Bridging the Gap: How the Twins Offense Can Survive Until Returning to Full Strength

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins have won eight games in a row, and most impressively they've been able to do it without Matt Wallner and Luke Keaschall, who looked like their two best hitters before going down with injuries. Wallner had an .847 OPS before suffering a significant hamstring strain on April 15th. Keaschall went 7-for-19 with five steals in seven games up until a wayward fastball fractured his forearm.

Before they went down, Wallner was routinely leading off and Keaschall had found his way into the No. 3 spot, reflecting the magnitude of these losses in the lineup. Neither is going to be back anytime soon; Wallner is still weeks away and Keaschall probably won't return until around the All-Star break. 

The good news is that these two crucial reinforcements could set up the Twins offense, which has started to click somewhat in their absence, for a big second half. If the pitching staff continues the way it has, that's a recipe for a lot of winning and maybe a sprint to the top of the division. But in order for this to be in the cards down the line, Minnesota first needs to hang in the race. They need to their offense to keep holding up its end of the bargain.

That doesn't mean they need the lineup to dominate. They haven't, and they probably aren't going to. Even over the course of this eight-game winning streak the Twins have scored more than five runs only twice, and their team .312 wOBA ranks right in middle of the MLB pack, at 15th. 

Supported by a staff that has allowed the fifth-fewest runs in baseball, the offense can get by with being merely solid. But they were far from that in the first month as the Twins dug this whole they're now trying to escape. In order to keep making progress toward that end in the weeks ahead, from my view, they need four players to build upon the success that has helped fuel Minnesota's turnaround.

But first, I'm going to start by naming a few players I am NOT expecting to lead this charge. Because a couple of them may surprise.

I'm not counting on Carlos Correa. He's been better of late, in terms of getting some singles to drop, but I'm still not seeing any indicators that Correa is on the verge of recapturing his form as a true impact player on the offensive side. Pitchers are challenging him relentlessly in the strike zone and rarely paying for it. I'll be satisfied enough with average production from him.

I'm also not counting on Royce Lewis, not right now anyway. He looks out of whack at the plate and uncomfortable on the bases. And while you'd like to attribute that to temporary rust, Lewis's struggles date back the final six weeks of 2024. He now has one home run in his past 175 plate appearances, and that one barely skimmed over the left field wall at Target Field. Like with Correa, we know full well what Lewis is capable of, but in both cases I'm just not seeing anything to make me believe at the moment. 

Finally, I'm not counting on Brooks Lee. He's had some clutch hits over this winning streak and is coming off an awesome three-hit game, but in general he's just not showing enough discipline for a guy that lacks standout power. Lee is slashing .232/.277/.347 through 278 MLB plate appearances.

Again: not saying by any means that these three players can't be key factors — along with Ty France, Willi Castro and even Edouard Julien or José Miranda — but I'm not expecting them to be the top difference-makers. Instead, I've got my eyes on these four players, who have already experienced offensive breakthroughs with potential to sustain.

Byron Buxton
Obviously. Even with a league-leading strikeout total, Buxton has been one of the most valuable players in baseball, ranking 16th among qualified players in fWAR. Just writing a sentence that included "Buxton" and "qualified player" makes me feel so happy. He's slashing .264/.304/.520 this year, including .322/.364/.610 since Keaschall got hurt on April 25th, and he's 8-for-8 on stolen base attempts with the second-most runs scored in the American League.

Healthy at last, Buxton has easily been the team's MVP so far, and again: he's done it while whiffing at an exorbitant rate. Makes you wonder what's possible if he dials in the strike zone control just a tad. Buxton was showing signs of doing so, tallying seven strikeouts against four walks through his first eight games in May before striking out seven times on Saturday and Sunday.

 

Harrison Bader
When Bader homered three times with eight RBIs in his first five games as a Twin, it had the clear makings of an isolated hot start. Sure enough, after 10 more games played, he had a .686 OPS and 11-to-1 K/BB ratio. This seemed to match up with the reports on Bader, a defensive stud whose hitting ability and plate presence had largely gone amiss.

But Bader refused to succumb to such a fate. Instead, he got back on track offensively in mid-April and now he has the best OPS on the team here at the one-quarter milestone. In 14 games since Keaschall joined Wallner on the IL, Bader is slashing .405/.490/.571, and after flailing at times early, he's putting together really solid professional at-bats. During this span, Bader has a 7-to-7 K/BB ratio, and on the season, his 10% walk rate dwarfs his career mark. 

He surely won't maintain at that rate, but if Bader's evolution in pitch selection is at all legit, he is plenty capable of continuing to contribute at an All-Star level alongside Buxton. So far, this is shaping up as one of the best free agent signings in team history, especially given the stakes.

 

Trevor Larnach
Through his first 15 games this year, Larnach was sporting  lean .189/.279/.208 slash line with just one extra-base hit through 64 plate appearances. Personally, I wasn't that concerned. Nothing I saw led me to believe Larnach's talent wouldn't eventually win out and start translating to results. Now we are seeing it, in timely fashion.

Since Wallner went down with his injury on April 15th, Larnach has produced an .846 OPS that is nearly identical to Wallner's team-leading mark when he suffered the injury (.847). Larnach has been a vital factor as really the only left-handed bat that presents any kind of threat in the Twins lineup, batting .303 with two homers and two doubles during the current winning streak.

 

Ryan Jeffers
The signs were there, even as Jeffers stumbled to a slow start the plate. But he has answered the call in the face of these injuries, slashing .271/.370/.457 in 21 games since April 15th. Like the others named above, Jeffers is inspiring a lot of confidence with not just his production but his approach at the plate (15 K and 9 BB in these 21 games). 

Overall, his .717 OPS on the season is about average, but that kind of steady output at the position is hard to come by, and too often was for the Twins last year. When you're getting offensive impact at all from catcher it can greatly benefit a lineup. Helpfully, Christian Vázquez has started to at least find his way on base, with four walks in 18 May plate appearances. Since the Wallner injury, Minnesota's catchers are top-10 in wOBA, and if that keeps up the offense should be alright.

 

I'm certainly not giving up on the likes of Correa, Lewis or Lee in the grand scheme, but they all need to show me something. The four hitters above have done so, and they're helping lift the floor of the offense in the process. If they can keep it up, the Twins are going to keep winning, and if some of the team's other dormant stars can awaken in time for Wallner and eventually Keaschall to rejoin the fight, there's a whole lot to like about the lineup's eventual ceiling.

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[dxpavelka]

Teams that have memorable seasons don't do so with the likes of Correa, Lee & Lewis having non memorable seasons.  Two of the three need to come thru.  Even if only because of the likelihood of at least one of Buxton, Bader, Larnach & Jeffers NOT doing so.  Not sure why we should feel compelled to downgrade Lee because his numbers this year are better than his career numbers and do the same to Lewis because his career numbers are better than his numbers this year, but OK.

[Patzky]

There are a lot of moving parts and so long as they don't all break down simultaneously we have a good chance to 'hold our own' until Wallner and or Keaschall return. Today will be telling, two days off after a hot streak can make or break our road trip. Got to win at least one today and Ober typically gives us a chance to do so.

Just on impressions, Bader, Larnach, and Jeffers seem to be dialed in. Play them all both games, lefty or not.

[Old Twins Cap]

It's all about having a career year from multiple guys.  That's what to focus on.

Anyone having a career year right now for the Twins? 

Buxton, maybe.  Larnach, kind of.  Jeffers, possibly.  Bader, yeah, could be.  Lee, got a shot at it.

Everyone else, it's time to turn on the jets because here we are in mid-May -- the season is sailing into mid-season.

Not feeling it from the Twins this year, but sure glad we have a .500 team to watch compared to what it could be.

[Linus]

Everyone in the lineup has question marks. For me they all have to contribute in some way most games. Whether that is a big hit or run saving catch.  Where we get in trouble is when we have guys not hitting, making errors or outs on the bases. Thankfully the pitching should take some of the pressure off

[Major League Ready]

I would think the most likely place to improve would be the guys underperforming not the guys that are doing as well or better than expected.  Our best chance is for Lewis and Correa to get going.   Castro and France have some upside as well.

[MinnInPa]

Keashall will help FOR SURE (from what we saw on his short time up here)..but, wallner is not a difference maker....220 hitter that will K over 30% of the time. we need more guys that can put the bat on the ball and not be rally killers with the big K

[David Maro]

Doesn't matter who is or isn't available they have to improve the away record.

[Parfigliano]

 

Keashall will help FOR SURE (from what we saw on his short time up here)..but, wallner is not a difference maker....220 hitter that will K over 30% of the time. we need more guys that can put the bat on the ball and not be rally killers with the big K

I'd concentrate more on his .800+ OPS then his batting average and it would be nice to get his K rate down.

[bean5302]

I don't think counting on below average veteran hitters to lead the club based on SSSS trends is a good strategy.
2,644 PA .244/.309/.395 OPS .704 wRC+ 93 (career xwOBA .293 vs. this year .315)
1,259 PA .237/.323/.402 OPS .725 wRC+ 105 (career xwOBA .326 vs. this year .331)

Bader's xwOBA has been 10pts higher than his actual throughout his career, with Larnach trailing his by about 15pts. That puts Bader in line for an actual production of about wOBA .305 (about wRC+ 95) and Larnach at about .315 (about wRC+ 100).

Not that there's any reason you can't count on players without the track record. Everybody gets to have their favorites or play the hot hand for a series or two. Honestly, the Twins are nearly full strength already. Wallner is probably end of May at the earliest and Keaschall will be after the All Star break, if he's back on the club.

By the way, one is Keaschall, the other is Lee in their first 26 PA
26 PA .458/.462/.625, OPS 1.087, 3.8% BB, 7.7% K, wRC+ 207
26 PA .368/.538/.526, OPS 1.065, 19.2% BB, 7.7% K, wRC+ 213

Here's Lee's line for the rest of his rookie season
.182/.233/.270 OPS .503 wRC+ 38

Keaschall may turn into a real stud, but I'd be surprised to see him better than league average at the plate this year if he sticks in MLB.

More long term, the production is going to have to come from guys who are expected to be good hitters, and Correa really needs to be producing .

[Trov]

Okay, I think we are going a little overboard on Keaschall in this article.  Yes, he came up and was great in his 19 ab, but it was 19.  To talk about how we need to hold things together until his arm heals because he is some driving force is crazy.  It was 19 AB.  I remember Brooks Lee last year in his first few games was on a tear, only to become unplayable for times.  

[Linus]

 

Okay, I think we are going a little overboard on Keaschall in this article.  Yes, he came up and was great in his 19 ab, but it was 19.  To talk about how we need to hold things together until his arm heals because he is some driving force is crazy.  It was 19 AB.  I remember Brooks Lee last year in his first few games was on a tear, only to become unplayable for times.  

This is a fair take we have no idea what Keaschall will do when he returns. Seems we can count on some additional aggressiveness on the bases but hitting wise we would be wise to temper expectations. 

[DJL44]

I reject the premise that the lineup will ever be at "full strength". Someone is always injured.

[Doctor Gast]

I agree that Buck, Bader, Larnach & Jeffers have been our most reliable bats lately & we need them to remain steady & not regress. Correa is a head scratcher & a bit concerning that he hasn't been producing as expected. Lee is producing better than expected but he's hard to predict if he can maintain that (I hope so). From the beginning, I've advocated for France to play mainly DH, so he can focus only on his hitting & forego his efforts of being passable at 1B.

Wallner & Keaschall have been 2 of our best hitters while they were on the field. But I'd like to point out that we started this winning streak w/o them, Julien & Gasper, all of whom had steady playing time. Yet,  the addition of Lewis & Castro; to quote Correa, "Our team now seems complete" when these guys returned. They brought chemistry, better defense & fire & IMO these intangibles were the difference makers. I'm expecting a continuation of the pitching excellence, production of your 4, that Lee would prove himself, Castro & especially Lewis would shake off their rust & really produce, Correa able to figure things out, Vazquez get key walks & hits with his defense, better defense overall & base-running.

 

[silverslugger]

It that's how we truly feel about Correa, does he need to be a salary dump at the deadline?  Or is his clubhouse "presence" enough to keep him around?  I've never liked the fact that he stated he realized he needed to play at 90% to make it through a season.  He still hasn't made it through the last two despite not hustling 100% of the time.  Has that thought process been a net negative on the team?  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

If 2 of the 3 considered stars are hitting well this team will do well.  It is no surprise we went on a winning streak at the same time Correa began to heat up for a bit.  

Correa's slow starts are really frustrating.  Buxton has been the best Buxton can be,  aggressive hitting, baserunning and in the field.  The strikeouts are up, and I still have a concern he becomes a black hole against the best pitching teams and in the playoffs as they attack his over aggressive nature.  Lewis, is a major question mark whether he can stay healthy and/or hit well.   At this point I think we will be ok if an injury or underperformance occurs as both Lee and Keaschall appear to be solid options.   

Bader and France have brought some professional approaches to the plate, and also some very good defense.   

Jeffers and Larnach both appear to be turning a corner.   

The offense as we have it will be pretty potent with at worst 1 to 2 likely outs in the lineup.  It would be nice to continue to strengthen the bench a bit, even with Kiersey's big moment this weekend.   Clemens, Bride and Keirsey is pretty underwhelming for the bench.   

Now we will just have to see if last week was a flash in a pan,  or will the hitting continue to improve and being able to maintain through the season.  I am pretty optimistic of that and have been for a while.  I figured sooner or later the bats wouldn't remain that cold and getting some injured players back would help.  

[bean5302]

 

It that's how we truly feel about Correa, does he need to be a salary dump at the deadline?  Or is his clubhouse "presence" enough to keep him around?  I've never liked the fact that he stated he realized he needed to play at 90% to make it through a season.  He still hasn't made it through the last two despite not hustling 100% of the time.  Has that thought process been a net negative on the team?  

It's a frequent proposal that a poorly performing and expensive player should just be traded. The problem is nobody probably wants a poorly performing, expensive player on a long term contract. So Minnesota would need to eat a LOT of cash, oh, and get Correa to sign away his full no trade clause.

His value was -59.2 as of May 2nd. That means, in order to trade Correa, for nothing in return, Baseballtradevalues predicts Minnesota would have to eat about$60MM.
Trade Deadline 2025
2025 - $12MM remaining, Minnesota eats $10MM, new team $2MM
2026 - $33MM, Minnesota eats $17MM, new team $16MM
2027 - $32MM, Minnesota eats $16MM , new team $16MM
2028 - $32MM, Minnesota eats $16MM, new team $16MM

Now that this nearly impossible scenario is approved, does that help the Twins? We have literally zero MLB caliber shortstops in our entire organization other than Correa right now. So we'll have to put a poor fielder at SS, and that doesn't help the Twins win games. The $16MM in savings is substantial, but it doesn't make a huge impact, either.

Finally, who is this mystical trade partner who #1 needs a shortstop, #2 is a playoff caliber team, #3 has the payroll capacity long term?

[LambchoP]

A lot of IF's, but if Buck can stay healthy and keep playing like he has and if Correa and Lewis start hitting, we should be good enough until Keaschal and Wallner are back. One move that could really help is calling up Mccusker. If he can translate his AAA success to the majors, having a RH power bat in the OF would really lengthen this lineup. I'd imagine he would provide more offense than Keirsey, Bride or Clemens. Why not give him his shot?

[silverslugger]

 

It's a frequent proposal that a poorly performing and expensive player should just be traded. The problem is nobody probably wants a poorly performing, expensive player on a long term contract. So Minnesota would need to eat a LOT of cash, oh, and get Correa to sign away his full no trade clause.

His value was -59.2 as of May 2nd. That means, in order to trade Correa, for nothing in return, Baseballtradevalues predicts Minnesota would have to eat about$60MM.
Trade Deadline 2025
2025 - $12MM remaining, Minnesota eats $10MM, new team $2MM
2026 - $33MM, Minnesota eats $17MM, new team $16MM
2027 - $32MM, Minnesota eats $16MM , new team $16MM
2028 - $32MM, Minnesota eats $16MM, new team $16MM

Now that this nearly impossible scenario is approved, does that help the Twins? We have literally zero MLB caliber shortstops in our entire organization other than Correa right now. So we'll have to put a poor fielder at SS, and that doesn't help the Twins win games. The $16MM in savings is substantial, but it doesn't make a huge impact, either.

Finally, who is this mystical trade partner who #1 needs a shortstop, #2 is a playoff caliber team, #3 has the payroll capacity long term?

This was a good exercise in numbers and has much merit.  However, you only need one team to have a need to make a trade.  Plus, your assumption is that there will be no other pieces other than salary.  The obvious answer at this point, based on teams that have top ten salaries in the league and a need to upgrade the shortstop position...the Atlanta Braves.  There's your "mythical" team.

[bean5302]

 

This was a good exercise in numbers and has much merit.  However, you only need one team to have a need to make a trade.  Plus, your assumption is that there will be no other pieces other than salary.  The obvious answer at this point, based on teams that have top ten salaries in the league and a need to upgrade the shortstop position...the Atlanta Braves.  There's your "mythical" team.

The Braves might be a fit. They've got nothing at SS ready and they can clear $10MM in contracts to make room for Correa with an $8MM club option on Fletcher (career over), and $2MM on Orlando Arcia for next year and beyond. So Atlanta might do the deal right now, not just at the deadline, but I think they'd prefer staying under the luxury tax by like $3-4MM in anticipation of deadline moves so say the Braves can eat about $15MM in additional payroll this year.

Correa's making $37MM x .75 = roughly $28MM left this year.

Proposal
Carlos Correa + Cash for Orlando Arcia
2025 = Twins eat $13MM, Atlanta pays $15MM
2026 = Twins eat $15MM, Atlanta pays $16.8MM
2027 = Twins eat $15MM, Atlanta pays $15.8MM
2028 = Twins eat $15MM, Atlanta pays $15.3MM

The starting shortstop for the Twins is now Orlando Arcia.

If this doesn't signal the Twins are packing it in for the year, I can't imagine what would. If the Twins wait until the deadline, Correa's value might jump, but the Twins might be in the playoff hunt or Atlanta might already have solved their issue. It's a lot of the "if" game. Just have to see, but I don't see how trading Correa doesn't signal rebuild.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Teams that have memorable seasons don't do so with the likes of Correa, Lee & Lewis having non memorable seasons.  Two of the three need to come thru.  Even if only because of the likelihood of at least one of Buxton, Bader, Larnach & Jeffers NOT doing so.  Not sure why we should feel compelled to downgrade Lee because his numbers this year are better than his career numbers and do the same to Lewis because his career numbers are better than his numbers this year, but OK.

Is that true though? The most memorable season of the last 5 years, if not the last 20, came in 2023 when Correa and Buxton had the worst campaigns of their career, and Lewis played 50 games. That's kind of my point. It's about having guys elsewhere step up, which this team is capable of.

Not sure what your point is on Lee/Lewis -- I'm downgrading them both for the same reason: neither has been a remote offensive threat in their past 200 plate appearances.

[NYCTK]

 

It's a frequent proposal that a poorly performing and expensive player should just be traded. The problem is nobody probably wants a poorly performing, expensive player on a long term contract. So Minnesota would need to eat a LOT of cash, oh, and get Correa to sign away his full no trade clause.

His value was -59.2 as of May 2nd. That means, in order to trade Correa, for nothing in return, Baseballtradevalues predicts Minnesota would have to eat about$60MM.
Trade Deadline 2025
2025 - $12MM remaining, Minnesota eats $10MM, new team $2MM
2026 - $33MM, Minnesota eats $17MM, new team $16MM
2027 - $32MM, Minnesota eats $16MM , new team $16MM
2028 - $32MM, Minnesota eats $16MM, new team $16MM

Now that this nearly impossible scenario is approved, does that help the Twins? We have literally zero MLB caliber shortstops in our entire organization other than Correa right now. So we'll have to put a poor fielder at SS, and that doesn't help the Twins win games. The $16MM in savings is substantial, but it doesn't make a huge impact, either.

Finally, who is this mystical trade partner who #1 needs a shortstop, #2 is a playoff caliber team, #3 has the payroll capacity long term?

Yankees just lost their 3B, and they weren't deep there to begin with...

 

[Major League Ready]

 

Keashall will help FOR SURE (from what we saw on his short time up here)..but, wallner is not a difference maker....220 hitter that will K over 30% of the time. we need more guys that can put the bat on the ball and not be rally killers with the big K

Wallner was tied with Correa for the highest wRC+ on the team last year and he was 2nd (didn't count Keaschall given SSS) this year before going down from injury.  He is probably the biggest offensive difference maker on the team based on weighted runs created.

[alexlegge]

Lee appears to be heating up, which is a very good sign. 

There's a notable medical reason to be more optimistic here: the rate of recurrent herniated discs among athletes is relatively low: 10ish percent.

By comparison, Royce Lewis' two main injury concerns have been ACL tears (20ish percent recurrence rate) and hamstring strains (30ish percent recurrence rate). There are various reasons for these discrepancies, but it's worth noting one of the simpler ones, because it applies to Correa and Lewis: recurrence rates of lower extremity injuries factor in the possibility of re-injuring the same side *or* the opposite side. In other words, a strain to your right hamstring increases your risk of straining *either* hamstring thereafter. Spinal injuries, on the other hand, tend not to have the same risk-doubling effect, because we only have *one* spine to worry about (thankfully, the majority of spinal discs aren't particularly susceptible to sports-related herniations). This is an over-simplification of an advanced medical topic, but there's more than a kernel of truth to it.

The little we've seen of healthy Brooks Lee has been phenomenal. Hopefully he doesn't turn into a pumpkin (or a low-probability statistic).

[DocBauer]

It's a balancing act isn't it? Buxton is a streaky player...and all players have streaks...but he's showing what kind of a difference maker he is when in the lineup.

Correa is looking much better as of late, but certainly not the Correa we've seen before when 100%. Is he hiding an injury? Or is his swing really just that messed up? I think we'll know come end of May.

Lee has also been pretty solid, but not great, and is NOT a finished product yet. As I've said before, keep playing him daily for his glove and the offense he's providing, and don't be surprised to see a better, more productive player in the 2nd half.

I've always been a believer in Jeffers, even though he's also streaky at times. But then again, everyone has good and bad runs. 

I think this is the real Larnach based on potential and his 2024.

Lewis has done nothing so far. But we know the talent and previous production. Imagine his switch flipping soon...for as long as possible. (Come on baseball gods! He's deserving of some good health!). 

I don't see Bader continuing to do what he's done for a whole season. I believe he's going to slip. That doesn't mean a healthy Bader can't still be a solid, contributing player.

While he's NOT a dynamic or difference making player, France has been solid, taken professional AB, and has been clutch at times.

All of this to say it's still a TEAM game, and guys WILL run hot and cold at different times. So while I can't disagree with the OP...and it is about maintaining decent production until the return of Wallner and Keaschall...I still think it's about not EVERYONE tanking AT ONCE, which was the case to start the season.

Wallner is one of the Twins best 4 players. Getting him back makes a difference. The SSS of Keaschall just isn't sustainable. That doesn't mean he's not ready for MLB and can't make a difference for the 2nd half when he returns.

There's enough talent to keep the offense afloat before Wallner and Keaschall are back. There's enough potential in the lineup to be solid and productive now, and to be better when those guys return. But it still remains for everyone to contribute here and there. Two or three guys alone can't carry the offense.

[dxpavelka]

 

Is that true though? The most memorable season of the last 5 years, if not the last 20, came in 2023 when Correa and Buxton had the worst campaigns of their career, and Lewis played 50 games. That's kind of my point. It's about having guys elsewhere step up, which this team is capable of.

Not sure what your point is on Lee/Lewis -- I'm downgrading them both for the same reason: neither has been a remote offensive threat in their past 200 plate appearances.

Lee has improved from last year and may well continue to do so.  To be honest their last 200 plate appearances (actually ANY player's last 200 plate appearances) don't mean jack.  I'm far more tuned in everybody's NEXT 300 plate appearances. 

[dxpavelka]

 

It's all about having a career year from multiple guys.  That's what to focus on.

Anyone having a career year right now for the Twins? 

Buxton, maybe.  Larnach, kind of.  Jeffers, possibly.  Bader, yeah, could be.  Lee, got a shot at it.

Everyone else, it's time to turn on the jets because here we are in mid-May -- the season is sailing into mid-season.

Not feeling it from the Twins this year, but sure glad we have a .500 team to watch compared to what it could be.

Fortunately, 45 games does not a season make.   I'm pretty sure I could afford a nice steak at Manny's if I had a nickel for every guy who has ever "turned on the jets" from this point in the season on.  Some of them even Twins in recent seasons.  Donovan Solano had FIVE RBI at this point in the season in 2023.  We don't sniff the playoffs without what he did from this point forward that year.