Guardians 4, Twins 3: Yet Another Wet Slap

[Vanimal46]

23 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Yeah, how so many fans deluded themselves into thinking this team was a quasi contender. This team never had any positional depth. Even if the roster was fully healthy, they're still rostering, and therefore playing, the likes of Keirsey and Gasper and regularly starting replacement level players like Julien, Miranda, Larnach, and France. 

How the projections didn't see that massive lack of depth and get to 77-78 wins is a puzzle. 

It was pretty easy to see. I’m sure I’m not the only one either not present on the site, or staying quiet during spring training because I didn’t want to be the Debbie Downer during optimism season. 

Edit: Shoutout to the early detectives like @DJL44that did say if guys like Gasper and Keirsey made the opening day lineup it would be disastrous during the offseason. 

[KirbyDome89]

30 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Have you missed the perpetual injuries he’s had…….hip - knee - hip - knee - knee - etc. - etc……… it’s not that wild.

Single digit steals playing close to 100 games in each of the last three seasons (only 61 games in 2021) while remaining one of the fastest players in baseball actually is kinda wild. 

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, jkcarew said:

Sometimes you gotta feel a bit sorry for the lads. Bullpen did their job, a lot of good at-bats…but not enough came with RISP. Got the ground ball that you need in the 10th, and it finds the whole. It was a less hopeless, but more frustrating, way to not score enough. Well, at least the flight to Boston is a short one.

Remember the movie Major League  ???

In the movie didn't they change planes to a crappy one to try and destroy moral  , we'll maybe they should take the plane away from  the twins players and make them ride a bus  like they did in the minors ...

It might remind them how hard they worked to get to the Major Leagues and spark some life and momentum  ...

I didn't catch much of the game because I was driving on the road , caught the lousy ending  ...

[IndianaTwin]

30 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Fair questions. The play was not close. And Lee literally did not move at second base, which, either way, was not good baserunning.

Clemens struck out on 3 pitches so I guess it’s pointless to criticize it. But I’d still like the chances of scoring with a runner still at third less than two outs, even if it’s a poor hitter. Certainly seem like a better chance of scoring than sending a slow runner with nobody out. Byron, maybe.

At the risk of breaking a TD rule by injecting math into the discussion, but using the defense that this is a game RECAP rather than a game THREAD…

There’s three primary outcomes on this play: a) defense throws home and runner is out, resulting in runners on 1st and 2nd with one out; b) defense throws home and runner is safe, resulting in a run scored AND runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs; and c) defense lets the runner score and gets the out at first, resulting in a run scored AND a runner on second with one out. This ignores the goofy scenarios where the fielder short hops the catcher, the runner is safe and then the defense throws the ball around the infield and everybody keeps moving up or the case where the defense throws home, gets the out and then manages to get a second out at third on the late breaking runner from second (followed by a third out when the batter gets nailed trying to take second amidst the mayhem), yada, yada. Or even the more simple variations like a fielder throwing it away. 

This is from a 2022 chart and I don’t know how much it changes from year to year, but the remaining run expectancy on a) is 1.00; on b) is 1.55 PLUS the run that scored, so 2.55, right? and c) 0.72 (plus the run that is scored, so 1.72?). (And I get that with the way the Twins have hit this year, you have to reduce each of these numbers by roughly half. 😡)

Can you or someone else take it from here? What percentage of the time does a runner need to be safe at home to make it a risk worth taking?

[NYCTK]

26 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

MN has pretty good SP

This is very true. And a good example of actual depth. Not only the five starters with a pretty decent 4 and 5 in Woods Richardson and Paddack but two major league quality starters in AAA that most team would be comfortable in the rotation plus plenty of options for spot starts like Dobnak and others. 

I think maybe part of the projection that explains some of the difference is the Best Bullpen In Baseball projections. That sort of projection is both hard to make and impossible to really predict due to just wild shifts in WPA for even quality relievers. I also didn't see the Twins bullpen as very deep, meaning extending into AAA. I still really like Jax and Duran and Coulombe and mostly Sands but...Blewett and MacCaughen? OK. Sure why not. 

[USAFChief]

27 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

At the risk of breaking a TD rule by injecting math into the discussion, but using the defense that this is a game RECAP rather than a game THREAD…

There’s three primary outcomes on this play: a) defense throws home and runner is out, resulting in runners on 1st and 2nd with one out; b) defense throws home and runner is safe, resulting in a run scored AND runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs; and c) defense lets the runner score and gets the out at first, resulting in a run scored AND a runner on second with one out. This ignores the goofy scenarios where the fielder short hops the catcher, the runner is safe and then the defense throws the ball around the infield and everybody keeps moving up or the case where the defense throws home, gets the out and then manages to get a second out at third on the late breaking runner from second (followed by a third out when the batter gets nailed trying to take second amidst the mayhem), yada, yada. Or even the more simple variations like a fielder throwing it away. 

This is from a 2022 chart and I don’t know how much it changes from year to year, but the remaining run expectancy on a) is 1.00; on b) is 1.55 PLUS the run that scored, so 2.55, right? and c) 0.72 (plus the run that is scored, so 1.72?). (And I get that with the way the Twins have hit this year, you have to reduce each of these numbers by roughly half. 😡)

Can you or someone else take it from here? What percentage of the time does a runner need to be safe at home to make it a risk worth taking?

There are several other possible outcomes if Lee breaks for third on contact when France breaks for home.

The two most likely:

If the ground ball is to third, as in this case, and the third baseman throws home, we end up with 1st and 3rd, one out. Still can score a run without a hit.

If the 3rd baseman elects the easy out and simply waits to tag Lee, we score a run.

If you're gonna run the contact play in that situation,  both runners need to run.

I don't know who effed up in this case, whether the contact play was on. I suspect it was, with Clemens and Vazquez due up.

I do know that baserunning is a pretty consistent team weskness. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

I was following the radio broadcast and they commented about Lee not advancing to third on the play where France got thrown out at home. To me, that sounds like one of the two missing a sign. Did the TV guys have any commentary on that? 

They've usually run the contact play, but given the nature of who the two runners were and that Lee didn't advance, is there any likelihood they didn't have it on and France either missed a sign or went on his own? It's also plausible that the (almost) rookie either missed the sign or wasn't watching the runner in front of him.  

Can I take a crack at it? I think it also comes down to Lee did not advance because he was not expecting France to try to advance. 

The rule of thumb has always been, “If it’s hard hit to the left side of the infield, hold your base until it goes through.” This is how kids have been coached if they are on second or third, no force play, and less than two outs, for hundreds of years. 🙂

So whether Lee missed a sign or France hallucinated a sign that wasn’t there, Lee’s instinct kicked in once the ball was hit, and Lee expected France to stay at third. So, Lee stayed at second.

At this point we can talk about decisions being taken out of players hands since the StatCast era came in, no more two-strike approaches at the plate, no more rogue base stealing or baserunning decisions being made out there (thankfully that is now changing the past couple seasons), but that’s a whole nuther discussion. 

So that’s my twist on it. 

There’s no way France or any other average runner breaks for home on that ground ball on their own accord, 10-15 years ago. 

 

 

[Blyleven2011]

12 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

 

I do know that baserunning is a pretty consistent team weakness. 

And the weaknesses are caused by manager and coaches not implementing fundamentals  ...

Has Rocco lost the team  , it's has to be aweful playing this bad and think otherwise  ...

[IndianaTwin]

29 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

There are several other possible outcomes if Lee breaks for third on contact when France breaks for home.

The two most likely:

If the ground ball is to third, as in this case, and the third baseman throws home, we end up with 1st and 3rd, one out. Still can score a run without a hit.

If the 3rd baseman elects the easy out and simply waits to tag Lee, we score a run.

If you're gonna run the contact play in that situation,  both runners need to run.

I don't know who effed up in this case, whether the contact play was on. I suspect it was, with Clemens and Vazquez due up.

I do know that baserunning is a pretty consistent team weskness. 

Oops. Typo. Your first one is what my a) was intended to be, which makes me wonder which run expectancy number I quoted. Maybe my brain cramp was because what I typed is what actually DID happen thanks to Lee’s not running.

I hadn’t thought of your second one — that makes sense as well. Probably a little less likely, but very plausible. Thinking of that one, another would be 3B gives up the run, runner realizes he’s going to run into an out and retreats, 3B goes to second to try getting the lead runner, but runner gets back in time. Starting to head towards the esoteric, but it’s at least a little plausible (particularly if the Twins are on defense 🤣). 

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Maybe my brain cramp was because ...

...one too many edibles?

[Doc Lenz]

50 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

At the risk of breaking a TD rule by injecting math into the discussion, but using the defense that this is a game RECAP rather than a game THREAD…

There’s three primary outcomes on this play: a) defense throws home and runner is out, resulting in runners on 1st and 2nd with one out; b) defense throws home and runner is safe, resulting in a run scored AND runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs; and c) defense lets the runner score and gets the out at first, resulting in a run scored AND a runner on second with one out. This ignores the goofy scenarios where the fielder short hops the catcher, the runner is safe and then the defense throws the ball around the infield and everybody keeps moving up or the case where the defense throws home, gets the out and then manages to get a second out at third on the late breaking runner from second (followed by a third out when the batter gets nailed trying to take second amidst the mayhem), yada, yada. Or even the more simple variations like a fielder throwing it away. 

This is from a 2022 chart and I don’t know how much it changes from year to year, but the remaining run expectancy on a) is 1.00; on b) is 1.55 PLUS the run that scored, so 2.55, right? and c) 0.72 (plus the run that is scored, so 1.72?). (And I get that with the way the Twins have hit this year, you have to reduce each of these numbers by roughly half. 😡)

Can you or someone else take it from here? What percentage of the time does a runner need to be safe at home to make it a risk worth taking?

I believe in the contact play if the runner at third has above average speed or better. Raises success rate a lot. If the runner gets a bad jump stop and go back.

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Oops. Typo. Your first one is what my a) was intended to be, which makes me wonder which run expectancy number I quoted. Maybe my brain cramp was because what I typed is what actually DID happen thanks to Lee’s not running.

I hadn’t thought of your second one — that makes sense as well. Probably a little less likely, but very plausible. Thinking of that one, another would be 3B gives up the run, runner realizes he’s going to run into an out and retreats, 3B goes to second to try getting the lead runner, but runner gets back in time. Starting to head towards the esoteric, but it’s at least a little plausible (particularly if the Twins are defense 🤣). 

In all seriousness, these kinds of seemingly innocuous, small mistakes really add up. Particularly in close games....for teams having trouble scoring...

Witness the differences in execution in today's 9th and 10th innings 

[IndianaTwin]

5 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Can I take a crack at it? I think it also comes down to Lee did not advance because he was not expecting France to try to advance. 

The rule of thumb has always been, “If it’s hard hit to the left side of the infield, hold your base until it goes through.” This is how kids have been coached if they are on second or third, no force play, and less than two outs, for hundreds of years. 🙂

So whether Lee missed a sign or France hallucinated a sign that wasn’t there, Lee’s instinct kicked in once the ball was hit, and Lee expected France to stay at third. So, Lee stayed at second.

At this point we can talk about decisions being taken out of players hands since the StatCast era came in, no more two-strike approaches at the plate, no more rogue base stealing or baserunning decisions being made out there (thankfully that is now changing the past couple seasons), but that’s a whole nuther discussion. 

There’s no way France or any other average runner breaks for home on that ground ball on their own accord, 10-15 years ago. 

 

 

I’ll buy this as potential thinking on Lee’s part, particularly as a coach’s kid, though I’d hope that Lee would get off the bag at least far enough to a) draw a throw and get the run or b) be able to break for third as soon as the throw goes home.

Again, I didn’t see it to have a sense of whether that happened. Or whether reactions from players or staff gave any indication toward one of these.  

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Count me in among those that were optimistic about the 2025 Twins. Not sure where I stand right now? Performance is not matching the talent level, especially on offense. What is their identity? Who can they turn to to pick them up and lead them out of this prolonged slump?

Rocco is their identity.  That's not good.

[IndianaTwin]

2 minutes ago, Doc Lenz said:

I believe in the contact play if the runner at third has above average speed or better. Raises success rate a lot. If the runner gets a bad jump stop and go back.

Witness it working recently in a key situation with Buxton on third. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Buxton gets on base to lead off the 9th and watches at least four pitches go by without moving, and then Larnach grounds into a double play.  He needs to be on second base after one pitch.  And then third base after two pitches.  So what if Herrin is a lefty.  That’s his job—he has to steal.

I was thinking the same while listening, though radio guys also talked about the basepaths being greatly slowed down because of all the diamond dust getting dumped on the field. Sounded like it wasn’t a great throw and Bader still got thrown out. 

[einkleinerknabe]

2 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Buxton gets on base to lead off the 9th and watches at least four pitches go by without moving, and then Larnach grounds into a double play.  He needs to be on second base after one pitch.  And then third base after two pitches.  So what if Herrin is a lefty.  That’s his job—he has to steal.

The Twins TV crew was talking about this today. Buxton has never stolen third base in the majors, and has only tried to steal third once (in 2016).

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

Performance IS matching the talent level. That's why most Twins fans were disappointed in the offseason. This team has minimal talent at best. But I keep reading about how much talent we have. Where is it?

Farmer, Kepler, Margo and Santana are gone; Bader, Bride, France and Gasper are here.

Glove losses -  Farmer, Kepler and Santana;  glove equal  replacement - Bader, Bride.

Using bat numbers from this year at this point:

Losses - Farmer, Kepler, Margot ; replacement at least equal - Bader, France, Bride

There is not that big of a difference, the same amount of talent that did quite well till the September collapse which has haunted the Twins for decades -  the Twins veterans are the ones with production problems this year.

 

[Old Crow]

2 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

Rocco

To quote Yogi "deja vu all over again."

[Aggies7]

29 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I’ll buy this as potential thinking on Lee’s part, particularly as a coach’s kid, though I’d hope that Lee would get off the bag at least far enough to a) draw a throw and get the run or b) be able to break for third as soon as the throw goes home.

Again, I didn’t see it to have a sense of whether that happened. Or whether reactions from players or staff gave any indication toward one of these.  

From what I remember, Lee didn’t move at all, never even attempted to break towards third. The third baseman was even with the bag but Lee didn’t seem to move even when it was clear the play was at home. He’s slow so once he hesitated he probably would have been nailed at third had he tried to go. Considering that the twins very frequently run that play, I’m going to guess that Lee missed the sign 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

In all seriousness, these kinds of seemingly innocuous, small mistakes really add up. Particularly in close games....for teams having trouble scoring...

Witness the differences in execution in today's 9th and 10th innings 

And so when you aren’t scoring, you end up taking more risks, like France going on that play because Clemens and Vazquez are coming up…

I’m still too much of an optimist to think they are out of it. I mean, flip even two of the meltdown games from the guy many were seeing as their most dependable reliever and who seems to be getting back on track and they are 15-17 and 4.5 games out. That’s a disappointing start, but has a much different feel (at least to me) than 13-19 and 6.5 out. As someone pointed out, their run differential is actually positive on an offense that has been missing arguably its best hitter (Wallner) and is getting one of their (potentially) best hitters back (hopefully) soon in Lewis, along with a cog that changes the team significantly in going from Clemens to Castro. Check that, going from either Gasper or Bride to Castro because hopefully we’ve already gone from Clemens to Lewis. And you can’t convince me that Correa is a .223 hitter with a .588 OPS.

Conversely, Cleveland is five games over with a run differential that’s negative. I think it’s virtually impossible to play .581 ball with a significant negative run differential, no matter how good your fundamentals are. With the look of their offense and starting staff, I think it’s much more likely the negative run differential is closer to reality than the current record. I’m not saying they are going to finish under .500, but I don’t see how they can be a 95-win team, which is where they are playing. I haven’t seen Detroit, but they at least seem more legit. And Kansas City’s in the midst of a hot streak that teams have all the time, but has needed that to get back to .500. The Twins are 6-4 in the last 10 games and have lost three games in the standings to KC. 

But all that said, they clearly are in a spot where mistakes, bad luck and injuries are compounding. It’s starting to feel a little like the 2016 team, where they went into the season with a reasonable amount of optimism after having finished above .500 with guys like Buxton, Sano, Kepler and Polanco on the horizon and somehow turned it into a 103-loss season. Sometimes you get in a spiral that’s impossible to get out of. 

[nokomismod]

3 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

Performance IS matching the talent level. That's why most Twins fans were disappointed in the offseason. This team has minimal talent at best. But I keep reading about how much talent we have. Where is it?

I see what Langer is saying though. I remember how the team broke out in the summer of 2023 after the All Star Break. Eduard J and Kiriloff looked like future stars and we also had glimpses of Royce Lewis doing things we had never seen. 

I guess we are probably at the point where Larnach, Julien, Wallner, Miranda, Lewis, and maybe Brooks Lee will never be above average long term starters. Man, such a bummer. It reminds me of maybe around 2010 when I thought our starting rotation had just reloaded with 4 or 5 really good long term starters in Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins, Baker, and ? It turned out they were not as good as we were all hoping.

[knothole61]

2 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Single digit steals playing close to 100 games in each of the last three seasons (only 61 games in 2021) while remaining one of the fastest players in baseball actually is kinda wild. 

Kirby, I agree about Buxton as a base thief, and it is really very strange. Keaschall appears to be a better base stealer at this point and he's certainly not as fast as Buxton. Maybe Luke is better able to time his takeoff at the precise moment that the pitcher has reached the point of commitment to throw home. Perhaps Buxton, for all of his obvious athletic ability, just isn't getting the quickest jump at times? I may be way off base (!) but that's my best guess. 

[knothole61]

1 hour ago, einkleinerknabe said:

The Twins TV crew was talking about this today. Buxton has never stolen third base in the majors, and has only tried to steal third once (in 2016).

I think that Buxton has underachieved as a base stealer during his career, but the fact that he's never stolen third probably has more to do with his ability to score so easily from second that it's not really worth the risk in most cases (Manfred Time is an exception) to send him to third. But it's hard to say.... 

[S Bart]

Buxton and Boston's Devers currently are tied for the American League lead in strikeouts. I was in Boston last September, and it was a hideous experience for a Twin's fans. There was a rainout followed by a horrible doubleheader for the twinkies :(

[S Bart]

Below is a copy/paste from a comment that I made last Sunday. As of the end of the games on Thursday night, please note the following: The Twins pitching staff has moved to having the 7th best ERA and the 8th best strikeout record in the MLB. Folks. It does no good when the hitters cannot hit and especially are unable to score with men on base. 

"Well, the pitching staff has the 10th best ERA and 9th highest strikeout total in baseball which is not bad considering their record. "

[Bodie]

5 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

Performance IS matching the talent level. That's why most Twins fans were disappointed in the offseason. This team has minimal talent at best. But I keep reading about how much talent we have. Where is it?

There is talent, but compare it to an old Jaguar car.  The car is undeniably classy, beautiful and downright sexy.  But because of how it was built it is about a 50-50 shot it will break down backing out of the garage!  You knew it when you bought it, but you think "this one will be different".  

Bu in the end, that beautiful Jag acts like it would be expected,  not how we hoped. 

[Mark G]

7 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Only 3 runs on 13 hits?!

My expert opinion: Uffff Daaaahhhh

I would submit it was 2 1/2 runs (I don't give the ghost runners full credit) on 13 hits and 3 walks.  Toss in the 3 doubles and we had, what, 19 total bases?  Or should I add the ghost runner and make it 21? 🙄

I don't dare listen to these guys on the radio because I would want to throw the radio out the window, and I value my radio more than that.  😏

[IndianaTwin]

6 hours ago, knothole61 said:

Kirby, I agree about Buxton as a base thief, and it is really very strange. Keaschall appears to be a better base stealer at this point and he's certainly not as fast as Buxton. Maybe Luke is better able to time his takeoff at the precise moment that the pitcher has reached the point of commitment to throw home. Perhaps Buxton, for all of his obvious athletic ability, just isn't getting the quickest jump at times? I may be way off base (!) but that's my best guess. 

I’ve also argued that Buxton spends comparatively little time on first. He has enough power that people have to play him deep. When they do, there’s an even greater likelihood of him turning singles into doubles.

For comparison, here’s Correa’s spray chart of career doubles. 

He has many more doubles than Buxton because of having 60 percent more plate appearances, but for him to get a double it has to be down line or deep in the gap. 

By comparison, here’s Buxton’s:

Look at how less concentrated on certain areas it is. I especially notice the number of “singles” to short left center that Buxton turned into doubles. 

[Fezig]

10 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

No excuses.  The Guardians just flat out out executed us when it mattered.  Whether it was moving runners over, stealing a base, running the bases, throwing out runners, etc.

Again, it’s not rocket science.  Play a clean game, do the little things better, have strong fundamentals.  The Guardians are just better at those things than the Twins.  Those things matter - a lot! And it’s fairly obvious.  And it’s why they beat us more often (ok, virtually all the time, especially in Cleveland) in close games.  

Rocco Baldelli is the manager. What you're saying is true, but it just won't happen under his watch.