. 40, dropping that guy and adding the new guy to your ranking.

For me, it’s a pretty low bar to add people at the bottom of the list and knock someone off. I’ve already named what I think of Miranda, but of the others, I consider Julien the most vulnerable to be dropped first, followed by Outman, I think SWR is high enough on the list that he doesn’t need to be worried. I would guess that some of the other minor leaguers are joining a Julien as vulnerable. 

I could see Clemens being one of the two from groups 1 and 2 that didn’t get tendered, but the question/timing is different on him than it is on the other four. 

I think there additional rule nuances on the decision-making process, but that’s the general process as I understand it. 

 

Posted
2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I’m not sure this is the most helpful way to think of it. Rather, it’s a process. 
 

1. Current 40-man has 39 players. 
2. Add in guys on the 60-day IL. Turns out the only ones are Roden and Vazquez, who are already counted in that 39. 
3. Subtract free agents. That’s Vazquez and Cabrera. Now we’re at 37. 
4. Consider the guys who have to be added to the 40-man or risk losing in the Rule 5 draft. For purpose of this exercise, let’s say there are eight, giving us 45 to consider. 

Then you note the guys with guaranteed contracts. That’s Buxton and Lopez. 

At that point there’s a ranking of everyone else from 3 to 45 and you weigh them against the following criteria:

1. Are we picking up Topa’s option?

2. Are we tendering offers to the arbitration-eligible players? Larnach, Clemens, Lewis, Jeffers, Misiewicz, Sands, Tonkin, Ryan and Ober.

3. What are the chances of someone getting picked up in the Rule 5?

4. Do they have options left? 

5. Positional fit?

6. Likelihood of future contribution. 

For purposes of this argument, let’s say we are keeping eight of the guys in Nos. 1 and 2 and there are five you consider likely to get picked in the Rule 5, so you need to add them. Effectively these are Nos. 3 through 15 and everybody else is 16 through 45, so you have to drop five of them.

If you dropped two from group 1 and 2, your total list is down to 43, so you have to drop three more.

That’s a long way of saying that the question is where do these guys rank within the 16-43. I’m going to assume that there are a couple of the Rule 5 eligible guys at the bottom, but it’s hard for me to think that Miranda isn’t among the bottom three. If it’s him and two of the minor leaguers, that’s your current 40-man roster. You don’t HAVE to drop anyone else at this point, unless you want to be kind and give them more opportunity to sign elsewhere. 

After you do that, you’ll constantly be weighing whether an available free agent (including other teams’ non-tenders) and trade acquisition is better than your current No. 40, dropping that guy and adding the new guy to your ranking.

For me, it’s a pretty low bar to add people at the bottom of the list and knock someone off. I’ve already named what I think of Miranda, but of the others, I consider Julien the most vulnerable to be dropped first, followed by Outman, I think SWR is high enough on the list that he doesn’t need to be worried. I would guess that some of the other minor leaguers are joining a Julien as vulnerable. 

I could see Clemens being one of the two from groups 1 and 2 that didn’t get tendered, but the question/timing is different on him than it is on the other four. 

I think there additional rule nuances on the decision-making process, but that’s the general process as I understand it. 

 

Where you are pointing... is the exactly where we should all be looking. It's the next big thing in the path toward straightening things out. 

Before they sign Kyle Tucker to that free agent deal. This is first on the honey-do list. 

Posted
23 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Where you are pointing... is the exactly where we should all be looking. It's the next big thing in the path toward straightening things out. 

Before they sign Kyle Tucker to that free agent deal. This is first on the honey-do list. 

Hopefully they don’t have to give him the extra year or two so they have enough left in case Pete Alonso opts out. 

Posted
5 hours ago, Reptevia said:

Release them all. Sign SWR and maybe Clemons to minor league deals. 

100 times out of 100 another team signs SWR. 

How is he even a discussion? Unreal 

The other four? I hope they are gone. Clemens is thirty, and not good. Move on. 

Posted

Wow that was a fantastic at bat for Clemens in the 9th! How many balls with 3-2 count did he need to foul off until getting one he could attack?

Over his career he has positive OAA at 1B, 2B, LF and RF. He also plays 3B adequately enough. He has dominated multiple games this year. I hope all of these players playing for their careers show up this month.

Posted
On 9/12/2025 at 10:29 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

If they don't want to write in pen that SWR will be in the rotation to start the year, AND they don't think he will convert to a good bullpen option, I can VERY much see him being moved to a team for a player with similar control who could possibly be a catcher or 1B option. 

If Topa’s stuff and Adam’s stuff are considered “reasonable” for the bullpen going forward, how can they not think SWR isn’t able to throw to 3-7 batters per outing?

He’s only going to be 24 & he has 4 years of control left ………. how is he potentially a decent 5th starter but not good enough to throw out of the PEN?

I don’t know he isn’t the 5th guy in rotation that then rolls into the PEN if someone else becomes a better option.

Posted
23 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I have no idea how high SWR's ceiling is at but he has established himself as a SP, that doesn't mean that every outing will be great. He'll go through times of adjusting, all pitchers do but he'll adjust to every situation & cement himself to the rotation more so than Matthew or Festa. 

In house- Julien's defense has always been a liability. Only Correa & Santana covering for him, could somehow make him look passable to some, But after Correa & Santana left, they could no longer deceive even Julien's staunchest supporter. After the league had the book on Julien, him adjusted his hitting, & even him learning 1B at the MLB level (because they refuse to surrender hope that he could play 2B while at AAA), he doesn't have any justified hope to make the 40 man.

Once a promising young pure hitter, Miranda is broken due to mismanagement. IDK if he can ever be fixed (at least with the Twins, what a shame). Keirsey has been mismanaged & doubt he'll ever get a chance (again a shame). 

Out house- I like Clemens, but IDK how much he can maintain to become a contributing asset, but I'm willing to give him a chance to be at least a bench player. Right now, he's our best 1Bman. Outman, I don't care how many HRs he hits in low-leverage situations; his SOs are inexcusable. Twins need to flip him as soon as possible while he's worth something (I know, Falvey will never do that but they should)

To me, Julien’s defense isn’t even part of the conversation……….ha has nearly zero power after hitting 17 HR’s in part of a first full season……..he can’t hit .200!!! He has no business on the roster. Miranda is obviously gone.

Clemons may get tested next week as he hit 3HR’s & a double last night. He’s a fallback, 13th guy on roster do to his defensive flexibility in ‘26 - doubtful. …….. SWR has to stick, somewhere/somehow.

Posted

The easy ones are Julien and Mirnada.  They have no value in a trade any longer and should have no value to the Twins.

I've got the benefit of seeing Clemens go 4-4 with 3 HR's.  But...He had 16 HR before last night's explosion and he's clearly a better defender at 2B & 1B than Julien.  Before last night, I viewed him as part of the bench for 2026 with "some" defensive versatility.  To me, he's worth keeping and tendering to see if the power still plays next year.  It might not.  If it doesn't, you simply DFA him.

Outman is similar to Keirsey with more power.  Neither one of them is a major league player.  I realize some people think Kiersey wasn't given a good enough chance.  I sure wanted him to work out.  But he can't hit major league pitching.  

That leaves SWR.  He has to be tendered because I believe he can be used in a trade to acquire a young catcher.  I'm not really interested in seeing SWR remain on the Twins as a SP, but some of that depends on what happens with Ryan, Pablo and Ober.  I think SWR could be a decent long reliever, but I'd rather put together a deal with the White Sox where I offer Wallner and SWR for one of their young catchers (Teel or Edgar Quero) and maybe a White Sox bullpen arm.  

SWR still has VALUE. (he's a young pitcher with potential). Wallner still has VALUE. (he's got prodigious POWER).  Use that value with the White Sox to add a young MLB catcher NOW so that the Tait timeline isn't sped up.  Eventually, the Twins will end up with 2 good catchers who have C/1B/DH capabilities.  A massive organizational weakness would be the best catching situation in years.  

With the young OF's we have coming on the fast track, I'm willing to give up BOTH SWR and Wallner to get Teel or Edgar Quero.  The Sox would still have to throw in something of value to even things up, but you finally get someone to pair with Jeffers for a season before you move on from Jeffers.

Doc Gast, suggest a trade with the White Sox that moves SWR and Wallner to get Teel/Quero and whatever that something else would be from the CWS.   

Posted
On 9/12/2025 at 10:16 AM, Vanimal46 said:

Julien and Miranda are easy non-tenders. Good luck to them. 

Clemens and Outman I think will be kept as AAAA depth. 

SWR is gonna be on the MLB team in some capacity in 2026. 

Agreed, all of the hitters will be waived and likely unclaimed.

Posted

For clarity, Julien, Outman and Woods Richardson are pre-arbitration and the decision is whether to keep them on the 40-man roster or be designated for assignment (DFA). Clemens looks like he will be eligible as a Super-2 for arbitration and Miranda will be as well despite spending the majority of his season in St. Paul. The decision for those two guys is whether to tender them a contract.

Assuming the Twins don't break the bank for replacements for the players they traded away, Clemens should be brought back for a reasonable arbitration number. Woods Richardson is also a pretty easy decision. 

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