Falvey's Drafting & Development Results

[jorgenswest]

Lot’s of good work and thoughts in this thread. Thanks everyone.

[Major League Ready]

I have been a bit down on their position player development.  However, I look around the diamond and what do we see?

The starting OF is comprised of drafted players.  (Buxton/Wallner/Larnach) with Bader thrown in and Martin probably replaces Kiersey when martin gets healthy.  

3B - Lewis / 2B Keaschall / C - Jeffers.  Lee plays 3 positions and would be the SS had we not signed CC.  That leaves 1B.  Would AK have been serviceable without the injuries?  IDK but when I look at it this way it's hard to say they have been terrible at developing position players.

The back-end of the BP (Duran/Jax/Sands were all drafted.   Starting pitching has a mix of trades and drafted players.  I look at an acquisition like Ryan or Duran a little differently than people who simply say "well, we didn't draft him.  No, we didn't but he cost us essentially nothing and he was not an established player.  That's very different than acquiring a free agent of trading for an established player.  We also have 2 major league ready SPs just waiting for an opening.  We also have Prielipp / Soto and Hill with high upside.  We are in the best pitching shape I have seen in a very long time.

[bean5302]

20 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

This is something me and you have not seen eye to eye on.   Lets split the drafts pre-covid 17-19,  Covid Year,   Post Covid.  

17 - Lewis and Ober.  We are still waiting for Lewis to remain healthy and steady production,  but he still has the potential at being an all star.  Ober has been a great find.  

For 18 you have Larnach, Jeffers, Keirsey and Sands -  That is a very solid draft.  Jeffers has been the best so far, Larnach seems to be turning a corner and Sands is solidifying in the bullpen. 

19 - Wallner, Julien, Varland  (traded away Steer) - 2 very solid pieces it appears right now in Wallner and Varland.  I hoped for more out of Julien but alas I don't think his defense will be able to hold up at the mlb level. 

I ignore the 2020 draft even though it has netted us Raya

2021 draft -  We traded away our first 5 draft picks to supplement the big league team.  The petty Trade appears to be a massive win.  The rest were meh.  We will still have Festa and Ohl  who both look like solid pitchers.  

22-24 Our best drafts by far.  Lee,  Matthews,  both look like major league pieces.  Morris, Lewis, Culpepper are all wait and see.  In 23 its absolutely loaded - Jenkins, Soto, Keaschall, Winokur, Questad  24 - Culpepper, Debarge, Amick, Hill.  

Overall the 17 through 19 drafts should be the core of our lineup now,  they have been solid and we got some pieces but I will agree with you that up to this point we haven't had a star that has netted a ton of WAR, although Lewis still flashes that ability to fill that roll.  The 21 draft was absolutely a great draft class,  we just used it to supplement the big league team.  That happens.  

 

The 22-24 drafts classes should all be in the minor leagues.  We have had Lee Matthews and Keaschall all flash and have the potential to be key cogs (even though Lee and Keaschall might be slightly redundant and blocking each other.  All in all these last 4 drafts have been exceptional.  We only have the last 3 to really work with,  but they have added a ton of depth to the minor leagues.  I fully expect the WAR from the drafts to start piling up as early as this year.   I think the Twins have been a top 5 draft team as of late,  top 10 at worst.   This is not an area that I would be harping on much.  Overall the drafts were ok not great early,  and they really have hit their stride the last couple of years with 3 high school arms and another high end college pitcher really increasing the quality pitching depth in the minor leagues.  

Just like I told you about this season,  you need to have the patience to let the team and the draft picks to shine.  If you look at a singular moment in time,  yes it might not look great but it might not be the full picture of the what the team or draft picks are capable of.  If you want to have a negative view be my guest.  Overall, I still really think this organization has a great future,  based on their drafting.  

Scoreboard...

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

20 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Scoreboard...

538-494  

That is the scoreboard that matters.   If we are talking about recent success of drafting and developing hitters then you have Lee and Keaschall,  The current hitters that have been drafted include Lewis, Lee, Jeffers, Wallner, Larnach and Keaschall.   Honestly that is pretty solid draft success in my opinion with some high upside as well.   

And that doesn't include the players that have been traded away to supplement our pitching which when Falvey came on the cupboard was absolutely bare.  

The concern for the last 5 years is Falvey hasn't developed the pitching pipeline he was suppose to develop.  Now we have the best starting 5, with 2-3 MLB prospects in the minors and the best quality of pitching prospects we have had with extremely high ceilings for as far back as I can remember.  

Now we have flipped back to hitting prospects which all in all is still pretty solid, but AAA is depleted because we have called up most of our best prospects to the MLB level.   

 

[bean5302]

11 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The previous regime didn't exactly fare well at developing their prospects. It's why they're the previous regime. I'm not here to defend Falvey's track record developing prospects, but I don't understand not giving him some credit for Arraez or AK. Arraez was an A ball player when Falvey took over and AK had just been drafted. Hard to argue Arraez didn't turn out alright under Falvey.

Jose Miranda and Rortvedt both made it to the bigs under Falvey. Akil Baddoo and Tyler Wells were developed enough to become Rule 5 picks that were kept. And some guy named Jax seems to have been developed alright out of that 2016 draft. Obviously TR and company deserve credit for the scouting, but feels pretty insincere to ignore that they were developed under Falvey. None of that is even counting Moran, Wade, or Stashak from 2015 that were developed in part under Falvey. Giving all the credit to a guy who wasn't around for most of their development seems awfully arbitrary and like it's ignoring a whole lot of the development part of the "draft and develop" idea.

And, FYI, Caleb Thielbar wasn't a Terry Ryan signing, he was a Bill Smith signing at the end of the 2011 season. 

How am I supposed to take you seriously? Guys who reached MLB by Falvey's first year, and their best season. All but Aaron Hicks had their best season for the Twins.

Player, Max Season WAR
Brian Dozier, All Star, 5.8 bWAR
Kyle Gibson, All Star, 3.5 bWAR
Taylor Rogers, All Star, 2.6 bWAR
Byron Buxton, All Star, 5.0 bWAR
Miguel Sano, All Star, 2.7 bWAR
Jose Berrios, All Star, 3.5 bWAR
Jorge Polanco, All Star, 5.0 bWAR

Other 10+ WAR career notable players
Aaron Hicks, 4.3 bWAR (best season was with NYY)
Max Kepler, 3.5 bWAR

Falvey...
Ummm... Brent Rooker, All Star, 5.6 bWAR. Whoopsie!

Now, I'd be surprised if Falvey's pipeline didn't produce an All Star or two just by the fact the Twins have to send a guy to the game. Falvey hasn't had a single, not one All Star for the Twins out of his 8 drafts. Best pitcher? Ober 3.1 bWAR. Best position player? Julien 2.8 bWAR.

Better turn that strawman argument machine to 11 and start spinnin'

[bean5302]

12 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

538-494  

That is the scoreboard that matters...

Not for this debate, that's a strawman.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

13 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Not for this debate, Mr. Strawman.

Lee and Keaschall

Jeffers, Wallner, Lewis 

That isn't up for debate.  That is a solid 5 starting players that will have a decent WAR this year.  

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

How am I supposed to take you seriously? Guys who reached MLB by Falvey's first year, and their best season. All but Aaron Hicks had their best season for the Twins.

Player, Max Season WAR
Brian Dozier, All Star, 5.8 bWAR
Kyle Gibson, All Star, 3.5 bWAR
Taylor Rogers, All Star, 2.6 bWAR
Byron Buxton, All Star, 5.0 bWAR
Miguel Sano, All Star, 2.7 bWAR
Jose Berrios, All Star, 3.5 bWAR
Jorge Polanco, All Star, 5.0 bWAR

Other 10+ WAR career notable players
Aaron Hicks, 4.3 bWAR (best season was with NYY)
Max Kepler, 3.5 bWAR

Falvey...
Ummm... Brent Rooker, All Star, 5.6 bWAR. Whoopsie!

Now, I'd be surprised if Falvey's pipeline didn't produce an All Star or two just by the fact the Twins have to send a guy to the game. Falvey hasn't had a single, not one All Star for the Twins out of his 8 drafts. Best pitcher? Ober 3.1 bWAR. Best position player? Julien 2.8 bWAR.

Better turn that strawman argument machine to 11 and start spinnin'

Jeffers had a 3.2 in 2023.  He has a career 7.5 WAR

Wallner 4.7 career.  Lewis 3.2.   Larnach 3.4.   

What are we arguing here?   We are not only giving false information,  we are ignoring the successes Falvey has had because it doesn't fit your agenda.  Their WAR's are less because they are still young players.  Now the real question is how can they continue to improve or give us quality performances the rest of this year and in future years.  

[Riverbrian]

12 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The previous regime didn't exactly fare well at developing their prospects. It's why they're the previous regime. I'm not here to defend Falvey's track record developing prospects, but I don't understand not giving him some credit for Arraez or AK. Arraez was an A ball player when Falvey took over and AK had just been drafted. Hard to argue Arraez didn't turn out alright under Falvey.

Jose Miranda and Rortvedt both made it to the bigs under Falvey. Akil Baddoo and Tyler Wells were developed enough to become Rule 5 picks that were kept. And some guy named Jax seems to have been developed alright out of that 2016 draft. Obviously TR and company deserve credit for the scouting, but feels pretty insincere to ignore that they were developed under Falvey. None of that is even counting Moran, Wade, or Stashak from 2015 that were developed in part under Falvey. Giving all the credit to a guy who wasn't around for most of their development seems awfully arbitrary and like it's ignoring a whole lot of the development part of the "draft and develop" idea.

And, FYI, Caleb Thielbar wasn't a Terry Ryan signing, he was a Bill Smith signing at the end of the 2011 season. 

You are correct as usual. You are revealing the nuance. 

I don't like placing things in black and white buckets when there is so much gray to consider. But for this type of exercise you have to because you are comparing the contents of buckets.   

Can we really just take a player like Arraez drafted by Ryan and give him Ryan all the credit? You have to choose in order to place him in a bucket. Why does it have to be either or? Drafting and development are likely two different things and each individual is probably a combination and somewhere in the middle. Did we draft well because we developed the draft picks or we found guys who could be developed? Did we draft poorly because we failed to develop them or we found guys who couldn't be developed? And here is another consideration. Whoever gets credit for Arraez, Arraez is with the Padres. Pablo is the result of that development in regards to the Twins. Lots of nuance. 

Joe Ryan was drafted by the Rays and spent age 22 to age 25 in the Rays system. He was traded to the Twins for Nelson Cruz. Do the Rays wish they hadn't done that in hindsight? If they could do it over... would they do it over? Did the Rays realize what they had when they made the deal for a rental that year? Probably not would be my guess. Did the Rays develop him... of course they did but did the Twins find something extra and say try this for immediate result? Was Ryan MLB ready at the time of the deal. Was he MLB ready in April of that year? He had a 0.789 WHIP in Durham over 57 innings in 2021. He had a 0.788 WHIP in 21 Innings in the Big Leagues with the Twins in 2021. Have the Twins developed Joe Ryan further in the 4 years since the trade. I'm going to assume so.

All of this is not the sole reason but yeah... a big reason why I'm struggling with our chain of low budget one year rentals on the offensive side of the ledger. The next Joe Ryan is out there somewhere.    

MLR did some nice research on the Rays that clearly illustrates that they have done a good job acquiring young controllable talent and I agree that it has been a key mechanism in the low budget success they have shown over the years. However, here is an example where they traded young controllable talent that is going to show up in his Twins bucket and not end up as negative in the Rays draft and development bucket?

Nuance. 

 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

How am I supposed to take you seriously? Guys who reached MLB by Falvey's first year, and their best season. All but Aaron Hicks had their best season for the Twins.

Player, Max Season WAR
Brian Dozier, All Star, 5.8 bWAR
Kyle Gibson, All Star, 3.5 bWAR
Taylor Rogers, All Star, 2.6 bWAR
Byron Buxton, All Star, 5.0 bWAR
Miguel Sano, All Star, 2.7 bWAR
Jose Berrios, All Star, 3.5 bWAR
Jorge Polanco, All Star, 5.0 bWAR

Other 10+ WAR career notable players
Aaron Hicks, 4.3 bWAR (best season was with NYY)
Max Kepler, 3.5 bWAR

Falvey...
Ummm... Brent Rooker, All Star, 5.6 bWAR. Whoopsie!

Now, I'd be surprised if Falvey's pipeline didn't produce an All Star or two just by the fact the Twins have to send a guy to the game. Falvey hasn't had a single, not one All Star for the Twins out of his 8 drafts. Best pitcher? Ober 3.1 bWAR. Best position player? Julien 2.8 bWAR.

Better turn that strawman argument machine to 11 and start spinnin'

Get out of here with strawman if you aren't willing to accept that Luis Arraez and his 4.1 bWAR All Star season in 2022 was Falvey developing him. You're no different than the rest of us. You tilt the rules of your little game to make it so we have to ignore certain things so the narrative fits the rules you want it to fit. Arraez was at 3.2 bWAR the season before that. Falvey developed him. Not TR. But you don't want to admit that because it doesn't fit your narrative. You want your rules set how you want them so you don't have to fight against these obvious holes in your argument. Some would call that a strawman.

I don't care about All Star games. Because, as you said, "the Twins have to send somebody." No offense to Willi, but he's no All Star caliber player. But he has an All Star game on his resume. Good for him. But you want to set the rules in your favor so we have to ignore certain players that don't fit the narrative you want to push.

Ober has the 3.1 bWAR season. And another at 2.9. Not too shabby, but I guess it doesn't fit your arbitrary rules of having to be an All Star so he doesn't count. 

I know, I know, TR gets credit for fully developing Griffin Jax because of the 8.2 innings he threw in rookie ball under him, but if we don't follow your unserious rules and accept that Falvey actually developed him, he has a 2.8 bWAR season. Hmmm...better than that Rogers season.

Shoot, Wallner got to 2.2 bWAR last year in 75 games. May be on to something there. 

Jeffers has a 3.2 bWAR season, but no All Star game so I can't use him because you've decided the All Star game is the deciding factor on who's good and who isn't because you'd never build a strawman. Oh wait, that also means your statement about Julien being the best position player drafted and developed by Falvey is false. Now how are we supposed to take you seriously when you aren't even providing accurate information?

So, we also have Julien in there at 2.6 (not 2.8, so you're still providing bad information).

Now I'm at Arraez, Ober, Jax, Wallner, Jeffers, and Julien who Falvey deserves at least some credit for in his 8 years. That's 7 guys (adding Rooker) in 8 years. You listed 9 from the Smith and 2nd TR regimes. So, 7 in 8 years vs 9 in 9 years. 

So, again, you want to set hard and fast rules about when a guy was drafted and ignore who was in charge when they were developing. Don't go throwing around "strawman" so easily when you're spinning it pretty well yourself. You do the same thing everyone else does by tilting the rules in your favor. Don't get upset because you got called out on it. And make sure you're providing accurate information before you start questioning taking people seriously.

And I don't even think Falvey has been good enough at developing guys. Just like Smith and TR weren't. And it's why I'd fire Falvey like Smith and TR were fired.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I have been a bit down on their position player development.  However, I look around the diamond and what do we see?

The starting OF is composed of drafted players.  (Buxton/Wallner/Larnach) with Bader thrown in and Martin probably replaces Kiersey when martin gets healthy.  

3B - Lewis / 2B Keaschall / C - Jeffers.  Lee plays 3 positions and would be the SS had we not signed CC.  That leaves 1B.  Would AK have been serviceable without the injuries?  IDK but when I look at it this way it's hard to say they have been terrible at developing position players.

The back-end of the BP (Duran/Jax/Sands were all drafted.   Starting pitching has a mix of trades and drafted players.  I look at an acquisition like Ryan or Duran a little differently than people who simply say "well, we didn't draft him.  No, we didn't but he cost us essentially nothing and he was not an established player.  That's very different than acquiring a free agent of trading for an established player.  We also have 2 major league ready SPs just waiting for an opening.  We also have Prielipp / Soto and Hill with high upside.  We are in the best pitching shape I have seen in a very long time.

IMO. If allowed to nutshell a little.

My biggest concern with the current Twins in terms of development is that we have graduated players from pre-arb to arb and we have hit a lull in replacement pre-arb. Once they hit arbitration they start to eat away at the available budget.

Each bite from the budget takes the club further away from money available to get a bigger potentially more impactful player in free agency. 

 

 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Lee and Keaschall

Jeffers, Wallner, Lewis 

That isn't up for debate.  That is a solid 5 starting players that will have a decent WAR this year.  

Jeffers had a 3.2 in 2023.  He has a career 7.5 WAR

Wallner 4.7 career.  Lewis 3.2.   Larnach 3.4.   

What are we arguing here?   We are not only giving false information,  we are ignoring the successes Falvey has had because it doesn't fit your agenda.  Their WAR's are less because they are still young players.  Now the real question is how can they continue to improve or give us quality performances the rest of this year and in future years.  

Sure. Lee and Keaschall will never have a season where they produce more than 0.0 WAR. Ever. In fact, they'll both be out of MLB baseball forever next year as neither Brooks Lee nor Luke Keaschall gets on base a single time for the rest of the entire careers. They'll post a .000/.000/.000 with 0 walks and 100% strikeout rate forever. Even after they retreat into shame in beer league softball. Neither will ever hit another baseball, ever. Even playing whiffle ball with their kids, Lee and Keachsall will be unable to ever make contact with a ball of any sort using any kind of bat ever again for the rest of their lives. There, I've just debated you. While Zebby Matthews will undoubtedly put up 10 WAR per season and win every single Cy Young for the next 30 years accumulating 300 career WAR as he plays until age 55 in your mind, other people might disagree. 

Fangraphs has Jeffers at 2.3 in 2023 and I gave credit to Falvey for every single 0.1 WAR produced by his drafted players. Even Randy Dobnak as Falvey signed Dobber. Did you see where almost everybody on that list I posted pretty much had more single season WAR than Lewis or Larnach's entire career? 2.0 WAR per season is the bare minimum for a regular position player, and 2.5 WAR is the baseline for actually holding your own on a playoff team; less than that and somebody else on the roster has to make up for you in order to make the playoffs. Lewis (my favorite player) has never put together a single good season for a starter. Larnach is a AAAA guy historically. Sub 1.0 WAR seasons are not exciting accomplishments as you can go out and grab those guys for league minimum every year. I listed ALL STARS, dude. ALL STARS. You're listing mediocre season players as if they're bonafide stars. I love Royce Lewis, but he hasn't done anything.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

Sure. Lee and Keaschall will never have a season where they produce more than 0.0 WAR. Ever. In fact, they'll both be out of MLB baseball forever next year as neither Brooks Lee nor Luke Keaschall gets on base a single time for the rest of the entire careers. They'll post a .000/.000/.000 with 0 walks and 100% strikeout rate forever. Even after they retreat into shame in beer league softball. Neither will ever hit another baseball, ever. Even playing whiffle ball with their kids, Lee and Keachsall will be unable to ever make contact with a ball of any sort using any kind of bat ever again for the rest of their lives. There, I've just debated you. While Zebby Matthews will undoubtedly put up 10 WAR per season and win every single Cy Young for the next 30 years accumulating 300 career WAR as he plays until age 55 in your mind, other people might disagree. 

Fangraphs has Jeffers at 2.3 in 2023 and I gave credit to Falvey for every single 0.1 WAR produced by his drafted players. Even Randy Dobnak as Falvey signed Dobber. Did you see where almost everybody on that list I posted pretty much had more single season WAR than Lewis or Larnach's entire career? 2.0 WAR per season is the bare minimum for a regular position player, and 2.5 WAR is the baseline for actually holding your own on a playoff team; less than that and somebody else on the roster has to make up for you in order to make the playoffs. Lewis (my favorite player) has never put together a single good season for a starter. Larnach is a AAAA guy historically. Sub 1.0 WAR seasons are not exciting accomplishments as you can go out and grab those guys for league minimum every year. I listed ALL STARS, dude. ALL STARS. You're listing mediocre season players as if they're bonafide stars. I love Royce Lewis, but he hasn't done anything.

You are talking about players that have played for 2-3 seasons or less.  Let them play them play their careers out.  Holy crap.  

Larnach looks the most confident I have every seen him in the last week.  He looks like he is turning a corner.  Lewis just got back, lets see if he can stay healthy.  Lee also seems to be getting more comfortable at the MLB level Keaschall just had a cup of coffee.  If you want to limit players calling them AAAA players be my guest.  You will see what you want to see.   I see a pretty solid roster with a lot of players picked by Falvey.  They are also on an 8 game winning streak which makes the timing of your post incredibly odd.  

 

[Major League Ready]

39 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

IMO. If allowed to nutshell a little.

My biggest concern with the current Twins in terms of development is that we have graduated players from pre-arb to arb and we have hit a lull in replacement pre-arb. Once they hit arbitration they start to eat away at the available budget.

Each bite from the budget takes the club further away from money available to get a bigger potentially more impactful player in free agency. 

 

 

Hard to argue that point.  It's especially true where catchers are concerned.  I would have preferred the Polanco trade to be straight up for Harry Ford.  I have no idea if that was possible but it would have been preferrable, IMO.  If there is a deal made for one of our pitchers, it sure would be ideal if we got a major league ready or near ready catcher.  A really great 1B would be OK as well and probably a lot easier to find.

I don't want to see Pablo go.  However, the right trade could really help set us up for an extended run.  I anxiously await Zebby's arrival.  I see him as the key.  If he proves capable of replacing Pablo, they could trade Pablo next off-season or at the deadline next year.  In the process securing a couple very good prospects to fill the holes/need you identified and open up $21M to spend in free agency or extensions.  

 

[Vanimal46]

It feels like we’re falling into the same mindset that kept Terry Ryan around for more than a decade. Falvey’s done some good things for the organization, and leaves much to be desired with other things. 

Is it unreasonable to expect more than an 82-85 win team in Falvey’s 9th full season as the top executive? I sure hope not. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

6 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

It feels like we’re falling into the same mindset that kept Terry Ryan around for more than a decade. Falvey’s done some good things for the organization, and leaves much to be desired with other things. 

Is it unreasonable to expect more than an 82-85 win team in Falvey’s 9th full season as the top executive? I sure hope not. 

This is probably the most talented roster and deepest we have had in the Falvey era.  You have a deep bullpen,  5 solid starting pitchers with 2-3 more solid options in the minors in Festa and Matthews.  And the hitters are really pretty solid, even though underperformed early in the season.  They seem to be turning a corner.  I am expecting an upper 80's to lower 90's win team this year in one of the toughest divisions in mlb.  All in all that is not a bad outcome,  and likely is better than some of our other records earlier in Falveys tenure where we beat up and weaker teams in the division.  

[Trov]

To say a team is failing to draft and develop players because the drafted WAR is not 50% is crazy.  I agree that you cannot build your team through just FA, and the Twins have not done that.  Much of their team is done through trades and drafting.  On the current roster, about half were drafted by the team.  However, that does not mean the rest were FA.  Many were from trades when they were in the minors.  In our pitchers on the current roster. Ober, Varland, Sands, and Jax were only ones we drafted.  However, Ryan, SWR, Alcala, Duran, were guys traded for as minor league guys and developed in our system. Lopez, Paddock, and Topa were all traded as MLB guys, using players developed by the Twins.  Specifically, Arraez, Rodgers, and Polanco, all of which trades have been decent for team. 

In terms of hitters similar about half were drafted by the team.  There are a few that came in FA, but outside of CC none were major FA signings.  Castro was a DFA guy they unlocked to be a valuable player. 

I am not saying Falvey is perfect, but judging a GM just by drafts is a terrible way to judge.  They should be judged by the team they build, and if you can continue to have guys ready to fill in that is a good thing.  You will never find a single GM that hits on every draft.  Sometimes using those picks to help the current roster is good.  

[Vanimal46]

 

This is probably the most talented roster and deepest we have had in the Falvey era.  You have a deep bullpen,  5 solid starting pitchers with 2-3 more solid options in the minors in Festa and Matthews.  And the hitters are really pretty solid, even though underperformed early in the season.  They seem to be turning a corner.  I am expecting an upper 80's to lower 90's win team this year in one of the toughest divisions in mlb.  All in all that is not a bad outcome,  and likely is better than some of our other records earlier in Falveys tenure where we beat up and weaker teams in the division.  

I don’t feel that way and that’s fine. We can disagree. I think we’ve been perpetually stuck as a hopeful 85 win team if everything breaks right for the last 5 years. 

[laloesch]

 

Seriously what is wrong with this board.  Are we all just negative nellies?   

By then July you could have the following roster -  

Infield - Lewis, Correa, Keaschall, France      - Lee as super utility   

Outfield - Bader, Buxton, Wallner, Larnach - 

McCusker and Castro as bench players or keep Kiersey up if you want more speed.  

Catcher - Jeffers Vasquez

 

Or keep Lee at second and Keaschall remains in AAA.   Other than outfield,  I feel pretty good about next years roster.  Every year we will have some 1 year deals, I don't understand the consternation.  We are loaded on infield prospects.  Its the outfield that is questionable.  

I really liked what I saw from Keaschall before he got hurt.  When he gets back he should rejoin the roster at the very least as DH. In the meantime I'd like to see the Twins call up McCusker and see what he brings to the table (primarily as DH).  If it doesn't work out, it doesn't work out.

I'm all for letting Lee fill in at short until Correa picks it up.  His bat is still a liability and he needs time to figure it out instead of hitting into double plays all the time.  Until then Lee can split starts with him until he gets that swing and approach ironed out.    

 

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Hard to argue that point.  It's especially true where catchers are concerned.  I would have preferred the Polanco trade to be straight up for Harry Ford.  I have no idea if that was possible but it would have been preferrable, IMO.  If there is a deal made for one of our pitchers, it sure would be ideal if we got a major league ready or near ready catcher.  A really great 1B would be OK as well and probably a lot easier to find.

I don't want to see Pablo go.  However, the right trade could really help set us up for an extended run.  I anxiously await Zebby's arrival.  I see him as the key.  If he proves capable of replacing Pablo, they could trade Pablo next off-season or at the deadline next year.  In the process securing a couple very good prospects to fill the holes/need you identified and open up $21M to spend in free agency or extensions.  

 

I know that you are going to agree with what I'm about to say.

The Twins are in an interesting situation.

In terms of roster development... the Twins tend to act more like the big budget teams than the lower budget teams. There is one key, major, huge difference with the big budget teams. That is Money.

The Twins plugging holes with Bader and France is no different than the Mets plugging holes with Soto. The difference is the price tag and talent level. We can't keep up with them that way... no matter how good a job Bader is doing thus far... We can't do it. 

Being in contention, we have moved young talent for vet talent... I'm not questioning the need to do that because I think buyers should buy and sellers should sell but being in contention is largely a big market action and buying at the deadline is a form of keeping up with the big market Joneses. Being in contention has caused us to strip mine Wallner and Larnach for parts and that plays a role in development and player value. Choosing Garlick for a low level role he can play in that given year over Rooker is how you accidentally lose a Rooker. Choosing Clemons over McCusker could be more of the same. It may not... we may never know but it's the same concept. It's taking someone to keep you a float over someone who may fly.       

We have to develop Soto and we are not doing that. If we were able to develop a Soto. We can choose to keep him for all 6 years and enjoy his production or trade him after 4 years for Gore, Abrams and Wood and now we can add Abrams and Wood to Buxton and Correa and don't need Bader and France.  If they choose to... they have given themselves a choice. 

Ryan and Ober have pretty good trade value right now. Probably our highest in value in regards to return on a trade if we choose to go that direction. 

After that... our arbitration guys that graduated from pre-arb won't return as much as we'd like to get back and in the meantime... the production from them has been just OK.  

The need for development is constant. It does not cease... I'm worried we have ceased a bit on the offensive side. Weather it's the guy chosen in the 1st or 9th round or the McCusker guy signed from an independent league or weather it's Austin Martin acquired in a trade for somebody who was about to cost a lot of money. 

Whatever the reason... the Twins are low on pre-arb players today... maybe it'll be better tomorrow but they are low on pre-arb players today and that leads to the chain of one year vets who may be great... may not be great but regardless they are gone the following year.   

 

[Mike Sixel]

I'm willing to concede some of you have convinced me it's not as bad as I thought.

And yet, I'm not excited. They don't seem to win enough games most years. And as pointed out above, where are the pre arb replacements? It's partly on them, because I don't think they trust their process enough. Wallner should not be a platoon player, for example. And they are way too slow to give up on bad veterans. 

So, yes, it's not bad. But I'm not convinced it's great either. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

 

I don’t feel that way and that’s fine. We can disagree. I think we’ve been perpetually stuck as a hopeful 85 win team if everything breaks right for the last 5 years. 

This team has been built about 3 potential stars,  Lewis, Correa and Buxton.   If all 3 are firing you have an excellent ball club.  Buxton appears to be locked in,  Correa had a good week last week,  Lewis is just coming back.  You also have France and Lee and Bader provide professional at bats to the lineup which is needed with the 3 free swingers above.  Jeffers and I think Larnach and Lee have the potential to rise up and be solid difference makers throughout the year.   If we have 2 of 3 stars show up this year throughout the season you have the makings of really good season.   

[Jocko87]

 

I listed ALL STARS, dude. ALL STARS.

#analysis

[2wins87]

I feel like it's important to point out that Falvey doesn't make draft picks, Sean Johnson does.  Johnson came up with the Twins under Terry Ryan too, so I think there was probably more continuity in the amateur scouting department when Falvey took over than there was in many other areas of the organization.

Falvey does oversee the structure and personnel, so I'm not saying he can't be without criticism, but judging him solely on draft results, or especially a single metric like percentage of homegrown WAR, is not a good way to judge his job as GM.  I get the feeling that Falvey is very much a delegator in this area too. If you want to call for heads over their drafting, Sean Johnson would have to be the first place to look.  If they fired Johnson and Falvey wasn't able to build a better scouting organization, then maybe his seat gets a lot hotter.

Overall, the team has been fairly successful since Falvey took over, which is the bottom line for him.  I'm pretty confident that their development infrastructure is significantly better than before Falvey took over too. 

Drafting and scouting-wise, I'm more ambivalent.  I don't think they have been perfect at drafting but they seem to have done a good enough job to serve the teams needs, which includes having prospect capital for trades. I do think they've had worse than average luck when it comes to prospect injuries.  They could probably be better but I don't think they've been bad.

[Major League Ready]

 

I'm willing to concede some of you have convinced me it's not as bad as I thought.

And yet, I'm not excited. They don't seem to win enough games most years. And as pointed out above, where are the pre arb replacements? It's partly on them, because I don't think they trust their process enough. Wallner should not be a platoon player, for example. And they are way too slow to give up on bad veterans. 

So, yes, it's not bad. But I'm not convinced it's great either. 

I agree with you but I will try to make you feel better with an optimistic view.....  We don't really need any replacements next year and only one (Jeffers) in 2027.  Most everyone is here until 2028.  

They can fill the voids by hitting on a couple college bats this year.  The other possibility would be if our pitching pipelines is good enough to allow us to trade established pitching over the next couple years.  As Riverbrian pointed out, that would free up money to fill holes but trading someone like Lopez / Ryan / Ober could bring back an impact piece.  Jenkin and/or Rodriguez panning out would create a surplus that would allow us to trade Wallner or Larnach.

[Riverbrian]

 

but judging him solely on draft results, or especially a single metric like percentage of homegrown WAR, is not a good way to judge his job as GM. 

I was talking with Winston Churchill just the other day about the job of a baseball general manager. 

He said, “A baseball GM needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn't happen.”

Winston is a smart guy. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I agree with you but I will try to make you feel better with an optimistic view.....  We don't really need any replacements next year and only one (Jeffers) in 2027.  Most everyone is here until 2028.  

They can fill the voids by hitting on a couple college bats this year.  The other possibility would be if our pitching pipelines is good enough to allow us to trade established pitching over the next couple years.  As Riverbrian pointed out, that would free up money to fill holes but trading someone like Lopez / Ryan / Ober could bring back an impact piece.  Jenkin and/or Rodriguez panning out would create a surplus that would allow us to trade Wallner or Larnach.

Need a catcher and first baseman next year, no? And Bader replacement. Would they use ERod that way? I doubt it. 

[DJL44]

 

Need a catcher and first baseman next year, no? And Bader replacement. Would they use ERod that way? I doubt it. 

I have Keaschall as the Bader replacement. They do need a 1B and a C next season. They've done fine signing an old 1B from free agency to fill in. Catcher is always scarce, and free agents are almost always at the tail end of their career. I hope they trade for a catcher. Honestly, they could use a catcher THIS year to replace Vazquez.

[Major League Ready]

 

Need a catcher and first baseman next year, no? And Bader replacement. Would they use ERod that way? I doubt it. 

No doubt. They need to replace Vasquez but a back-up catcher is pretty cheap in free agency.  Bader is probably replaced by Martin.  Of course, Martin is not close defensively but I dont expect (hope) Bader continues to be one of the best hitters on the team.  Erod is the wild card for me.  I love a lot about him.  Good defender and his splits are close but so far he looks mediocre this year.  He has the potential to be an outstanding replacement for Bader.  I am really hoping Erod steps it up.  Hopefully Jenkins goes through the minors very quickly.  Teach McCusker to play 1B.  Mostly kidding.  Not sure how 1B is solved.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm willing to concede some of you have convinced me it's not as bad as I thought.

And yet, I'm not excited.

We have a word for that. Mediocrity.

And it's a pretty good word for Falvey's tenure, IMO. He has been neither bad nor good. He has some wins, has plenty of losses to go with them. In the end, we consistently see a team flirting with win totals between 78 and 85 wins.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Get out of here with strawman if you aren't willing to accept that Luis Arraez and his 4.1 bWAR All Star season in 2022 was Falvey developing him. You're no different than the rest of us. You tilt the rules of your little game to make it so we have to ignore certain things so the narrative fits the rules you want it to fit. Arraez was at 3.2 bWAR the season before that. Falvey developed him. Not TR. But you don't want to admit that because it doesn't fit your narrative. You want your rules set how you want them so you don't have to fight against these obvious holes in your argument. Some would call that a strawman.

I don't care about All Star games. Because, as you said, "the Twins have to send somebody." No offense to Willi, but he's no All Star caliber player. But he has an All Star game on his resume. Good for him. But you want to set the rules in your favor so we have to ignore certain players that don't fit the narrative you want to push.

Ober has the 3.1 bWAR season. And another at 2.9. Not too shabby, but I guess it doesn't fit your arbitrary rules of having to be an All Star so he doesn't count. 

I know, I know, TR gets credit for fully developing Griffin Jax because of the 8.2 innings he threw in rookie ball under him, but if we don't follow your unserious rules and accept that Falvey actually developed him, he has a 2.8 bWAR season. Hmmm...better than that Rogers season.

Shoot, Wallner got to 2.2 bWAR last year in 75 games. May be on to something there. 

Jeffers has a 3.2 bWAR season, but no All Star game so I can't use him because you've decided the All Star game is the deciding factor on who's good and who isn't because you'd never build a strawman. Oh wait, that also means your statement about Julien being the best position player drafted and developed by Falvey is false. Now how are we supposed to take you seriously when you aren't even providing accurate information?

So, we also have Julien in there at 2.6 (not 2.8, so you're still providing bad information).

Now I'm at Arraez, Ober, Jax, Wallner, Jeffers, and Julien who Falvey deserves at least some credit for in his 8 years. That's 7 guys (adding Rooker) in 8 years. You listed 9 from the Smith and 2nd TR regimes. So, 7 in 8 years vs 9 in 9 years. 

So, again, you want to set hard and fast rules about when a guy was drafted and ignore who was in charge when they were developing. Don't go throwing around "strawman" so easily when you're spinning it pretty well yourself. You do the same thing everyone else does by tilting the rules in your favor. Don't get upset because you got called out on it. And make sure you're providing accurate information before you start questioning taking people seriously.

And I don't even think Falvey has been good enough at developing guys. Just like Smith and TR weren't. And it's why I'd fire Falvey like Smith and TR were fired.

Agreed, but to bean’s rather curt/arbitrary point, every analysis has to be scoped in order to be relevant. There hasn’t been more comprehensive analysis than MLR’s, but even MLR’s is limited in scope and still so broad it’s really hard to come to any sort of conclusion.

do a comparative to scope, evaluate, set a grade/standard, do another comparative evaluate, wash, rinse, repeat to develop a kpi dashboard and by the time you are done, Falvey was fired 5 years ago and data sets are stale.