Week in Review: Flashbacks to Failure

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of David Richard-Imagn Images

The Weekly Nutshell:
Coming off a strong home stand against sub-par competition, the Twins opened their road trip by keeping the good times rolling in Cleveland with a blowout victory on Monday. Then, much like every other modest burst of momentum they've stumbled into this year, this one evaporated almost within the blink of an eye. For the final three games of the Guardians series, the Twins looked very much like the same ineffective, bottom-tier club that collapsed late last year and bellyflopped out of the gates this year. 

After taking their drubbing in the season tip-off on Monday, Cleveland right went back to outplaying and out-executing Minnesota at every turn, as they did throughout the 2024 campaign. Following that 11-run outburst, the Twins scored six runs over the remaining three games in the series, rarely mounting much of a threat as a depleted Guardians staff carved through their lineup over and over, on the way to yet another series victory over their subservient rivals. 

Friday brought another sleepy, rainy loss in Boston, the fourth straight for Minnesota to completely erase gains from their preceding winning streak, while sinking them further in the Central standings. On Saturday and Sunday, though, the Twins managed to steady themselves by doing something that has eluded them: they won back-to-back one-run games, improving on their 1-6 record coming into the weekend.

Another mostly deflating week for the Twins ended on a light note of redemption, which has happened a few times. Will they be able to channel this one into something bigger? So far, that has not happened. Here's a recap of the week's key events as we head fully into May.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/28 through Sun, 5/4
***
Record Last Week: 3-4 (Overall: 15-20)
Run Differential Last Week: +3 (Overall: +1)
Standing: 4th Place in AL Central (7.0 GB) 

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 29 | MIN 11, CLE1: Twins Fire Opening Salvo with Blowout in Cleveland

• Offense: 17 H, 8-14 RISP

Game 30 | CLE 2, MIN 1: Delayed Start and Sudden Finish as Guards Walk It Off

• Varland: Allowed game-winning HR

Game 31 | CLE 4, MIN 2: Bullpen, Bats, Defense Let Twins Down Again in Ugly 7th

• Offense: 13 K, 1 XBH

Game 32 | CLE 4, MIN 3: Another Walk-Off Loss in Cleveland Restores Bleak Vibes

• Topa: Allowed walk-off single

Game 33 | BOS 6, MIN 1: Lineup No-Shows, Relievers Unravel After Ryan's Exit

• Bullpen: 9 H, 5 ER in 2 IP

Game 34 | MIN 4, BOS 3: Twins Fend Off Late Scares, End Skid Behind Ober

• Ober: 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 K

Game 35 | MIN 5, BOS 4: Timely Late Hitting Fuels Another One-Run Victory

• Jeffers, Bader: Game-tying and go-ahead RBIs

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NEWS & NOTES

The date of Willi Castro's eligibility to return from the injured list came and went on Thursday, and as of week's end, the utilityman still had not been activated from his injured list stint. Count this among the mounting misses for the Twins and their decision-makers, who clearly misread the severity of Castro's oblique strain as they delayed an IL placement and initially hinted he could be back within days. (injured april 16th)

Pretty low on this team's list of offenses, especially given the quality of replacements that would replace (and have replaced) Castro, but still, come on. Things are already bad enough without needlessly forcing yourself to play shorthanded. It does sound like Castro could return on Tuesday, and the Twins will certainly welcome him, even though he didn't look all that good before getting hurt.

Also in line for a potential Tuesday return: Royce Lewis, who put in four more games with the rainout-sieged Saints as part of his rehab assignment. Lewis had one hit and no walks in 17 plate appearances, for whatever that's worth, but we've seen how quickly he can kick into gear following these extended injury layoffs. The Twins would die for a classic Royce heater right about now.

In a final bit of roster news, the club re-signed right-hander Matt Canterino to a two-year minor-league contract following his release the previous week. Canterino has a long road ahead of him as he recovers from another arm surgery, but it's understood that if he ever makes it the majors he can be a force. I'm glad he's continuing his journey with the Twins.

HIGHLIGHTS

It doesn't do the Twins a whole of good when the offense can't score runs and the bullpen crumbles in close-and-late situations, but the starting rotation continues to look very good for Minnesota, delivering on its billing as a core team strength and formidable point of advantage.

Bailey Ober was flat-out brilliant on Monday in Cleveland, notching his third straight win with 7 ⅔ innings of one-run ball, and he followed that with another crisp outing in Boston on Saturday, holding the Red Sox to a one score over six frames. His ERA on the season is down to 3.72, which is incredible after giving up eight earned runs in his first turn. 

 

Joe Ryan was again excellent in his lone start of the week, allowing one run in six innings against Cleveland. He struck out eight and walked one, pushing his K/BB ratio for the season to 47-to-8. His K-BB% is fifth-best in baseball. Pablo López also looked very good on the mound in his second start off the IL, allowing two runs over 6 ⅓  in Cleveland; he has a 2.25 ERA and 2.56 FIP through five starts.

Minnesota's three-headed rotation monster has been pretty much as advertised. They lead the staff in fWAR and are anchoring an SP unit that has posted an AL-leading 2.48 ERA since April 7th. During that span the Twins have gone 12-14.

 

I hesitate to say that Kody Clemens starting three different times was a highlight – more a symptom of the roster's direly thinned-out state – and his performance was not great: 2-for-12 with three strikeouts and zero walks. However, one of those hits was a pretty big one: a home run at Fenway, in front of his dad Roger Clemens. Cool moment for Kody and also a key one for the Twins, helping them pick up a pivotal win against Boston.

 

In another generally underwhelming week for the offense, there were a few impressive performers worth calling out. Harrison Bader was 9-for-22 with a couple walks and more good defense. Ty France tallied nine hits, including a homer and a pair of doubles. Byron Buxton went 10-for-29 with a home run and another steal, starting all seven games in center field. Buxton has also begun to rein in the sky-high strikeout rate, which I take as a promising sign. 

Speaking of promising signs, we observed them from Ryan Jeffers in mid-April and now they are coming to fruition. The catcher enjoyed an excellent series in Boston, going 5-for-12 with a homer, a double, and on Sunday, a game-tying two-run single in the seventh. He's got his OPS up near .800 and is re-establishing himself as one of the best-hitting catchers in the game. Big.

LOWLIGHTS

Shoddy defensive play that looks out-of-place on a major-league baseball field was once again a prevailing narrative. Twins fielders continued to fumble makeable plays. Opposing baserunners swiped bags at will, going 9-for-11 on steal attempts. Lazy fly balls falling between defenders, grounders bouncing between confused middle infielders, wayward pickoff throws ... This road trip was another grab bag of blunders, bad decisions, botched execution, and runs given away that the offense could usually not get back.

The seventh inning of Tuesday's loss, which served as a clear turning point in the Guardians series, was a a banner example of Minnesota's porous defense letting them down. From a scoreless tie, Cleveland was able to jump to a four-run lead on yet another throwing error to first from a Twins pitcher (López), multiple stolen bases, a wild pitch, and eventually a back-breaking three-run homer off Brock Stewart. Oh, but not before Jeffers managed to nail Stewart in his elbow on an errant throw down to second base during one of those steals. (Thankfully Stewart was okay.) Cleveland capitalized on Minnesota's mistakes and used them as a launching point, winning this game and the next two to take the series and improve to 13-4 against the Twins since the start of last year.

The Boston series kicked off with more disheartening displays of self-inflicted disaster. Edouard Julien took center stage in Friday night's debacle, first getting tagged out after oversliding second on an easy steal to end the top of the seventh, then missing a minimally challenging play on a ground ball to his left in the bottom half – technically not ruled an error – that allowed two runs to score with two outs. In a flash, the score went from 1-1 to 6-1 and the utterly unresilient Twins were buried once again. Julien, who was also 2-for-16 at the plate for the week, was not seen again for the rest of the series.

 

I have little doubt that the Twins would love to send Julien to the minors. He looks even worse than he did last year, and confidence in his major-league future is plummeting. Unfortunately, the front office's hands are tied to an extent by injuries and poor roster depth. I'm sure they would also prefer not to be using Mickey Gasper at DH every other game, or starting Clemens at three different positions (2B, 3B, and RF) in the same week, but options are beyond limited with Lewis, Castro, José Miranda and Luke Keaschall all down.

While fringy contributors are obviously playing a role, Carlos Correa remains the face of the offense's failures, coming off another underwhelming week where he went 7-for-30 with a double and one RBI. Correa struck out eight times with no walks, so even the plate approach has ceased to be a source of positivity. His small offensive flurry against the Angels last weekend now looks like less of a breakthrough and more of a blip versus a bad team.

The Twins offense has been horrible, and clearly the prime culprit in this endless loop of losing, but it's kind of incredible how unable to sync up the pitching and hitting have been. The Twins have scored less than four runs in almost half their games, which is brutal, but given the strength of their staff, you'd think they would be able to win a few of those low-scoring contests here and there.

Nope. After dropping three more on the road trip, the Twins are now 0-17 this year in games where they've scored three or fewer runs, and have lost 32 straight dating back to last year. By comparison, Cleveland won five such games in the month of April alone. That insight really encapsulates the contrast between these two teams, especially in head-to-head action: The Guardians buckle down and step up in key moments to edge their opponents in tight games. They overcome their offensive deficiencies by getting things right on the margins and performing situationally. The Twins do not.

Minnesota's altogether disappointing bullpen let them down again on multiple occasions last week. In Cleveland on Tuesday, Louis Varland entered in the ninth of a tie game and quickly gave it away on a center-cut changeup that Kyle Manzardo easily swatted over the wall for a walk-off homer. Stewart looked extremely rough for the week, coughing up four earned runs in his three appearances, all of them costly in close games. The increasingly unusable Jorge Alcalá gave up three runs on five hits in one inning against the Red Sox, and you have to wonder if he's on his way out when Michael Tonkin gets activated – perhaps in the coming week.

 

The bullpen needs to lock it down. That's a given. But even in that event, the Twins aren't going to dig out of this hole unless they can find some semblance of offensive consistency and identity. Right now it just feels very difficult to figure out where that's gonna come from. 

Yes, Lewis should be back this week. Will he stay healthy and hit? Our most recent evidence sadly says no. Matt Wallner and Keaschall are out for the next month at least. Even if you wanted to get creative and draw aggressively from within the system: top prospect Walker Jenkins is down indefinitely with a mysterious ankle injury, and No. 2 prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez is once again battling thumb issues. 

“Despite our struggles right now, I still have a ton of belief in the group that’s in that room," Derek Falvey told media in Boston over the weekend. Well yeah ... what choice does he have?

TRENDING STORYLINE

Can the Twins make the great work from their rotation meaningful by leveraging it into a sprint toward contention, or is the success of Minnesota's top three starters more likely to lead to one departing this summer? 

I mentioned earlier that the Twins lead the AL (and rank second in baseball) in starting pitcher ERA since April 7th, and yet have managed to play sub-.500 ball in spite of it. Here are the other teams ranking in the top five for rotation ERA over the same span, and their records during (entering play on Sunday):

1. New York Mets (2.29): 16-8
2. Minnesota Twins (2.37): 11-14
3. Seattle Mariners (2.85): 17-5
4. Chicago Cubs (3.04): 14-8
5. Detroit Tigers (3.05): 16-9

Each of these clubs is in first place. The numbers above might not be surprising but they emphasize a fundamental truth of baseball: starting pitching wins. The Twins have been almost astonishing in their ability to defy this general rule, but it's something that gives me a glimmer of hope that they could get on a run and rattle off some wins to regain relevance. They just need the lineup and bullpen to stop completely undoing all of the starters' good work. Like we saw on Saturday and Sunday.

If that does not happen and things continue to devolve, then the exceptional performance from Minnesota's rotation takes on a different significance. In the event of a trade deadline shakeup that involves moving major pieces to reshape the Twins roster, there is no more obvious path than trading one or more of the team's rotation-fronting trio. We just established why high-quality starters are so immensely valuable for contending clubs, and Minnesota has three – all under 30, controllable for two more years, and showcasing All-Star ability.

One way or another, I fully expect at least one of López, Ryan or Ober to be starting in the playoffs this year. I hope it's with the Twins, but that flicker of hope is fading.

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins have a day off on Monday before they return to Target Field for another home stand. First they'll face a Baltimore team that has generally had their number in recent years, but is currently in last place in the rough-and-tumble AL East. Next up: the Giants, who are off to a very good start thanks largely due their outstanding pitching. 

Both of these teams, like Cleveland and Boston, were key figures in Minnesota's 2024 collapse. It was in San Francisco ahead of the All-Star break that Correa was scratched and Miranda placed on IL with heel and back injuries, setting the stage for their second-half disappearances. The Twins' season came to an end with a lifeless three-game sweeping at home from the Orioles. 

This past week didn't offer a ton in terms of exorcising demons and disproving doubters. Maybe this next one will be different?

TUESDAY, MAY 6: ORIOLES @ TWINS — LHP Cade Povich v. RHP Pablo Lopez
WEDNESDAY, MAY 7: ORIOLES @ TWINS — RHP Dean Kremer v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
THURSDAY, MAY 8: ORIOLES @ TWINS — RHP Tomoyuki Sugano v. RHP Joe Ryan
FRIDAY, MAY 9: GIANTS @ TWINS — RHP Jordan Hicks v. RHP Bailey Ober
SATURDAY, MAY 10: GIANTS @ TWINS — RHP Logan Webb v. RHP Chris Paddack
SUNDAY, MAY 11: GIANTS @ TWINS — RHP Landen Roupp v. RHP Pablo Lopez

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[BH67]

Rudderless.

[PDX Twin]

I agree with most of what you say, Nick, But I think that one sentence is missing a clarification: 

Quote

They just need the lineup and bullpen to stop completely undoing all of the starters' good work.

"Lineup" has to mean hitting and DEFENSE! Their inability to field easy balls gives the opponents 4 and sometimes 5 outs in multiple innings of games. And every walk or single by even an average-speed batter becomes a double when we can't defend against the running game.

And then I always have to go back to the general lack of "life" in the squad. "Who cares?" seems like an appropriate, non-rhetorical question. And the answer seems to be that no one in the dugout is particularly bothered about bad play. And neither is this fan, because I am paying no more attention to the Twins than are the abundant empty seats at Target Field.

[Chris Hove]

Let's beat up on those Orioles, maybe see Royce on Tuesday? Tonkin will definitely be an upgrade over Alcala. Would like to see Adam's, McCaughan, or Funderburk get a look. Go Twins!!!

[FlyingFinn]

With our starting pitching, you certainly can see the chance to go on longer winning streaks. Combine that with Buxton being healthy and running so well, it's unbelievable that we haven't won more. Lewis and Castro should help but don't bring them back too soon if they aren't healthy and ready.

[TheLeviathan]

It's truly incredible that you can have a rotation ERA of 2.37 and be 5 games under .500.  It's such a stunning indictment of how feeble our offense is.

[Blyleven2011]

Great article nick ...

It seems  when we get good pitching we get lousy hitting and defense ...

When we get better hitting the bullpen let's us down ...

No complaints on starting pitching  , and I concur 1 of the 3 starters will be traded at deadline if we're sinking ...

This team is out of sync ...

How can a fan expect the twins to win on any given day when the performances  on hitting , defense and bullpen  screws up  ...

Last 2 days the games were nail biters,  edge of your seat , cross your fingers and your toes and hope the twins win ...

The twins did win two 1 run wins  , it's a re-start again  , Baltimore and San Francisco  at home isn't going to be easy  ..

[Chris Hove]

4 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Great article nick ...

It seems  when we get good pitching we get lousy hitting and defense ...

When we get better hitting the bullpen let's us down ...

No complaints on starting pitching  , and I concur 1 of the 3 starters will be traded at deadline if we're sinking ...

This team is out of sync ...

How can a fan expect the twins to win on any given day when the performances  on hitting , defense and bullpen  screws up  ...

Last 2 days the games were nail biters,  edge of your seat , cross your fingers and your toes and hope the twins win ...

The twins did win two 1 run wins  , it's a re-start again  , Baltimore and San Francisco  at home isn't going to be easy  ..

LFG!!!! Great input.

[Chris Hove]

Good to get some guys back.  

[tony&rodney]

Royce Lewis has not looked good at all playing at AAA, but we have seen guys come back from crappy rehabs before to hit at the MLB level. Hopefully Lewis isn't as overmatched against Baltimore pitching as he was versus Colombus arms. 

Julien seems to take his woes at the plate into the field. When he is getting on base, having good at bats, and swinging well he does fine in the field. The play or misplay Friday night by Julien was pretty sad. Hard to see where his career goes with the Twins. He isn't really depth so one has to wonder if he could bring back a lottery ticket from some team.

The starters look good and the bats seem to be edging forward. May will be a big month for the Twins.

[Marcus.Mahlen]

Hey Nick just an idea to add the Twins pythag expected record each week as well to this summary. Nice job.

[Peter]

This past series with Boston hopefully will be turning point in season!!! I’m thinking 4-2 this week with dreams on 5-1. Just win series!!! If we do getting over .500 will happen along with getting back in division race.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

It's truly incredible that you can have a rotation ERA of 2.37 and be 5 games under .500.  It's such a stunning indictment of how feeble our offense is.

Earned runs. The unearned ones don’t count.

the offense is super pathetic, but so is the fielding

[mikelink45]

What you emphasize comes back to the mantra I have had for the entire season - get one more inning out of every SP.  The third time around for them is still better than over using Varland, wondering what Stewart and Jax will do on any given day, or (shudder) seeing Alcala come in.  The best BP in the league is not doing its job.  Duran is getting through the innings, but I have not seen a clean inning if a while.  We need a new strategy and I sill advocate bringing in Matthews and Festa and having them piggyback with the starters who are only going to go 4 - 5 innings.  We have to do something.  

No mention of McCusker 

[rv78]

13 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

It's truly incredible that you can have a rotation ERA of 2.37 and be 5 games under .500.  It's such a stunning indictment of how feeble our offense is.

Not just the offense but the bullpen as well. Analytics should be telling Rocco to use his starters longer since they are the better option. Won't happen since his perfect world uses 4 or 5 pitchers every game. win or lose.

[Brandon]

The Twins starting rotation is currently the 1987 version of Nolan Ryan.  he led the league in ERA 2.76 and went 8 - 16 with 270 strike outs in 211.67 innings.  

[TheLeviathan]

5 hours ago, rv78 said:

Not just the offense but the bullpen as well. Analytics should be telling Rocco to use his starters longer since they are the better option. Won't happen since his perfect world uses 4 or 5 pitchers every game. win or lose.

Look....that's what everyone does now.  Pitchers overthrow and the only way to keep them even remotely healthy by the time they're a pro is to control their innings/pitch count.

This isn't a Rocco/Twins thing.  This is league wide as a result of a systemic training issue I'm not sure will ever change.

[rv78]

5 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Look....that's what everyone does now.  Pitchers overthrow and the only way to keep them even remotely healthy by the time they're a pro is to control their innings/pitch count.

This isn't a Rocco/Twins thing.  This is league wide as a result of a systemic training issue I'm not sure will ever change.

Sure, everyone jumps in a lake because everyone else does it, so everyone drowns. The smart one does something different that sets them apart from the rest. That's how you get better. But yeah, I understand Rocco won't change because that's what everyone else is doing. Even if it doesn't work or there is a different way that would have better results. No point in trying. Pitchers can't even go 100 pitches in a game anymore or their arm will implode. Biggest reason for it is not building up arm strength by throwing that many pitches regularly. 30 years from now they'll be down to 3 innings and 50 pitches max because of the reasoning you use. We've gone from pitchers regularly throwing over 300 innings a year down to 200 a year and the majority of todays pitchers can't even do that. When Bert Blyleven was in the booth he couldn't understand pulling a starter at anytime in a game when they were pitching well. So he and everyone else who thinks the same thing is wrong..... just because that's what everyone else does. Okay. Judging by the amount of pitchers that get injured every year now compared to how many got hurt 50 or 60 years ago, I'd say the amount of pampering and babying todays pitchers get from all of the early pulling in games to save their arms isn't working.

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Sure, everyone jumps in a lake because everyone else does it, so everyone drowns. The smart one does something different that sets them apart from the rest. That's how you get better.

Don't you think at least one team would have tried this by now and proved to the rest of the league that they're the "smart one"? Dumb groupthink can absolutely be a thing keeping teams stubborn, but methinks if a team thought it'd give them a competitive advantage they'd try it.

Isn't the Rice University notorious for having their pitchers go excessive innings / no pitch counts and none of their prospects can reach the majors healthy? Or so I've heard.

[USAFChief]

8 hours ago, Danchat said:

Don't you think at least one team would have tried this by now and proved to the rest of the league that they're the "smart one"? Dumb groupthink can absolutely be a thing keeping teams stubborn, but methinks if a team thought it'd give them a competitive advantage they'd try it.

Isn't the Rice University notorious for having their pitchers go excessive innings / no pitch counts and none of their prospects can reach the majors healthy? Or so I've heard.

Teams did it for 150 years 

They did it by training their pitchers to do it. 

[DJL44]

36 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Teams did it for 150 years 

They did it by training their pitchers to do it. 

Those pitchers threw slower and had to rely on hitting spots and good defense. Do you think pitch-to-contact is a good strategy with the current Twins defense?

[TheLeviathan]

11 hours ago, rv78 said:

Sure, everyone jumps in a lake because everyone else does it, so everyone drowns. The smart one does something different that sets them apart from the rest. That's how you get better. But yeah, I understand Rocco won't change because that's what everyone else is doing. Even if it doesn't work or there is a different way that would have better results. No point in trying. Pitchers can't even go 100 pitches in a game anymore or their arm will implode. Biggest reason for it is not building up arm strength by throwing that many pitches regularly. 30 years from now they'll be down to 3 innings and 50 pitches max because of the reasoning you use. We've gone from pitchers regularly throwing over 300 innings a year down to 200 a year and the majority of todays pitchers can't even do that. When Bert Blyleven was in the booth he couldn't understand pulling a starter at anytime in a game when they were pitching well. So he and everyone else who thinks the same thing is wrong..... just because that's what everyone else does. Okay. Judging by the amount of pitchers that get injured every year now compared to how many got hurt 50 or 60 years ago, I'd say the amount of pampering and babying todays pitchers get from all of the early pulling in games to save their arms isn't working.

Rocco isn't deciding that any more than Dave Roberts is.  (You know, the guys who won the WS and average less starter innings than we did in 2024)  It's an organizational/health decision.  One based on human anatomy and the ability to endure the current level of elite pitching.

This isn't about build-up.  It's not about guts or try hard.  It's not about pampering and babying.  It's about pitchers are throwing with more torque and force in order to get hitters out and the human body cannot endure that level of stress to the same degree.

Zero major league managers have control over this paradigm shift. No one is going to allow it to change.  Players don't want it.  Agents don't want it.  Teams don't want it.  You can "Old Man Yells at Cloud" all day long and reality is still going to be there when you get back.

[TheLeviathan]

55 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Those pitchers threw slower and had to rely on hitting spots and good defense. Do you think pitch-to-contact is a good strategy with the current Twins defense?

Definitely agree about them throwing slower.  But pitch to contact went out of phase across the league because hitters are big enough, strong enough, and skilled enough to overcome it.  A decent chunk of the "three outcomes" baseball is due to the evolution of athletes we have today.  

[TheLeviathan]

9 hours ago, Danchat said:

Don't you think at least one team would have tried this by now and proved to the rest of the league that they're the "smart one"? Dumb groupthink can absolutely be a thing keeping teams stubborn, but methinks if a team thought it'd give them a competitive advantage they'd try it.

Isn't the Rice University notorious for having their pitchers go excessive innings / no pitch counts and none of their prospects can reach the majors healthy? Or so I've heard.

Even if they wanted to try that, the NCAA has restrictions on pitch counts and usage.  Teams could try that, but they would likely get enormous pushback from players and agents.

Not to mention this paradigm shift would have to be enforced as far back as middle school/high school.  People can downvote and argue until they're blue in the face - reality is what it is.  Teams are doing this as part of their investment in players.  Players are wanting this as part of their investment in themselves.

Like most things in sports - 1960, 1980, 1990....pick your favorite "back in my day" and it ain't coming back.  

[bean5302]

10 hours ago, Danchat said:

Don't you think at least one team would have tried this by now and proved to the rest of the league that they're the "smart one"? Dumb groupthink can absolutely be a thing keeping teams stubborn, but methinks if a team thought it'd give them a competitive advantage they'd try it.

Isn't the Rice University notorious for having their pitchers go excessive innings / no pitch counts and none of their prospects can reach the majors healthy? Or so I've heard.

 

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Teams did it for 150 years 

They did it by training their pitchers to do it. 

 

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Those pitchers threw slower and had to rely on hitting spots and good defense. Do you think pitch-to-contact is a good strategy with the current Twins defense?

Rice University pitchers are not outliers. While Rice University might be above average, I didn't see anything suggesting this legendary arm breaker myth going around TD.

Canterino was like #65 in innings pitched for NCAA baseball the year he was drafted. His pitch counts were exceeded by many other players as well. In example, the Angels' Reid Detmers had higher pitch counts and more innings than Canterino despite being younger.

[The Great Hambino]

Pitchers throw harder and for fewer innings for the same reason that even the world record holder in the 400m dash can't beat a good high school team's 4x100m time

Maxing out on velocity, followed by waves of relief pitchers doing the same, coupled with everyone throwing breaking pitches designed in a lab, has proven to be more effective than relying on one workhorse to go the full nine.

And this isn't a new phenomenon.  While the rate has increased a little more quickly recently, the average number of pitchers used in a game has grown fairly steadily over time (as shown here).

In 1901 the average was barely over 1 per game.  It crossed 2 per game in 1946, 3 per game in 1990, 4 per game in 2015.  It peaked in 2020/2021 at over 4.4, but they put the reigns on that with the 3 batter rule and it has settled back to 4.28 per game this year.   

So yeah, pitchers don't go as long as they used to.  They also used to have a dead ball, face lineups where half the hitters struggled to hit the ball out of the infield, and play in parks with dimensions so deep they'd have things like bullpens and monuments in fair territory.   Pitcher usage has evolved as the game has evolved.  This isn't new.

And it's not like heavier reliance on more relievers had handicapped run prevention.  Removing the steroid era and the parts of the 19th century where they were playing pseudo-fastpitch softball with no fielders' gloves, the era with the highest runs per game was the 1930s, when the average pitchers per game was still less than 2 and teams hadn't yet caught on that fresh relief pitchers are more effective than tired starters.  Historically, we are in a below-average run-scoring environment.

Having said that, I intentionally used the term "more effective" instead of "better".    Some of the romance of baseball gets lost with this more efficient but less aesthetically pleasing approach.  It's part of the dichotomy of analytics.  Its use has increased effectiveness in all sports.  But while in other sports it has made games more exciting (more passing, more going for it on 4th down, more going for two in football), it has arguably made the game more boring (three true outcomes, less small ball, the parade of interchangeable relievers). But the genie is out of the bottle. You can't make a rule telling pitchers "don't throw so hard."  It would take extreme measures like limiting pitching staffs to 10 pitchers or  requiring a starter to throw x pitches/innings/batters before a reliever can come in (must be replaced by a position player or lose your DH or something equally insane until the benchmark is reached).  The chances of any of those things happening are nil.

I don't know how to fix it, and I'm pretty sure baseball doesn't know how to fix it either.

[TheLeviathan]

3 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

Pitchers throw harder and for fewer innings for the same reason that even the world record holder in the 400m dash can't beat a good high school team's 4x100m time

Maxing out on velocity, followed by waves of relief pitchers doing the same, coupled with everyone throwing breaking pitches designed in a lab, has proven to be more effective than relying on one workhorse to go the full nine.

And this isn't a new phenomenon.  While the rate has increased a little more quickly recently, the average number of pitchers used in a game has grown fairly steadily over time (as shown here).

In 1901 the average was barely over 1 per game.  It crossed 2 per game in 1946, 3 per game in 1990, 4 per game in 2015.  It peaked in 2020/2021 at over 4.4, but they put the reigns on that with the 3 batter rule and it has settled back to 4.28 per game this year.   

So yeah, pitchers don't go as long as they used to.  They also used to have a dead ball, face lineups where half the hitters struggled to hit the ball out of the infield, and play in parks with dimensions so deep they'd have things like bullpens and monuments in fair territory.   Pitcher usage has evolved as the game has evolved.  This isn't new.

And it's not like heavier reliance on more relievers had handicapped run prevention.  Removing the steroid era and the parts of the 19th century where they were playing pseudo-fastpitch softball with no fielders' gloves, the era with the highest runs per game was the 1930s, when the average pitchers per game was still less than 2 and teams hadn't yet caught on that fresh relief pitchers are more effective than tired starters.  Historically, we are in a below-average run-scoring environment.

Having said that, I intentionally used the term "more effective" instead of "better".    Some of the romance of baseball gets lost with this more efficient but less aesthetically pleasing approach.  It's part of the dichotomy of analytics.  Its use has increased effectiveness in all sports.  But while in other sports it has made games more exciting (more passing, more going for it on 4th down, more going for two in football), it has arguably made the game more boring (three true outcomes, less small ball, the parade of interchangeable relievers). But the genie is out of the bottle. You can't make a rule telling pitchers "don't throw so hard."  It would take extreme measures like limiting pitching staffs to 10 pitchers or  requiring a starter to throw x pitches/innings/batters before a reliever can come in (must be replaced by a position player or lose your DH or something equally insane until the benchmark is reached).  The chances of any of those things happening are nil.

I don't know how to fix it, and I'm pretty sure baseball doesn't know how to fix it either.

This is an excellent post but I really appreciate the second to last paragraph.  More effective vs. better as a distinction is exactly the right way to go.

I don't begrudge people for missing the past when starters would go longer.  It's totally ok to miss the aesthetic of the past.  I miss those days too (at least as a viewing experience)! 

However....my personal preference is not a valid argument against the very real nature of what it takes to be an effective pitcher in today's game.  And that reality is the one all teams are operating in, including the Twins.  There is no putting the genie back in the bottle, so making arguments of that sort to attack a FO, a manager, an agent, a player, etc. is just being purposefully obtuse.