Week in Review: Flashbacks to Failure

The Weekly Nutshell:
Coming off a strong home stand against sub-par competition, the Twins opened their road trip by keeping the good times rolling in Cleveland with a blowout victory on Monday. Then, much like every other modest burst of momentum they've stumbled into this year, this one evaporated almost within the blink of an eye. For the final three games of the Guardians series, the Twins looked very much like the same ineffective, bottom-tier club that collapsed late last year and bellyflopped out of the gates this year. 

After taking their drubbing in the season tip-off on Monday, Cleveland right went back to outplaying and out-executing Minnesota at every turn, as they did throughout the 2024 campaign. Following that 11-run outburst, the Twins scored six runs over the remaining three games in the series, rarely mounting much of a threat as a depleted Guardians staff carved through their lineup over and over, on the way to yet another series victory over their subservient rivals. 

Friday brought another sleepy, rainy loss in Boston, the fourth straight for Minnesota to completely erase gains from their preceding winning streak, while sinking them further in the Central standings. On Saturday and Sunday, though, the Twins managed to steady themselves by doing something that has eluded them: they won back-to-back one-run games, improving on their 1-6 record coming into the weekend.

Another mostly deflating week for the Twins ended on a light note of redemption, which has happened a few times. Will they be able to channel this one into something bigger? So far, that has not happened. Here's a recap of the week's key events as we head fully into May.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/28 through Sun, 5/4
***
Record Last Week: 3-4 (Overall: 15-20)
Run Differential Last Week: +3 (Overall: +1)
Standing: 4th Place in AL Central (7.0 GB) 

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 29 | MIN 11, CLE1: Twins Fire Opening Salvo with Blowout in Cleveland

• Offense: 17 H, 8-14 RISP

Game 30 | CLE 2, MIN 1: Delayed Start and Sudden Finish as Guards Walk It Off

• Varland: Allowed game-winning HR

Game 31 | CLE 4, MIN 2: Bullpen, Bats, Defense Let Twins Down Again in Ugly 7th

• Offense: 13 K, 1 XBH

Game 32 | CLE 4, MIN 3: Another Walk-Off Loss in Cleveland Restores Bleak Vibes

• Topa: Allowed walk-off single

Game 33 | BOS 6, MIN 1: Lineup No-Shows, Relievers Unravel After Ryan's Exit

• Bullpen: 9 H, 5 ER in 2 IP

Game 34 | MIN 4, BOS 3: Twins Fend Off Late Scares, End Skid Behind Ober

• Ober: 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 K

Game 35 | MIN 5, BOS 4: Timely Late Hitting Fuels Another One-Run Victory

• Jeffers, Bader: Game-tying and go-ahead RBIs

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NEWS & NOTES

The date of Willi Castro's eligibility to return from the injured list came and went on Thursday, and as of week's end, the utilityman still had not been activated from his injured list stint. Count this among the mounting misses for the Twins and their decision-makers, who clearly misread the severity of Castro's oblique strain as they delayed an IL placement and initially hinted he could be back within days. (injured april 16th)

Pretty low on this team's list of offenses, especially given the quality of replacements that would replace (and have replaced) Castro, but still, come on. Things are already bad enough without needlessly forcing yourself to play shorthanded. It does sound like Castro could return on Tuesday, and the Twins will certainly welcome him, even though he didn't look all that good before getting hurt.

Also in line for a potential Tuesday return: Royce Lewis, who put in four more games with the rainout-sieged Saints as part of his rehab assignment. Lewis had one hit and no walks in 17 plate appearances, for whatever that's worth, but we've seen how quickly he can kick into gear following these extended injury layoffs. The Twins would die for a classic Royce heater right about now.

In a final bit of roster news, the club re-signed right-hander Matt Canterino to a two-year minor-league contract following his release the previous week. Canterino has a long road ahead of him as he recovers from another arm surgery, but it's understood that if he ever makes it the majors he can be a force. I'm glad he's continuing his journey with the Twins.

HIGHLIGHTS

It doesn't do the Twins a whole of good when the offense can't score runs and the bullpen crumbles in close-and-late situations, but the starting rotation continues to look very good for Minnesota, delivering on its billing as a core team strength and formidable point of advantage.

Bailey Ober was flat-out brilliant on Monday in Cleveland, notching his third straight win with 7 ⅔ innings of one-run ball, and he followed that with another crisp outing in Boston on Saturday, holding the Red Sox to a one score over six frames. His ERA on the season is down to 3.72, which is incredible after giving up eight earned runs in his first turn. 

Joe Ryan was again excellent in his lone start of the week, allowing one run in six innings against Cleveland. He struck out eight and walked one, pushing his K/BB ratio for the season to 47-to-8. His K-BB% is fifth-best in baseball. Pablo López also looked very good on the mound in his second start off the IL, allowing two runs over 6 ⅓  in Cleveland; he has a 2.25 ERA and 2.56 FIP through five starts.

Minnesota's three-headed rotation monster has been pretty much as advertised. They lead the staff in fWAR and are anchoring an SP unit that has posted an AL-leading 2.48 ERA since April 7th. During that span the Twins have gone 12-14.

I hesitate to say that Kody Clemens starting three different times was a highlight – more a symptom of the roster's direly thinned-out state – and his performance was not great: 2-for-12 with three strikeouts and zero walks. However, one of those hits was a pretty big one: a home run at Fenway, in front of his dad Roger Clemens. Cool moment for Kody and also a key one for the Twins, helping them pick up a pivotal win against Boston.

In another generally underwhelming week for the offense, there were a few impressive performers worth calling out. Harrison Bader was 9-for-22 with a couple walks and more good defense. Ty France tallied nine hits, including a homer and a pair of doubles. Byron Buxton went 10-for-29 with a home run and another steal, starting all seven games in center field. Buxton has also begun to rein in the sky-high strikeout rate, which I take as a promising sign. 

Speaking of promising signs, we observed them from Ryan Jeffers in mid-April and now they are coming to fruition. The catcher enjoyed an excellent series in Boston, going 5-for-12 with a homer, a double, and on Sunday, a game-tying two-run single in the seventh. He's got his OPS up near .800 and is re-establishing himself as one of the best-hitting catchers in the game. Big.

LOWLIGHTS

Shoddy defensive play that looks out-of-place on a major-league baseball field was once again a prevailing narrative. Twins fielders continued to fumble makeable plays. Opposing baserunners swiped bags at will, going 9-for-11 on steal attempts. Lazy fly balls falling between defenders, grounders bouncing between confused middle infielders, wayward pickoff throws ... This road trip was another grab bag of blunders, bad decisions, botched execution, and runs given away that the offense could usually not get back.

The seventh inning of Tuesday's loss, which served as a clear turning point in the Guardians series, was a a banner example of Minnesota's porous defense letting them down. From a scoreless tie, Cleveland was able to jump to a four-run lead on yet another throwing error to first from a Twins pitcher (López), multiple stolen bases, a wild pitch, and eventually a back-breaking three-run homer off Brock Stewart. Oh, but not before Jeffers managed to nail Stewart in his elbow on an errant throw down to second base during one of those steals. (Thankfully Stewart was okay.) Cleveland capitalized on Minnesota's mistakes and used them as a launching point, winning this game and the next two to take the series and improve to 13-4 against the Twins since the start of last year.

The Boston series kicked off with more disheartening displays of self-inflicted disaster. Edouard Julien took center stage in Friday night's debacle, first getting tagged out after oversliding second on an easy steal to end the top of the seventh, then missing a minimally challenging play on a ground ball to his left in the bottom half – technically not ruled an error – that allowed two runs to score with two outs. In a flash, the score went from 1-1 to 6-1 and the utterly unresilient Twins were buried once again. Julien, who was also 2-for-16 at the plate for the week, was not seen again for the rest of the series.

I have little doubt that the Twins would love to send Julien to the minors. He looks even worse than he did last year, and confidence in his major-league future is plummeting. Unfortunately, the front office's hands are tied to an extent by injuries and poor roster depth. I'm sure they would also prefer not to be using Mickey Gasper at DH every other game, or starting Clemens at three different positions (2B, 3B, and RF) in the same week, but options are beyond limited with Lewis, Castro, José Miranda and Luke Keaschall all down.

While fringy contributors are obviously playing a role, Carlos Correa remains the face of the offense's failures, coming off another underwhelming week where he went 7-for-30 with a double and one RBI. Correa struck out eight times with no walks, so even the plate approach has ceased to be a source of positivity. His small offensive flurry against the Angels last weekend now looks like less of a breakthrough and more of a blip versus a bad team.

The Twins offense has been horrible, and clearly the prime culprit in this endless loop of losing, but it's kind of incredible how unable to sync up the pitching and hitting have been. The Twins have scored less than four runs in almost half their games, which is brutal, but given the strength of their staff, you'd think they would be able to win a few of those low-scoring contests here and there.

Nope. After dropping three more on the road trip, the Twins are now 0-17 this year in games where they've scored three or fewer runs, and have lost 32 straight dating back to last year. By comparison, Cleveland won five such games in the month of April alone. That insight really encapsulates the contrast between these two teams, especially in head-to-head action: The Guardians buckle down and step up in key moments to edge their opponents in tight games. They overcome their offensive deficiencies by getting things right on the margins and performing situationally. The Twins do not.

Minnesota's altogether disappointing bullpen let them down again on multiple occasions last week. In Cleveland on Tuesday, Louis Varland entered in the ninth of a tie game and quickly gave it away on a center-cut changeup that Kyle Manzardo easily swatted over the wall for a walk-off homer. Stewart looked extremely rough for the week, coughing up four earned runs in his three appearances, all of them costly in close games. The increasingly unusable Jorge Alcalá gave up three runs on five hits in one inning against the Red Sox, and you have to wonder if he's on his way out when Michael Tonkin gets activated – perhaps in the coming week.

The bullpen needs to lock it down. That's a given. But even in that event, the Twins aren't going to dig out of this hole unless they can find some semblance of offensive consistency and identity. Right now it just feels very difficult to figure out where that's gonna come from. 

Yes, Lewis should be back this week. Will he stay healthy and hit? Our most recent evidence sadly says no. Matt Wallner and Keaschall are out for the next month at least. Even if you wanted to get creative and draw aggressively from within the system: top prospect Walker Jenkins is down indefinitely with a mysterious ankle injury, and No. 2 prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez is once again battling thumb issues. 

“Despite our struggles right now, I still have a ton of belief in the group that’s in that room," Derek Falvey told media in Boston over the weekend. Well yeah ... what choice does he have?

TRENDING STORYLINE

Can the Twins make the great work from their rotation meaningful by leveraging it into a sprint toward contention, or is the success of Minnesota's top three starters more likely to lead to one departing this summer? 

I mentioned earlier that the Twins lead the AL (and rank second in baseball) in starting pitcher ERA since April 7th, and yet have managed to play sub-.500 ball in spite of it. Here are the other teams ranking in the top five for rotation ERA over the same span, and their records during (entering play on Sunday):

1. New York Mets (2.29): 16-8
2. Minnesota Twins (2.37): 11-14
3. Seattle Mariners (2.85): 17-5
4. Chicago Cubs (3.04): 14-8
5. Detroit Tigers (3.05): 16-9

Each of these clubs is in first place. The numbers above might not be surprising but they emphasize a fundamental truth of baseball: starting pitching wins. The Twins have been almost astonishing in their ability to defy this general rule, but it's something that gives me a glimmer of hope that they could get on a run and rattle off some wins to regain relevance. They just need the lineup and bullpen to stop completely undoing all of the starters' good work. Like we saw on Saturday and Sunday.

If that does not happen and things continue to devolve, then the exceptional performance from Minnesota's rotation takes on a different significance. In the event of a trade deadline shakeup that involves moving major pieces to reshape the Twins roster, there is no more obvious path than trading one or more of the team's rotation-fronting trio. We just established why high-quality starters are so immensely valuable for contending clubs, and Minnesota has three – all under 30, controllable for two more years, and showcasing All-Star ability.

One way or another, I fully expect at least one of López, Ryan or Ober to be starting in the playoffs this year. I hope it's with the Twins, but that flicker of hope is fading.

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins have a day off on Monday before they return to Target Field for another home stand. First they'll face a Baltimore team that has generally had their number in recent years, but is currently in last place in the rough-and-tumble AL East. Next up: the Giants, who are off to a very good start thanks largely due their outstanding pitching. 

Both of these teams, like Cleveland and Boston, were key figures in Minnesota's 2024 collapse. It was in San Francisco ahead of the All-Star break that Correa was scratched and Miranda placed on IL with heel and back injuries, setting the stage for their second-half disappearances. The Twins' season came to an end with a lifeless three-game sweeping at home from the Orioles. 

This past week didn't offer a ton in terms of exorcising demons and disproving doubters. Maybe this next one will be different?

TUESDAY, MAY 6: ORIOLES @ TWINS — LHP Cade Povich v. RHP Pablo Lopez
WEDNESDAY, MAY 7: ORIOLES @ TWINS — RHP Dean Kremer v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
THURSDAY, MAY 8: ORIOLES @ TWINS — RHP Tomoyuki Sugano v. RHP Joe Ryan
FRIDAY, MAY 9: GIANTS @ TWINS — RHP Jordan Hicks v. RHP Bailey Ober
SATURDAY, MAY 10: GIANTS @ TWINS — RHP Logan Webb v. RHP Chris Paddack
SUNDAY, MAY 11: GIANTS @ TWINS — RHP Landen Roupp v. RHP Pablo Lopez